I am new to this forum but not new to forums in general or sport's wagering. I have done this off and on for many years. Unlike alot of guys that come in spouting off about how good they are or what a roll they are on I'm different. I have won some and lost more over the years. Up unitl recently I was a GAMBLER pure and simple. I only looked for value in favorites. My thinking was they are favored because they should be and so i would wager on them almost exclussively. I would lose almost exclussively as well.
This year I finally started looking at different aspects and tried very hard to be more objective. As anyone who has done this will know that one of the worse begining formulas when handicapping a game is to start out with a one sided opinion. Do that and you tend to find stats and trends that support your views and aren't objective enough to see the potential the other way. Case in point MNF lastnight. Better team, better coaching staff, on a roll. Not once did I stop to look at the % of wagers on the Giants yet the line droping towards the Browns. I had been following this trend all year and it does pay off but I entered that game with my mind not focused and already made up that the Giants couldn't possibly allow anything bad to happen after what they witnessed in Washigton the day before.
Enough with the intro stuff and down to the selections. these games are capped and I feel confident in them now. They are posted and will count but I from time to time if there is significant line movement against me I will make a different wager but the post stands. This only applies to posting games early in the week not same day selections.
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan -2.5 Generally I stick with teams that I have actually watched play. I do this because just looking at stats and trends while good information really don't tell you what you want to know about those teams. These two however is strictly based on stats because I haven't seen one down of action from either. I have played both teams previously this season and won with them. Both teams have three common opponents this year. Western beat Temple and buffalo on the road while Central won botht those games at home. Western beat Ohio by 21 at home while Central won that game by 3 at home. Central has played a slightly better caliber of teams out of conference while Western really only has one larger school game played at Texas Tech. Western holds a decided advantage in the statistical areas but have lost the previous two match-ups with Central. After considering everything involved and doing my research I had Western being a 3-5 point favorite, so either I am seeing something all wrong or the 2.5 is a real value.
Vanderbilt @ Georgia -14 This line opened at 15 and I said it would most likely head south. I have played vanderbilt several times this year with very good results. I layed off of them last weekend because I thought that Mississippi State was a bad match-up for them. Georgia isn't as bad of a match-up though. Vanderbilt gets more inflatted lines than anyone other SEC team and sometimes for good reason. This is a decent ball team though and they have shown that this season. Yes they have had a couple of fortunate bounces like the potential go ahead touchdown that became a fumble in the Ole' Miss game but that was also a very good defenssive play on the strip. Infact their defense has been money all season in turnovers. Georgia has explossive potential. While they were slightly overrated earlier in the season they are still a quality team with outstanding scoring potential. It's a tough spot for Georgia though because on deck in back to back weeks they have LSU and Florida. I like the points here and I like them all the way down to 13.
Ole Miss @ Alabama -13.5 I expect this line to move up later in the week. I stated this in another thread but will do it again in mine. The BCS rankings will be out soon and even though margins of victory aren't suposed to count anymore they still play a role in the minds of those involved. Alabama needs to start winning convincingly. Sabin has been playing it down all season because he has too. He has a young team that could easily get full of themselves and that is what gets you beat when you least expect it. With really only the Georgia game to hang their hats on ( although the domination displayed in the Clemson game was a hint at how good they are ) they will need to win more impressively now. Ole' Miss is a good enough team and they did beat Florida on the road but as good as it was for their program it really wasn't all that impressive because Florida played a flat game, a poorly coached game and a poorly exicuted game. ( and I bleed ORANGE and BLUE ) Alabama won't get caught offguard here and they won't be flat. Expect the Tide to put a serious beat down on Ole' Miss this weekend. Like this line up to 17 without fear.
Western Michigan +2.5*
Vanderbilt +14*
Alabama -13.5**
( * = $50 )
This year I finally started looking at different aspects and tried very hard to be more objective. As anyone who has done this will know that one of the worse begining formulas when handicapping a game is to start out with a one sided opinion. Do that and you tend to find stats and trends that support your views and aren't objective enough to see the potential the other way. Case in point MNF lastnight. Better team, better coaching staff, on a roll. Not once did I stop to look at the % of wagers on the Giants yet the line droping towards the Browns. I had been following this trend all year and it does pay off but I entered that game with my mind not focused and already made up that the Giants couldn't possibly allow anything bad to happen after what they witnessed in Washigton the day before.
Enough with the intro stuff and down to the selections. these games are capped and I feel confident in them now. They are posted and will count but I from time to time if there is significant line movement against me I will make a different wager but the post stands. This only applies to posting games early in the week not same day selections.
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan -2.5 Generally I stick with teams that I have actually watched play. I do this because just looking at stats and trends while good information really don't tell you what you want to know about those teams. These two however is strictly based on stats because I haven't seen one down of action from either. I have played both teams previously this season and won with them. Both teams have three common opponents this year. Western beat Temple and buffalo on the road while Central won botht those games at home. Western beat Ohio by 21 at home while Central won that game by 3 at home. Central has played a slightly better caliber of teams out of conference while Western really only has one larger school game played at Texas Tech. Western holds a decided advantage in the statistical areas but have lost the previous two match-ups with Central. After considering everything involved and doing my research I had Western being a 3-5 point favorite, so either I am seeing something all wrong or the 2.5 is a real value.
Vanderbilt @ Georgia -14 This line opened at 15 and I said it would most likely head south. I have played vanderbilt several times this year with very good results. I layed off of them last weekend because I thought that Mississippi State was a bad match-up for them. Georgia isn't as bad of a match-up though. Vanderbilt gets more inflatted lines than anyone other SEC team and sometimes for good reason. This is a decent ball team though and they have shown that this season. Yes they have had a couple of fortunate bounces like the potential go ahead touchdown that became a fumble in the Ole' Miss game but that was also a very good defenssive play on the strip. Infact their defense has been money all season in turnovers. Georgia has explossive potential. While they were slightly overrated earlier in the season they are still a quality team with outstanding scoring potential. It's a tough spot for Georgia though because on deck in back to back weeks they have LSU and Florida. I like the points here and I like them all the way down to 13.
Ole Miss @ Alabama -13.5 I expect this line to move up later in the week. I stated this in another thread but will do it again in mine. The BCS rankings will be out soon and even though margins of victory aren't suposed to count anymore they still play a role in the minds of those involved. Alabama needs to start winning convincingly. Sabin has been playing it down all season because he has too. He has a young team that could easily get full of themselves and that is what gets you beat when you least expect it. With really only the Georgia game to hang their hats on ( although the domination displayed in the Clemson game was a hint at how good they are ) they will need to win more impressively now. Ole' Miss is a good enough team and they did beat Florida on the road but as good as it was for their program it really wasn't all that impressive because Florida played a flat game, a poorly coached game and a poorly exicuted game. ( and I bleed ORANGE and BLUE ) Alabama won't get caught offguard here and they won't be flat. Expect the Tide to put a serious beat down on Ole' Miss this weekend. Like this line up to 17 without fear.
Western Michigan +2.5*
Vanderbilt +14*
Alabama -13.5**
( * = $50 )