Do Returning Starters Matter?

[dirk93]

In handicapping, especially the preseason, everyone makes a big deal about returning starters. This is especially important for people betting over/under wins for the season.

Returning starters seems like a useful statistic for this kind of betting. But does more experience really result in better teams? Check out these two blog posts and decide for yourself:

Do Returning Starters Matter? Part I

Does Experience Matter? Part II

Let me know if you agree/disagree

Edit: Not sure if this goes here or in the Think Tank

[TPowell]

useful for power ratings but outside of that, I don't think it matters much. Offensive linemen, quarterback, MLB, and safeties need experience IMO

[thetrinity]

Powell beat me to it. They matter more at certain positions qb n oline most imo

[venture]

Yes it matters teams with 20+ returning starters have gone 123-87 ATS the past 4 years.

[rm18]

good players matter, it is correlated to returning starters but is not neccessarily a good thing.

[dirk93]

Thanks for the responses. I think that based on the article, returning starters only matter if a team has 20+. Also, it is necessary to look at who the returning starters are rather than just looking at the total number.

Also, it is interesting to note that teams don't get better with more experience. Seems counter-intuitive.

[M.W.]

The article and graphs were interesting, but it would be more valuable to compare previous year's ELO with the ELO for the first two or three or four weeks of the next season to see whether returning starters make a difference early on.

[dirk93]

That is an interesting thought MW. The only problem I see with that is strength of schedule. Many teams play cupcakes the first few weeks of the season, while others play tough non conference games. If there was a way to adjust for that, I would consider looking into it.

[possum11]

Matters especially in early season play. Auburn had least returning starters last year and remember what happened to them in week 1?