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Red Sox have avoided arbitration with pitcher Steven Wright, settling on a $1.1 million salary for 2018.
Wright, who is under investigation by MLB and could face a suspension after getting arrested in November on domestic assault charges that have since been retired by the Williamson County (Tenn.) court, is expected to compete for a rotation spot in spring training.
Boston has 11 other arbitration-eligible players, including Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr.Comment -
Rafael Palmeiro making a comeback?
Will he get signed?Comment -
He's going to be the most drug tested player in MLB if he somehow does make a comeback.Rafael Palmeiro making a comeback?
Will he get signed?Comment -
The Blue Jays and Rangers “appear” to be among teams with interest in Marlins center fielder Christian Yelich, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Yelich has landed on several clubs’ radars this offseason, owing to his impressive track record, long-term affordability and age (26), but he may end up sticking with the Marlins. Miami understandably wants an enormous return for Yelich, presumably in the form of prospects, so it’s worth noting that Toronto is ninth and Texas 21st in Baseball America’s most recent farm system rankings (subscription required and recommended).
More from Cafardo on Toronto and a couple other clubs:
- The Blue Jays are also interested in free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain, though they’d move him to right field, per Cafardo. While Cain does have some experience in right, he has spent the vast majority of his career in center and thrived there. Toronto has an excellent center fielder in Kevin Pillar, who’d form two-thirds of a great defensive outfield with Cain, but whether the latter would be willing to give up his typical position is unclear.
- Unlike Pillar and Cain, free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez is not a defensive asset. As such, the Red Sox will mostly use Martinez as a designated hitter if they sign him, Cafardo relays. With three better defensive outfielders in the fold in Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, deploying the big-hitting Martinez at DH would be logical. There are a couple potential complications, however, with Martinez reportedly preferring to remain an outfielder and the presence of DH Hanley Ramirez in Boston. The Sox may attempt to trade Ramirez if they add Martinez, though it could be difficult to find a taker; after all, Ramirez is expensive ($22MM in 2018 and, if he reaches 497 plate appearances this year and then passes a physical, another $22MM in 2019), aging (34) and coming off a poor season.
- The rebuilding Tigers have gotten inquiries about third baseman/outfielder Nicholas Castellanos from “a few teams,” Cafardo writes. Castellanos is under control for the next two years, including at a projected $7.6MM in 2018. The Tigers tried earlier this offseason to lock him up for the long haul with an extension, but those talks didn’t lead to a deal. Castellanos, who will turn 26 in March, was a bright spot for Detroit’s offense last season. Not only did he slash .272/.320/.490 with 26 home runs in 665 PAs, but Castellanos was something of a Statcast darling, evidenced by a .366 xwoBA (compared to a .347 wOBA) and the majors’ 10th-most barrels.
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Yelich is a prizeComment -
Can't believe Padres traded Solarte to the Blue Jays. I really liked Solarte. He was probably the best clutch hitter for the Padres.Comment -
Happy birthday, Charlie Hough, great competiitor, an all-time favorite. In 1983, Rangers’ pitchers started throwing footballs pre-game to help strengthen their arms. I asked Charlie if it was helping. “I don’t know,’’ he said, “but we lead the league in third down conversions.” ESPNComment -
I could see the Marlins signing him. They're a pathetic organization.Rafael Palmeiro making a comeback?
Will he get signed?Comment -
The 2017 season was the second straight sub-.500 showing by the Pirates, who finished 75-87 and continued to distance themselves from a 2013-15 stretch in which they made the playoffs three straight times. It has now been three-plus months since the Pirates last took the field, though it’s not yet clear which direction they’ll take heading into 2018. While owner Bob Nutting would like to both buy and sell this winter, the Pirates have neither acquired any established major leaguers nor traded any away during what has been a plodding offseason across the majors. With spring training set to commence next month, action figures to pick up soon in Pittsburgh and other big league cities. If the Pirates do indeed sell players in the coming weeks, they have at least a few who would garner respectable returns, as evidenced below…
One-Year Rentals
Andrew McCutchen, OF ($14.5MM): Getting rid of McCutchen would be agonizing for the Pirates, who have seen the center fielder develop into a star and a beloved figure in their city since drafting him in 2005. Nevertheless, considering the Pirates have taken inquiries for him this winter a year after nearly trading him, it’s quite possible he has played his last game with the club. Given that he’s entering his last year of team control, McCutchen’s value now is likely higher than it’s going to be during the season. And the 31-year-old helped his stock in 2017 by hitting .279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs in 650 plate appearances, thus rebounding from a mediocre 2016 at the plate.
While McCutchen isn’t any kind of a defensive asset at this point, his bat still carries plenty of value, which has led to interest from the Mets and Giants. Getting McCutchen’s money off the books would appeal to the low-payroll Pirates, but that alone wouldn’t suffice – unsurprisingly, they also want a legitimate return for their longtime franchise face.
Jordy Mercer, SS ($6.5MM projected arbitration salary): The Pirates are reportedly content to keep the 31-year-old Mercer, who likely wouldn’t bring back much in a trade anyway. Mercer’s a lifetime .256/.316/.383 hitter who has only drawn up-and-down reviews from advanced defensive metrics since he became a regular in 2013.
Sean Rodriguez, UTIL ($5.75MM): Rodriguez was part of an August 2017 trade with the Braves in which he returned to the Pirates for struggling first base/outfield prospect Connor Joe. If Rodriguez’s value was low then, it’s in an even worse state now, given that he closed the season by hitting .168/.255/.274 in 106 PAs in Pittsburgh. Between the Braves and Pirates, Rodriguez batted an ugly .167/.276/.295 and struck out in 37.3 percent of PAs. In fairness to Rodriguez, it’s worth noting that an offseason car crash and the shoulder surgery he underwent thereafter likely played a part in his forgettable year.
Daniel Hudson, RHRP ($5.5MM): The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t produce to the level the Pirates hoped when they signed him as a free agent last winter, as he logged a 4.38 ERA with 9.63 K/9 and 4.82 BB/9 across 61 2/3 innings. More than half the league showed interest in Hudson in the weeks before he joined the Pirates, though, and that was off a season in Arizona that came with some rough patches. So, perhaps Hudson would be able to bring back something of a worth in a trade in the wake of last year’s unspectacular output.
Two Years Of Control
Francisco Cervelli, C ($22MM through 2019): Cervelli was a revelation for the Pirates in 2015, leading them to extend him the next year, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective recently. Injuries helped limit Cervelli to 182 games during the previous two seasons, including 81 in 2017. While Cervelli, 31, slashed a respectable .249/.342/.370 in 304 trips to the plate to continue a solid offensive career as a Buc, the excellent pitch framing he showed off in prior years was not on display. Now, considering Cervelli’s price tag, injury issues, 2017 defensive drop-off and the lack of contenders looking for a starting catcher, this doesn’t seem like the ideal time to move him. Interestingly, though, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggested that there were some trade rumors about Cervelli during the Winter Meetings last month.
Ivan Nova, RHP ($17MM through 2019): The unexpected success Nova experienced as a Pirate in late 2016 after coming over in a trade with the Yankees didn’t quite transfer last year. Still, in the first season of a three-year, $26MM deal, Nova ate innings (187) and posted a playable 4.14 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 and a 45.7 percent groundball rate. On one hand, you’d expect plenty of teams in need of a capable back-end starter to have interest in the reasonably priced 30-year-old if the Pirates shop him. On the other, we were among many around the game to overestimate his market when he was a free agent in a weak class of starters a winter ago.
Gerrit Cole, RHP ($7.5MM projected salary): As a Scott Boras client whose team control is running out, it seems to be a matter of when – not if – the Pirates trade Cole. The 27-year-old fireballer has drawn widespread interest this offseason from teams seeking a mid-/front-of-the-rotation starter. The Yankees, Cubs and Twins are among many clubs that have inquired about Cole, who’d very likely bring back an impressive haul in a deal.
David Freese, 3B/1B ($4.25MM in 2018 and either a $6MM club option or a $500K buyout in 2019): There hasn’t been much trade buzz this offseason regarding Freese, who may lose playing time in Pittsburgh in 2018. The soon-to-be 35-year-old offered unexciting production for the fifth straight year in 2017, when he hit .263/.368/.371 in 503 PAs, though a roughly average player on an affordable salary shouldn’t be seen as valueless.
George Kontos, RHRP ($2.7MM projected salary): There doesn’t seem to be much value here – the Giants gave Kontos to the Pirates for nothing last August, after all – yet the 32-year-old has held his own in the majors. Kontos’ ERA ranged from 2.33 to 3.39 from 2014-17, and he has typically limited free passes in his career (2.62 BB/9). Further, while Kontos was a below-average strikeout pitcher in past seasons, he did register a career-high 9.5 K/9 and a personal-best 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate in 2017. He also recorded a .269 xwOBA against, beating out newly minted $52MM man Wade Davis (.289), among others.
Longer-Term Assets
Gregory Polanco, OF (controllable through 2023 for $54MM): Hamstring injuries helped limit Polanco to 108 games and just 0.5 fWAR in 411 PAs last season, when he batted a meager .251/.305/.391. While the 26-year-old has never been an offensive dynamo, his baserunning, defense and contract have combined to make him a valuable player. Barring a shocking trade, he’ll attempt to bounce back in Pittsburgh next season.
Starling Marte, OF (controllable through 2021 for $41.5MM): Marte was among the most valuable assets in the sport from 2013-16, when he hit, ran and defended his way to 16.4 fWAR, but the shine came off to a degree last season. Not only did Marte sit 80 games on account of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, but he wasn’t any kind of force during the 77 contests in which he did appear. The 29-year-old hit a career-low .275/.333/.379 and experienced a dramatic decline in the power department, which has never been a major strength for him anyway. Like Polanco, though, there’s nothing to suggest the Pirates are interested in moving Marte or his still-appealing contract.
Josh Harrison, UTIL ($10MM salary in 2018 and club options totaling $22MM from 2019-20): As with McCutchen and Cole, Harrison has been a popular name in rumors this winter. Perhaps the Pirates should part with the 30-year-old Harrison now, given his recent inconsistency. Harrison broke out in 2014, but he followed that up with subpar showings from 2015-16 before rebounding to enjoy a quality season last year. The Yankees, Mets and Blue Jays are a few clubs that have pursued the infielder/outfielder this winter.
Felipe Rivero ($3.1MM projected salary; controllable through 2021): As an elite, flamethrowing reliever who’s under wraps for the foreseeable future, the left-handed Rivero is clearly one of the most valuable players in the Pittsburgh organization. The 26-year-old is now coming off the best full season of his career, during which he tossed 75 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball and notched 10.51 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 52.9 percent grounder rate. Rivero also converted 21 of 23 save chances, and if he remains in the ninth inning for the Pirates, it’s only going to drive up his price in arbitration. There is a case to be made that the Pirates should shop Rivero now when his value’s at its zenith, especially if they don’t expect to compete in 2018, though it seems highly unlikely to happen.
While Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams and Tyler Glasnow are among other Pirates with trade value, there’s no reason to expect the team to market any of those pre-arb players.Comment -
I love watching a good knuckler!Comment -
Reliever Carson Smith will avoid arbitration, settling with the Red Sox on an $850,000 salary for 2018. Smith, who returned late last season from Tommy John elbow surgery, projects to be a pivotal piece of Boston's bullpen.Comment -
The Phillies announced on Monday that former big leaguers Kevin Frandsen, Kevin Jordan and Kevin Stocker will join their broadcast team. According to the announcement, that trio of former Phillies will rotate through road games and serve as color analysts alongside play-by-play broadcaster Scott Franzke. The 35-year-old Frandsen is the most recent member of the group to have suited up in the Majors, appearing in seven games for the 2015 Giants. Frandsen seemingly never made a formal declaration of his intention to retire as a player, though he has not appeared in a professional game since that 2015 season. It seems fair to assume, then, that he’ll embark upon a new career as he breaks into the media world.
A couple more notes on the Phillies and some other east coast clubs…
- In less pleasant news, third baseman Maikel Franco was suspended from his team in the Dominican Winter League for “violating the organization’s discipline code,” per Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes. Franco and teammates Moises Sierra, Garabez Rosa and Eduardo de Oleo were photographed partying at a Dominican club as late as 6am on the day of one of the team’s playoff games, per the report. It was a disappointment for both his DWL team and the Phillies alike, prompting an apology from the third baseman: “I apologize to the team, the fans and our sponsors, it’s something that will not happen again,” said Franco. The 25-year-old Franco, who impressed mightily as a rookie in 2015, has regressed in each of the past two seasons and is coming off his worst MLB campaign to date. In 623 plate appearances, Franco slashed just .230/.281/.409 with 24 homers.
- Orioles skipper Buck Showalter is overseeing what Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com calls a “delicate situation” on the left side of the infield, where Manny Machado has reportedly indicated a desire to move to a shortstop position that would otherwise be occupied by Tim Beckham. While Showalter isn’t tipping his hand, he says there’s been progress in resolving who’ll play where — assuming, at least, that Machado is ultimately retained by the O’s. The manager says he has “positioned us to maneuver regardless of what happens between now and the season starting.”
- Showalter and Kubatko also cover a variety of other topics of interest to the Baltimore faithful in that as well as another post, focusing in particular on a trio of lefties. Rule 5 pick Nestor Cortes has drawn early praise from the skipper, though of course he’ll still need to earn and keep an active roster spot. Elsewhere, the general prognosis on key reliever Zach Britton seems to be positive, though that’s not to say there’s any change to the mid-summer timeline for him to return from his Achilles tear. Kubatko also held an interesting chat with Richard Bleier, who recognizes that his sparkling 1.99 ERA from 2017 doesn’t guarantee him anything entering camp.
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Kevin Stocker should do a good jobComment -
It's too bad that there's no news on Adrian Gonzalez. Looks like he is one of those guys that will evaporate to retirement. Nobody knows who he is now.Comment -
Real or not? Reasons for the sloooow hot stove season
Nobody is signing, and we’re all wondering why. It’s January. It’s time to start working out, throwing some long toss and hitting the cages, and many of the top free agents are still seeking homes for 2018. In a special edition of Real or Not, let’s examine the reasons why.
This free-agent class is bad
I think everybody except Scott Boras believes this. With such an uninspiring group, teams simply aren’t showing any desperation to sign these guys. Rather than be stuck with the “winner’s curse” and overpay for a risky investment, they’ll wait for the demands to come down. But is it really a bad class? It is! I looked at Keith Law’s top 15 free agents from his annual rankings, comparing the two-year combined WAR totals for this year to the previous two free-agents classes, as well as to next year’s potential class.
2015-16 top 15 free agents: 113.5 WAR
2016-17 top 15 free agents: 81.7 WAR
2017-18 top 15 free agents: 67.1 WAR
2018-19 potential top 15: 116.8 WAR (over 2016-17 seasons)
Here’s the chart of the four groups, and while it doesn’t factor in the overall depth, it gives a good barometer of the best players available:
Comparing the cream of recent free-agent crops
Scott Boras controls many of the top free agentsYu Darvish 6.4 Yoenis Cespedes 9.2 Jason Heyward 12.7 Bryce Harper 6.3 Lorenzo Cain 6.5 Dexter Fowler 6.4 Zack Greinke 13.6 Manny Machado 10.2 Zack Cozart 5.9 Justin Turner 8.9 David Price 10.6 Clayton Kershaw* 10.2 Jake Arrieta 5.3 Rich Hill 5.7 Justin Upton 7.6 Josh Donaldson 11.8 Carlos Santana 6.4 Edwin Encarnacion 8.4 Yoenis Cespedes 10.4 Charlie Blackmon 10.5 J.D. Martinez 6.0 Wilson Ramos 4.1 Alex Gordon 9.4 Drew Pomeranz 8.4 Eric Hosmer 5.0 Neil Walker 4.8 Chris Davis 7.0 Elvis Andrus* 8.4 Alex Cobb 2.4 Kenley Jansen 3.9 Dexter Fowler 4.0 Brian Dozier 10.9 Todd Frazier 6.8 Josh Reddick 6.1 Johnny Cueto 6.5 David Price* 4.8 Carlos Gomez 1.9 Ian Desmond 4.7 Scott Kazmir 5.0 Andrew Miller 7.1 Logan Morrison 4.1 Aroldis Chapman 5.2 Mike Leake 4.4 Craig Kimbrel 4.5 Jay Bruce 3.5 Jeremy Hellickson 2.9 John Lackey 6.8 A.J. Pollock 3.4 Mike Moustakas 2.5 Jason Castro 2.3 Wei-Yin Chen 5.6 Daniel Murphy 7.4 Jhoulys Chacin 2.6 Carlos Beltran 3.0 Howie Kendrick 6.5 Marwin Gonzalez 5.5 Yonder Alonso 1.8 Jose Bautista 6.1 Austin Jackson 3.4 Gio Gonzalez 7.4 Total 67.1 Total 81.7 Total 113.5 Total 116.8
Boras is notorious for having his clients wait as long as possible to sign. In the past, Max Scherzer and Prince Fielder didn’t sign until late January. Obviously, both sides are playing a little poker, and Boras has certainly proved to be a master in getting his players maximum dollar. In Fielder’s case, there didn’t even appear to be a strong second bidder and he got a one-dimensional player paid $214 million. Boras often plays to the owner and bypasses the front office, or waits for the anxiety level of an interested team to increase.
Indeed, five of Keith’s top 13 free agents are Boras clients -- Jake Arrieta, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Gomez and Mike Moustakas. None have signed. In Arrieta’s case, for example, Boras may wait for Yu Darvish to sign, or even Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Once there are fewer starting pitchers available, maybe a team looking for a pitcher -- like the Cubs or Rangers -- will have more interest in his guy.Comment -
The struggles of left-hander Justin Wilson following a trade to the Cubs perplexed not only Chicago evaluators but execs throughout the league, writes Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required and highly recommended). Sharma spoke to both Cubs manager Joe Maddon and GM Jed Hoyer about Wilson’s troubles, and Maddon made it clear that he views Wilson as an important part of the ’pen for the upcoming 2018 season. Hoyer, meanwhile, acknowledged that some of the blame likely falls on the organization, especially considering that these sort of struggles have happened in the past. (Sharma points to Adam Warren as one prominent example.) “…[W]e’ve had a number of guys who have come in and struggled beyond what they’ve done in the past,” Hoyer tells Sharma. “That’s something we have looked at and will continue to look at and talk about how we ’onboard’ guys, so to speak. … We’ve been, candidly, somewhat frustrated by it and we’ll keep working on it.”
More from the division…
- Patrick Mooney of The Athletic argues that the time is right for the Cubs to make a big splash on the free-agent market. Big spenders like the Yankees, Giants and Dodgers are striving to dip below the luxury tax, while several other clubs throughout the league are also operating under financial constraint. Within their division, the Pirates could be on the verge of a rebuild, as trade rumors swirl around Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison. Meanwhile, the Reds don’t yet look to be ready to push back into contention. Mooney notes that the Cubs are remaining in touch with agents for Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, though the Chicago brass doesn’t seem to have Lance Lynn as high on its list of priorities, he adds.
- There’s little precedent for Tommy Pham’s enormous breakout season at the age of 29, writes SB Nation’s Craig Edwards. Pham posted a roughly six-win season for the Cardinals (5.9 fWAR, 6.4 rWAR) last year on the strength of a .306/.411/.520 batting line through 530 plate appearances. However, he’d provided minimal value to the Cards over his first 136 games in the bigs after progressing slowly through the minor leagues. Edwards looks for historical context for Pham’s breakout, noting that there’ve been 48 outfielders with a WAR between five and seven in their age-29 season over the past 70 years. Of that group, only three — Jose Bautista, Ryan Ludwick and former Tigers outfielder Charlie Maxwell — broke out with as limited a track record as Pham. It’s an interesting look at a unique breakout season that also attempts to gauge how Pham will perform in 2018 and beyond.
- Pirates skipper Clint Hurdle recently sat down for a Q&A with Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com. Hurdle discusses his journey from a 10-year playing career to a minor league manager to a coach and skipper in the big leagues. Hurdle shares an anecdote from his time with the Rockies in which he thought he was on the verge of being dismissed as hitting coach when he was in reality being promoted to skipper. The two also discuss Pittsburgh’s return to postseason contention earlier this decade after a prolonged drought, as well as the recent rough patch over the past couple of seasons. It’s well worth a read — particularly for fans of the Pirates and Rockies.
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still so much left out there to signComment -
After joining the Diamondbacks last season, J.D. Martinez had more homers (29) than singles (27). He posted a .741 slugging percent for Arizona.Comment -
Have the Padres pick up Jay Bruce.Comment -
JD was special this year.Comment -
Charlie Blackmon put up some gaudy numbers in 2017, hitting .331 to go along with 37 home runs and 104 RBIs. As a result, my model projected him for a very high raise. However, the model also utilizes something called the Kimbrel Rule– which states that no player gets projected for an increase more than $1MM higher than the record raise for his service class. This limits Blackmon to a $6.1MM raise, which lands him at a $13.4MM projection for the 2018 season. Truth be told, though, the model actually spit out a $16.8MM salary estimate!
There are two different run environment factors to consider for Blackmon that could be inflating the way his number would be viewed by an arbitration panel. Blackmon plays his home games at Coors Field, a notorious home run park. FanGraphs gives Rockies’ players a 116 park factor, suggesting Blackmon’s 37 home runs might be the equivalent of 32 home runs in a more neutral setting.
Further inflating Blackmon’s home run total is something that will affect a great number of cases this year—the dramatically increased level of home runs throughout the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Blackmon as similar to other players with the same number of home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs.
My model does not adjust for league or park home run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high-scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower-scoring years. Pitchers in low-scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high-scoring years.
If you knock down Blackmon’s home run total by league and park effects, he lands somewhere around the equivalent of 25 home runs in a neutral park in a prior season. But of course, that may not be what the panel considers. Most likely, they will just compare him (favorably) to the current record-holder in this service class, which is Chase Headley from 2013. Headley hit .286 with 31 homers, 115 RBIs and 17 stolen bases in the platform season for his final trip through the arbitration process.
Blackmon outperformed Headley in both homers and average, and he also stole 14 bags, further helping his case. It seems likely to Blackmon will be seen as favorable to Headley — especially considering the fact that Headley’s case is already five years old — so I think earning a raise north of $6MM seems likely.
If we’re looking for other recent players with a lot of home runs who reached arbitration, Todd Frazier’s name emerges. He hit 40 home runs in his platform season, but at .225, his average was more than a hundred points below Blackmon’s. Frazier got a $3.75MM raise, which Blackmon should easily crush.
Eric Hosmer is another potential comparable, but he’s also clearly a player with an inferior case to that of Blackmon. In 2016, Hosmer’s platform before his final trip through arbitration, he hit .266 with 25 homers and 104 RBIs. Blackmon has him handled in every category, so Hosmer’s $4MM raise is another example of a potential floor for Blackmon’s raise.
I think it’s clear that Blackmon is going to set a new record. The “Kimbrel Rule” has worked very well since its inception, and I think it will apply well here. Look for Blackmon to land somewhere between $13-14MM, with some chance of going slightly above that if and when he settles on a one-year deal for the 2018 season.Comment -
pissed that I got duped by Gerritt Cole trade news via chicago sports radio updates yesterdayComment
