Trey333's Picks of the Week

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  • Trey333
    SBR Rookie
    • 10-15-08
    • 44

    #1
    Trey333's Picks of the Week
    First time doing this, so we'll see where this goes...

    Vandy +14.5 at UGA
    Vandy has been a thorn in UGAs side as of late, losing by only 3 in a UGA escape last year and beating UGA at home in 2006. UGA lost yet another OLineman to injury in Vince Vance. Having a hodgepodge OLine vs a DLine that stunts as much as Vandys is never good. Adams finally gets the start at QB and the Vandy offense is much better with him. Vandy is a scrappy team that will not lose games big. Finally, as a human factor, UGA has the game with LSU next week and there could be a bit of a look ahead factor.

    Alabama -7 at Half vs. Ole Miss
    While there has been much debate on the final line for this game, one thing is for sure: Bama storms out of the gates. outscoring opponents 88-0 1st quarter score says it all. Alabama has not led by less than 10 at half in their last 7 games. Finally, Saban and his staff have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. They will be prepped and ready to go.

    Michigan +25 @ Penn State
    This is a redemption game for Michigan. They are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Toledo and it could be possible that they were looking ahead to this matchup. Since the series started in 1993, the away team is 7-6, and regardless of how good or how bad each team was going in, only 2 of the 3 games were not within 21. As another human element, PSU has the big game with Ohio State looming next week that they could be looking ahead to.

    South Carolina +3.5 vs LSU
    This is definitely a case of "name game" betting. You take the names of "LSU" and "USCe" of this and it looks a lot different. What has LSU done this year to merit this spread being so close? They have the most overrated defense in the country, getting 55 hung on them by Florida and allowing the anemic offenses of MissSt (the most points MSU scored in a game all year vs FBS team) and Auburn (gave up 1 less pt than Arkansas) to have their best games of the year. What isn't overrated is SoCar's Defense, which is #1 in the SEC and 4th in the country right now. They gave up only 14 pts to UGA when their offense was still healthy, and UGA's offense then is much, much better than LSU's. USCe gets their best offensive weapon back in WR McKinnly. Garcia, while young, is the best QB SoCar has and showed that leading a 10 pt comeback on the road against a good Kentucky Defense. If this was on the road, I would feel different, but home games shouldn't impact young players. LSU also has the big game against UGA looming next week.

    Duke +4 vs. Miami
    Another "name game" play. The line opened up between 6-7 depending on where you play, and aound 65% of the plays went for Miami. Despite that, the line has moved 2-3 pts lower, which doesn't make sense, unless the linesmakers know something we don't. This is much like the line movement of the BYU game, and we saw what happened there.
  • Trey333
    SBR Rookie
    • 10-15-08
    • 44

    #2
    edit: Mich PSU game - only 2 of the 13 games have been decided by more than 21 pts
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