Do line movements predict anything?

[blackbart]

"I am a licensed lawyer, and I sue recreationally, but on referral only (I do not advertise)."
classic

[Munson15]

Yes. I have been crushing MLB so far this season by following ML movement. I pick a game where the line has moved more than 20 cents and bet against that movement. A good example would be last night's Astro's game. The line moved 40 cents from +120 to +160. Houston won by 3. I'm 11-1.

I used that formula last year and tracked hundreds of games that moved 20 cents<. End result was no edge either way.

[arwar]

don best premium has tons of opening/closing, by book.

I can't find it on any of the Don Best pages - is it on the pay side? Where can I get this data in a file?

[PickingPros]

When the line moves, it is really only indicative that the team the line is moving towards is more popular in the opinion of the betting public. The line is moving to cover an uneven amount of bets towards the team the line is moving towards.

SO you could either take it as a consensus pick that everyone likes that team to win (Mainly amateur bettors and hobbyists), or jsut realize that action was uneven and take advantage of it appropriately.

Also, Underdog lines generally get better as the weeks goes on, and favorites tend to swell their line, Bet favorites early and underdogs late. (With Exceptions)

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Yeah, it points to who's gonna win. 75% of the time.

It's the books adjusting to the wise guys/ aka the last minute betters. I am buying Sportsbook!!

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Real quick:

In a dead game, where you don't have a clue whos gonna win and nobody really knows. Like a diamondbacks game or an obscure wnba or college game, that list minute shift... Oh man... It points to who's gonna win. 80% maybe, well 70%.

Sometimes though, if it's a high profile game. A total will go up from like 10 (which is already too high cuz the game just isn't lively) to 10.5 bet on the under (again)... In this case, everyone's wrong.

The difference is in the visibiltiy and the total handle of the game.

[Joe Dogs]

This might be a dumb question but here it goes.You see a line of +130/-140 with a couple of cent differential by all the books on the board.Then you look at matchbook and the line pops +130/-185 worst number on the board for the chalk.Would this mean a buy signal for the the side that is still -140 at all other books.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Yeah, if its gonna win.

W/o further info, i would take the dog. +130/-140??? That says duh, take the dog. Small play.

[LT Profits]

As I have said many times, line movement only becomes meaningful when used in combination with the betting percentages by the public on the games. Reverse line movement is a clear indication of sharp money.

[Joe Dogs]

cube Why would you take the dog when matchbook is telling you there getting so much action on the fav that they have to jack the line to -185.I have seen this quite a few times at matchy,when ever there line was totaly out of whack for a side compared to other books it turned out the over inflated side was the winner.Matchy has one cent lines.when thereline of +130/-131 goes to +130/-185 there telling you they dont want any more action on the fav.

[head_strong]

I would say yes, but more in the lines that start small then go up by 35% or more.....not so much the smaller movements.....

[LT Profits]

I would say yes, but more in the lines that start small then go up by 35% or more.....not so much the smaller movements.....

But if you wait to bet until the line has already moved 35%, you already missed the boat. The goal should always be to beat the closing line.

[MartinBlank]

I agree with LT.

You want to buy the line at its best value, which may not neccessarily mean the closing line.

By example. There was a significant difference at buying Google stock at 114 as opposed to its closing ISO of 389.

You want to be the guy buying at 114.

[RudyRuetigger]

Weird things happen at Pinnacle. I think their lines 15 minutes before gametime are sharp. Any movements after that, you can ignore.

When the Taiwanese start firing on a game before post, it is NOT sharp and they can move the line 15 cents.

A few years ago, my group heavily used the closing Pinny lean to pick off Vegas books in foots. We must have lost 50 units on scalpable numbers just playing the Vegas side, and passing on Pinny.

Their numbers, especially closers, are no where near as sharp as they used to be. Greek and CRIS, and Hilton in Vegas have the sharpest numbers.

How can the closer be the most efficient number, yet 15 minutes before it is when the sharpest number is possible?

Wouldn't it be easy to just make plays after this "Tiawanese" steam comes in? Would be 15 minutes worth of work for beating the "true" line.

Also what do you believe to be the sharpest nfl (actually football not just nfl) book now? did betonline replace greek???

[mathdotcom]

It's a head scratching post Rudy

[339955]

mathdotcom, rudy...

when you develop a model and you start betting it on pinnacle, how much do you like the pinnacle line to move with you until closing, on average, for you to be satisfied your model is profitable?

[FreeFall]

But if you wait to bet until the line has already moved 35%, you already missed the boat. The goal should always be to beat the closing line.

I know I'm being the asshole here, but like anything there are caveats. I don't think obama to pick his asshole market with $50 limits will be a good closing line to compare to. But I know you were referring to the larger market sports with limits 5000+

[statictheory]

As I have said many times, line movement only becomes meaningful when used in combination with the betting percentages by the public on the games. Reverse line movement is a clear indication of sharp money.

This might have to change a bit as books are moving the juice more and more heavily. So if i see a sharp book moving the juice heavily
while the line is wa elsewhere for normal or discounted juice, Ill bet it and feel I'm beating the closing line.

[RudyRuetigger]

I know nothing about models, and don't pretend to.

I would like to know the most efficient number in football betting though, which is why I bumped the thread.

[MonkeyF0cker]

[Goat Milk]

I've often wonder if line movements tell us much of anything? There seems to be two schools of thought here.

1-Line movement toward one team (some call it steam) is indicative that that team is more likely to win. This is consistent with the efficient market concept where the opinions of the general public collectively are pretty good indicators.

2-Some people are in the contrarian mode, feeling the public is generally wrong and one should go against line movement.

I am interested in baseball money lines in particular, and have some past data that I'm going to analyze. This data has "opening" and "closing" lines for about a six year period. I'm going to look at this to see if significant movement in one direction tells us anything about who is likely to win the game. And more importantly, what does that say about which way to wager.

I'm posting this for two reasons. The first one is curiosity. What do you guys think I'll find?

Secondly, as I do the analysis, I will likely post some raw results in hopes that someone may interpret them differently than I do.

If any of these were true, at least 50% of guys on SBR could be pro gamblers.

[chilidog]

My vote is for no, line movements don't tell you anything.

[zorba74]

Justin7 said:

"I would define "market closing line" as the average no-vig line of Pinny, Cris and Greek. If a game closes at -104/-104, -120/+100, -115/-105, the novig averages (simplified appraoch) were +100, -110 and -105, for an average of -105."

Pardon my ignorance but how did he come up with these no-vig averages? I believe I understand how he go the first two but I am unsure of how he came up with a -105 no-vig line for the -115/-105 example.

Any help understanding this would be appreciated.

Thank you.

[mathdotcom]

Justin7 said:

"I would define "market closing line" as the average no-vig line of Pinny, Cris and Greek. If a game closes at -104/-104, -120/+100, -115/-105, the novig averages (simplified appraoch) were +100, -110 and -105, for an average of -105."

Pardon my ignorance but how did he come up with these no-vig averages? I believe I understand how he go the first two but I am unsure of how he came up with a -105 no-vig line for the -115/-105 example.

Any help understanding this would be appreciated.

Thank you.

It doesn't make sense so just ignore

[LT Profits]

Justin7 said:

"I would define "market closing line" as the average no-vig line of Pinny, Cris and Greek. If a game closes at -104/-104, -120/+100, -115/-105, the novig averages (simplified appraoch) were +100, -110 and -105, for an average of -105."

Pardon my ignorance but how did he come up with these no-vig averages? I believe I understand how he go the first two but I am unsure of how he came up with a -105 no-vig line for the -115/-105 example.

Any help understanding this would be appreciated.

Thank you.

He meant -110, which isn't accurate either but he DID say (simplified approach).

[mathdotcom]

How long will it take you to drive from San Antonio to Miami if you move at 50mph?

Assume your car can fly (simplified approach), divide 1146mi by 50mph and we arrive at our answer of 23 hours.

Sometimes a simplified approach is so simple it's useless.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Justin7 said:

"I would define "market closing line" as the average no-vig line of Pinny, Cris and Greek. If a game closes at -104/-104, -120/+100, -115/-105, the novig averages (simplified appraoch) were +100, -110 and -105, for an average of -105."

Pardon my ignorance but how did he come up with these no-vig averages? I believe I understand how he go the first two but I am unsure of how he came up with a -105 no-vig line for the -115/-105 example.

Any help understanding this would be appreciated.

Thank you.

115/215 = 53.48837%
105/205 = 51.21951%

0.5348837/(0.5348837 + 0.5121951) = 51.08342% = -104.43

[zorba74]

Thank you all for responding to my post. I originally agreed with LT, that he meant -110 but after reviewing Monkey's post, I lean toward Monkey's -104.43.

Fellas, did he mean -110 or -105 (-104.43 rounded up)?

Also, Monkey, why are you dividing 0.5348837 by the sum of 0.5348837 and 0.5121951?

Thank you.

[LT Profits]

Thank you all for responding to my post. I originally agreed with LT, that he meant -110 but after reviewing Monkey's post, I lean toward Monkey's -104.43.

Fellas, did he mean -110 or -105 (-104.43 rounded up)?

Also, Monkey, why are you dividing 0.5348837 by the sum of 0.5348837 and 0.5121951?

Thank you.

Oh monkey is definitely right, I was merely pointing out that Justin meant to say -110. And for the -120/+100, the true no-vig line is -109.1.

[zorba74]

Gotcha LT, thanks for clearing that up as I am easily confused

Using the formula I just learned form Monkey, I reverse engineered the -109.1% true no-vig line you shared with me.

120/220 = 54.5%
100/200 = 50%

0.545 / (.545 + .50) = 52.15% = -109

I know the formula know but not why are we dividing .545 by the sum of (.545 + .50). Can you share the logic behind it?

[LT Profits]

54.5 + 50 = 104.5%, so vig is 4.5%. So when you divide by sum, you are pro-rating over 100%, ergo no-vig

[Monte]

How can the closer be the most efficient number, yet 15 minutes before it is when the sharpest number is possible?

Wouldn't it be easy to just make plays after this "Tiawanese" steam comes in? Would be 15 minutes worth of work for beating the "true" line.

Also what do you believe to be the sharpest nfl (actually football not just nfl) book now? did betonline replace greek???

No it's true, you can sometimes easily find out as well.
Look at places like Matchbook, if big amounts counter Pinny's moving lines in the last 15mins or so, i know for sure that Pinny is not moving "sharp".
I'd say MB offers are sharper overall.

[zorba74]

LT,

Roger that. Much appreciated.

[wenger10]

was thinking the same but seems to be turnovers,third down conversions, forgot the 3rd of course theres other things to consider but for modeling purposes these are the most popular can someone clue me in on the 3rd ? I bet soccer usually so not to familiar with football modeling.

[wtt0315]

no. its just like betting the favorite in horse racing. you are only following what everyone esle things