Posted odds - perhaps misleading?

[BigCap]

Let's say a fairly large book ($100,000,000 in assets) is posting an 8 cent line on an event that they figure is 50/50 home and away. Also, they have good reason to believe the home team will get slightly more action, perhaps 52% to 48%, with about $100,000 total wagered. They also have good reason to believe that if they post any dog line on the away team, syndicates will jump in and bet heavy on the dog.

What line should the book post? I would guess that favoring the home team more than pick would drive away some of their action, perhaps 0.5% for each 1c of the line move. But I was curious if the book would shade the line toward the favorite regardless, maybe -105/-103 or -106/-102. Interested in other people's views here on the subject. Thank you.

[Peep]

If the book BELIEVES the game is 50/50, as you state, I think they would post to balance action, why not? Safest and most profitable over the long term. Sometimes the squares win, sometimes the sharps win, every dog has his day. But 108 is always bigger than 100.

[Dark Horse]

I don't know how heavily syndicates could bet the opening line. There is a period for the line to settle before the limit comes off. By that time the book has seen what the other main books are posting, and can take that into consideration with regards to how it positions its line.

[BigCap]

If the book BELIEVES the game is 50/50, as you state, I think they would post to balance action, why not? Safest and most profitable over the long term. Sometimes the squares win, sometimes the sharps win, every dog has his day. But 108 is always bigger than 100.

So I guess to balance the action you would post something like -108/-100? This makes sense because -100 would still not draw the syndicates in as they would not perceive any value.

[BigCap]

I don't know how heavily syndicates could bet the opening line. There is a period for the line to settle before the limit comes off. By that time the book has seen what the other main books are posting, and can take that into consideration with regards to how it positions its line.

I guess my example would not have any opening limits, so the sharps could hammer at +101 as much as they wanted.

[Dark Horse]

You have argued convincingly for why books do have limits on opening lines.

[BigCap]

You have argued convincingly for why books do have limits on opening lines.

This example need not be an opening line. It could be after openers that reflect 52/48 percent betting flow on the home team the night before at -104/-104. So the book is confronted with an expectation of continued 52/48 action shading the home team, with typical high limit action accepted.

It sounds like something around -106/-102 to -108/-100 would work best for the book, so they do their best to split action and discourage the syndicate action which would come in at +101 or better.

I guess this means that a posted line of -106/-102 may not reflect the book's belief of the teams' true chances of winning, but instead an indication of betting flow, sharp or not.

[GoodOldTed]

opinions in US sports are over-rated, simply because the market dictates what the odds will be. Move the odds a couple of pennies and you get massive buyback from the scalpers (the Pinnacle model). If you have an opinion, you put a little bit in the bag early, and then trade it to balance the rest of the action. Who's to know what number the syndicates will come in at? But you can easily see what number the scalpers will take...

[BigCap]

opinions in US sports are over-rated, simply because the market dictates what the odds will be. Move the odds a couple of pennies and you get massive buyback from the scalpers (the Pinnacle model). If you have an opinion, you put a little bit in the bag early, and then trade it to balance the rest of the action. Who's to know what number the syndicates will come in at? But you can easily see what number the scalpers will take...

Would not Pinnacle have a pretty good idea the true odds of an event? If they don't I would think they are just opening themselves up to massive syndicate/scalper play. Also, I understand books like Pinnacle will intentionally not try to split action 50/50 if they have a belief the line that splits the action does not match the true odds. Shouldn't this keep the syndicates/scalpers away?