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The fact of the matter is that the Astros are very good stealing signs or not...Comment -
can't root for the astros even tho born in houston hate cheaters but wouldn't mind if dusty baker gets a ring still go national league phils or padres por favorComment -
The Phillies are burying some guys jj I thinkComment -
The Rangers will be looking to add some pitching this offseason and evidently aren’t ruling out a run at the top of the market. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that the club is planning a “hard push” for left-hander Carlos Rodón.
Rodón, 30 in December, isn’t technically a free agent just yet. Prior to the 2022 campaign, he signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants. However, that deal allows Rodón to opt-out after the first year of the deal, which he is widely expected to do. The only reason he had to settle for a short-term deal in the first place was because of health concerns.
Rodón only threw 42 1/3 innings combined over 2019 and 2020 due to various injuries. In 2021, he was healthy enough to get to 132 2/3 frames on the year, but seemed to run out of gas as the season went along. Due to those durability concerns, he settled for a short pact with the Giants, but one that would allow him to return to the open market as long as he pitched a minimum of 110 innings.
That plan has gone exactly as envisioned for the southpaw, as he stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and logging a personal-best 178 innings. The added quantity didn’t subtract from the quality either. He registered a 2.88 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 34.1% ground ball rate. He was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, the second-highest such tally among all MLB pitchers this year, trailing only Aaron Nola. Based on that excellent campaign, he’s sure to opt out of the $22.5MM remaining on his deal and return to the open market.
While that strong showing means Rodón will become a free agent, it also means he will get paid. He figures to be at the top of the free agent starting pitching market, alongside fellow opt-out holders Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. Those other two hurlers are older than Rodón and will be limited to shorter contracts with high average annual values, something akin to the Max Scherzer contract from last year. Rodón, on the other hand, will be more analogous to Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman. Ray and Gausman were both free agents a year ago, with Ray going into his age-30 season like Rodón, while Gausman was going into his age-31 campaign. Rodón has a case that he’s as good as, or perhaps better than, both of them. Here are their platform years…
- Rodón: 178 innings, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 34.1% ground ball rate, 6.5% HR/FB, 2.88 ERA, 2.83 SIERA, 2.25 FIP, 6.2 fWAR.
- Ray: 193 1/3 innings, 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 37.2% ground ball rate, 15.9% HR/FB, 2.84 ERA, 3.21 SIERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.9 fWAR.
- Gausman: 192 innings, 29.3% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 41.9% ground ball rate, 11.3% HR/FB, 2.81 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, 3.00 FIP, 4.8 fWAR.
Rodón issues slightly more walks but also got more strikeouts and allowed far fewer home runs. Though the ERAs are very close, advanced metrics prefer Rodón’s profile and give him the nod. Teams interested in signing Rodón won’t look just at his most recent season, of course, with his past injuries still counting for something. However, Ray and Gausman also had warts on their respective resumes, with Ray not pitching so well over 2018-2020 and Gausman struggling in 2019.
Ray was given a qualifying offer a year ago but Gausman was ineligible as he had already received one in his career. Both pitchers ended up receiving fairly similar contracts, as Ray signed with the Mariners for $115MM over five years, while Gausman signed with the Blue Jays for $110MM, also over five years. Like Ray, Rodón will receive and reject a qualifying offer, though it shouldn’t have a significant effect on his market.
For the Rangers, they spent big on free agency last year, giving huge deals to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Though those two players had fine seasons, the team still disappointed, largely due to their pitching. The team’s starters registered a 4.63 ERA, ranking them 25th out of the 30 MLB teams. Advanced metrics like FIP and SIERA weren’t much kinder, coming in at 4.42 and 4.36, respectively. That’s part of the reason why the club ended up going 68-94 on the year.
One of the few pitchers to perform well for the Rangers this year was MartÃn Pérez, though he’s slated for free agency. There’s apparently some mutual interest in a reunion for next year, though nothing is set in stone there yet. That leaves the Rangers with a rotation consisting of Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and a few holes. There are some internal candidates to fill those holes, though none of them had strong campaigns in 2022. Glenn Otto, Cole Ragans, Taylor Hearn and Spencer Howard each made at least eight starts for the Rangers in 2022, though all three of them posted ERAs around 5.00 or higher.
Improving the rotation for 2023 is a fairly sensible move for the Rangers as they look to put together a more competitive squad going forward. General manager Chris Young has indicated that the club will increase payroll this year, which will apparently allow them to consider spending at the very top of the free agent pitching market. The club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $142MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their outlay for 2023 is currently at $99MM, per Roster Resource, though that figure doesn’t include salaries for arbitration-eligible players or a $6MM option for Jose LeClerc. That LeClerc option and the arb class should get the Rangers up to around $115MM or so, leaving almost $30MM to work with before they get to their 2022 number. How much they actually have to spend will depend how much higher the payroll is expected to climb this year.
The Rangers will surely have competition for Rodón’s services, with just about every team with designs on contention looking to upgrade their starting rotation. Since he will be one of the best hurlers available, he figures to be quite popular this winter. The Giants have already expressed an interest in keeping him in San Francisco, for instance. Whether the Rangers ultimately sign him specifically or not, it is likely exciting news for fans of the club that they are willing to pair last year’s spending spree on position players by being similarly aggressive on the pitching front this year.Comment -
Juan Soto needs to start hitting bombs if he want to get paid next yearComment -
Rough game and Musgrove was not on his A game
Must win today or it is pretty much over
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Need some good Soto shuffles. How bad is Smoltz at announcing baseball by the way?Comment -
Yu Darvish time tomorrow, mount up Padres.Comment -
Philly is relentless at home. They just keep swinging the bats and are never out of a game. Need the game of a lifetime from Darvish in game 5 and then anything can happen at home.Comment -
Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez played through a non-displaced fracture in his left thumb for the past month, Zach Meisel of The Athletic reports. Unlike fellow Guardians infielder Jose Ramirez, who underwent off-season surgery for his thumb injury, Giménez won’t require surgery on his thumb.
The 24-year-old put up easily the best season of his young career, amassing 6.1 fWAR and establishing himself as a star in Cleveland. Giménez posted a .297/.371/.466 slashline with 17 home runs in 2022, as he hit the ball harder than previous seasons, while also cutting his strikeout rate by around 5% to 20.1% and lifting his walk rate to 6.1%. Long viewed as an elite gloveman at either shortstop or second base, Giménez was worth 16 Defensive Runs Saved, 12 Outs Above Average and had a 6.5 UZR. The fact he did this while playing through an injury for a chunk of the season makes it all the more impressive.
Having struggled to a .218/.282/.351 line across 210 plate appearances in 2021 after coming across from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor trade, Giménez’ breakout in 2022 certainly makes Cleveland fans feel better about that trade and gives the team yet another superstar infielder to build around. While his efforts won’t be enough to get past Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP honors this year, he’ll certainly receive a number of votes, and the Guardians will be hoping he remains in the conversation for many years to come.Comment -
Astros and Phillies. Both teams hot but one will cool off before the finalsComment -
It's been a fun ride but it looks to be overComment -
At least they beat the Dodgers Jake. I know it's no consolation to go so far yet come up short but beating your arch rival in the playoffs shows the Padres are close to the ultimate goal. The Phillies are just red hot now and it was going to be tough to overcome that in a short series. They remind me of the Nationals team that won the World Series a few years ago in that they are just on fire and its a new guy every night with the heroics. We'll see if they can keep it up against the Astros because it doesn't look like the Astros can be stopped right now but if there is one team that could pull it off it just might be these Phillies so I think we get a good Fall Classic.
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Pennant series went by too fast. Should be a good world series with two hot teamsComment -
Thanks fellas, that was a rough way to lose yesterday but overall a fine showing in the playoffs...hopefully they can improve the team in the offseason.At least they beat the Dodgers Jake. I know it's no consolation to go so far yet come up short but beating your arch rival in the playoffs shows the Padres are close to the ultimate goal. The Phillies are just red hot now and it was going to be tough to overcome that in a short series. They remind me of the Nationals team that won the World Series a few years ago in that they are just on fire and its a new guy every night with the heroics. We'll see if they can keep it up against the Astros because it doesn't look like the Astros can be stopped right now but if there is one team that could pull it off it just might be these Phillies so I think we get a good Fall Classic.
Clevinger and Manaea were brutal in game 4, need to move on from them.Comment -
Phillies vs Astros wowComment -
It's ashame how both Yankees and Padres had a lead and later lost.Comment -
Clevinger more interested in abusing women than pitching these days.Comment -
A year ago, Left-hander Cionel Perez the Orioles announced they’d claimed him off waivers from the Reds. Ditto righty Bryan Baker, whom the Orioles claimed from the Blue Jays two weeks prior. They were the definition of innocuous offseason moves at the time: a last-place team claiming a pair of little-known relievers who’d been waived by non-playoff clubs performing garden-variety 40-man roster maintenance. The moves were met with the expected cynicism associated with waiver claims of this ilk.
At the time, it wasn’t wholly clear whether either would even survive the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. Perez was out of minor league options, so he’d have to win a big league spot during Spring Training or else be subjected to waivers a second time. It’s not at all uncommon for fringe 40-man players in that spot to eventually be designated for assignment when a team signs a free agent, acquires an established player via trade, or claims someone else on waivers.
Fortunately for the O’s, both Perez and Baker indeed survived the winter on their 40-man roster. Perez fired six shutout innings with just three hits and two walks against seven strikeouts during the truncated Spring Training. Baker tossed four innings of one-run ball. Both found their way onto the Opening Day roster. Prior to this year, Perez had pitched to a 6.04 ERA in 50 2/3 MLB innings, including a 6.38 mark in 2021. Baker had one MLB inning to his name.
Before long, Perez found himself building a strong start to his 2022 season, however, solidifying his hold on a place in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen. He opened the year with 9 2/3 shutout frames, and while an 8-to-4 K/BB ratio along the way was a bit less impressive, he followed that strong first month with seven more innings of one-run ball and an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio. By the time the Orioles’ game on June 1 drew to a close, Perez had pitched 16 2/3 innings with a 0.55 ERA, a 25.8% strikeout rate, a 10.6% walk rate and a 51.2% ground-ball rate.
Along the way, Perez increasingly began to incorporate a new pitch into his repertoire: a power sinker that averaged a hearty 96.6 mph. He’d never thrown a sinker in a Major League game before, and Perez used the offering sporadically through the season’s first three months, only flashing it 9.6% of the time. In mid-July, however, Perez committed to the pitch more decisively, and from July 16 through season’s end he used that new sinker at a 22.4% clip. His four-seamer, which he’d previously thrown 52.4% of the time, saw its usage rate dip to 36.9%.
Perez posted a sparkling ERA both pre-sinker and post-sinker, but the secondary numbers suggest that Perez’s success with the sinker was more sustainable than without. Once he leaned more heavily into the new pitch, he fanned 25.2% of his opponents, walked 9.0% of them, induced grounders at a 52.8% rate and yielded an 88.2 mph average exit velocity. Prior, those rates were 22%, 8.9%, 50% and 89.6 mph. The gains weren’t Earth-shattering, but Perez’s results were better once he gained more comfort with his new pitch. Seventy percent of the sinkers that were put into play against Perez were grounders.
Good as Perez was in 2022, there’s likely some regression in store. His .284 average on balls in play isn’t especially fortunate, but few pitchers can sustain marks as low as Perez’s 0.31 HR/9 and 4.3% homer-to-flyball ratio. He’s also unlikely to continue stranding 87.4% of his runners moving forward — a rate that ranked ninth in MLB (min. 50 innings) behind a collection of some of the game’s most proficient strikeout artists. Still, there’s not much about his 2022 season that portends a complete implosion next year.
Baker took the opposite route of Perez, getting hit hard and hit often early in his first extended look at the MLB level. Through June 19, he’d been tagged for a grisly 5.60 ERA in 27 1/3 innings of bullpen work. The O’s opted to stick with him rather than option him to Triple-A, however, and they’re likely quite glad they did.
Baker threw his changeup less than 10% of the time in those first two-plus months but more than doubled his usage to 21.4% from late June through season’s end. Meanwhile, he continued to up his fastball velocity, averaging 97.3 mph over the final few months after sitting just 95.2 mph through his first 27 1/3 innings. From June 24 through season’s end, Baker posted a 2.13 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.
It’s an open question whether he can sustain the velocity gains he picked up during the season, but his changeup was a devastating out pitch for him down the stretch. Baker finished off 48 plate appearances with a changeup in 2022, surrendering only two hits (both singles) and racking up 25 strikeouts in the process. Statcast credits him with a hearty 37.7% whiff rate on the pitch and gives his opponents credit for an expected wOBA of just .123. Hitters averaged just 83.1 mph off the bat when they put Baker’s changeup in play — with 55% of those batted balls taking the form of grounders.
Neither Perez nor Baker will draw the fanfare of up-and-coming Baltimore stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but that doesn’t mean they can’t fill key roles as the team looks to continue its emergence from an arduous rebuild. Perez is controllable for another four seasons, and Baker can be controlled for five more years. There’s some obvious volatility when it comes to year-over-year performance with relievers, so perhaps Perez and/or Baker will come crashing back to Earth at some point. For now, however, the O’s have what looks like a pair of setup men they acquired for free — a quality lefty/righty combo that’ll help to form a bridge to fellow out-of-the-blue breakout Felix Bautista.
Keep in mind that this is the same Orioles team that traded another waiver wire All-Star, Jorge Lopez, prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Building quality bullpens has proven to be an Achilles heel for countless front offices, but at least for the 2022 season, the O’s made it look downright easy. Their ability to continue doing so could well be as important to turning the tide as the arrival of many of the system’s vaunted top prospects.Comment -
The Padres made it to the NLCS for the first time since 1998, but their season came to a close yesterday when they were knocked off by the Phillies in five games. San Diego now turns its attention to the offseason, where they’ll face a decent amount of possible roster turnover around a star-studded core.
San Diego will see Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, midseason trade pickups Josh Bell and Brandon Drury and relievers Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen all hit free agency. A handful of other players have contractual options that could get them to the open market. Each of Nick Martinez, Robert Suarez and Jurickson Profar has the ability to opt out of their contracts this winter. Wil Myers, meanwhile, has a $20MM team option that is certain to be bought out for $1MM.
Martinez and Suarez were two of San Diego’s higher-leverage relievers down the stretch, raising the possibility of a good portion of the Padres bullpen hitting the open market. As part of a broader look at questions facing the roster (a piece worth a read in full), Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests Martinez is likely to test the open market. The right-hander signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee last winter following a three-season run in Japan, with the contract affording him an opt-out chance after each season. He’s due $19.5MM over the next three years but would be due a $1.5MM buyout if he opts out, meaning he’s left to decide whether he can top a three-year, $18MM guarantee on the open market.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a detailed look at the situation last month, noting that Martinez’s strong performance out of the bullpen made that an interesting call. Acee indicates Martinez could prioritize finding a rotation opportunity after working in a swing role this year. The 32-year-old started 10 of his first 12 outings but moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June. At the time of his bullpen transfer, he had a 4.05 ERA with an average 21.9% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 10.4% walk percentage. Following the move to relief, Martinez worked 46 frames of 2.74 ERA ball. He cut his walk rate to 7.4%, but his strikeout rate dipped a percentage point. Despite lacking power, swing-and-miss stuff, Martinez picked up eight saves and served as a generally versatile bullpen piece for manager Bob Melvin.
Martinez’s ostensible desire for a rotation spot shouldn’t inherently rule him out in San Diego. While he was squeezed out of the mix midseason, the Friars went on to deal MacKenzie Gore in the Juan Soto trade. Coupled with the aforementioned free agencies of Clevinger and Manaea, there should be a fair bit of opportunity behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Acee indicates the Padres don’t want to abandon the possibility of using Adrián Morejón as a starter, however. The southpaw, once one of the game’s top pitching prospects, worked out of the bullpen 26 times this year after missing almost all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. Morejón isn’t guaranteed a season-opening rotation spot next year, but it seems the Friars are open to stretching him back out after a healthy offseason.
Suarez was a more straightforward power bullpen arm. Also a signee out of NPB last offseason, he went on to make 45 regular season appearances despite a two-month absence with right knee inflammation. He posted a 2.27 ERA across 47 2/3 innings, striking out a whopping 31.9% of opponents. Suarez’s control was erratic, but he brandished an upper-90s fastball and was Melvin’s most trusted bullpen arm by season’s end. It concluded on a sour note, with Suarez surrendering the go-ahead homer to Bryce Harper that brought San Diego’s year to a close, but he pitched out of a number of jams earlier in the postseason. With that kind of velocity and swing-and-miss stuff, he’s a lock to bypass the final $5MM on his deal in favor of a $1MM buyout and test free agency.
Things are a bit more settled on the position player side, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff will have to make a few key decisions there as well. First is whether to retain any of the impending free agents. Acee writes that the team is open to bringing back Drury, who hit eight homers in 46 games as a Padre. He only had a .290 on-base percentage during that time, but he’d posted a .274/.335/.520 showing with 20 homers for the Reds over the season’s first few months. Drury can cover any non-shortstop position on the infield and could serve as a corner outfield option with the team potentially losing Profar and Myers.
For his part, Myers indicated that he’s open to a return to San Diego (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). It certainly won’t be on the $20MM option, but Myers will find a big league deal on a lower base salary this offseason. He’s typically provided the Friars with slightly above-average offense, and that was again the case in 2022. Myers hit .261/.315/.398 over 286 plate appearances. He didn’t offer much against right-handed pitching but he popped six homers in 90 plate appearances against southpaws and carries a career .255/.351/.453 line while holding the platoon advantage.
With Bell’s possible departure, the Friars don’t have an obvious in-house first base option, perhaps opening the door for Myers to return at a lower rate. They could certainly dip into the free agent class there, although Acee notes there’s some support in the organization for playing Jake Cronenworth more frequently at first. Cronenworth is an above-average defensive second baseman, making that something of an odd fit, but San Diego has one of the sport’s most talented infields. Ha-Seong Kim proved himself an everyday player filling in for Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop, while Manny Machado is an MVP candidate at the hot corner.
Tatis didn’t play in 2022 because of injuries and a performance-enhancing drug suspension, but he’ll be back with the club in late April next year. Tatis still has 20 games remaining on his 80-game suspension — he missed 48 regular season contests and 12 playoff games this year — but will be back in the everyday lineup a few weeks into next year. Penciling him back in at shortstop could require kicking Kim to the other side of the second base bag. That’d form one of the sport’s top defensive infields, of particular value with forthcoming limitations on shifting. San Diego has also explored the possibility of playing Tatis in center field while curtailing Trent Grisham’s playing time on the heels of a .184/.284/.341 line. That could again be under consideration, but Tatis has previously expressed his preference for sticking at shortstop.Comment -
I think the writing is on the wall that Clevinger and Manaea have pitched their last games as Padres with them hitting free agency and both being liabilities in the postseason. I especially don't like Clevinger as much as I used to when he played for Cleveland and Manaea was just rough to watch it seemed every time he took the hill. This offseason will be interesting for a lot of teams because we'll get a full hot stove so I can't wait to see where some of the bigger names go this offseason.Comment -
Clevinger has been hurt but I was thinking his pitches looked so hittable the other day and the guy couldn't even record a single out in a playoff start...pathetic
I really hope they can bring back Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez although they will probably get good offers on the open market.Comment -
Manaea shouldn't return. That guy had an awful season. Stammen is known to throw fat pitches with home runs written all over it.Comment -
Let’s get to the hot stove, so close I can taste it.Comment -
Despite the continued excellence of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the Angels had another disappointing season in 2022. With Ohtani one year from free agency and the team for sale, will 2023 be the last hurrah before a huge turning point for the organization?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mike Trout, OF: $283MM through 2030
- Anthony Rendon, 3B: $152MM through 2026
- Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $30MM through 2023
- David Fletcher, IF: $20MM through 2025 (including $1.5MM buyout of 2026 club option)
- Max Stassi, C: $14.5MM through 2024 (including $500K buyout of 2025 club option)
- Aaron Loup, LHP: $9.5MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout of 2024 club option)
- Ryan Tepera, RHP: $7MM through 2023
Total 2023 commitments: $130.95MM
Total future commitments: $516MM
Option Decisions
- None
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Griffin Canning (3.075): $1.1MM
- Luis Rengifo (3.043): $2.4MM
- Jaime Barria (3.035): $1.2MM
- Chad Wallach (3.030): $800K
- Jared Walsh (3.010): $2.7MM
- Taylor Ward (2.164): $2.9MM
- Patrick Sandoval (2.149): $2.8MM
- Non-tender candidates: Wallach, Barria
Free Agents
- Michael Lorenzen, Archie Bradley, Kurt Suzuki (retiring), Matt Duffy
There was a period in 2022 when things were looking up for the Angels. The season actually began fairly well, with the club sporting a record of 27-17 through May 24. That was good enough for them to sit just a single game behind the Astros in the AL West, nine games ahead of the Mariners and firmly in the top AL Wild Card spot. Unfortunately, it’s essentially been a steep downward slide since that date. On May 25, the Angels started a losing streak that would eventually stretch to 14 games, with manager Joe Maddon getting fired during that period. Third base coach Phil Nevin took over on an interim basis. The managerial shakeup couldn’t change their trajectory, as they continued sliding and finished with a 73-89 record, missing the postseason for the eighth consecutive season and finishing below .500 seven straight. (Nevin has since been given a one-year deal to manage the team for 2023.)
On their way to that disappointing finish, it was reported in August that owner Arte Moreno was exploring selling the team, which has the potential to cast a pall over the near-term future of the franchise. Perhaps a new owner will emerge and inject some optimism into the club, like we’ve seen with Steve Cohen and the Mets. But it’s also possible that the uncertainty around the team’s future makes it difficult to make deals with players. Juan Soto seemed to be the most untouchable player on the Nationals, even though the club was trading away it’s veterans for prospects for most of 2021 and 2022. But the Nats are also exploring a sale and Soto was reportedly unwilling to consider an extension until the ownership question was settled, which quickly led to Soto being traded to the Padres, something that seemed unthinkable just a few weeks prior.
As this has been going on, many in the baseball world have begun salivating at the prospect of their favorite club acquiring two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, assuming he will follow a similar path to Soto. There are some reasons to think an Ohtani trade could actually come to fruition, given that he’s now only a year away from reaching the open market. Extension talks have apparently not gained much traction and the Angels even toyed with the idea of trading him at this year’s deadline, though Moreno reportedly refused to approve any deal.
Until there’s more clarity with regards to the ownership situation, the rest of the club’s offseason plans figure to be shrouded in mystery as well. Is Ohtani available in trades or not? Will Moreno be aggressive in what could be last chance to put together a winner, or avoid cluttering the books with more lengthy commitments in order to appeal to potential buyers? If a new owner emerges in the coming months, will they be an all-in Steve Cohen-type or decide to tear it all down immediately like when Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter took over the Marlins? General manager Perry Minasian figures to have lots on his to-do list, regardless of who he’s reporting to.
The Angels have often struggled to put together a solid starting rotation, at least in part due to an unwillingness to pay for starters. The last time they signed a free agent starting pitcher to a deal longer than one year was the two-year deal given to Joe Blanton in December of 2012. Despite that, and despite everything that went wrong in 2022, the rotation might have turned a corner. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote back in September about the encouraging signs shown by Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez. Those three, alongside Ohtani, give the Angels a decent front four going into the offseason. The Angels have been using a six-man rotation to accommodate Ohtani in recent years, but have at least considered going with a five-man group next year. There are a few in-house options to take a fifth or a sixth rotation spot, such as Touki Toussaint, Tucker Davidson, Chase Silseth and Janson Junk, though no one in that group has done enough to guarantee a spot at this point. There’s also Griffin Canning, who has shown promise in the past but been limited so much by injuries that it’s hard to rely on him going forward.
It’s an impressive amount of depth compared to recent years, but there should still be room for at least one outside addition. However, if the Angels stick to their one-year limit on starting pitching, it will make things challenging. They’d likely be looking at options like Drew Smyly, Wade Miley or re-signing Michael Lorenzen. If they are willing to make a deeper dive, they could be in play for names like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga or Mike Clevinger, though it seems unlikely the Angels would jump to the top of the market and try for Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon.
The club’s bullpen was middle of the pack in 2022, with their 3.97 ERA coming in 18th among the 30 MLB teams. Most of that group can be retained, with only Archie Bradley heading for free agency. Injuries limited him to 18 2/3 innings and kept him from being a key contributor in 2022. They also dealt closer Raisel Iglesias at the deadline, but they may have found an in-house replacement. Jimmy Herget, known as “The Human Glitch” because of his funky mechanics, threw 69 innings this year with a 2.48 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 40.1% ground ball rate. He shimmied his way up the depth chart and eventually earned nine saves and seven holds, most of those coming after the Iglesias trade. Whether the Angels believe in Herget is their next closer or not, there’s plenty of room for improvement in the bullpen and they should be looking to make outside additions.
Behind the plate, the club faces an interesting question. Max Stassi had a pair of solid seasons in 2020 and 2021, but 2022 was a step backwards. He hit .180/.267/.303 for a wRC+ of 63 this year, a big drop from his .250/.333/.452 batting line over the previous two campaigns, which led to a wRC+ of 113. He still has a couple years left on his extension and will likely get some time to readjust, but the club might want to have a backup plan. It’s possible that they already have one in place, as they acquired Logan O’Hoppe from the Phillies at the deadline in the Brandon Marsh trade. He was mashing in Double-A and the club gave him an MLB audition down the stretch. It would be risky to go into the season relying on a catcher with five MLB games under his belt, though he did hit .283/.416/.544 in the minors this year for a wRC+ of 159. Perhaps the Angels will let him and Stassi battle for playing time and hope that at least one of them works out. If they want a bit of insurance, they could sign a respected veteran like Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges or Tucker Barnhart.
Similar to Stassi, Jared Walsh disappointed at first base on the heels of a couple of strong seasons. He hit 38 home runs over 2020 and 2021, slashing .280/.338/.531 for a wRC+ of 130. In 2022, his batting line was .215/.269/.374 for a wRC+ of just 78. It’s possible that health was the culprit here, as Walsh underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in September. He’ll likely get a chance to show that 2022 was just a fluke due to injury, but he’ll be a great unknown going into next season. If it emerges during the offseason that Walsh won’t be ready for Spring and they look for a stopgap, someone like Donovan Solano could make sense, as he could slide to another position once Walsh returns.
At third base, the Angels will be looking for a bounceback from Anthony Rendon. Given the years and dollars remaining on his contract, he’s not going anywhere. It doesn’t really make sense to give up on him, anyway. He’s had two straight injury-marred seasons, but was excellent for four straight campaigns prior to that. From 2017 to 2020, he hit .307/.399/.550 for a wRC+ of 146 and also provided above-average defense, leading to a tally of 21.1 fWAR over that period. He’s going into his age-33 campaign and perhaps shouldn’t be expected to be as good as his peak, though the Angels can do little but hope for him to stay healthy and get back into good form.
The middle infield is perhaps the area of the club in greatest need of an overhaul. In 2022, the Angels used a rotating hodgepodge of role players and utility types, which included Matt Duffy, Andrew Velazquez, Tyler Wade and many others. If one were to try to project their lineup for next year with only in-house options, it would probably result in David Fletcher at shortstop and Luis Rengifo at second base. Fletcher missed most of 2022 with injuries, only getting into 61 games and not hitting very well in that time. His .255/.288/.333 batting line resulted in a 75 wRC+. Outside of a tremendous showing in the shortened 2020 season, Fletcher’s time in the big leagues has resulted in four below-average offensive seasons. He does post strong defensive numbers wherever he plays, but he is perhaps better suited to a utility role than an everyday shortstop job.
As for Rengifo, he had a nice season at the plate, despite walking in only 3.3% of his plate appearances. He hit 17 home runs in 127 games, leading to a batting line of .264/.294/.429, 103 wRC+. The Angels probably would like to give Rengifo a chance to see if he can carry that production into his age-26 season, though he’s capable of playing many positions and doesn’t necessarily need to be guarantee a specific spot. As a switch-hitter, it would be theoretically possible for he and the right-handed-hitting Fletcher to form a platoon, though both have hit better against lefties in their careers, making it an imperfect fit.
From a baseball perspective, the Angels make sense as a landing spot for one of the big four shortstops this winter. Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are free agents, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts widely expected to join them by opting out of their respective contracts. Any of those four would give some more pop to the Angel lineup and also help out a defense that was lacking in 2022. The Angels collectively posted a Defensive Runs Saved of eight, which placed them 17th in the majors. Outs Above Average gave them a 1 for 18th place while Ultimate Zone Rating had them in 20th place at -8.0.
From a business perspective, the fit might not be so smooth. As mentioned earlier, it’s unknown if the Angels want to make significant commitments to the long-term payroll. Each of those four shortstops are likely to command deals of seven years or longer. Even if the Angels were willing to add another contract like that to the books, would the player want to come to a team with so much uncertainty hovering over it?
In the short-term, the Angels should have some money to spend, assuming they’re willing to at least match recent payroll levels. Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their Opening Day payroll for 2022 as $189MM, a slight bump over 2021. Their outlay for 2023 is currently at $133MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. Arbitration-eligible players will add about $12MM or so that, bringing the total to the vicinity of $145MM. If they’re willing to spend at a similar level to the past couple of seasons, they will have around $40MM to play with. If they can’t convince one of the top shortstops to make a deal, they would make sense for other middle infielders like Elvis Andrus, Jose Iglesias or Jean Segura.
Turning to the outfield, two spots should be spoken for already, with Trout obviously entrenched in center. Taylor Ward got his first real stretch of MLB playing time, despite some minor injuries, and responded by hitting 23 home runs and slashing .281/.360/.473 for a wRC+ of 137. He should have the right field job.
The big question is left field, with Brandon Marsh having been traded to the Phillies at the deadline. Mickey Moniak came over from the Phils in a separate deal, the Noah Syndergaard one. Despite being a former first overall selection, he hasn’t been able to do much to establish himself at the big league level. In 167 plate appearances over three seasons, he’s hit just .157/.218/.268, wRC+ of 32. There’s also Jo Adell, who got 285 plate appearances this year but hit just .224/.264/.373 for a wRC+ of 77. He also struck out in an untenable 37.5% of those appearances. Neither should be relied upon as an Opening Day outfielder for the club, meaning they should look to outside acquisitions. A run at Aaron Judge seems unlikely given all the question marks around the team, though there are plenty other serviceable options. Mitch Haniger is risky given his health, but that also means he might have to settle for a one-year deal. Perhaps the Angels are the team to offer Michael Conforto the everyday spot for him to showcase his health. However it’s done, this is an area that should be addressed.
The Angels are going into the offseason in a position that is in some ways very familiar but also fraught with uncertainty. Each recent season has finished with disappointment, but still with enough talent on the roster to keep the hope flowing down the road. This year is similar in that regard. They were below .500 in 2022 but they still have Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Ward, a rotation that looks to be in okay shape, and some other nice pieces. However, they also have obvious holes and will face significant challenges in trying to fill them. How willing is Moreno to spend on a team he’s trying to sell? If a new owner steps up, do they want to spend or save? Which players are willing to join a franchise with such a murky future? The answers to those questions will shape not just this offseason, but the future of the franchise.Comment -
Who are the opening day starters?Comment -
Musgrove, Darvish and Snell.Comment
