College Football 10-18-08

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  • wal66
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-14-08
    • 5305

    #1
    College Football 10-18-08
    I am new to this forum but not new to forums in general or sport's wagering. I have done this off and on for many years. Unlike alot of guys that come in spouting off about how good they are or what a roll they are on I'm different. I have won some and lost more over the years. Up unitl recently I was a GAMBLER pure and simple. I only looked for value in favorites. My thinking was they are favored because they should be and so i would wager on them almost exclussively. I would lose almost exclussively as well.

    This year I finally started looking at different aspects and tried very hard to be more objective. As anyone who has done this will know that one of the worse begining formulas when handicapping a game is to start out with a one sided opinion. Do that and you tend to find stats and trends that support your views and aren't objective enough to see the potential the other way. Case in point MNF lastnight. Better team, better coaching staff, on a roll. Not once did I stop to look at the % of wagers on the Giants yet the line droping towards the Browns. I had been following this trend all year and it does pay off but I entered that game with my mind not focused and already made up that the Giants couldn't possibly allow anything bad to happen after what they witnessed in Washigton the day before.

    Enough with the intro stuff and down to the selections. these games are capped and I feel confident in them now. They are posted and will count but I from time to time if there is significant line movement against me I will make a different wager but the post stands. This only applies to posting games early in the week not same day selections.

    Western Michigan @ Central Michigan -2.5 Generally I stick with teams that I have actually watched play. I do this because just looking at stats and trends while good information really don't tell you what you want to know about those teams. These two however is strictly based on stats because I haven't seen one down of action from either. I have played both teams previously this season and won with them. Both teams have three common opponents this year. Western beat Temple and buffalo on the road while Central won botht those games at home. Western beat Ohio by 21 at home while Central won that game by 3 at home. Central has played a slightly better caliber of teams out of conference while Western really only has one larger school game played at Texas Tech. Western holds a decided advantage in the statistical areas but have lost the previous two match-ups with Central. After considering everything involved and doing my research I had Western being a 3-5 point favorite, so either I am seeing something all wrong or the 2.5 is a real value.
    Vanderbilt @ Georgia -14 This line opened at 15 and I said it would most likely head south. I have played vanderbilt several times this year with very good results. I layed off of them last weekend because I thought that Mississippi State was a bad match-up for them. Georgia isn't as bad of a match-up though. Vanderbilt gets more inflatted lines than anyone other SEC team and sometimes for good reason. This is a decent ball team though and they have shown that this season. Yes they have had a couple of fortunate bounces like the potential go ahead touchdown that became a fumble in the Ole' Miss game but that was also a very good defenssive play on the strip. Infact their defense has been money all season in turnovers. Georgia has explossive potential. While they were slightly overrated earlier in the season they are still a quality team with outstanding scoring potential. It's a tough spot for Georgia though because on deck in back to back weeks they have LSU and Florida. I like the points here and I like them all the way down to 13.
    Ole Miss @ Alabama -13.5 I expect this line to move up later in the week. I stated this in another thread but will do it again in mine. The BCS rankings will be out soon and even though margins of victory aren't suposed to count anymore they still play a role in the minds of those involved. Alabama needs to start winning convincingly. Sabin has been playing it down all season because he has too. He has a young team that could easily get full of themselves and that is what gets you beat when you least expect it. With really only the Georgia game to hang their hats on ( although the domination displayed in the Clemson game was a hint at how good they are ) they will need to win more impressively now. Ole' Miss is a good enough team and they did beat Florida on the road but as good as it was for their program it really wasn't all that impressive because Florida played a flat game, a poorly coached game and a poorly exicuted game. ( and I bleed ORANGE and BLUE ) Alabama won't get caught offguard here and they won't be flat. Expect the Tide to put a serious beat down on Ole' Miss this weekend. Like this line up to 17 without fear.

    Western Michigan +2.5*
    Vanderbilt +14*
    Alabama -13.5**


    ( * = $50 )
  • awhitejackson
    SBR MVP
    • 11-15-07
    • 2265

    #2
    I like the WMU play here, just waiting to see where the line goes by Sat... GL and welcome to the forum
    Comment
    • casper
      SBR Hustler
      • 07-13-08
      • 87

      #3
      I know nothing about the Michigan directional schools. However, I see that the SEC has reached the point in the season --not counting what Florida did to LSU--where they are really beating each other up. I have a hard time seeing both Alabama and Georgia winning by two touchdowns. Vandy will rebound a bit and Alabama I don't think will win in a blow-out. I like the "dogs" in both of those SEC games. But as they say, opinions are like....elbows.....everyone has them.
      Comment
      • wal66
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 10-14-08
        • 5305

        #4
        I appreciate everyones opinions even if they differ from mine.

        As far as the SEC goes your right about it being so physical and how at this time of year this is alot of points to be laying. i could be completely wrong here. I am a huge Florida fan, I live here and attend every home game. I would have never thought we could do what happened last weekend either. It just goes to show it can and does happen. Alabama is at home and they need some style points to stay ahead in the polls. Penn St only has one real opstical in front of them, that being Ohio St. ( which Penn St will win unless they beat themselves ) USC get's way more hype than they deserve at times ( not always, sometimes it is warranted they have been a good team like them or not ) and are sitting right there close. So I really feel Bama needs to win a lttle more convincingly. Obviously my feeling doesn't make it so and I might be completely wrong about this weekend and them in general for the remainder of the season.

        This is why we do these types of boards, to share information and different perspectives to better evaluate each situation.
        Comment
        • wal66
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-14-08
          • 5305

          #5
          Line Movement Play:

          Based on the drastic line movement in the BYU / TCU game.


          TCU -1.5 *
          Comment
          • Dbldown11
            SBR MVP
            • 08-17-06
            • 3605

            #6
            "As anyone who has done this will know that one of the worse begining formulas when handicapping a game is to start out with a one sided opinion. Do that and you tend to find stats and trends that support your views and aren't objective enough to see the potential the other way."


            Such a true statement......I like all your plays....The only one I am on myself however is Bama -13
            Comment
            • wal66
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 10-14-08
              • 5305

              #7
              I appreciate it Dbldown11.

              Lose enough and you start gaining perspective as to why you lost so much. At that point you either adjust or bust. I've tried to learn how to adjust.
              Comment
              • wal66
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-14-08
                • 5305

                #8
                I see so many at this forum and at several other on Ole. Miss this weekend. I was just wondering if this is a play on Ole miss or more against Alabama? There is a difference from an approach angle.

                Most point to the fact of what the Rebels accomplished at Florida. If that is your reasoning I would like to give a few details about that game just in case you didn't actually watch it.
                I live in Gainesville and attend all home games and even live there were things I missed until watching again on replay the next morning.
                Before I go into any detail though I absolutely take nothing away from Ole. Miss' win. They were a considerable underdog on the road against a high ranked opponent. So winning is winning and they 100% deserved it.
                That said though when you break that game down there were several reasons why Florida LOST the game slightly more than Ole Miss won it. For starters Florida was flat from the start. Certainly they played fairly sharp on defense in the first half but not anywhere near the intensity they are capable of. Florida on offense wasn't sharp at all. they could have had this game well out of reach in the first half but poor execution and lack luster play calling kept it within reach. The second half started out with Florida turning the ball over on consecutive drives which lead to 10 quick points for the Rebels. There was another touchdown on a pass that went the distance because Major Wright missed his assignment in coverage. Nothing new by the way Wright is a hard hitter but is more apt for weakside linebacker than an in coverage safety. The final score was a long run that was the perfect call against an all out blitz that left no-one in the middle as a last resort because Spikes crashed a different gap. At the end Florida still had a chance to pull out the victory but for some strange reason the play calling that lead to an easy score the previous drive was totally different on the final drive.
                Ole. Miss won this game. they were fired up and they totally capitolized on opportunities that Florida presented them with. This doesn't make Ole' Miss among the elite in the SEC it just proves that if you don't perform at peak levels anything can happen.
                So if your playing Ole. Miss based on the Florida game at least look a little deeper.
                On the flip side of this I see the Tulane game and the Kentucky games being pointed to as negatives for Alabama. No excuses for either of those games to be close is the general concensus. I don't know that I can argue with that. Some state the Clemson game and refer to Clemson being over rated and a bad team. This may very well be true but in watching that game it was very clear that Alabama was beyond superior in all phases of that game. The Georgia game was a significant win on the road for Bama. So take that game and ask yourself this, the way Alabama shut Georgia down in the first half was pretty dominate right? Who's offense is more volatile Geogia or Ole' Miss?

                I'm not trying to sell anyone on Alabama. I have been way wrong before and will be so again. What I am trying to do is get some logical feedback as to why Ole' Miss is the play here or atleast a reasonable explination why Alabama isn't. I might possibly have blinders on and am looking at this all wrong. If so help me see how.
                Comment
                • jackpot269
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 09-24-07
                  • 12842

                  #9
                  Welcome to SBR! great write up ! Im a Bama fan and try to lay off them when gambling I hope your right about the big win but i would be careful about laying 2 TD's. Bama tends to let up if they get ahead early and give a back door cover, but GL ILL be rooting for you!!!!!!!!!!
                  Comment
                  • wal66
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 10-14-08
                    • 5305

                    #10
                    Thanks jackpot269. I know it's alot and certainly no garuntee. As I stated I am a Gator fan and bleed ORANGE and BLUE but I am overly impressed with this Alabama team. Not great in any area but solid throughout. As I said in another thread I hate admitting it I think Saban is one of the best college coaches in the game.

                    If Florida manages to run the regular season table we should end up playing Alabama in the SEC championship and while it should be a great game not one I look forward to.
                    Comment
                    • wal66
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-14-08
                      • 5305

                      #11
                      First win and can't even take credit for it cause it was a straight line movement play. Still a win is a win.
                      Comment
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