College Football Week 10 Betting Review
College Football Week 10 Betting Review
Graham Harrell and Texas Tech lost a big lead before rallying Saturday night for a 39-33 win over Texas, toppling the Longhorns from No. 1 status and vaulting the Red Raiders to No. 2 in the latest BCS poll. Alabama has taken over the top spot in the country with a 9-0 Penn State team at No. 3. Texas Tech's win accented the home dog play for the week that went a very nice 12-6 Against the spread.
Everyone’s looking at the polls and going crazy. People are worried the computers aren’t getting it right. Will it all work out in the end?
The same plotline for Election Day holds true for college football. The incumbent from Texas is no longer in power; the Longhorns (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) lost 39-33 to the Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3½) to fall out of the top spot in the polls. That’s two ATS losses in a row for Texas after starting the 2008 season as one of the hottest teams against the betting odds.
The Red Raiders (9-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) weren’t the only home dogs in the Week 10 yard. This was easily the biggest play of the week at 12-6 ATS (66.7 percent), with the home-field advantage responsible for most of the value at 29-18-1 ATS (61.7 percent). The Over pulled in a very small profit on the week at 24-21 (53.3 percent).
The Georgia Bulldogs could have used some of that puppy love on Saturday. They were the designated home team in this year’s Cocktail Party matchup with the Florida Gators (-7½), a neutral-site contest in Jacksonville. But there was nothing neutral about Florida’s offense as the revenge-minded Gators trounced Georgia 49-10. The Bulldogs are out of title contention at 7-2 (3-4-1 ATS), while the Gators (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) are in very good shape at No. 4 in the BCS rankings.
This is a major point of contention with the polls. Texas Tech is one of three remaining undefeated teams from the major conferences. The Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) roll up to No. 1 after blanking Arkansas State 35-0 as 24-point home faves. The Red Raiders are No. 2, followed by the idle Penn State Nittany Lions at 9-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. It has to steam Joe Paterno’s craw to watch Texas Tech vault over his team in the polls.
Paterno’s fellow coaches agree. They have Penn State as No. 2 on their polls, ahead of the Raiders. The coaches are also down on the Longhorns, voting them in at No. 7 compared to No. 4 for the BCS. The latter rankings are the ones that determine who gets to play for the title; we could see an undefeated Lions team out of the championship picture at No. 3 on the computers.
Handicappers would be fine with that – the more underappreciated Penn State is, the more money can be made from the team’s outstanding play. Brian Fremeau’s stathead-friendly efficiency index had the Lions at No. 2 in the FBS behind Texas going into the weekend. Alabama was No. 6 and Texas Tech No. 12. While Penn State operates in the shadows of the eerily quiet Big Ten, it will be more difficult for the upwardly mobile Raiders to hold onto their betting value following their high-profile win over the Longhorns.
The best mid-major programs would love to be “ignored” the way Penn State is. But there’s a reason teams like the Tulsa Golden Hurricane are playing in mid-majors like Conference USA. Tulsa’s undefeated streak came to a halt in a 30-23 loss to the SEC’s Arkansas Razorbacks (+7), another successful Week 10 home dog. Arkansas is on a 4-0 ATS run with a pair of wins as the Bobby Petrino regime starts to take root.
Three teams are still alive in the battle for BCS bowl-buster status. The leaders are the No. 8 Utah Utes (9-0 SU, 4-3-1 ATS), who scraped by New Mexico (+8) in a 13-10 final and another home dog payday. No. 10 Boise State (8-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) avoided the trend with a 49-0 humiliation of New Mexico State (+21). The coaches agree with those BCS rankings, but AP writers have the Broncos rated ahead of the Utes. No. 17 Ball State (8-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) was idle last week and will only get a major bowl invitation if Utah and Boise State both lose.
Just as the list of undefeated SU teams dwindles, there are now only two “perfect” ATS teams in the FBS. Wyoming finally got off the schneid at 1-7 ATS with a 35-10 victory over San Diego State (+6), leaving Washington State the last of the must-fades at 0-8 ATS. At the other end of the list, Oklahoma State remained pure and wholesome at 8-0 ATS by flattening Iowa State (+30½) in a 59-17 cakewalk. Next up for the No. 9 Cowboys: Texas Tech.
Graham Harrell and Texas Tech lost a big lead before rallying Saturday night for a 39-33 win over Texas, toppling the Longhorns from No. 1 status and vaulting the Red Raiders to No. 2 in the latest BCS poll. Alabama has taken over the top spot in the country with a 9-0 Penn State team at No. 3. Texas Tech's win accented the home dog play for the week that went a very nice 12-6 Against the spread.
Everyone’s looking at the polls and going crazy. People are worried the computers aren’t getting it right. Will it all work out in the end?
The same plotline for Election Day holds true for college football. The incumbent from Texas is no longer in power; the Longhorns (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) lost 39-33 to the Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3½) to fall out of the top spot in the polls. That’s two ATS losses in a row for Texas after starting the 2008 season as one of the hottest teams against the betting odds.
The Red Raiders (9-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) weren’t the only home dogs in the Week 10 yard. This was easily the biggest play of the week at 12-6 ATS (66.7 percent), with the home-field advantage responsible for most of the value at 29-18-1 ATS (61.7 percent). The Over pulled in a very small profit on the week at 24-21 (53.3 percent).
The Georgia Bulldogs could have used some of that puppy love on Saturday. They were the designated home team in this year’s Cocktail Party matchup with the Florida Gators (-7½), a neutral-site contest in Jacksonville. But there was nothing neutral about Florida’s offense as the revenge-minded Gators trounced Georgia 49-10. The Bulldogs are out of title contention at 7-2 (3-4-1 ATS), while the Gators (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) are in very good shape at No. 4 in the BCS rankings.
This is a major point of contention with the polls. Texas Tech is one of three remaining undefeated teams from the major conferences. The Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) roll up to No. 1 after blanking Arkansas State 35-0 as 24-point home faves. The Red Raiders are No. 2, followed by the idle Penn State Nittany Lions at 9-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. It has to steam Joe Paterno’s craw to watch Texas Tech vault over his team in the polls.
Paterno’s fellow coaches agree. They have Penn State as No. 2 on their polls, ahead of the Raiders. The coaches are also down on the Longhorns, voting them in at No. 7 compared to No. 4 for the BCS. The latter rankings are the ones that determine who gets to play for the title; we could see an undefeated Lions team out of the championship picture at No. 3 on the computers.
Handicappers would be fine with that – the more underappreciated Penn State is, the more money can be made from the team’s outstanding play. Brian Fremeau’s stathead-friendly efficiency index had the Lions at No. 2 in the FBS behind Texas going into the weekend. Alabama was No. 6 and Texas Tech No. 12. While Penn State operates in the shadows of the eerily quiet Big Ten, it will be more difficult for the upwardly mobile Raiders to hold onto their betting value following their high-profile win over the Longhorns.
The best mid-major programs would love to be “ignored” the way Penn State is. But there’s a reason teams like the Tulsa Golden Hurricane are playing in mid-majors like Conference USA. Tulsa’s undefeated streak came to a halt in a 30-23 loss to the SEC’s Arkansas Razorbacks (+7), another successful Week 10 home dog. Arkansas is on a 4-0 ATS run with a pair of wins as the Bobby Petrino regime starts to take root.
Three teams are still alive in the battle for BCS bowl-buster status. The leaders are the No. 8 Utah Utes (9-0 SU, 4-3-1 ATS), who scraped by New Mexico (+8) in a 13-10 final and another home dog payday. No. 10 Boise State (8-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) avoided the trend with a 49-0 humiliation of New Mexico State (+21). The coaches agree with those BCS rankings, but AP writers have the Broncos rated ahead of the Utes. No. 17 Ball State (8-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) was idle last week and will only get a major bowl invitation if Utah and Boise State both lose.
Just as the list of undefeated SU teams dwindles, there are now only two “perfect” ATS teams in the FBS. Wyoming finally got off the schneid at 1-7 ATS with a 35-10 victory over San Diego State (+6), leaving Washington State the last of the must-fades at 0-8 ATS. At the other end of the list, Oklahoma State remained pure and wholesome at 8-0 ATS by flattening Iowa State (+30½) in a 59-17 cakewalk. Next up for the No. 9 Cowboys: Texas Tech.