Originally Posted by
Pherst
I think the first issue is that you're talking possibility, not probability.
Probablility suggests that the preceeding events have an impact on subsequent events.
A good example of probability is Texas Hold'em Poker.
With this game, each card you see on the flop, turn, and river (plus what's in your hand) dramatically effects the probability or chance you will get the hand you are looking for. Hence, poker is seen as a game of skill in the sense players need to be able to do the maths on the spot to work out the percentage chance (or probability) of them receiving the desired result and thus betting accordingly/
Conversely, possibility is demonstrated in the game of roulette. Spinning 10 Reds in a row does not suggest a Black is any more likely to come up than Red in the subsequent spins. The preceeding spin has no impact on any future spins (if it did I wouldn't be sitting here typing this). This is what I would liken your bag of marbles to. If you take a marble out, note it's colour, replace it, shake the bag up, and redraw another, the result of this draw is independent from any of the others. The fact you may pull a blue marble several times in a row gives no indication of how many blues are in there as you're consistantly drawing from the same volume of marbles, not eliminating any elements like you can do in poker.
The only thing you can do is make a 'guesstimate' on the results shown, but you can never get to a result with any degree of certainty as no elements are being eliminated from your sample size. All you could ever say with any certainty is the colour you hold in your hand exists in the bag, thus giving you a ratio of at least 99:1 blue vs red or vice-versa.
Hope this helps.