Mr. Doughnut's Picking Winners Thread

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  • Mr. Doughnut
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-16-11
    • 690

    #1
    Mr. Doughnut's Picking Winners Thread
    I provided my thoughts quite a bit last year. Since I am documenting my plays this year in a spreadsheet, I figured I would also make a thread for my plays. Do what you wish with this--provide your own thoughts, criticize me, discuss, etc.

    Being from the good side of the Ohio River near the 'Ville I have grown up a fan of betting on the ponies (ergo the "Picking Winners" play on words). I also enjoy college football and basketball, but tend to take a pony approach to betting. Here I will post my college football plays (along with a smattering of NFL plays) and see where this goes.

    All bets will be to win 1 unit (unless otherwise stated). Since I didn't track my plays last year, I can't properly choose my unit amount as I do with the ponies. So for me 1 unit will be equal to 2% of bankroll (not that this matters to anyone following this). I will mostly bet ML faves and + the points with dogs. This is all about ROI and money management, the two keys that are often overlooked by the losing gambler (thus they become the "losing gambler").

    Also a shout out to any other college gamblers on here, as well as any other Hoosier fans whom are reading and/or following this thread.

    In order to keep this current with my spreadsheet, I will add in my plays from the last week...

    W % 80%
    Avg W Odds -367.5
    Avg Risk 3.14
    Avg Paid 3.74
    Total Risk 15.70
    Total Paid 18.70
    ROI 19%
    Units 3
    Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Amount Paid Status Wager Odds Odds if W Units
    133044996-1 8/30/12 6:47pm 2.55 1.00 3.55 Win 8/30/12 7:00pm College Football 133 South Carolina -255* vs Vanderbilt -255.00 -255 1
    133045143-1 8/30/12 6:48pm 1.00 1.05 0.00 Loss 8/30/12 7:00pm College Football 133 South Carolina -7 +105* vs Vanderbilt 105.00 -1
    133500831-1 9/1/12 7:02pm 5.00 1.00 6.00 Win 9/1/12 8:00pm College Football 194 Alabama -500* vs Michigan -500.00 -500 1
    133642173-1 9/2/12 2:22pm 6.00 1.00 7.00 Win 9/2/12 3:30pm College Football 212 Louisville -600* vs Kentucky -600.00 -600 1
    133809017-1 9/3/12 6:46pm 1.15 1.00 2.15 Win 9/3/12 8:00pm College Football 215 Georgia Tech +8 -115* vs Virginia Tech -115.00 -115 1

    Thus currently:

    4-1, +3 U, 19% ROI

    Bet for tonight:

    NYG ML 1.85 to win 1

    Opening NFL game so I gotta put something on it. In New York, great line, solid QB, gotta go with New York. Albeit I have Murray on many of my fantasy teams, so a TD or two would be nice.
  • Mr. Doughnut
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-16-11
    • 690

    #2
    NYG ML 1.85 to win 1 L

    4-2 +1.15

    Cinci ML 2.1 to win 1
    Comment
    • Mr. Doughnut
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-16-11
      • 690

      #3
      Cinci with the big win

      5-2 +2.15

      Today's plays:
      UCF +17
      ND -14
      East Car +21
      Iowa St +3'
      Florida pk
      IU -14
      Comment
      • Mr. Doughnut
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 09-16-11
        • 690

        #4
        Originally posted by Mr. Doughnut
        Cinci with the big win

        5-2 +2.15

        Today's plays:
        UCF +17 W +1
        ND -14 L -1.1
        East Car +21 L -1.1
        Iowa St +3' W +1
        Florida pk W +1
        IU -14 W +1
        Updated Statistics:

        W % 69%
        Avg Risk Odds -186
        Avg W Odds -236
        Avg Risk 1.94
        Avg Paid 2.25
        Total Risk 25.25
        Total Paid 29.20
        ROI 16%
        Units 3.95
        Comment
        • Mr. Doughnut
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-16-11
          • 690

          #5
          Rutgers +8 1.1 to win 1
          Comment
          • Mr. Doughnut
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 09-16-11
            • 690

            #6
            Originally posted by Mr. Doughnut
            Rutgers +8 1.1 to win 1 W +1
            Updates Stats:

            W % 77%
            Avg Risk Odds -181
            Avg W Odds -223
            Avg Risk 1.88
            Avg Paid 2.24
            Total Risk 26.35
            Total Paid 31.30
            ROI 19%
            Units 4.95

            Currently two bets for Saturday (each 1.1 to win 1)

            Indiana -2.5
            Alabama -20.5
            Comment
            • Mr. Doughnut
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-16-11
              • 690

              #7
              Wazzou -8 1.1 for 1
              Comment
              • Mr. Doughnut
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 09-16-11
                • 690

                #8
                Originally posted by Mr. Doughnut
                Wazzou -8 1.1 for 1 Wash
                Wash St was a wash, could have been another W.
                Comment
                • Mr. Doughnut
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-16-11
                  • 690

                  #9
                  Plays for Today:

                  IU -2.5
                  Alabama -20.5
                  UK -7
                  UCLA -17.5
                  Utah St +14.5
                  Tenn -3
                  UofL -3.5
                  USC -7.5
                  BYU-2.5
                  Comment
                  • Mr. Doughnut
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-16-11
                    • 690

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Mr. Doughnut
                    Plays for Today:

                    IU -2.5 L-1.1
                    Alabama -20.5 W 1
                    UK -7 l -1.05
                    UCLA -17.5 W 1
                    Utah St +14.5 W 1
                    Tenn -3 L -1.1
                    UofL -3.5 W 1
                    USC -7.5 L -1.1
                    BYU-2.5 L -1.15
                    Updated Stats:

                    W % 61%
                    Avg Risk Odds -153
                    Avg W Odds -191
                    Avg Risk 1.58
                    Avg Paid 1.73
                    Total Risk 36.25
                    Total Paid 39.70
                    ROI 10%
                    Units 3.45
                    Play tonight: Buffalo -3 -115
                    Comment
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