Pags' Plays 10/25

[SBR Lou]

Good luck this weekend, Pags.

[pags11]

crazyl,

thank you very much for all of your help...I greatly appreciate it...

[SoonerBS]

Pags, I've noticed you playing quite a few games this week. Any reason?

You know me, I play anywhere between 15 and 20 plays each week, but I've noticed you like to keep it between 5 and 7 usually . . . .

[pags11]

soonerbs,

just playing my regular seven Saturday games, but a couple weeknight games (small plays) stick out to me...I played about 12 weeknight games last year, but have only played two so far this year...just haven't seen much I liked, I'm sure you know what I mean...actually part of my strategy is to give myself up to seven units worth of non-Saturday games to play each year (and I usually split them up into half unit plays, although I did play SJSU +17 at home vs. Hawaii last year for a full unit)...at any rate, still staying with my money management plan...I do go down to five Saturday plays in Week 12 and then three plays on Weeks 13 and 14...lines get tighter and it's best to take profits as I'm sure you'll agree...yes, your style definitely works for you and mine has been good to me over the years...

[SoonerBS]

soonerbs,

just playing my regular seven Saturday games, but a couple weeknight games (small plays) stick out to me...I played about 12 weeknight games last year, but have only played two so far this year...just haven't seen much I liked, I'm sure you know what I mean...actually part of my strategy is to give myself up to seven units worth of non-Saturday games to play each year (and I usually split them up into half unit plays, although I did play SJSU +17 at home vs. Hawaii last year for a full unit)...at any rate, still staying with my money management plan...I do go down to five Saturday plays in Week 12 and then three plays on Weeks 13 and 14...lines get tighter and it's best to take profits as I'm sure you'll agree...yes, your style definitely works for you and mine has been good to me over the years...

I see, that makes sense.

I've see all kinds of money management strategies work, but a person has to be faithful to them. I think any betting strategy will work if you are doing your homework on your handicapping. You definitely do yours . . . .

[pags11]

thanks bro, that's for sure...I have it all written down, have tweaked my system over 24 years and like you said you have to stick with what works for you...let's hope I can break out from my less than mediocre run the past two weeks...thanks again...

[masr]

San Jose State just has to be the bet in this game Friday night. The only thing that scares me about SJSU is that they rely heavily on their defense. I'm not impressed with their offense as much. But, I'm not real impressed with Boise's offense this season either. SJSU loves these big weeknight games at home like the Hawaii game they had there last year.

Sooner,
maybe this will make you feel lil better about SJST,
following LY WAC worst 35 pt loss @ Boise.
Spartans have covered last 2 against Boise St in Spartan stadium were they're 11-1 ATS since '06, 5-0 as dogs L2Ys
also on SJst this week, Good luck this week

[pags11]

masr,

thanks very much for that information...

[masr]

Any time Pags, youve helped me out w/ so much more info...
Good Luck this week

[White_Tiger]

gl this week Pags. I really don't trust Neb this year.

WT.

[WSU_Tbone]

GL this week Pags...Glad to see that we are on the same side of a cpl games...I'm still going back and forth on WVU/Auburn...I'm thinking a no play for me...I would of had a 10000000000* game of the millenium again fading the Cougs this week, but unfortunately we have a bye...lol..but there is always next week... :P

[pags11]

masr,

GL to you as well...

white_tiger,

GL to you too...I don't really trust Baylor...

wsu,

thanks...glad we are on the same side of a couple as well...yeah, you are right about WSU for sure...they are the worst Pac 10 team I've ever seen...

[clowncar]

Best of luck as always thsi week pags.

Looks like weather is going to touch a couple of your games. Wonder if you think weather in pittsburgh would benefit Rutgers ( as it usually does with large dogs ) or if you think it hurts their pass game. Of course , weather may end up being clear but wondering if you consider the possibility of it to be a bonus or a concern.

Love most of your plays as you already know. Only Army strikes me as a concern and we have discussed that game so much already that there is no point in rehashing. I will definitely be cheering for the black knights there.

I see another solid pags saturday coming up with some cushion built in from a solid weeknight slate.

Auburn is my favorite play of the week , though the more I examine the Nebraska game , the more I love the huskers in that one.

Talk at you later , and knock them dead.

[geauxtigers]

Good luck this week pags.

[GoSooners]

Pags....I'm really liking your card...BOL my friend. You da man.

[icemantbi]

Another nice looking card Pags. Totally agree with you on Auburn tonight, especially getting the hook at 3.5.

[pags11]

clowncar,

appreciate the weather info., I see the Rutgers vs. Pitt being a grind-it-out game so hopefully the weather just aids with that...respect your concerns on the Army game, but as we discussed earlier I've got to go with my gut...heck, at least there are some other people betting Army with the line currently at 2.5...thanks for all of your help this year, I look forward to continue to work with you...yes, let's start things off right with Auburn...GL brother...

geauxtigers,

thanks very much...sorry I didn't get back to you on the PM sooner, it was hit and miss with SBR having so much down time...GL to you this week...

gosooners,

appreciate you saying so, thanks for your time yesterday...glad to know we were thinking similiarly after not having talked the first 4 or so days the card was out...that always makes me more confident...GL to you this week pal...

iceman,

something tells me it's going to be a pretty hard fought game, but I like our chances...thanks bud...GL this week...

[blackbeSSt]

pags do you ever rate your plays 1-7 as most likely % of hitting? or what would be your top 4 out of the remaining 6?

[jackpot269]

GL this week pags and as always thanks for sharing your plays, thoughts, and insight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[icemantbi]

What a shit performance from Auburn in the 2nd half

You'll get it back Pags

[The Seer]

Tough play on Auburn. Pags, you may want to take a closer look at TN. With Cody out at nose for Alabama, I think TN can move the ball in this game. He is the key to their defense this year. In a two gap scheme (such as the nose in a 3-4 defense), it is critical to have a stud there like Cody. Even though Chapman is a strong guy, he doesn't have the weight or agility that Cody has which is more important. TN is also finding a rhythm on offense. I think TN plays with a ton of emotion and makes it a field goal game either way. Most of the time you can throw out the stats and records in this game.

[bumppinee]

lets have a great weekend pags

[SportNut]

Gl Pags, will be on Mizz and Kansas with you.

[pags11]

blackbesset,

each week I flat bet, but raise and lower the units based on the week of the season...what I've found is the game I think is the best sometimes doesn't it and the game I'm least confident in sometimes comes in...so I really don't know how to go about rating them...

jackpot,

thanks very much...I'm glad you enjoy my work...GL to you as well...

seer,

yeah it was tough, I'm pretty disgusted with Auburn's second half performance...it's very clear to me that this team has quit on Tubberville...won't be playing on them the rest of the season, you can count on that...I understand your logic on the Tennessee play for sure, and you are definitely right that these two schools don't like eachother...GL this weekend...

bumpinnee,

that sounds like a plan to me bud...GL to you as well...

sportsnut,

good to hear we will be on those two together...GL this weekend...

[pags11]

got a late start to my write-up, but I should have it up within a couple of hours...

[pags11]

Rutgers +9.5


Rutgers is a team people left for dead about a month ago, but what most people haven’t noticed is that they are really starting to play some good football. They also catch Pittsburgh in a good spot, as Pitt has a game at Notre Dame on deck. There’s no doubt that Pitt is playing good football right now either. Essentially these two teams match up very well with each other and in a game where the spread is close to double digits, I look to play the dog. Rutgers has given up an average of approximately sixteen points their last three games against quality Big East opposition. This is a sign that their defense is playing much better, and I see that on film as well. Greg Schiano is a defensive coach and has put a lot of emphasis in his defensive recruiting on recruiting speed and athleticism. Earlier in the year, he had several new components to his defense and now that they have had some time to play together, they are really starting to gel. Offensively, RB Kordell Young is now fully healthy and although he’s not Ray Rice, he is an excellent young back that can take it in between the tackles and also has the speed to break a big run. The recent improvement in the Rutgers running game has taken some of the pressure of QB Mike Teel. Teel has really done a better job with his decision making, not having thrown an interception the past three games. It helps that he has two of the better receivers in the Big East in Kenny Britt (46 rec.) and Tiquan Underwood (18 rec.) to throw too. I have also been impressed with Rutgers’ TE Kevin Brock (21 rec., 1 TD), who should play a key role in this game. Rutgers will have to look to contain RB LeSean McCoy who is one of the better running backs in the country. His back-up, LaRod Stephens-Howling, is a threat as well. Fortunately, the strength of Rutgers’ defense is with their run defense. Rutgers will look to force Pitt QB Bill Stull to beat them through the air. Pitt has a couple of pretty talented wideouts, in Derek Kinder and Oderick Turner, but their numbers aren’t great due to the struggles of Stull. I see the special teams being a wash, and the weather report is calling for rain. This tells me we could have a classic, low-scoring, Big East battle that isn’t decided until late in the game. I’ll take Rutgers and the points in this one.


N.C. State +11.5

I hear ESPN's Reese Davis talk all of the time about “good Maryland” and “bad Maryland” when watching him on TV. What I mean by that is that some weeks Maryland comes out and surprises, beating teams like Cal and Wake Forest. Some weeks, though, they get drilled by teams like Virginia and Middle Tennessee State. I’m banking that we see “bad Maryland” this week. The thing about the ACC is that I don’t think there's a whole lot of separation between the top and bottom teams in this conference, with the exception of Georgia Tech. This means that games betweens teams in the ACC will have a tendency to be closer. When I have a well coached team like N.C. State getting double digits against a team like Maryland in a prime letdown spot I have to look into the game further. I have been watching this N.C. State team and it seems that when QB Russell Wilson is under center that they play a whole lot better than when he's not. In the three full games he’s played this year, they beat a quality ECU team, barely lost to a good B.C. team and kept it competitive with a very talented FSU team. Wilson is a natural leader, as demonstrated by the fact that he’s the shortstop on NCSU’s baseball team, a team that played in the Super Regionals earlier this year. For being a young player he is an excellent decision maker, as shown by his 6:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He is also extremely mobile which is important to note because Maryland may have some success applying pressure. If that is the case, Wilson has the ability to make plays outside of the pocket and pick up first downs with his legs. As most of you know I put a great deal of emphasis into quarterback play and coaching. While I respect Ralph Friedgen greatly, I think that Tom O’Brien is also an excellent coach. RB Andre Brown is now fully healthy and has shown the ability to run well against quality defenses. He’ll need to do that this week to take some of the pressure off Wilson. In watching tape, I’ve noticed that NCSU has some talented young pass catchers who have started to play much better as the season has gone on, headlined by WR Owen Spencer and TE George Bryan. NCSU will have to force Maryland QB Chris Turner to check down to his backs and tight ends, limiting big plays by playmaker Darrius Heyward-Bey and possession guy Danny Oquendo. TE Dan Gronkowski is a good player, but doesn’t possess the big play ability of his younger brother Rob, who is Arizona’s tight end. It appears to me that Friedgen isn’t interested in giving the ball much to RB Josh Portis and has featured his two younger backs, Da’Rel Scott and Daven Meggett. Scott has had some fumbling issues the last two games vs. ACC opponents which could play a role in this game, and it appears to me Meggett is running the best of the three backs. Both teams are about even in special teams and as I’ve said before the coaching match is about even. I’ll take N.C. State and the points in what could shape up to be a very interesting match up.


Missouri -21

So Missouri loses two games to very quality opposition and now most people have written them off for the season? I'm not. I was able to watch Gary Pinkel’s press conference this past week and after doing so, I’m confident we will see a great effort from Missouri right out of the gate in this game. This is a very bad time for a struggling Colorado team, to play a team as talented as Missouri who is looking to let off some steam. Some interesting information I picked up from a Missouri alumnus earlier this week, was that last year in Missouri’s demolition of Colorado the Colorado P.A. guy had the nerve to replay video from the infamous “fifth down” game and also other previous footage of Colorado beating Missouri. It caused some of the Missouri players to ask Pinkel if they could go back into the game to run up the score. He told them “no” and I expect Chase Daniel and crew to have a long memory in regards to what happened last year. I was pleased to see that Missouri came out and fought in the second half of last week’s game vs. Texas. I feel that they just ran into a red hot Texas team off a hangover from their loss at home vs. a now top ten Oklahoma State team. Missouri is now back home, where they tend to play much better and Pinkel will have them ready to play minute one of this game. Chase Daniel may not be in the Heisman running at this point, but he is still the leader of a team that can win the Big 12 North, go to the Big 12 Championship game, and ultimately play in a BCS bowl game. Let’s not forget either that players like Chase Daniel, TE Chase Coffman, WR/KR Jeremy Maclin and RB Derrick Washington, have hopes of playing at the next level. Every game is a chance for them to further impress NFL scouts. Missouri catches Colorado in a good spot, as Colorado has failed to score 20 points in any of their last five games. Much of has been made regarding Missouri’s weakness on defense, but be very clear that it’s the Missouri secondary that’s the problem. Missouri’s front seven is actually very talented. I’m not sure that the Colorado offense, especially with the uncertainty they have with the QB position and the lack of playmaking receivers, will be able to exploit that weakness. Missouri will simply outscore Colorado, and I don’t believe there’s any love lost between Pinkel and Dan Hawkins. I’m laying the points with Missouri here.


Tulane -2.5

I remember reading an article after the Tulane vs. Alabama team that talked about after the game Nick Saban, who had the team stay over for dinner at the team’s facility, came to talk to the Tulane team about how impressed he was with their team. Saban touched on the physicality of the Tulane team, especially with their line play and running game. I noticed after the first two games of the year, that Tulane’s spreads started to get a bit inflated and didn’t have much interest in playing on them. However, due to their recent struggles, I do feel this week’s line presents some value. Tulane has the top defense in conference USA, and as with most teams, they tend to play much better at home. While I have a ton of respect for Rice QB Chase Clement, WR Jarett Dillard and WR James Casey you must remember that they are only three of the twenty-two Rice starters. Anytime I can play on a physical team like Tulane against an offense who is one dimensional, it sparks my interest. Rice has major trouble running the football, especially on the road. This means that Clement will be throwing the ball a lot on Saturday and when the defense knows this, they usually pin their ears back and rush the passer. I’m not going to say that Rice isn't going to get some points in this game, but they are going to have to work for everything they get. If they turn the ball over, especially in their territory, Tulane will make them pay. Tulane has one of the best running backs in the country that you’ve never heard of, in Andre Anderson (852 yds., 5.0 ypc., 7 TD). Anderson also has two teammates who average over six yards per carry in Nathan Austin and Albert Williams, which is again a sign of excellent play by the Tulane offensive line. Tulane QB Kevin Moore is a physical specimen (6’5”, 213 lbs.) and continues to improve upon his decision making. Tulane’s running game should give him a good deal of third and manageable situations. If Moore can convert some of these and keep the chains moving, he can help Tulane keep the Rice offense off the field. Ultimately, this will wear the Rice defense down which will help Tulane in the second half. I’ll lay less than a field goal with Tulane in this one.


Kansas -1.5


Does this line puzzle you a bit? Remember that at this point of the season the odds makers are on their game, just like we are as handicappers. There is a reason that Kansas is favored in this game. Yes, I realize they have two losses, but a close loss at South Florida and a loss at Oklahoma where they played OU very tough isn’t anything to be embarrassed about. In fact, had Texas Tech played either of those two opponents on the road, I’m not so sure they wouldn’t have two losses either. Texas Tech has benefited from a very soft schedule so far this year, with their toughest road game to date being either at KSU or at Nevada. Kansas plays supremely better in Lawrence, especially in the mornings, than they do on the road. Their underrated home field advantage could play a key role in this game due to Texas’s Tech offense being so contingent upon reads at the line of scrimmage and line checks. Texas Tech has the 104th worst pass defense in the nation and I fully expect Kansas Head Coach Mark Mangino and QB Todd Reising to take advantage of that come Saturday. I can honestly tell you that I have as much respect for Reising’s game as I do for any quarterback in the entire country. He’s not the biggest QB in the country, he’s not the fastest, he doesn’t have the strongest arm, but the guy plays as hard as anyone in college football and possesses leadership qualities that can’t be measured. His mobility should also present a problem for the Texas Tech defense, whose strength is in their defensive line. RB Jake Sharp has really started to run well the past three weeks and if he can do so again on Saturday that will help open up the Kansas passing game. While Texas Tech may have the best WR on the field come Saturday in Michael Crabtree, I believe it will be Kansas’s depth in their receiving corp. that will help Kansas outscore Texas Tech. Kerry Meier (57 rec.) moves the chains, Dezmon Briscoe (8 TD) and Johnathon Wilson (15.5 ypr.) are the big play guys. Dexton Fields now being healthy will make life very difficult for a Texas Tech nickel or dime back. Kansas will look to contain the Texas Tech running game, which is improved this year. This is due to the improved play of the Texas Tech offensive line, who’s only allowed one sack on QB Graham Harrell the entire season. Kansas doesn’t have to sack Harrell to make an impact, but if they can put enough pressure on Harrell to force some throws, they can create some turnovers. Twelve of Harrell’s twenty-three TD’s have been thrown to Crabtree. Crabtree could have three TD's in this game and Kansas can still cover. I’ll take Kansas laying less than a FG to outlast Texas Tech in a shoot-out.

Army -1.5

If you can believe this, Army actually had two players highlighted on collegefootballnews.com this week. Yes, this is Army that we are talking about. I first noiticed the improvement with their play four weeks ago at Texas A&M and was very impressed with how hard they played and how disciplined they were. This is something I’ve come to expect from Air Force and Navy, but I hadn’t seen this with Army in many years. Defending the triple option can be difficult task for teams when they only have a week to prepare and although Louisiana Tech possesses a good run defense, I see them having similar issues this weekend. Teams like Louisiana Tech who play early season “money” games, combined with a treacherous WAC schedule, usually pay the price for the travel the second half of the season. This is a team that’s already played at Kansas, at Boise St., at Hawaii, games where they have scored a total of seventeen points combined. Ruston, Louisiana is a tough place for opposing teams to get to, as evident of their strong home ATS record, but conversely it also hurts La. Tech’s performance on the road. La. Tech made a QB change two weeks ago to go with the more mobile, athletic Ross Jenkins. That being said, Jenkins has thrown a total of thirty-seven passes in his career and twenty of those were last week vs. Idaho, who should be embarrassed to call themselves a Division One football program. Jenkins will be facing an extremely underrated Army defense, a defense that’s given up an average of eighteen points the last four games. Army’s strength on defense is against the run. Army will look to contain La. Tech RB’s Daniel Porter and Patrick Jackson. If they can do so it will be up to Jenkins to beat them through the air. As I’ve said before, I feel that WR Phil Livas is a playmaker, but La. Tech has struggled to get him the ball this year, as evident by only having caught twenty-two balls so far this season. Army is led by RB Collin Mooney (817 yds., 6.3 ypc., 6 TD) who has had really turned it up the past four weeks. Since taking over the starting job, Army QB Chip Bowen has continued to improve each game this season and is making excellent decisions running the triple option. He can also step back and deliver the football to receivers who are usually facing man coverage, as most teams stack the box vs. the triple option. This is a long trip for La. Tech, who has racked up as many frequent flyer miles as any team in the country at this point. Look for Army to wear them down in the second half. I’ll lay the small amount of points with Army here.


Nebraska -11

I’m very impressed with what Nebraska head coach has done with the Nebraska program. Granted it took him a month or so, but I feel that he’s kept the similar offensive principles that allowed Nebraska’s offense to have success last year and so far this year, but has started to implement the same defensive principles he learned while coaching great defensive squads at Oklahoma and LSU. I also feel that Baylor is a team that although they played well at the beginning of the year, that they are starting to get worn down as the season has continued. Much has been made about all of the talented quarterbacks in the Big Twelve, but I rarely hear Nebraska QB Joe Ganz’s (70.1% comp., 12 TD/ 6 INT) name get brought up in conversation. I’m extremely impressed with his footwork, his underrated arm strength, and most importantly with his quality decision making. Ganz is a coaches’ son, a guy who has learned not to try and do too much, to take what the defense is giving him. A particular play I remember earlier this year was at the end of the Missouri game when he wouldn’t say die and throw a difficult TD pass (while taking a big hit at the same time) on the last play of a game. I believe it’s that type of attitude that’s carried over to the rest of the Nebraska team in their last two games. They are moving the football and are starting to figure things out on defense. Anytime I lay points with a team, particularly double digits, I’ve always talked about a team needing a stable of running backs. Nebraska has exactly that in RB’s Marlon Lucky (4.3 ypc., 6 TD), Roy Helu (6.0 ypc., 2 TD) and Quentin Castille (3.9 ypc., 3 TD). This is also a sign of good offensive line play, the same line play that gives Ganz time to throw. Ganz has seven pass catchers with over ten receptions, and three with over twenty catches, headlined by Nate Swift (33 rec., 14.7 ypr., 4 TD) and Todd Peterson (34 rec., 11.7 ypc., 2 TD). Much like with the Missouri game, I look for Nebraska to simply outscore Baylor who has been struggling to score points lately. Much has been made about Baylor QB Robert Griffin, who is definitely talented, but he has struggled recently because teams have started to center their defensive game plan on him. Looking at Baylor’s schedule, they have three home wins against sketchy competition and going to Nebraska will be equally hostile, if not more so, than wast their trip to Stillwater last week. I’ll lay the points with Nebraska in this one.

[VegasDave]

Great write ups as always pags. Good luck this week!

[blunt5619]

Pags, do you still give missouri a play at -24.5 and nebraska at -13??

[pags11]

usckingsfan,

I appreciate it...GL to you as well...

blunt,

I don't like those plays quite as much at those numbers...GL with what you decide...

[Bouga]

Pags any thought on the game tonight.

[cashflow50]

pags...I believe kansas will win this one straight up. I trust Reesing to keep his team close till the end. Score for score. Also this is the best D that Tech will face this year. Home team will get this! I also love the rest of your plays especially Rutgers and Kansas. Gl bro

[AFVols11]

Pags,
I am new to this board, but nice write-ups, as I am on most of these same sides that you are. Another thing to look at in the Army game is thebad weather. Looks like it will be raining throughout the whole game, with winds sustained at 15-18 mph. I believe this will help Army, also, in the last 4 weeks, La. Tech has travelled to Hawaii, Boise, Idaho, and now New York, that team has got to be getting worn down..best of luck, I like these plays..

[icemantbi]

Great writeups. Going to be a nice weekend. Breeders Cup and College Football!

I'm on San Jose St. with you tonight too. Let's cash that ticket

[DrLuck]

like the card pags... it's time for a BIG weekend...GL

[icemantbi]

Another tough loss tonight. We'll do better tomorrow