Bet on the line movement, bet on youngest athlete, bet on the most musculars, bet on the black guy, bet on the one with the winning streak or the one with the losing streak, bet whatever you want but the only sure thing is that you are a loser, and you will be a loser till you die unless you start asking yourself and to others some smart questions. I commited myself not to post but this kind of question make me think how easy it has become for the books to make money with all this mentally retarded people unable to integrate an idea trying to make make money out of nothing.
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ughComment -
Well, message in that post is very clear.
No matter what you do you are going to lose b/c you are dealing with something that is smarter than you.
That is pretty much what I've been saying all along.
I'm not calling anyone retarded or stupid or idiot.
All I'm saying that market is smarter than about 985 people out of 1000.
"Smarter" can be substituted for "efficient" if you like. It is the same thing essentially.
The only way for current losers to stop being a loser is to, quoting probettor,
becausestart asking yourself and to others some smart questions.
trying to make make money out of nothing
is just not going to work.
I agree with it completely.Comment -
Given there are like 4 sharps on SBR that post anymore, and there must be thousands of members.... sounds like pretty good odds to meComment -
Again, for close to 99% of market participants reasons the move was initiated are unknown or random.
So for them any line movement IS completely insignificant to market efficiency.
They have no clue what will happen next, after they jumped on board.
So if and when they get lucky and there will be no sudden reversal before close steam chase will work.
But it will work due to simple arithmetic and not because market is predictable or inefficient.
Next time they will see line "steaming" backward after they got invested in a few bets taking all their edge back and then some.
When you beat slow book to the number, that would be another story.
Now we KNOW the reason we got the edge.
But again, it's not because market is inefficient. It is because some nice guys spotted us a few bucks.Comment -
I have no idea what you are laughing at.
I see no contradiction what so ever.
Random (unpredictable) nature of future events is one of the reasons why markets are efficient.
Take this randomness away using inside information and/or manipulation and you have an edge, i.e. market is not efficient (for you) anymore.Comment -
Here's a hypothetical:
You don't know the sport, other than it has limits of at least $3k on game day at some popular books. On a moneyline, there is a big move; at least 5% in favor of player A, against player B.
Knowing nothing else, if you HAD to place a moneyline bet on that match (and similar different matches going forward), which would be best (or suck the least)
A. Chase steam on A
B. Fade steam on B
C. It doesn't matter, there is not enough information.Comment -
As given, for me it is C.
But let's bring another hypothetical in.
Let's say my dog was playing at my desk and somehow managed to place a bet on A at 50% implied (let's not get juice involved for the sake of a conversation)
I came back saw the bet and saw the lucky move on A to 55% implied.
Now I would immediately place another bet on A at those odds.
I need to know nothing or handicap anything.
Market did not become inefficient either.
It is a purely trading decision in a random environment.
I'm steam chasing.
With 2nd bet my implied goes to 52.5 and I have an edge for now.
If line will go to 60 I'll buy some more making my implied 55.
If market closes at 62 I just BTCL silly. If it stops at 58 I'm OK too.
If market goes back at 55 at any given point I'll get out (take another side).
Not getting out at 55 would be a cardinal sin.
Extremely simplified? Absolutely.
That how it works in a nutshell? Yes.
Will it works at 20c book? in most cases NO.Last edited by hutennis; 09-16-12, 10:46 PM.Comment -
Yes, market moves but not because of line movement.
It moves b/c of decisions made by however many participants it takes to move it.
Those decisions made based on individual, and, collectively, random reasons of those participants.
When enough decisions are made and enough bets are placed line moves.
For some, this move may become a reason in and of itself to make make a decision to bet.
If enough of those decisions are made line (market) will move again.
For some the second move will become a reason to place a bet in a opposite side.
If those bets are large enough, you will see line (market) moving to square one.
Unless you are in some way front running the money flow, you have no way of predicting this random process.Comment -
Who said the move was random?
Reasons for that move and timing when those reasons manifest itself are random making move unpredictable.
There is a big difference there.
But once I see DB screen going to -120 and one momandpop pinnaclecoping book still at -110, that's it. It's done.
There is nothing random here. Why? Because I deal with something that already happened. There is no unpredictable, random past.
I simply make an executive decision, based on available information, to consider DB number to be correct and sleeping beauty number to be wrong. I don't predict. I react.
Will it be a good assumption?
If I make this assumption 100 times, how often will I be wrong and will I have the best of it on average?Comment -
If you can't predict which way a line will go at any point in time, steam chasing is profitable and it is profitable because the line at pinnacle at time t is a bettor predictor of the closer at time t+1 than the line at time t-1. And the closer is the best predictor of the game's outcome.
The only way you can disagree is if you think after a steam move there is a significantly greater than 50% chance that the line returns to the old line rather than keeps increasing. But this contradicts the first statement I made in italics, and implies you should always fade steam immediately. Good luck with that.Comment -
Yeah, it is amazing how many people have a seriose problem grasping a very simple concept. Everything that already known has very, very little to no value at all b/c price (odds) is already adjusted to reflect this known information.
What's more, it's only seems to be the case when it comes to numbers.
With injures or whether, for example, people have no problem using common sense.
If I would post something like this
"Lebron sprained his ankle yesterday and not going to play today.
Right now Boston is +180 and it is a great value. Without James it should be
+110!"
I would be luaghed at hard and immediatly corrected
"Every one knows that and curent price +180 is alredy adjusted for Lebron not playing. If he woold play Price would have been +300"
But when it comes to some kind of correlation/pattern people discovered in a past data, they just refuse to apply the same logic.
They love and charish their "discovery" so much that they simply don't want to eccept a fact that there is 99.999% chance this correlation has already been discovered by betting public and thus current price reflects it and does not allow for any additional value to be extracted.Last edited by hutennis; 09-17-12, 01:27 PM.Comment -
Can everyone just stop responding to this idiot's nonsense? He just says the same ignorant, useless things over and over again.
There is no reason for him to be here in the first place. Nothing works. That's his entire story. Great. GTFO then.Comment -
A lot of things work really great.
What not supposed to work is not working.
And I really like to know what out of what I'm saying is not true.
Can you argue one point intelligently without all this frustrated hate?Comment -
Researching and finding out why the line moved in the favor would also work. Could be player "B" has an illness. Or tweaked a hamstring in the last match, but I personally would not chase or fade steam until I did some research into why it moved. Knowing WHY the line moves will only make you that much better of a capper.If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
That post is designed to ridicule and piss me off so don't even try to decipher it.
As to your point, you don't need to predict anything.
You simply need to participate in a favorable move and dollar cost averaging (arithmetic) will get you in the money.
The trick is how to deal with reversals.
Whipsaw action will give you a lot of headache very often since one-directional moves are low probability events
(50*50*50*....).
So you need to be ready to be pretty smart about a lot of things and break even, lose small/win small a lot to be able not to end up with huge -EV position before you hit your lucky run.
You know, just good old trading exercise.
I'm positive it will not work in a traditional 20c book either.Last edited by hutennis; 09-17-12, 05:51 PM.Comment -
While I agree with your statement this is much more complicated than individual players. Yes, an individual player can cause a line to move....
If you were to break down the actual number of line moves and the number of line moves being caused by an individual player I believe it would be a small correlation (unless we are talking about an individual sport like tennis obviously) and in general I doubt it is a profitable angle. There are definitely books will just kick you out for having information before them....
Now it is my understanding that most would agree that line moves are caused by either a sharp player betting something or a large amount of money being placed on something. Now the reasons for these individual bets are/can/could be impossible to figure out, hence one can not figure out "why" exactly the line moved.
One obvious reason for a line move that is known by many people is RAS putting out a play. That causes a line move.
Also, in the past (future?) it is said there have been certain people/groups that have put in their bets at specific times of the day and one could then follow their plays.....Comment
