I like our chances against anyone right now, playing the best baseball of the season and guys that have struggled all year are starting to contribute.
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Yeah pretty epic to send the Dodgers home!!
I like our chances against anyone right now, playing the best baseball of the season and guys that have struggled all year are starting to contribute.Comment -
Yankees could be done too. Not the final 4 people expectedComment -
Congrats Jake. Good luck moving on forwardComment -
Jake, I hear you threw out the first pitch yesterday! Good vibes!!Comment -
Can't wait until Tuesday for that NLCS showdown between the Phils and the Padres. It's going to be a good series both teams are hot at the right time so it's hard to predict who'll take this one.Comment -
With Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and top prospect Gabriel Moreno all vying for playing time in 2023, there has been constant speculation over which of these catchers could be dealt to help the Blue Jays address other needs. However, a trade isn’t necessarily a sure thing, as one (at least temporary) answer could be to move Moreno out from behind the plate, as noted by Shi Davidi in a piece for Baseball America. Moreno played in a handful of games at first and third base in the minors, and the final game of the Blue Jays’ 2022 season saw him play as a second baseman and left fielder for the first time in his pro career.
“We have to be open to everything. That’s why you’ve seen him play in different positions,” Toronto GM Ross Atkins told Davidi and other reporters. “But we have to be open to any way to maximize our 40-man roster at this point, and (catching) is clearly an area of depth.”
A catcher athletic enough to play other positions carries extra value, and depending on how well Moreno adapts, his ultimate future might not even be behind the plate. For instance, the Diamondbacks find themselves looking for catching help since former catcher-of-the-future Daulton Varsho has delivered such strong glovework in the outfield. Finding a way to fit Moreno, Kirk, and Jansen into the same lineup would be a boon for the Jays, as Moreno doesn’t have much left to prove at Triple-A. Returning Moreno to the minors “is not our best outcome, most likely, given his progress,” Atkins said.
More from around the AL East…
- Orioles GM Mike Elias has already stated that his team plans to spend more in 2023, though the size and nature of the payroll boost will naturally only be determined as the offseason progresses. Not all of the Orioles’ expenditures would have to be on new talent, as The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz opines that “arguably no move made this winter would benefit [the team’s] future more than ensuring [Adley] Rutschman is a part of it.” Locking up Rutschman to a big multi-year extension would follow the pattern of teams looking to lock up star young talents, as we’ve seen with the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez and the Braves’ Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider just within the last couple of months. There isn’t necessarily any rush for the O’s to make a deal since Rutschman only just finished his rookie season, yet extending the catcher or any of Baltimore’s many up-and-coming young stars would seem like a logical next step in the front office’s process.
- The Red Sox are one of many teams facing some tough 40-man roster decisions this winter, and NBC Sports Boston’s John Tomase takes a look at some of the prospects under consideration to receive roster spots. Some decisions are easier than others, as shortstop/center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela will certainly be added to the 40-man following a great season at the high-A and Double-A levels. Rafaela hit .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers and 28 steals over 522 combined plate appearances at the two levels in 2022, and also flashed some excellent defense at multiple positions.
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Yankees probably get over the hump tonight.Comment -
Go Indians, give em the heater Ricky!!Comment -
Go to the game Jake!!!Comment -
Short Stops
The Big Four
- Xander Bogaerts (30 years old next season)
While not technically a free agent yet, there’s no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract — if the two parties can’t first work out an extension. That’ll be the team’s focus for the next month, but failing a new long-term deal, Bogaerts will opt out, receive a qualifying offer, reject it and become a free agent for the first time in his career.
The 2022 season marked something of an odd year for the four-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger winner. Bogaerts’ power numbers (15 home runs, .149 ISO) dipped to their lowest point since 2017, but he also enjoyed the defensive season of his career by measure of virtually every publicly available metric (4 Defensive Runs Saved, 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average).
In seasons past, Bogaerts’ glove was seen as his primary flaw. He’s typically graded out as a below-average defender and been seen as a candidate for an eventual position change. This year’s performance will likely quiet that chatter for now, and while the drop in power is of some concern, power was down throughout the league and Bogaerts did regain some extra-base pop in the season’s final couple months.
Besides, his .307/.377/.456 batting line from 2022 was still excellent, and when looking at the past half-decade on the whole, Bogaerts owns a stout .300/.373/.507 slash with 105 homers, 177 doubles, a 9.9% walk rate and an 18.1% strikeout rate in 2737 plate appearances. He’ll play all of next season at 30 years old, and it’s reasonable to expect the market could produce at least a seven-year deal for him.
- Carlos Correa (28)
There was never much doubt, but last week, Correa publicly declared for the first time that he’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his contract (barring an extension before his opt-out date, five days after the World Series). Correa will return to the open market having just turned 28 years old and on the heels of a strong .291/.366/.467 batting line in what could very well be his lone season as a Twin. He’s said all the right things about enjoying his time in Minnesota and hoping to ink a long-term deal in a setting that his young family has already grown to love, but an extension feels like a long shot.
The 2022 season wasn’t Correa’s best, but that’s only because of the lofty standards he’s previously established. Correa was 40% better than average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, but his previously Platinum Glove-winning defense fell to merely above-average, per DRS and UZR. (Notably, OAA pegged his glovework as actually slightly below average.) Twins brass has spent much of the year lauding Correa’s glovework, leadership and clubhouse presence. There’s surely some genuine interest in keeping him, but doing so would require eclipsing Joe Mauer’s $184MM guarantee for the largest contract in franchise history — likely by a rather large margin.
Correa had plenty of injuries earlier in his career and had a pair of brief IL stints in 2022 due to a minor finger injury and a spell on the Covid list. But he’s played in 89% of his team’s games over the past three seasons and logged a hefty 132 wRC+ in that span. Since 2018, his 50 DRS are tied for sixth-most in MLB, regardless of position. His 45 OAA places him seventh.
It’s hard to imagine Correa securing the reported $330MM+ he was reportedly seeking in free agency last winter. He’s a year older now and coming off a strong but lesser season than his career year in 2021. That said, he’s still squarely in his prime, is generally regarded as a plus contributor on both sides of the ball and in the clubhouse, and he finished out the season on a high note, ranking as one of the AL’s most productive bats over the final two months. He’s also the only one of this top-tier group that can’t receive a qualifying offer (by virtue of receiving one last year).
- Dansby Swanson (29)
Traded by the Diamondbacks just six months after being selected with the No. 1 pick in 2015, Swanson made his big league debut barely one year after that top overall selection. After a few years of anywhere from lackluster to downright poor offensive output, Swanson turned a corner in 2019 and, since 2020, has been an above-average offensive player: .265/.324/.451, 62 home runs, 80 doubles, three triples, 32-for-42 in stolen bases.
Granted, by measure of wRC+, Swanson has “only” been nine percent better than league-average at the plate in that three-year span (though 16% in 2022 alone). But, for a player who provides plenty of baserunning value and has been considered anywhere from a plus to an elite defender at shortstop, that’s plenty of bat. Swanson’s 2022 season, in particular, has been sensational in the eyes of DRS (9) and OAA (20). Statcast has been particularly bullish on Swanson’s defense over the years, ranking him 13th among all big leaguers in OAA (38) and 15th in Runs Above Average (28) since the start of the 2018 season.
Swanson will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Braves, subjecting him to draft pick compensation this winter. At 29 years old this February, he’s the second-youngest in this top tier. Swanson surely took note as both Javier Baez and Trevor Story — who also had a qualifying offer attached to him — landed six-year deals with $140MM guarantees last year at the same age last winter.
- Trea Turner (30)
Quite arguably the best shortstop on the market this winter, Turner will reach free agency for the first time on the heels of a .298/.343/.466 slash (128 wRC+) in 160 games and 708 plate appearances. Turner’s 21 homers this year were down from last year’s career-best 28, and with “just” 27 steals (in 30 tries), he’s perhaps no longer the annual threat for 40-plus steals he was earlier in his career.
That said, Turner has hit .298 or better in each of the past four seasons and has never fanned at even a 20% clip in a full Major League season. He’s batted .311/.361/.509 (133 wRC+) over the past four seasons, played in 89.6% of possible games along the way (92% since 2018) and averaged 26.5 home runs and 35.1 steals per 162 games played. Turner graded as a standout defender at shortstop in 2018 but has been about average by measure of both DRS and OAA since that time. Even if he eventually moves off shortstop, Turner’s athleticism figures to make him adaptable to a new position; he posted plus defensive grades in two months as the Dodgers’ second baseman following the 2021 trade that sent him to L.A.
Turner, who’ll turn 30 next June, is younger than Bogaerts but 10 months older than Swanson and nearly two years older than Correa. Like Bogaerts and Swanson, he’s both eligible to receive and extraordinarily likely to reject a qualifying offer, which will subject him to draft-pick compensation this winter. With the market’s very top free agents, that’s often the cost of doing business and rarely something that will cause a big-market club to withhold interest entirely — but it’s a factor that’s at least worth noting.
The ten-year megadeals that 30-year-old free agents were once occasionally able to command (e.g. Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols) have generally fallen to the wayside, as teams tend to reserve lengths of ten or more years for players who are in their mid-20s. Position players reaching the market around Turner’s age have more recently been capped at signing through age-37, which would mean an eight-year deal in Turner’s case. Given his rare blend of power and speed, his durability and his general athleticism, Turner can also expect to command a salary near the top of the AAV scale for position players.
Veterans Coming Off Solid Seasons
- Elvis Andrus (34)
At 34, Andrus isn’t the player he once was, but he still hit quite well after being released by the A’s and signing with the White Sox (.271/.309/.464, nine homers in 191 plate appearances). The 17 home runs Andrus hit this past season were his most since 2017. (It bears mentioning, too, that his release was less about his level of play than about ensuring that he didn’t receive the playing time to trigger a $15MM player option.)
A premier defender earlier in his career, Andrus now receives split grades from defensive metrics. Statcast still feels that he’s a plus defender, but DRS has given him negative marks for the past four years. If a team agrees that Andrus remains at least an above-average shortstop, this year’s rebound at the plate could net him a two-year deal. At the very least, Andrus should command a one-year, Major League contract to serve as a team’s primary shortstop.
- Aledmys Diaz (32)
Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .255/.302/.427 line in 2022 is quite similar to the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties. He’s had just eight plate appearances with the Astros in the postseason thus far, going 1-for-7 and also getting hit by a pitch.
- Jose Iglesias (33)
Like Andrus, Iglesias was once considered one of MLB’s top defensive shortstops but has seen his ratings plummet. He posted a staggering -22 DRS with the Angels and Red Sox in 2021, though he bounced most of the way back in 2022 and finished with a -4 mark. OAA has him as a scratch defender over the past few years.
At the plate, Iglesias continues to post solid or better batting averages thanks to excellent bat-to-ball skills, but he still has one of the worst walk rates in the game. He hit .292/.328/.380 with the Rockies in 2022. Iglesias will turn 33 in January and, after signing one-year deals in his last two trips to the open market, will find similar offers this winter.
Notable Rebound Hopefuls
- Didi Gregorius (33)
It’s been a swift decline for Gregorius, who starred in the Bronx as the successor to Derek Jeter and looked strong in the first season of his post-Yankees career, hitting .284/.339/.488 for the Phillies while playing in all 60 games of the shortened 2020 campaign. In two seasons since, he’s flopped with a .210/.267/.345 batting line, leading to his release in August. He won’t turn 33 until February, so there’s time for him to bounce back, but the 2021-22 seasons were disastrous.
- Andrelton Simmons (33)
It’s hard to compare the defense of current players to those from prior generations, but Simmons has a legitimate case as one of the greatest defensive players ever. He’s the all-time leader in DRS, which dates back to 2002, and is fourth since the inception of UZR and OAA. He has four Gold Glove Awards and a Platinum Glove win, and Simmons would probably have more hardware were it not for a few injury-shortened seasons. Unfortunately, his bat has also cratered in recent years, with just a .216/.277/.261 slash between the Twins and Cubs in 2021-22. Among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Simmons ranks third-worst with a 53 wRC+. The Cubs released him on Aug. 7.
- Jonathan Villar (32)
Villar hit 24 homers and swiped 40 bags with the O’s in 2019, struggled through a dismal showing between Miami and Toronto in 2020, and rebounded nicely with the 2021 Mets. The pendulum swung back in the other direction this year, as he was released by both the Cubs and Angels while hitting a combined .208/.260/.302. At his best, Villar is a switch-hitter with some power and difference-making speed, but he’s been wildly inconsistent in a career that has featured more valleys than peaks.
Depth Options
- Johan Camargo (29): Camargo had a big 2018 season with the Braves and has never recreated it, hitting .219/.271/.348 over the past four seasons. He’s a utility option but did log 186 innings at shortstop for the Phillies this year.
- Alcides Escobar (36): Escobar had a brief resurgence with the 2021 Nats, but that was the only time since 2014 his bat has been close to average. He hit .218/.262/.282 in 131 plate appearances with Washington this year.
- Marwin Gonzalez (34): Gonzalez played only 94 innings at short from 2019-21, but the Yankees gave him 134 innings there in 2022. The veteran switch-hitter is primarily a utility option, though, and this year’s .185/.255/.321 slash in 207 plate appearances leaves plenty to be desired.
- Dixon Machado (30): Machado hit .280/.359/.393 in 277 games in the Korea Baseball Organization from 2020-21 and posted similar Triple-A numbers between the Cubs and Giants this year. He’s never hit in the Majors, however, evidenced by a .226/.285/.292 batting line in 522 trips to the plate.
- Deven Marrero (32): A former first-round pick and top prospect, Marrero is a .191/.246/.279 hitter in 373 Major League plate appearances across parts of seven seasons. He saw brief time with the Mets in 2022.
- Richie Martin (28): The top pick by the Orioles in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, Martin survived his Rule 5 season in the Majors but never found his stride, perhaps in part due to injuries. He’s now a career .212/.261/.311 hitter in 447 MLB plate appearances and has just a .240/.336/.366 slash in parts of two Triple-A seasons.
- JT Riddle (31): Riddle got some run with the Marlins in 2017-19 but has barely surfaced in the Majors since. He’s a .223/.261/.354 hitter in 797 MLB plate appearances.
- Dee Strange-Gordon (34): The fact that the 2022 Nats gave Strange-Gordon 100 innings at shortstop for the first time since 2013 says more about the team than the player. The three-time NL steals champ hasn’t logged 100 plate appearances in a season since 2019. He hit .305 in 59 plate appearances this year but did so without a walk and with just two extra-base hits. Since 2018, he’s batted .268/.293/.343 in 1150 plate appearances.
- Tyler Wade (28): Wade hit .264/.354/.328 in 145 plate appearances with the 2021 Yankees but has couldn’t duplicate it with the 2022 Angels. He’s a .214/.291/.298 hitter in the Majors but does have some defensive versatility to go along with a more palatable .279/.353/.408 slash in parts of four Triple-A seasons.
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What's the latest date a game 7 might go in the world seriesComment -
Been under the weather so if I don't go next couple of days I will hope to go if/when they come back home.Comment -
feel better JakerComment -
Today has to be the day for the Cleveland vs New York gameComment -
Go Indians, get it done today!Comment -
The Dodgers were baseball’s best team in the regular season, winning a franchise-record 111 games. They cleared the next-closest team, the Astros, by five games and finished ten clear of anyone else in the National League.
That didn’t translate to postseason success, however, as Los Angeles dropped three of four to the division-rival Padres in their Divisional Series. As they enter the offseason earlier than hoped, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Brandon Gomes met with reporters this afternoon (links via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).
The executives predictably expressed their disappointment with the early postseason exit, with Friedman suggesting it was the most painful series loss of his tenure atop baseball operations. Yet he quickly downplayed the need for sweeping organizational changes, pointing to the volatility inherent in a short playoff series. While Friedman credited the Padres for outplaying the Dodgers during the Division Series, he noted the lack of situational hitting which plagued L.A. in the postseason is the sort of thing that tends to ebb and flow throughout a year.
To that point about the team not requiring any kind of drastic overhaul, Friedman confirmed previous reports manager Dave Roberts would be back for an eighth season. “I feel like Dave and his coaching staff did an incredible job during the regular season to lead this team to 111 wins,” Friedman said, noting that the skipper would “100%” return to the role in 2023. “I don’t feel like it’s a switch that was then turned off or the players needed a different voice in those (playoff) games. That’s my personal belief.”
Friedman added he doesn’t expect there to be any changes to Roberts’ coaching staff, implying that everyone will be offered a chance to return. Each offseason, teams run the risk of seeing a coach depart to take on a more impactful role with another club. Bench coach Bob Geren and first base coach Clayton McCullough each got some managerial attention last winter, for instance, and it’s possible their names are floated again in searches this offseason.
Turning to the playing personnel, Friedman and Gomes touched on a few key decisions they’ll need to make early in the offseason. Los Angeles will see franchise icon Clayton Kershaw hit free agency for the second straight winter. Last offseason, the Dodgers surprisingly elected not to make Kershaw a qualifying offer. Friedman later explained the Dodgers didn’t want to pressure the future Hall of Famer into making a decision whether to return within the 10-day window allotted to qualified free agents. Kershaw didn’t make a decision until after the lockout, and he eventually re-signed on a one-year, $17MM guarantee in Spring Training.
Because Kershaw didn’t receive a qualifying offer last winter, he’s eligible for one again. Friedman didn’t explicitly rule out the QO this time around but strongly hinted they’d again opt against it. “Like I said last year, I think for him to take the time and put his head together with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what makes the most sense for their family is what we’re going to give him time to do,” the Dodger president said. Friedman called it his “strong hope” that Kershaw elects to return for a 16th season in L.A.
This year’s qualifying offer has been set at $19.65MM. That’s a perfectly reasonable price to pay for the three-time Cy Young winner, who remains among the best starters in the game on a rate basis. Kershaw pitched to a sterling 2.28 ERA across 126 1/3 innings this past season, striking out an above-average 27.8% of opponents against an elite 4.7% walk rate. He lost roughly a month apiece to hip and back injuries, but he didn’t seem to feel any ill effects of the forearm discomfort that cut his 2021 season short.
Kershaw has stated a few times in recent weeks that he’s presently leaning towards continuing his career. Immediately after the series loss, he told reporters that “as of right now, I’d say I’ll play again.” He added that spending time with his family early in the offseason had the potential to change his mind, however, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kershaw take his free agency process slower than most players do. Last winter’s decision seemed to come down to a return to L.A., joining his hometown Rangers, or retiring. It figures to be a similar story this winter, with both the Dodgers and Rangers sure to have significant interest in signing him. (Other teams would obviously call if Kershaw broadened his geographic range, but that’d be quite surprising).
While the ball is primarily in Kershaw’s court as to whether he returns to Dodger Stadium, the onus falls on the team to decide how to proceed with 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger. Bellinger is arbitration-eligible for a final time this winter, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive an $18.1MM salary if tendered a contract. Only Juan Soto has a higher arbitration projection, a testament to Bellinger’s early-career accomplishments. Those earned lofty salaries early in his career, and the arbitration system is designed so that salaries almost always escalate year-over-year.
However, Bellinger’s offensive production has evaporated over the past few seasons. He followed up his 47-homer MVP campaign with a slightly above-average showing (.239/.333/.455) in 2020. While that looked like a potential blip in an anomalous season, he’s seen a continued sharp drop-off at the plate. Bellinger hit .165/.240/.302 over 350 trips to the plate last year. He rebounded slightly this past season, but his .210/.265/.389 line across 550 plate appearances was still markedly worse than average.
Among 172 hitters with 800+ plate appearances over the past two seasons, Bellinger ranked dead last with a .256 on-base percentage. His .355 slugging mark is in the bottom ten. Bellinger’s 7.7% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout percentage are each worse than average, and his hard contact rate is down notably from its 2019 peak. Those extended struggles would seem to point towards Bellinger being non-tendered in lieu of such a large salary, but he’s been a strong plus outside the batter’s box. He swiped 14 bases in 17 attempts this past season and rated as an above-average baserunner overall. More importantly, he’s checked in as a plus defensive center fielder throughout his career, including a +5 runs above average from Statcast this season.
Neither Friedman nor Gomes made a definitive statement on the possibility of a non-tender, but Gomes generally praised Bellinger’s overall value. “Belli has had spurts of being really successful throughout the season,” the GM said. “I think elite defense has continued to be there, and we still think there’s (offensive) upside. So those are discussions we’re going to have moving forward as we look into what 2023 looks like.”
Friedman offered a similar sentiment when asked about the club’s $16MM option on third baseman Justin Turner. Friedman called Turner “a huge part of our success” but noted the front office needed more time to think through key roster decisions. Turner looked to be trending towards a $2MM buyout with a .256/.330/.403 showing in the first half of the season, but he made that a tough call for the front office by posting an excellent .319/.386/.503 line coming out of the All-Star Break.Comment -
Kind of figured the Phils would take game 1 so I took them on the F5 ML with Wheeler pitching. I still think this series could go either way but this was a tough spot for SD coming off the high of beating their rival. We'll see what happens in the games going forward because I still see this one going to 6 or 7 games because I feel like the edge in this series is razor thin.
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Phillies are destined. I think Yankees beat astrosComment -
That game was like a bad dream.Kind of figured the Phils would take game 1 so I took them on the F5 ML with Wheeler pitching. I still think this series could go either way but this was a tough spot for SD coming off the high of beating their rival. We'll see what happens in the games going forward because I still see this one going to 6 or 7 games because I feel like the edge in this series is razor thin.
Darvish pitched well but Wheeler was lights out.Comment -
Schwarber, Darvish, and castellanos make this a nightmare series for me as a cubs fan.Comment -
Schwarbers homerun was a bomb.Comment -
The Mariners season came to an end last week, as Seattle’s first playoff berth in two decades was cut short in the Divisional Round. After sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, the M’s were dealt a sweep by their division rivals in Houston.
With the year wrapped up, a couple key Mariners players are going under the knife. Corner outfielder Jesse Winker underwent a procedure on his left knee, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto informed reporters (including Jake GarcÃa of KING 5 News). He’ll also undergo neck surgery at some point in the future. A cervical disc bulge in his neck sent Winker to the injured list just before the start of the playoffs, causing him to miss Seattle’s postseason run.
Meanwhile, reliever Andrés Muñoz will need to undergo surgery on his foot, Dipoto said (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Muñoz pitched through whatever discomfort had been bothering him and didn’t spend any time on the injured list this season. He was also called upon by skipper Scott Servais in all three games of the ALDS.
Dipoto didn’t provide many specifics about either player’s surgeries, although there’s no indication either is expected to be hampered by next Spring Training. Winker figures to get an opportunity to again cement himself as the organization’s primary left fielder. Acquired from the Reds as part of a deal that saw the M’s assume the remainder of Eugenio Suárez’s contract, Winker had a tough debut season in the Pacific Northwest.
He hit .219/.344/.344 through 547 plate appearances. An excellent 15.4% walk rate was enough to prop up slightly above-average offensive production overall, but it was markedly below his .292/.392/.552 combined line from 2020-21. Paired with subpar defensive marks in left field, Winker rated right around replacement level. Seattle signed the 29-year-old to a two-year contract to avoid arbitration in June. He’ll make $8.25MM in 2023 and hit free agency at the end of the year.
Muñoz, on the other hand, should be a fixture on the roster for quite some time. The M’s signed the hard-throwing righty to a $7.5MM guarantee last offseason on the heels of two seasons mostly lost to Tommy John surgery. They tacked on an extra three seasons of potential club control, through 2028, a move that looks excellent after the 23-year-old returned with 65 innings of 2.49 ERA ball this season. Muñoz punched out an otherworldly 38.7% of opposing hitters on the back of a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider and he now looks like one of the best late-game weapons in the sport.
In other injury updates, Dipoto announced that backstop Cal Raleigh was headed to see a specialist after tearing a ligament in his left thumb (via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). It isn’t clear if he’ll eventually have to undergo surgery. Star center fielder Julio RodrÃguez played through a small finger fracture at the end of the year. Neither seems to be in danger of missing any time at the start of next season.Comment -
- Aaron Judge (31 years old next season)
What more can be said about Judge’s 2022 campaign? It was an all-time offensive performance. Judge hit 62 home runs, cementing himself in the history books and connecting on 16 more longballs than anyone else in the game this season. He slugged .686, the highest mark for a qualified hitter in a full schedule since 2004. Judge also led all qualified hitters this season in on-base percentage (.425) and finished fifth in batting average (.311). He’s the sport’s preeminent slugger, owner of an obscene 60.9% hard hit rate. Judge is also tremendously patient and has gotten some early-career strikeout concerns very much in check.
As far as 2023 goes, few players project to be more impactful. He’ll be the top overall player on the free agent market, and he’s in position to land one of the largest deals in major league history. The primary factor working against Judge is that he’s a bit on the older side for a first-time free agent, heading into his age-31 campaign. That’ll likely keep him from landing a decade-long commitment, but he has a chance to set the average annual value record for a position player over an eight or nine-year term.
There’s no question about Judge’s offensive potential, although he’s not likely to be a long-term fit in center fit. A natural right fielder, he played more center field for the Yankees this season due to the roster composition. He held his own, with public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average all pegging him as a hair better than par. Judge’s 6’7″, 280-plus pound build isn’t a traditional fit for center field, but he’s a good athlete and consistently posts plus defensive marks in right field. Teams are pursuing Judge primarily for what he can do in the batter’s box, but he’s a defensive asset as well and demonstrated this year he’s capable of manning center field if needed, at least early in the deal. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer, although it’s unlikely to have an impact on his market.Comment -
Big comeback win for the Padres today. I backed Philly because Nola was pitching but San Diego wore him down and finally broke through in the 5th. Now they go on the road but I think the series still sets up well for them pitching wise and I definitely give the Padres the edge in the bullpen. We'll see what happens but winning game 2 was almost a must win for San Diego if they are to go on and win this series.Comment -
Are the Astros cheating again?Comment -
What a comeback win, that game was so crucial...
Need this game 3 tomorrow with Musgrove on the mound.Comment -
There is no way the Astros are cheating again, if they get caught again they should be banned from Postseason for 10 years and have the championship vacated.Comment -
Rich Hill revealed on The Bradfo Sho podcast earlier this week that he’s had preliminary talks with the Red Sox about a return to Boston next season, saying that the two sides have “mutual interest” in a deal. Hill, 42, will be a free agent at the conclusion of the post-season.
“We’ve talked and had lunch with a few of the guys in the front office, and understand that there’s a mutual interest there,” Hill said. “Being able to stay home would be great.”
The Massachusetts native signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox last December, and turned in 124 1/3 innings of 4.27 ERA ball across 26 starts. Despite being the oldest active player in the majors, Hill didn’t show any signs of decline in 2022, and advanced metrics were all largely in line with his past few years of work. His strikeout rate dipped slightly from 22.7% in 2021 to 20.7% in 2022, but there were no major changes to his velocity and the lefty walked fewer batters as well (7% in ’22 down from 8.3% in ’21). He did miss a month in July due to a knee strain, and while there’s always some durability concern with a player entering their age-43 season, he’s still made 57 starts in the past two seasons.
Given the state of the Red Sox’ rotation and the fact that Hill lives in the Boston area, it’s no surprise that the two sides are interested in getting a deal done. Nick Pivetta is the most reliable starter under contract for next year, while rookie Brayan Bello showed promise in his 11 starts, but beyond that there’s a lot of uncertainty. Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha combined for 43 starts in 2022, but they join Hill as pending free agents. Former ace Chris Sale is a lock to opt in to the remaining two years, $55MM on his contract (with a $20MM vesting option in ’25), but he’s made just 11 starts in the past three seasons and while he’s expected to be fit for spring training, his injury history is a concern. The team turned to youngsters Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski for starts at points last season, but none is guaranteed to be a rotation option in 2023.
Ultimately, if the Red Sox are looking to compete in a crowded AL East they’ll need to upgrade their rotation. While Hill going into his age-43 season is not the big splash Sox fans may be hoping for, the team will surely need more than one starting pitcher addition, so a reunion with the veteran would solidify the rotation and likely wouldn’t come at a huge financial cost.Comment -
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