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Players to consider in MLB fantasy tonight Friday 5/10
Catchers
Top Value Play
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - Montero is at home in his favorable hitter's park facing Tyler Cloyd who had a 5.25 FIP in 6 MLB starts last year and had a 4.26 FIP in 6 AAA starts this year. In those six starts last year, Cloyd was absolutely awful against LHB allowing a whopping .422 wOBA and 2.84 HR/9. The sample size is very small but with Montero at home, super cheap on sites and posting a .366 wOBA against RHP the past few seasons, it's tough to pass on him as today's top value play at catcher.
Value Plays
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) - Lucroy, at least on sites that don't price for splits, is an extremely strong value play today. Opposing pitcher Tony Cingrani has been awesome, but he has also shown to be very FB risky (48.1 FB%) as a lot of power pitchers are. With the game taking place in Cincinnati and Lucroy hitting .332/.372/.578 against southpaws since 2011, there is plenty of upside here.
Victor Martinez/Alex Avila (DET) - Martinez missed all of 2012 but his combined 2011 and 2013 wOBA against RHP is .352 which is solid. Likewise Avila has a solid wOBA since 2011 (.368) against RHP, and his comes with a bit more power than Martinez's (.199 ISO). Both look like solid value plays tonight against Corey Kluber who has allowed a .360 wOBA to LHB including .94 HR/9 and a whopping 24.1% LD rate.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (BOS) - Be prepared to see a ton of Red Sox hitters listed today as they have to be the highest projected scoring team going up against Ramon Ortiz (nearly 40 YO) who should get hit hard in Fenway Park. For his career Ortiz has allowed a .368 wOBA to LHB and 1.82 HR/9 with a tiny 10.9 K%. I have to imagine at this point his skills are even worse than when he compiled those numbers which are among the worst of any SP in action today. Salty is much better from the left side of the plate, posting an impressive .245 ISO since 2011.
First Base
Top Play
David Ortiz (BOS) - I would have a tough time not squeezing Ortiz in everywhere tonight. I listed opposing pitcher Ramon Ortiz's dreadful numbers just up above in Salty's blurb, and Ortiz had a 1.104 OPS at home against RHP in 2012 and a .945 OPS in that situation in 2011.
Other Top Plays
Prince Fielder (DET) - As mentioned before, Kluber gives up really strong contact to LHB (.360 wOBA, 24.1% LD rate allowed), and Fielder should be able to take advantage of this today. Fielder has an awesome 1.021 OPS against RHP the last few seasons.
Joey Votto (CIN) - Votto faces the best SP of the recommended 1B plays in Yovani Gallardo, but Gallardo is still just mediocre at getting LHB out, allowing a .328 wOBA, 22.4% LD rate and an 11.2 HR/FB rate. With those numbers, Gallardo may have a tough time dealing with Votto in Cincinnati where he has a career .951 OPS and .248 ISO at home against RHP.
Mike Napoli (BOS) - Ramon Ortiz isn't as terrible against RHB, but he is still pretty bad - allowing a .329 wOBA and 1.23 HR/9 for his career. Again, those numbers likely overstate his current skill set. Napoli has no problem facing same handed pitchers, posting a .402 wOBA against RHP from 2011-present with a .280 ISO that actually matches Ortiz's over that span.
I love the matchups for all four of these top 1B so I think the best way to approach today is to spend on one of these four guys, which is why I don't have any cheaper value plays listed like I normally do.
Second Base
Top Play
Ian Kinsler (TEX) - Kinsler is likely expensive, but if you have the room he is the best 2B play. The one team that might compete with Boston in terms of run scoring today is the Rangers facing Dallas Keuchel who has a career 5.22 ERA and 5.75 FIP. In particular, Keuchel gives up big numbers to RHB (.373 wOBA, 1.57 HR/9 allowed) and the Rangers have a bunch of RHB that can do damage against southpaws. That includes Kinsler who has a .900 OPS and .390 wOBA against LHP from 2011-present.
Other Strong Plays
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - He is facing Ramon Ortiz. Really don't know what else to say.
Ben Zobrist (TB) - Zobrist is matched up against the wild Edinson Volquez who I envision having troubles against an AL team. Volquez has allowed a .339 wOBA to LHB walking them 14.9% of the time. Look for the patient Zobrist (13.8 BB% against RHP) to be a safe bet to reach base tonight.
High Risk Cheaper Option
Rickie Weeks (MIL) - Weeks is liable to strike out a few times today against the high K rate rookie Cingrani. However, in an extreme hitter's park facing an extreme fly ball pitcher, Weeks certainly has some upside. He has a .346 wOBA from 2011-present against southpaws.
Shortstop
Value Plays
Didi Gregorius (ARZ) - I think Gregorius may be overhyped as a fantasy asset in season long leagues, but he is a good value play today in daily fantasy, especially on sites that are slow to adjust their salaries. He is in his favorable home park and likely hitting second against Tyler Cloyd who as I stated before has been absolutely awful in a limited sample size against LHB.
Elvis Andrus (TEX) - Andrus is moderately priced on most sites, and hitting second for the Rangers I expect him to be a part of some run scoring plays. I'm not the biggest Andrus fan (just a .305 wOBA against LHP last few years), but his lineup spot, opposing pitcher (.373 wOBA allowed to RHB) and the rest of the SS position being poor as usual should leave him as one of the better SS value plays.
Starlin Castro (CHC) - Castro is off to a very disappointing start, but he is cheap as a result on a lot of sites. Plus, I like him to be on track today against LHP Ross Detwiler. Castro has an okay .336 wOBA against LHP driven by a .305 BA. Meanwhile, Detwiler has allowed a .326 wOBA to RHB, striking out just 13.9% of them.
Jhonny Peralta (DET) - Peralta is cheap and facing Corey Kluber who has allowed a .335 wOBA and 1.22 HR/9 to RHB. Peralta has not shown much of a splits difference over his career which is good for a matchup against a same handed pitcher. He has a .330 wOBA against RHP since 2011. Even if you don't love the individual matchup, Peralta should see plenty of RBI opportunities tonight.
Third Base
Top Plays
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - Miggy is one of the best plays at any position tonight. He crushes RHP posting an elite .348/.413/.628 line against it since 2011. Facing Corey Kluber, today is a good day to spend on Miggy if you aren't stacking Boston/Texas.
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - I love all my Rangers right handed bats against Dallas Keuchel, and Beltre is no exception. He's cheaper than Cabrera on most sites and with a lot of expensive hitting plays looking attractive, you might have to save the money and play Beltre over Cabrera.
Value Plays
Cody Ransom (CHC) - Ransom might actually be the Cubs best hitter against LHP. In his last 140 plate appearance from 2011-present he has a .379 wOBA against southpaws and that comes with a TON of power (.320 ISO). It's a bit of a small sample size but considering his low price on most sites, I'm willing to take a risk on Ransom against Ross Detwiler who can be effective but not overpowering by any means.
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - Middlebrooks has really been struggling, and it's easy to see why as his plate discipline is really poor. His price is down, though, and he has a lot of upside against Ramon Ortiz today. Despite the poor plate discipline, Middlebrooks has at least been able to hit for power against RHP with a career .204 ISO.
Another cheaper 3B option is Brett Lawrie hitting in Fenway Park against Jon Lester.
Outfield
Top Play
Nelson Cruz (TEX) - Nelson Cruz kills LHP. Since 2011 his batting line against southpaws is a ridiculous .331/.403/.626 which makes him a must play on sites where he is moderately priced. Opposing pitcher Dallas Keuchel has the worst split today against RHB allowing a .373 wOBA and 1.57 HR/9. Keuchel's FIP against RHB is 5.83; the next highest mark against RHB for an SP in action today is 4.53.
Ryan Braun (MIL) - Despite the amount of Brewers I have listed, I wouldn't play too many of them as Cingrani is a quality pitcher. I just feel Cingrani's fly ball ways mixing with Milwaukee's plethora of RHB in Cincinnati will lead to a couple of long balls. Braun is obviously in the best position to deliver as he has slugged an insane .701 against lefties since 2011.
Value Plays
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) - Ramon Ortiz. Ramon Ortiz. Ramon Ortiz. Ellsbury actually isn't too high priced either after several disappointing performances. Look for him to get back on track today and to score a couple of runs leading off for what is expected to be a high scoring Boston team today.
Daniel Nava (BOS) - This isn't solely a play against Ramon Ortiz, as Nava has some skills from the left side of the plate. The last few years he has compiled a very respectable .363 wOBA against RHP in 316 plate appearances.
Jason Kubel (ARZ) - Kubel is a strong splits play. He's pretty bad against LHP, but has plus power against RHP - posting a .227 ISO against RHP since 2011. That makes him a solid value play tonight against RHP Tyler Cloyd who in a limited sample has been awful against LHB allowing 4 HR in just 12.2 IP.
Andy Dirks (DET) - Dirks is off to a bit of a slow start but he has a solid .337 wOBA against RHP since 2011, and that number was much improved last season, albeit slightly BABIP inflated (.379 wOBA). He will be hitting fifth or sixth tonight most likely which should allow him to see plenty of RBI opportunities against Corey Kluber (ZIPS projected rest of season ERA of 5.38).
Carlos Beltran (STL) - Beltran has a solid matchup facing Jon Garland. Beltran has a .372 wOBA against RHP the last couple of seasons, and Garland has yielded a .337 wOBA to LHB with 1.01 HR/9 since 2010.
Matt Joyce (TB) - Joyce is a great cheap splits play, particularly on sites that do not price for splits. In his career he has an .851 OPS against RHP with a .233 ISO. Opposing pitcher Edinson Volquez is always prone to blow ups and has a 5.22 ERA against LHB since 2010.
Jay Bruce (CIN) - Bruce's price is too low on a lot of sites. As mentioned before, Gallardo is just mediocre at handling LHB, while Bruce is elite at home against RHP. In such situations he had a .920 OPS in 2011 and a 1.040 OPS in 2012.
Jeff Baker (TEX) - I'm not positive what position Baker is eligible at as it varies from site to site, but he is flat out mispriced on some sites when he faces LHP, and with the Rangers setup to beat up on Dallas Keuchel he's an extremely good/rare case of being salary cap relief for your team while providing plenty of upside. For his career, Baker has an .861 OPS against LHP.
Starting Pitcher
I think you can tell by now that I prefer a lot more expensive hitting that I normally do, so my pitching suggestions are all going to be value plays. On most sites you'll need to save some money here. You won't have to go to the bottom of the barrel, but the top priced guys are probably out of the question.
Best Value Play
Alexi Ogando (TEX) - Ogando is way too cheap on a lot of sites for a matchup against the Astros who are 27th in MLB with a .294 wOBA against RHP and dead last with a 27.5 K% against RHP. Last time Ogando faced the Astros (his first start of the year) he struck out 10 and walked only one. He allowed 4 hits and did not give up a run. Also, it is quite clear by now that I expect opposing starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel to get hit hard, which would make an Ogando win quite likely.
Value Plays
Matt Cain (SF) - If you are like me and not reading into Cain's poor start at all, this is a good spot to use him. He's one of the few top SP's you can afford to pay for on a day with lots of expensive hitting, and he's home in his giant ballpark. Simply underpriced.
Shaun Marcum (NYM) - Marcum has had a few rocky appearances since returning from the DL, but when healthy, he has been extremely consistent over the past four seasons. Look for him to get on track today against the Pirates, who are sending out lineups, as I pointed out yesterday, that allow RHP to potentially rack up a lot of K's.
Dan Straily (OAK) - The Mariners are tied with the Astros with a .294 wOBA against RHP and have the 8th highest team K rate against RHP (22%). Meanwhile, Straily has shown high K rates between the Minors and Majors throughout his career. With his strikeout skills, the Mariners offensive woes against RHP and the game being played in a pitcher's park, this is another good value play you have to choose from.
Matt Magill (LAD) - I'm at the point where I will throw almost anyone who is facing the Marlins for the right price, and Magill is real cheap on some sites where you have to start multiple starting pitchers. The Marlins .264 wOBA against RHP is the worst in MLB by a long shot. I do not know a ton about Magill but ZIPS has him projected for at least a somewhat reasonable 4.73 FIP rest of season, and he was striking out more than 10 batters per 9 in the Minors the past two seasons.
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Originally Posted by dudekid
