Dbldown's Plays for Saturday

[Dbldown11]

I will have my plays and write ups posted sometime within the next few hours. Why did I make this post as an announcement you ask?

So I can't get lazy and tell myself to just do it tomorrow haha. There is written record now that I said I'll do it tonight, and I dont want to be considered a liar haha.

[Dbldown11]

Here we go boys and girls:

Illinois -12.5 vs. Minnesota:

Illinois has a sick offense. they lost two games this year. Against Missouri at a neutral site (although in the state of Missouri) and at Penn St. Neither loss was a blowout, although the Missouri game did not look pretty for the most part. Illinois was glad to get a break in competition last week when they stormed into Michigan and beat up on the Wolverines, and that continues this week as they head home for their first Big10 home matchup against an improved but still bad Minnesota team. Illinois will move the ball up and down the field against the Gophers, and Minnesota will just not be able to keep pace.

Kentucky PK vs. South Carolina:

I just dont understand this line ladies and gentleman. South Carolina has not proven anything this year. Yeah they won last week, but many people predicted that would be a let down game for Mississippi. What has South Carolina done this year that warrants a PK line on the road to a team who has lost one game all year, and that loss came against arguably the best team in the country???? I have nothing else to say about this game.

Eastern Michigan -1 @ Army:

Nothing better than a battle of two bad teams. Eastern Michigan went on the road last week and beat Bowling Green, Army went on the road last week and beat Tulane. I still have to give Eastern Michigan an edge in this one. They got beaten up pretty badly at home against NIU but you have to remember that their starting quarterback got injured very early on in that game. Before that they had put up 24 on Marland. I just see Army as a god awful team. And for some reason they are even worse at home. they have played 0-3 at home this year and 1-1 on the road, and their road loss was a close one to Texas A&M. In their 3 home games...they lost 35-7 to Temple, 28-10 to NEW HAMPSHIRE, and 22-3 to Akron. Eastern Michigan has played a fairly tough schedule so far compared to that, they are the play here.

Kansas St. -2.5 @ Texas A&M:

This is another line that is way off to me. Lets look at Texas A&M so far. They are 2-3. They beat New Mexico on the road by 6, and beat Army at home by 4.....Their losses? Arkansas St at home! by 4, Miami at home! by 18, and Oklahoma St. by 28. Now Kansas St. does not have the most impressive schedule and are only 3-2, but they dominated offensively in their wins, and lost a close one at louisville, and got beat up by one of the best teams in the country in Texas Tech. To me Kansas St. wins fairly handily. Are they a great team? NO, but is Texas A&M a very bad team? YES

Northwestern +1.5 vs. Michigan St.:

This one has simple reasoning. Northwestern is 5-0, and gone on the road to Duke and Iowa and won, and yet somehow they are getting points at home in a conference game????Michigan St. has not proven enough this year especially on the road to be giving up road chalk in a game like this

Buffalo -1 vs. Western Michigan:

This line is way too low, and once again I am riding the fact that Buffalo is undervalued because of their name. This team went on the road last week to Central Michigan and lost by 2....This weeks game is at home. This is the same team that was down 14-20 at halftime @ MISSOURI! Yeah they are 2-3, but 2-0 at home, and like I said they have a road loss at Pittsburgh (higher class), a road loss at Missouri(higher class), and a road loss by only 2 to Central Michigan (Same class). They win this game at home and it wont be nearly as close as the 1 point line. Western Michigan struggled at Idaho for god sakes for the majority of that game until they pulled away late. They also got manhandled at Nebraska, and beat Temple on the road 7-3 when Temple was without their starting quarterback. This line again WAAAAY OFF!

Northern Illinois -11 vs. Miami Ohio:

Okay last week I took NIU @ Tennessee and warned them that it was a homer play, but I called it right and it was a winning wager. This week it has nothing to do with me being a fan of NIU. It is just simply a GREAT line. NIU has a record of 2-3. They lost first game of the season to Minnesota on the road by only 4 points. Keep in mind they had a 3 point lead with under a minute to go. The very next week they went on the road to a formidable (at home)Western Michigan team and lost by a field goal. the next week dominated at home to a shit Indiana St team, then went on road and DOMINATED Eastern Michigan, and last week lost by 4 at Tennessee. This is a really good team (MAC wise) that has played a tough schedule thus far. They have 3 losses for a combined 11 points, with two of those losses on the road to BCS schools! Miami Ohio on the other hand is 1-4 with their lone with coming against Charleston Southern by a mere 11 points....Their four losses come at an average of 18.5 points. Take NIU this one is a gimme.

Western KY +15.5 vs. Ball St.:

I'm going out on a lim here but I feel pretty good about it. First of all Ball St. is a solid team, and they are now in the top 25, that hurts them here though. They may now be a little cocky, this is their first time in the top 25, and I think it deffinately hurts more than helps. Western KY is 2-4 on the season with 5 of their 6 games coming on the road. Not to mention that they have played one of the toughest schedules out there.... They have played and lost @Indiana, @Alabama, @Kentucky, and @Va. Tech. The loss last week to Va. Tech was by a mere14, and it was only a 7 point deficit like halfway through the 4th quarter. This team is better than their record shows. Combine that with they fact that they finally get to play a home game, and it's against a team that is in the top 25 in Ball St.....I deffinately like it with the 15.5 points, and...wait...... I smell something..... what is that......possibly an upset?????

Arkansas St. -13 vs. UL Monroe:

Not much to say, I'll keep this one simple. Arkansas St.=decent, UL Monroe=BAD, This line is too low, Ark. St. wins by at least 17

Florida Int. -2 vs. Midd. Tenn St.:

Of Fl. Int. 3 losses, 3 were to BCS schools and 2 were to teams in the top 25....They lost to South Florida by 8 in their only home game thus far....the past two weeks have gone on the road and wiped the floor with Toledo and North Texas. Fl. Int. Is going to win by double digits at least. Bet this one BIG

LSU +6 @ Florida:

Here it is basically...LSU has shown me they are for real this year...Florida has shown me they are not. It's that simple. Last weeks game @ Arkansas was far closer that the score indicates, and Florida just doesnt have it this year. If they win it is by a field goal at best. This line is way to high in my opinion, which actually scares me...is there something I dont see?

Boise St. -10.5 @ Southern Miss.:

Here it is fairly simple.....Southern Mississippi has ZERO defense. Boise st. will put up at least 40 points in this game. will Southern Miss put up less than 30???? I do beleive so.

Hawaii -7.5 vs. Louisiana Tech:

Yet another confusing line for me. Hawaii is always a tough team at home with the time change and yada yada yada. They usually dont play well on the road. Yet last week they go on the road and upset Fresno St. and yet somehow they are only giving up 7.5 at home to a bad Louisiana Tech team?? (dont let their home win against Mississippi St. team fool you, there were a ton of turnovers by Mississippi St. in that game that allowed easy scores, and we all know that Mississippi couldnt find the end zone if it would 1 yard away...)I've gotta go with a Hawaii team that impressed me last week, and their homefield advatage with a line this low.

San Jose St. -14 vs. Utah St.:

Kinda sick of these write ups....lets do comparative math.. Utah St. has one win it was against Idaho and they won by 25. Earlier this year San Jose St. Played a team with the name of San Diego St., another team who has one win on the year, against that same Idaho team, it was also a blowout. San Jose St. beat San Diego St. at home by 25, I'm just gonna use comparative math and say this score will be about the same, so giving 14 isnt too bad. Now I know Utah St. has played a tougher schedule than San Diego St. but they have looked awefull against all those "tougher" teams they have played so it does not really make a difference.

Air Force -10 @ San Diego St:

Air Force has two losses on the year by 7 to a very tough Utah team, and by 6 to a formidable Navy team. They demolished Wyoming on the road, and beat what I consider a damn good team in Houston on the road by 3. San Diego St on the other hand is 1-4 with their lone win coming against the worst team in Div. 1 football (Idaho, they are tied with North Texas by the way)...They were destroyed by San Jose St. and TCU, and played Notre Dame close for a half(it was Notre Dames first game of the year and it took a half to get into a groove). Air Force wins this game by at least 17

[xyzky]

Liking KY and ILL so far, cant bet this Army/E. Mich game though.

[Dbldown11]

Alright that's it a lot of plays this week, but a lot of lines that screamed my name. only 3 games with road chalk on the board but all to piss poor teams so I'm not too worried, and I've got a favorite heavy board here......I feel good about the picks like always and just hope by streak continues......

As always any thoughts or opinions are appreciated. Good Luck everyone

[Jcoz]

I like your writing ups and you've had a good run...one pick I dont understand is Ball St....surely thier run ATS will end, but you have chosen an interesting week for this to happen. Western K is probably a bottom 20 team and Ball St is not a NC contender, I fail to see the significance of thier first appearance in the top 25 against such a poor opponant.

I am on on the other side here, (only one of your picks) I just think Ball St has too much offensively for W. Kentucky, I just dont see the type of situation for them to play out of thier minds on Sat.

But I've been wrong hundreds of times, this may be one of them. GL on the rest of your picks....

What are your thoughts on the MSU game?

[Dbldown11]

Western KY a bottom 20 team????Not quite sure how you could see that, Have you seen their schedule man? They lost last week to a top 25 on the road by only 14 and were down 7 at one point in the 4th quarter. They have played on of the toughest schedules in all of CFB and have only play one home game out of 6...15.5 is just way too many points. Ball St. has not played a big time team yet. The closes they have come is a game at home against Navy, and they only one by 12. Western KY's competition has been much much much much much tougher

[Dbldown11]

My thoughts on Mississippi St? I think they have a tough defense and have the potential to pull an upset off at home. Vanderbilt is deffinately a better team but I just dont feel confident enough to bet on em. The possiblitly is there for them to turn the ball over on the road against a very solid defense, and those turnovers could allow Mississippi St. to put enough points on the board to win.

[Dbldown11]

I like your writing ups and you've had a good run...one pick I dont understand is Ball St....surely thier run ATS will end, but you have chosen an interesting week for this to happen. Western K is probably a bottom 20 team and Ball St is not a NC contender, I fail to see the significance of thier first appearance in the top 25 against such a poor opponant.

I am on on the other side here, (only one of your picks) I just think Ball St has too much offensively for W. Kentucky, I just dont see the type of situation for them to play out of thier minds on Sat.


What are your thoughts on the MSU game?

By the way did you mean that Ball St. is a national Championship contender????If so we gotta hook up so I can smoke some of the stuff you got cause I've been stressed lately and could use a good high...

Just kidding man, thanks for the insights, and good luck to you

[I.R.B]

I have to say i was also looking at the AFA game and did not feel to good but i agree on this play now...

[Jcoz]

I should have specified....Michigan St.

I think VT plays down to comp somtimes and it was a letdown game after thier huge win (for them) at Nebraska.

The comparison between what VT and MIzzou did shows the offensive difference between the two....I didn't expect VT to cover 4 TD's I thought that was a ridiculous spread for a team with thier..."firepower". Its not like western kentucky is an intimidating place, and they could hang for a half to three quarter and Ball state could still cover.

Toledo is a much better team and has a very long standing history of playing teams tough at home...it was not a large task for ball st.

I think Ball St has more of a chance to cover 4 TDs than VT did against this team.

Just my opinion though, but yah, bottom 20....bottom 25 if you prefer....I think it would be EXTREMELY difficult for you to list more than 20 or 25 teams that are clearly worse than W. Kentucky.

[tab]

dbldown11, I really like your Western Kentucky pick. I think anyone would be excited to play an unbeaten team. Western Kentucky play them tough last year especially in the first half, WK was down 14-12 at halftime before losing 35-12. They had 3 interceptions in that game also. Home field advantage gives them a slight edge as a home dog. I like Western Kentucky in the first quarter, half and the game.

Western Kentucky +3.5 1st quarter (-115)
western kentucky ML 1st quarter (+195)
Western Kentucky +8 halftime (-110)
Western Kentucky ML halftime (+250)
Western Kentucky game +15.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky game ML (+500)

I the spread at the end of 1st quarter, halftime and game. I would not bet too much on the ML picks in this game. With upsets you can hit 2 of the 3 ML picks (hit 1st quarter and halftime but lose on the game ML).

Ball State is going to lose a game soon. Hopefully for us it is against an underdog like western Kentucky. I think this is dbldown's best pick.

[Jcoz]

dbldown11, I really like your Western Kentucky pick. I think anyone would be excited to play an unbeaten team. Western Kentucky play them tough last year especially in the first half, WK was down 14-12 at halftime before losing 35-12. They had 3 interceptions in that game also. Home field advantage gives them a slight edge as a home dog. I like Western Kentucky in the first quarter, half and the game.

Western Kentucky +3.5 1st quarter (-115)
western kentucky ML 1st quarter (+195)
Western Kentucky +8 halftime (-110)
Western Kentucky ML halftime (+250)
Western Kentucky game +15.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky game ML (+500)

I the spread at the end of 1st quarter, halftime and game. I would not bet too much on the ML picks in this game. With upsets you can hit 2 of the 3 ML picks (hit 1st quarter and halftime but lose on the game ML).

See you are right about them playing tough last year, I think they even outgained Ball St for the whole game....but thats why Ball St wont take them too lightly..IMO...

1stQ and 1st Half actually might be a GREAT pick though...I do think they will play tough for a while..

[Dbldown11]

My thoughts on the Michigan St. game are simple. They should not be favored on the road against a team in Northwestern that is undefeated and proven they are for real with two formidable road wins this year. Since Mich St. is favored that means the pick has got to be Northwester.....

As far as Ball St. goes you may deffinately be right, but I usually get a feeling like this about a couple dogs each weekend ( two weeks ago it was Memphis and Houston both dogs both won straight up, and last week it was Kentucky).

Just curious, who has Ball St. played this year that makes them a top 25 team??? Northwestern is also 5-0 and has proven more than Ball St. in my opinion. I think Ball St. is currently waaaaay overrated and has yet to prove anything. so laying this many points against a team like WK is too much. They beat Toledo on the road yeah, but toledo also got beat up at home by Fl. International the week before.

And Finally I reitterate, look at Western Kentuckys schedule so far it is absolutely brutal man. How can you classify them as one of the worst 20 teams in CFB when they have played a schedule like that? Every single game they have played thus far has been against a BCS school. Granted those losses are by an average 26 points BUT they are all on the road and and with the exception of Indiana, all against teams in the top 25 that would destroy Ball St.

[Dbldown11]

-I'mRichBiatch: Glad to see that you agree with that AFA pick....I feel confident we will both cash that one

[Jcoz]

My thoughts on the Michigan St. game are simple. They should not be favored on the road against a team in Northwestern that is undefeated and proven they are for real with two formidable road wins this year. Since Mich St. is favored that means the pick has got to be Northwester.....

As far as Ball St. goes you may deffinately be right, but I usually get a feeling like this about a couple dogs each weekend ( two weeks ago it was Memphis and Houston both dogs both won straight up, and last week it was Kentucky).

Just curious, who has Ball St. played this year that makes them a top 25 team??? Northwestern is also 5-0 and has proven more than Ball St. in my opinion. I think Ball St. is currently waaaaay overrated and has yet to prove anything. so laying this many points against a team like WK is too much. They beat Toledo on the road yeah, but toledo also got beat up at home by Fl. International the week before.

And Finally I reitterate, look at Western Kentuckys schedule so far it is absolutely brutal man. How can you classify them as one of the worst 20 teams in CFB when they have played a schedule like that? Every single game they have played thus far has been against a BCS school. Granted those losses are by an average 26 points BUT they are all on the road and and with the exception of Indiana, all against teams in the top 25 that would destroy Ball St.

Well, Ball St has a common opponent with Indiana. Both of them played IN Indiana. But Ball St won by more than 3 TD's, and Western Kentucky lost by 2.5 TD's.

Lets just say we disagree on what Ball St would have done against the same comp, like Kentucky or VT.

[Jcoz]

-I'mRichBiatch: Glad to see that you agree with that AFA pick....I feel confident we will both cash that one

BTW, Nwestern has proved more this SEASON, I agree. But that takes nothing away from Ball St.

[Dbldown11]

Well, Ball St has a common opponent with Indiana. Both of them played IN Indiana. But Ball St won by more than 3 TD's, and Western Kentucky lost by 2.5 TD's.

Lets just say we disagree on what Ball St would have done against the same comp, like Kentucky or VT.

I thought you may bring up the common opponent in indiana.....But just to be fair Ball ST. is in Indiana. So it's kind of a different ball game. It's one of those little guys vs. the big guys in state matchups.....So not as similar as it looks. But like I said you may deffinately be right.....I've just got that feeling. Either way, if that's the only one we disagree on, good luck to us both on the rest

[Dbldown11]

i will be parlaying NIU, Kentucky, Buffalo, Western KY, Florida Int., Boise St. and Air Force.

7 games 100 to win 8K

[pags11]

dbldown,

glad we will be on three games together...GL bud...

[Kingctb27]

Plenty of action this weekend! Should be fun!

[Jimmydafreak]

I agree with most of your picks, but I disagree on South Carolina. Although I'd love to see Kentucky win, I don't think they will. Their offense is just awful. I was at the Bama game last Saturday, and that game really should have been a Bama shutout. I believe their offense will find it tough to score again this week against a very tough Gamecocks defense. Kentucky's defense is also the real deal, and they are at home, so they find a way to come out on top, but I would side with an improving Spurrier offense here.

BOL!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

[artie81]

Illinois, kansas St., Kentucky, Arkansas St., Air Force, and LSu are all bad plays. 5 out of those 6 games will lose..

[Dbldown11]

Illinois, kansas St., Kentucky, Arkansas St., Air Force, and LSu are all bad plays. 5 out of those 6 games will lose..

Thanks for the input Artie, but through other threads I've come to realize that you have no clue what you're talking about.....

Any reason those are bad plays? I gave my reasons as to why they are good plays. Do you have any reasons aside from ass backwards ATS "trends" from that past that are meaningless?

[AMBlai01]

Loving the Kentucky pick..which last time I checked they are even getting points now. I might hold off a little longer on that play see if I can squeeze out another half point.

I also really really like the Northern Illinois play. They have played some tough competition so far and they should roll over this team.

GL this week!

[artie81]

Dbldown ur write ups are whack, you bet on reasons like this "
Not much to say, I'll keep this one simple. Arkansas St.=decent, UL Monroe=BAD, This line is too low, Ark. St. wins by at least 17!" How much do you lose to your book on a monthly basis?

[teaserpleaser]

[Dbldown11]

Dbldown ur write ups are whack, you bet on reasons like this "
Not much to say, I'll keep this one simple. Arkansas St.=decent, UL Monroe=BAD, This line is too low, Ark. St. wins by at least 17!" How much do you lose to your book on a monthly basis?

That was the one game that I didnt feel like writing much about big deal....

Look at my posted record if you want to know how much I kill the books. 7-1 two weeks ago, 7-3-1 last week, and so far 4-1 this week. You still have not given me a single reason why the picks you listed are bad picks, and until you give me a logical reason that isnt based on statistics that mean nothing (like ur wake forest pick) I will continue to know that you are a god damn moron.....Good day Sir!

[xyzky]

Dbldown ur write ups are whack, you bet on reasons like this "
Not much to say, I'll keep this one simple. Arkansas St.=decent, UL Monroe=BAD, This line is too low, Ark. St. wins by at least 17!" How much do you lose to your book on a monthly basis?

Here Artie,

LA Monroe Warhawks
1-4 (0-1), 6th Sun Belt
Team Stats
TDs Yds PassYds RushYds
Offense 12 316.2 175.4 140.8
Defense 16 485.4 223.6 261.8

Arkansas St. Red Wolves
3-2 (1-0), 1st Sun Belt
Team Stats
TDs Yds PassYds RushYds
Offense 19 464.8 222.0 242.8
Defense 11 328.4 199.6 128.8

[Dbldown11]

HAHA thank you xyzky!

[xyzky]

Also,

How do they stop this:
Rushing
Name G Rush Yds Y/G Avg Lng TD
Lawson 5 52 447 89.4 8.6 80 2
Arnold 5 69 419 83.8 6.1 56 4
Leonard 5 55 301 60.2 5.5 32 1

That poor LA-Monroe defense will be for a long day with this 3-deep package!!

[artie81]

all the explanation I need to give you why the picks you listed are bad, are the final scores of those games on Saturday DDown.. Just like Riley Skinner is going to bend you over tonight, so will those other teams. Your whack how the f u ck you 4-1 this week when there has only been 2 football games. You including some 1st quarter lines. Your picks go under 50% this week sucka.

[Dbldown11]

all the explanation I need to give you why the picks you listed are bad, are the final scores of those games on Saturday DDown.. Just like Riley Skinner is going to bend you over tonight, so will those other teams. Your whack how the f u ck you 4-1 this week when there has only been 2 football games. You including some 1st quarter lines. Your picks go under 50% this week sucka.

I had 5 plays on the tuesday game buddy. I'm not "whack" You however have no basis for what you say to me, AND have no history of posted plays on here to show me your record. Clemson will win tonight then I fully expect you to come back in this thread and beg for forgiveness

[Dbldown11]

Oh and please please please bet me anything you want that my picks go under 50% this week.

I will put up anything that says they dont.

[Lout84]

Illinois, kansas St., Kentucky, Arkansas St., Air Force, and LSu are all bad plays. 5 out of those 6 games will lose..

I have got to disagree with you artie. There is no way that card loses 5/6. There is no use isn being negative with someone's picks. A simple, "Good Luck" would be appreciated.

[Dbldown11]

thanks for the support Lout