Do line movements predict anything?

[LT Profits]

I doubt that.



Huh.

Who has moire efficient closers than Pinnacle?

Also, are you disputing that you are virtually guranteed to win if you consistently beat closers? Keep in mind this is assuming an efficient market.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Pinny is a betting syndicate. A bunch of sharp guys who have a strong opinion on many games, and get the bets they want at ~ +105 instead of paying the juice elsewhere.

If they have no opinion they might try to balance the action, but that is not standard. Try moving the line with a very high bet on a major sport, and you might see the number moving against you.

No, the market balances the action. If they don't move their line and there is value on a particular side, they will be pounded on that side from sharps all over the world.

[Pancho sanza]

Who has moire efficient closers than Pinnacle?

Also, are you disputing that you are virtually guranteed to win if you consistently beat closers? Keep in mind this is assuming an efficient market.

not all closers are priced efficiently.

This is where a sharp player can prosper, picking off those lines that are weak.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Who has moire efficient closers than Pinnacle?

Also, are you disputing that you are virtually guranteed to win if you consistently beat closers? Keep in mind this is assuming an efficient market.

I think he's saying that it may be possible to bet closers and win. Granted, it would need to be selective. RLM is a good indication of that. Sometimes a heavy majority may be on a particular side, outweighing or balancing action of sharps who are finding value on the opposite side.

[Casi]

MF i know that Pinny is a betting syndicate, just ask any insider like JC.
And as such they don´t mind 1 sided action if it fits their opinion of the game.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Then why would they ever move their line?

[LT Profits]

Of course not ALL closers are effiicient and the weaker ones can be beat, but my argument is that Pinny closers are the MOST efficent, meaning they have much fewer weak closers than most.

[Casi]

Greeks NBA lines are one of the sharpest...yes it´s hard to compare coz they are -110, but still.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The Greek is another high volume book... It's not hard to compare. You calculate the no-vig line.

[Casi]

Example: NBA 2nd half, Greek and Bookmaker open at o/u 90...Pinny opens at 89 and the line keeps moving until it ends up at 88.

No way Pinny was looking for balanced action here, they gambled on the under.
All the arbers/guys who want to roll over bonuses at other books took the over at > +110 ofc.
Happened all the time late in the season.

[LT Profits]

Halftime lines should be easier to beat in general though, because they are not nearly as efficient as game lines or even as efficient as first half lines that were up all day.

[Wrecktangle]

Do line movements predict anything? : Yes, but usually you are too late in the steam cycle to get much use out of it unless you are really, really on top of things.

[Dark Horse]

This message has self-destructed.

[reno cool]

It all depends on WHEN you bet the Pinny numbers. Of course you would be up at Pinny if you bet there early and the line moves further amd you beat their closing number. If you are saying you consistently bet Pinny at closing or close to closing and you are up there over a year and a half, then I'd say you are fulll of shit.

NOBODY can show a profit by consistently betting Pinny closers, as those are probably the most efficient numbers in the world.

sure, you win if you beat the closing number consistently. But in no way does that equate to the notion that you can't have positive expectancy if you bet closers or on avg do not beat the closer.
If you're better than the market or whoever makes the line move the opposite is likely to be true and you'd be better off betting closers.

[MrX]

NOBODY can show a profit by consistently betting Pinny closers, ...

This is just not true. The market, even Pinny closers, is just not THAT efficient. There are multiple MLB Pinny closing lines a day that have value.

[Bsims]

When I started this thread, I said I would share some results. First off the methodology. I have past MLB lines from 2001 and 2006, gathered from a variety of sources over the years. These were classified as "Opening" or "Closing" lines. These aren't necessarily true opens or closes, but the opens were lines from early in the day and the close are from late in the days. I only kept the lines that had reasonable data. This resulted in over 2000 games each year and a total of 13,326 games. I did look at these by season, but am only going to discuss the totals finding to save time and space.

I categorized line movements as "to Vis" or "toHom" based on the movement. I segmented these into movements of 10-50 cents and under 10 cents. I compared the winning percentages of these games to the overall winning percentage for all the games.

There were 2024 movements "toVis" between 10 and 50 cents. In these games the vistors won 50.7% of the games versus 46.3% of all games. This was an increase of 4.4%.

There wer 2320 movements "toHom" between 10 and 50 cents. In these games the home team won 56.7% of the games versus 53.7% of all games. This was an increase of 3.1%.

So, movement in lines does somewhat predict the outcome to the game. But, because the lines moved, there was no profitablilty in betting the new lines based on movement. Had you bet $100 on the closing lines you would have lost $1665 on visitor bets and $8216 on home team bets (usually home teams were favored). Had you faded the line movement, you would have lost $9112 on visitor bets (you bet on the home team) and lost $5483 on the home movements.

I did look at movements of less than 10 cents and found the winning percentage improved of 1.1% versus 3-4% on movements over 10 cents. So the more the movement the more likely it's in the right direction.

Any suprises in these results? I don't think so.

[Justin7]

It all depends on WHEN you bet the Pinny numbers. Of course you would be up at Pinny if you bet there early and the line moves further amd you beat their closing number. If you are saying you consistently bet Pinny at closing or close to closing and you are up there over a year and a half, then I'd say you are fulll of shit.

NOBODY can show a profit by consistently betting Pinny closers, as those are probably the most efficient numbers in the world.

Weird things happen at Pinnacle. I think their lines 15 minutes before gametime are sharp. Any movements after that, you can ignore.

When the Taiwanese start firing on a game before post, it is NOT sharp and they can move the line 15 cents.

A few years ago, my group heavily used the closing Pinny lean to pick off Vegas books in foots. We must have lost 50 units on scalpable numbers just playing the Vegas side, and passing on Pinny.

Their numbers, especially closers, are no where near as sharp as they used to be. Greek and Cris, and Hilton in Vegas have the sharpest numbers.

[dmolition]

Please define "consistently" beating the closing line please?
if i track all my bets over a 10K sample of plays and compare the number i get with pinnys closing line (or is it better and average nowadays of pinny-greek-cris vrs. my number?) and find that i beat the closing line 51% of the time, is this consider consistently??

What is a good percentage to beat the closing line over a good sample size, anything above 50%??

If pinnys line arent the sharpest now adays what do you use to compare your bets? averages ?

[Justin7]

Please define "consistently" beating the closing line please?
if i track all my bets over a 10K sample of plays and compare the number i get with pinnys closing line (or is it better and average nowadays of pinny-greek-cris vrs. my number?) and find that i beat the closing line 51% of the time, is this consider consistently??

What is a good percentage to beat the closing line over a good sample size, anything above 50%??

If pinnys line arent the sharpest now adays what do you use to compare your bets? averages ?

I would define "market closing line" as the average no-vig line of Pinny, Cris and Greek. If a game closes at -104/-104, -120/+100, -115/-105, the novig averages (simplified appraoch) were +100, -110 and -105, for an average of -105.

If a bet on that market was at -103, you probably have at least a 1% edge. If you made 10k bets like this, you're probably up between 100-200 units. 100 is obvious; the 200 number is much more complex to explain.

[dmolition]

OK so if i understand correctly beating the closing(or average market no-vig closing line) line 51% percent of the time would make you a winning and very profitable player over the long run? with just a 1% edge, correct?

I use the pinnys no-vig closing line on MLB to compare my numbers but i think i have to start using the average no-vig closing line then to get a more accurate edge %.

Is pinny sharp enough for MLB to compare?
what are the sharpest book for any given sports?
NCAAF
NCAAB
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB?

Thanks again.

[Casi]

Not the closing line is the sharpest, but the line that is up most of the day...after the busy morning hours.
don´t know who came up with this closing line fairy tale, but it´s funny to see how many fall for it.

[Justin7]

Not the closing line is the sharpest, but the line that is up most of the day...after the busy morning hours.
don´t know who came up with this closing line fairy tale, but it´s funny to see how many fall for it.

I did, back when I wrote the "Pinnacle Pulse" 3-4 years ago. It's no fairy tale.

[Casi]

I don´t see why it would be sharper then the line, that was up before the moving on late action started.

[Dark Horse]

I did, back when I wrote the "Pinnacle Pulse" 3-4 years ago. It's no fairy tale.

You wrote the Pinnacle Pulse?! lol There was a definite drop-off in the quality of the PP in recent years (I joked about it here). Must have been after you left... How did you get so closely connected with Pinny?

===========================

In cases where the Pinny line closed at least 1 pt from the opening line, a bet on the total for the present NBA playoffs is 8-0. This means that the betting public was sharper than the books. A similar situation was in place at the start of the NCAAB tournament in March. However, the books catch up fast...! How fast can be measured from the action points. The gap between closing line and end result was >10 pts average for the three games played on 4/18, and has dramatically narrowed since. Yesterday, the over for the Denver game hit, but only beat the closing line by 0.5 pt. As such, I would consider the angle as good as dead; for the time being. People who jump on the bandwagon now are probably the ones who will pay back the books.

Instead of blindly following a line movement, it is better to ask what causes it. The advantage of basketball totals is that the books rarely move the line enough to change the play. They signal the play, until their lines are more accurate. Books may not worry too much, because people will continue to bet the 'system' without realizing that the edge is gone.

==========================

[losturmarbles]

...

Their numbers, especially closers, are no where near as sharp as they used to be. Greek and Cris, and Hilton in Vegas have the sharpest numbers.

what about the M resort? anybody have an opinion to the sharpness of their lines? don't they usually have vegas openers there even before cris offshore?

[Justin7]

what about the M resort? anybody have an opinion to the sharpness of their lines? don't they usually have vegas openers there even before cris offshore?

The "M" is very green. There is free money to be had, but they'll learn so get it now.

[ico2525]

I like the M. I live 3 minutes away. From my house it's a straight shot west down St. Rose. I can't give you much info on long term stuff as the place has only been open for a month, and I have only been there a couple times. It's a nice, elegant place.

[JohnnyB1983]

How did you get so closely connected with Pinny?

I am interested in hearing this as well.

[Justin7]

How did you get so closely connected with Pinny?

It was almost an accident involving Arena football, props, Fezzik and math. Please don't ask me anything else about Pinny.

[MonkeyF0cker]

what about the M resort? anybody have an opinion to the sharpness of their lines? don't they usually have vegas openers there even before cris offshore?

They've been pretty soft so far actually. I would imagine that will be changing though. They offer live betting there too. One of the few casinos here that does...

[Dark Horse]

It was almost an accident involving Arena football, props, Fezzik and math. Please don't ask me anything else about Pinny.

[losturmarbles]

thanks justin, ico2525, & monkey for the input

[JohnnyB1983]

It was almost an accident involving Arena football, props, Fezzik and math. Please don't ask me anything else about Pinny.

Is it safe you assume you bet for a living justin?

[Justin7]

Is it safe you assume you bet for a living justin?

Gambling (including both sports and cards) is my primary income. I am a licensed lawyer, and I sue recreationally, but on referral only (I do not advertise). I also have done consultant work for individuals, casinos and sportsbooks.

If a player/group finds a new casino game, I'll analyze it for "free", as long as I can have a piece of the group's win/loss if I come up with a winning strategy. I have to know the group, obviously, to take a blind piece based on what they tell me.

5 days before my wedding, I got "called in" to a casino in Oklahoma - there was a Blackjack game with a 2% edge just flat betting. My group needed another scout, since the primary scout got tossed in 30 minutes. I was a bit pissed at first - getting called at 2am, catching a 10am flight 2 hours away for what was likely a trap... I scouted, and played for 3 days before getting the posse of "men in black" escorting me out. 20 hours of play, $500 flat betting, 100 hands/hour (slow game)... You do the math.

Catching opportunities like that is why networking is so key. I've made a small fortune from other people's ideas, including posters at SBR.

[reno cool]

sounds like 20k...expected anyway. I had a similar experience with a table game,but had to discover it myself.
My favorite thing in gambling...finding a play that no one knows about.