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In the current climate, with more supply than demand for power hitters, Jay Bruce's 3 years, $39 million is a solid deal for him.Comment -
As the free agent market continues to plod along, observers have continued to search for explanations. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that we’ve been weighing this topic this since late November, when it was already apparent that there were some forces at play that were slowing down signings. The full story has yet to be told, and won’t be until the market resolves itself, but it’s still worthwhile to think about the potential causes and ramifications.
In one of his last posts for Fangraphs, Dave Cameron observes that a lack of parity — on paper, at least — may be one cause of the glacial pace of signings. With leading organizations perhaps preferring to wait to see how their needs develop, and their top pursuers left unsure whether even significant investments will be enough, the current competitive imbalance could be helping to slow the market, Cameron argues.
Let’s take a look at a few links as the hot stove perhaps begins to sputter to life:
- Many others have also tackled the confounding nature of this year’s market in recent days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests there’s a “lack of engagement,” not just a lack of deals, in a report that indicates that some agents believe there may be a budding case for collusion. SB Nation’s Marc Normandin takes a historically oriented perspective, examining baseball’s history of collusive behavior and placing the currently stalled market in that context. SI’s Tom Verducci runs through the possible drivers of the slow-down. At Fangraphs, Travis Sawchik wonders if Boras’ approach still works, while Kiley McDaniel (welcome back!) examines the current state of teams’ efforts to find competitive advantage by allocating resources between scouting and analytics. (That last point ties into the view many have expressed that the slow market stems in part from an increasing convergence, as McDaniel terms it, in player valuations and strategies across organizations.)
- The Giants’ top offer to Jay Bruce was at the three-year level but would have promised about $10MM less to him than the $39MM he ultimately scored from the Mets, according to reports from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link) and Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It seems that San Francisco was hoping to get some pop into the lineup at a bit of a discount, which is certainly understandable given the still-lengthy list of potential targets available in free agency and on the trade market. One additional name that has long been linked to the Giants, Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates, remains of interest, Nightengale further notes. There’s also a case to be made that the Giants ought to take the opportunity presented by the slow market development while forgetting about the luxury tax line this year, as Andrew Baggarly writes for The Athletic. Of course, that’s also true for a few other teams, and it’s arguable that such interest will help prop things up once player movement begins in earnest.
- There are still ongoing signals that the Cubs could make a splash. As Paul Sullivan writes for the Chicago Tribune, surprise winter additions are fairly commonplace in Wrigleyville. Manager Joe Maddon suggested yesterday that he believes the front office is still looking to build out the roster, Madeline Kenney of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Maddon spoke highly of both Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, Kenney writes, and the skipper also hinted that president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer may not yet be done in adding pieces to the bullpen mix for the 2018 campaign.
- Seeking value will no doubt still drive Chicago, but it’s an imperative for the Indians. Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer names 15 free agents who might represent highly affordable targets for the Cleveland organization. Buttressing the relief corps and adding a righty bat seem to be the top priorities, Hoynes notes.
- Free agent outfielder Jayson Werth has given no indication that he’s readying for retirement. To the contrary, he tells ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that he believes he can play for multiple additional seasons (Twitter links). There’s been little indication to this point that any particular teams are in pursuit of the 38-year-old after a rough and injury-limited 2017 campaign, but that could change once the market gets moving. Werth has posted decidedly subpar offensive lines in two of the past three seasons, but did hit at a league-average-ish .244/.355/.417 clip in 2016 and has continued to hit well against lefties.
- Veteran righty Francisco Rodriguez tells Jon Heyman of Fan Rag that he’s readying for a return and feels he can bounce back from a miserable 2017 season. The 36-year-old almost always delivered results in his 15 prior seasons of MLB action but was tagged for nine homers and 22 earned runs in just 25 1/3 innings last year, with a swinging-strike rate that dropped out of double-digits for just the second time in his long and excellent career. “I still have plenty left,” Rodriguez tells Heyman. “I am hoping to get an opportunity to help a team win a championship. I’m physically way better than I was last year. I’m ready. If I didn’t have it, I’d say it. I’m a straight shooter – my own worst critic.” Rodriguez is not receiving much interest at this point but says he’ll gladly throw for scouts to earn another chance.
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collussion!Comment -
New York MetsVerified account @Mets 4m4 minutes ago
New York Mets Retweeted Sarah Zurn
days until pitchers and catchers report. We can't wait either!
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Matt Harvey avoided a salary arbitration hearing when he reached agreement on a one-year, $5.625 million deal with the New York Mets.
That's a $500,000 increase over Harvey's salary in 2017, when he went 5-7 with a 6.70 ERA in 19 appearances.Comment -
Harvey might be finished, poor year last year.Comment -
NEW YORK -- The New York Mets have reached one-year deals with starters Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey and settled with five other players.
Relievers Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos and Hansel Robles, catcher Travis d'Arnaud and infielder Wilmer Flores also agreed Friday to one-year contracts and avoided arbitration.
Starter Zack Wheeler was the only Mets player who exchanged salary figures with the team. He asked for $1.9 million, and the club offered $1.5 million.
While many of his Mets rotation mates got hurt or hit hard last year, deGrom ($7.4 million) was a rock all season for a team that finished 70-92. He went 15-10 with a 3.53 ERA in 31 starts, emerging as the staff ace with Syndergaard injured.
The 2014 NL Rookie of the Year, deGrom ranked second in the National League with 239 strikeouts last season and fifth with 201 1/3 innings -- 81 more than any other New York pitcher. He set career highs in both categories, as well as wins, though his ERA was his highest in four major league seasons.
The 29-year-old right-hander earned $4.1 million last season, and the Mets might consider giving him a multiyear contract at some point. He can become a free agent after the 2020 season.
Perhaps no injury was more damaging and deflating to the Mets last year than Syndergaard's torn lat muscle on April 30. The fireballing ace returned in late September for some brief work at the end of a lost season, finishing 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA in only 30 1/3 innings.
After bulking up during the previous winter, Syndergaard altered his workouts this offseason under the supervision of Eric Cressey, a performance coach who assisted Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer, and Shane Rye, co-founder of Cressey's company.
The 25-year-old Syndergaard, who made his major league debut in May 2015, will get $2,975,000 after his first year of arbitration eligibility. His salary was $605,500 last season, when he averaged a career-high 99.6 mph with his fastball. The right-hander was an All-Star in 2016, going 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 218 strikeouts in 183 2/3 innings.
Diminished following a string of injuries, Harvey ($5,625,000) is coming off a miserable 2017 season, in which he went 5-7 with a 6.70 ERA in 92 2/3 innings. The former ace gave up 21 home runs and struck out only 67 against 47 walks while earning $5,040,984. He missed two-plus months with a right shoulder injury and was mostly terrible after returning in September.
It was his second consecutive rough season following a successful comeback in 2015 from Tommy John surgery. Harvey's 2016 campaign was cut short when he had a rib removed during surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, a compression of nerves in the area between the neck and armpit. He and the Mets hoped that procedure would help him regain his All-Star form, but Harvey regressed even more last year.
The right-hander also was suspended by the team for three days in May after skipping a home game following a late night on the town -- yet another personal transgression in a career filled with tabloid-fodder drama.
Harvey, who turns 29 in March, can become a free agent after the season, so this might be the final Mets go-around for a polarizing starting pitcher who once appeared destined for greatness.
Familia ($7,925,000) served a domestic-violence suspension at the start of last season and missed a large chunk of time because of a blood clot in his right shoulder.
Familia had surgery in May to repair a blocked artery near his right armpit and didn't return until late August. He finished 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA and six saves in 26 games while earning a salary of $6,694,672. He can become a free agent after this season.
The 28-year-old Familia saved 94 games for New York from 2015-16. He was an All-Star in 2016, when he set a club record with a major league-best 51 saves. The Mets are counting on him to regain his form this year and once again help anchor a bullpen that was one of baseball's worst last season.
D'Arnaud ($3,475,000) set career highs with 16 homers and 57 RBIs while batting .244 in 112 games. He managed only a .293 on-base percentage, however, and his defense is suspect, especially his throwing. He made $1,875,000 last season.
Flores ($3.4 million) batted .271 last season with 18 homers and a .795 OPS, all career highs. He had 52 RBIs in 110 games but didn't play after Sept. 2 because of a broken nose.
Ramos ($9,225,000) was an All-Star in 2016 with Miami, then was traded to New York in late July last year. He finished 2-4 with a 3.99 ERA and 27 saves combined for the Marlins and Mets, and he earned $6.5 million.
Robles ($900,000) was demoted to the minors for almost two months last season before finishing 7-5 with a 4.92 ERA in 46 big league games. He made $553,125.
Wheeler returned to the mound last year after missing two seasons because of Tommy John surgery. The righty got off to an encouraging start but faded fast and finished 3-7 with a 5.21 ERA in 17 starts covering 86 1/3 innings.
Wheeler lost his last five decisions and didn't pitch after July 22 because of a stress reaction in his right arm. His salary was $800,000.Comment -
Palmeiro might just go play baseball in Japan since he isn't getting picked up.Comment -
The Mets have agreed to sign first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, pending a physical. Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reported the news via Twitter. Nightengale reported earlier tonight that discussions between the two sides were serious, with Jon Heyman of FanRag confirming shortly thereafter.
As we noted earlier in the evening, Gonzalez was recently traded from the Dodgers to the Braves in a deal heavily driven by luxury tax considerations. By sending the 35-year-old first baseman to Atlanta (along with Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Charlie Culberson) in exchange for former Dodger Matt Kemp, Los Angeles will be able to stay under the tax cap for 2018. The Braves granted him his release the following Monday, leaving Gonzalez free to sign with any team willing to pay him the MLB minimum salary. Atlanta, of course, is still on the hook for just under $17MM of his guaranteed 2018 salary.
Presumably, Gonzalez will compete with 22-year-old Dominic Smith for the Mets’ first base job in spring training. GM Sandy Alderson has gone on record saying that the Mets wouldn’t make any moves that eliminate Smith as a possibility at first base, but the presence of a five-time All Star with a chance to bounce back to above-average offensive production leaves the Mets some room to give their first baseman of the future some more seasoning at the Triple-A level. That’s now a much more viable contingency plan if Smith struggles to produce offensively the way he did last season. Indeed, as Heyman notes, there are questions about whether Smith is ready for the majors and in good enough shape to reach his potential.
The deal clearly carries very little risk for the Mets, as they’re only obligated to pay Gonzalez the $545K MLB minimum salary in 2018. And yet the upside of this signing should not be taken lightly. As recently as 2015, the former number one overall pick slashed .275/.350/.480 with 28 homers, good for a 129 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR. His performance has declined in recent seasons, possibly due to age and absolutely due to injuries, but if he can stay healthy, there’s a chance Gonzalez could bounce back from a -1.1 fWAR 2017 campaign and reward the Mets for bringing him into the fold. As we already noted today, he also carries a lifetime 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, making him a potentially great asset even in a part-time role.
The Florida Marlins selected Gonzalez out of Eastlake High School in Chula Vista, CA with the number one overall pick in the 2000 draft. His MLB debut came with the Rangers on April 18th, 2004, but he didn’t truly catch fire until then-Padres-GM Kevin Towers acquired him (along with Chris Young and Terrmel Sledge) for the 2006 season. Gonzalez went on to post ten consecutive seasons of at least 2.9 fWAR between the Padres, Red Sox and Dodgers (38.3 fWAR total during that span), homering 283 times during that span. All told, his .288/.359/.488 lifetime batting line paints a picture of a very impressive career.Comment -
Mets always signing disabled guys. Good.Comment -
After initialing filing for arbitration both Kris Bryant and Addison Russell settled with the Cubs on one year deals for 2018 with Bryant receiving a record for a first time arb eligible player. The Cubs will pay him $10.85 million next season while Russell will receive $3.2 million. Justin Grimm remains the only unsigned arb eligible playerComment -
A tidy rundown of the Red Sox's arbitration settlements today: LHP Drew Pomeranz, $8.5M; SS Xander Bogaerts, $7.05M; Jackie Bradley Jr., $6.1M; Joe Kelly, $3.825M; Eduardo Rodriguez, $2.375M; Brock Holt, $2.225M; Sandy Leon, $1.95M; Christian Vazquez, $1.45M; Brandon Workman, $835,000.Comment -
Continuing a series looking at potential trading partners for the Marlins, let’s look at perhaps the most talked about target for Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto: the Atlanta Braves. Per a new Bleacher Report ranking, the Braves have the #1 farm system in baseball, while the Marlins (though improved) ranks only 26th. Clearly, a trade could be in order.
The first thing that comes to my mind when thinking about such a trade is the traditional “red flag” of trading premier players to another team in your division. The Braves are farther down their rebuild, though are coming off a somewhat disappointing season in that some of their top prospects, notably #1 overall pick Dansby Swanson, under-performed.
However, my sense of the “sports zeitgeist” is that trading to divisional or conference rivals is less a concern than in previous years. Didn’t the Cavs just trade Kyrie Irving to the Celtics, after all? Plus, its not like the Marlins and Braves are the NL East’s equivalent of Yankees vs. Red Sox.
There’s an excellent Baseball Prospectus article from 2015, appropriately titled “So You’ve Decided To Trade Within Your Division”, which also helps ease such fears.
So, putting that issue aside, let’s look at the details. Per Ken Rosenthal and others, the Marlins are not particularly looking to toss in bad contracts to trade along with Yelich and Realmuto, though the Braves could use a third baseman such as Martin Prado. The Fish are looking for top prospects first and foremost, so let’s look at the Braves system for possible trading chips.
PITCHING GALORE
Based on MLB Pipeline’s rankings, seven of the Braves top eight prospects are pitchers. It would seem reasonable that at least two of these pitchers should be obtainable for these Yelich and Realmuto, particularly if the Fish are truly trying to get other teams to “overpay”.
The Braves have six pitchers in the MLB Top 100 prospect list. Any of these would instantly become the Marlins’ #1 overall pitching prospect. Though several of these top arms are at a relatively early of development, this would still match the Marlins timeline for success, which is likely in the 2020-2021 time frame.
Four of these young pitchers were former first round picks. Kolby Allard was drafted in the first round in 2015, and is now considered the top lefty prospect in all of baseball Top 100 Prospects (#22), Top 10 LHP Prospects (#1). Allard is something of a Tom Glavine-type of pitcher with a low-mid 90s heater and excellent control, and is targeted to make his big-league debut this season.
The other three first-rounders are righties. Kyle Wright Top 100 Prospects (#31), Top 10 RHP Prospects (#9), yet another excellent arm out of Vanderbilt, was the 5th overall pick in the 2017 draft. Wright is a true pitcher, and still projects to mature into his 6’4” frame. Additionally, I am biased towards college arms; particularly those who have matured at high end programs such as Wright has.
A 2015 prep product, Mike Soroka, Top 100 Prospects (#34), Top 10 RHP Prospects (#10), is a tall Canadian righty who dominated in double-A last year with a hard sinker and excellent control.
High school draft pick Ian Anderson Top 100 Prospects (#51), picked 3rd overall in 2016, did well in single-A in his first full year of pro ball. He is projected to be in the minors for several more years, but also has a high up side on the bump.
Three left-handers round out the top pitching prospects for the Braves. Luiz Gohara, Joey Wentz, and Max Fried are projected with different timelines to reach the majors. These would likely be a secondary arm in a mega-trade such as this, but any would be considered as one of the top pitchers in the Marlins minor leagues if they came over.
CATCHING DEPTH
Should J.T. Realmuto be sent to Atlanta, it makes sense that a minor league catcher be sent to Miami in return. Luckily, Atlanta has 3 catchers ranked in their top 30 list. Alex Jackson, ranked 15th in the Braves organization, is their top prospect behind the plate.
The former first rounder was drafted out of high school in 2014, and would be an obvious target for the Marlins in a trade. He has bounced around to different positions, so his defensive abilities are not graded as highly as their other top catchers Lucas Herbert or Brett Cumberland, but is seen as having a higher ceiling as a hitter.
OUTFIELDERS
Top Braves prospect Ronald Acuna Top 100 Prospects (#6), Top 10 OF Prospects (#3) is one this year’s top candidates for NL Rookie of the Year. Getting Acuna, and all-around outfield talent who hit .344 last year in triple-A, would be a true coup for the Fish and would clearly help refill the talent pool which was emptied this off season.
Dustin Peterson, a high energy player ranked 13th in the Braves system, could make an impact in the majors in 2018 as well. Christian Pache is ranked 10th on the Braves farm, and is a high-end athlete, but is still several years away from seeing MLB action.Comment -
I probably would pick up Palmeiro for my Adult Baseball League. The only thing is that there is no pay. He would actually pay to play. lolComment -
Re-signing utilityman Howie Kendrick (for two years and $7 million) is the latest reflection that new Nationals skipper Dave Martinez is going to wind up managing almost entirely the same team Dusty Baker had a shot with last year.
The biggest change will be a full season with a healed up Adam Eaton, while the most notable camp competition might be for the last slot in the rotation, with NRIs Edwin Jackson and Tommy Milone and prospect Erick Fedde in the mix.Comment -
Breaking: The Giants have agreed to acquire former National League MVP Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates. (via multiple reports & first reported by the Athletic)Comment -
Brewers ace Jimmy Nelson is “way ahead of schedule” in his rehab from shoulder surgery, reports MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. The initial plan for Nelson had been to begin a throwing program at the beginning of Spring Training, but Nelson tells McCalvy that he’ll now begin throwing next week. Nelson credits his accelerated timeline to regular use of a hyperbaric chamber, improved conditioning and diet as well as rigorous arm care and physical therapy.
The shortened timeline is music to the Brewers’ ears, though an exact timetable for Nelson remains uncertain following a September operation which, as McCalvy notes, repaired his shoulder in three separate places. Milwaukee already signed Jhoulys Chacin to a two-year deal, and they’ll return right-handers Chase Anderson and Zach Davies as well. That trio will be relied upon heavily while Nelson rehabs, with other candidates to take the ball every fifth day including Brent Suter, Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, Junior Guerra, Jorge Lopez and Aaron Wilkerson (among others).
Elsewhere in the NL Central…
- Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is currently planning to retire after his current contract expires in 2020, he tells MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Molina says his body still feels up to the rigors of his typically large workload, adding that he has no plans to cut back on his playing time at the age of 35. There’s time, of course, for Molina’s mind to change on the matter of retirement. If he remains healthy and productive through the 2020 season and the Cardinals remain in contention, for instance, it’s not difficult to envision a change of heart. That said, Langosch notes that Molina sounded much more definitive on the matter this time around than he did a year ago when discussing his future after signing a three-year, $60MM extension that spans the 2018-20 seasons.
- Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts was dismissive of the notion that collusion has slowed the free-agent market in an interview with Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required & recommended). Ricketts pointed out that in previous years, some teams have somewhat quietly inked new television deals or had those deals kick in, which has led to unexpected spending. (Ricketts doesn’t mention instances by name, though that was very likely a component in the D-backs’ signing of Zack Greinke, for instance.) Asked about the possibility of further spending for his own team, Ricketts replied: “Theo has the resources to do whatever he needs to do to win on the field. … I don’t know what’s going to happen with the guys that are out there, whether it’s a good fit for us.”
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Cubs going to be dishing out some luxury tax on Bryant and Harper.Comment -
Jays sign Curtis Granderson to a 1 year deal worth $5M. The big splash Toronto fans have been waiting for all offseason.
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Big moves recently. Blue Jays trying to stay significantComment
