Line Movement Plays

**dave11486** · 09-29-08, 06:51 PM

Utah has been hit the hardest
W. Mich should get slammed
CSU should go right back the other way 3 points before kickoff

**TPowell** · 09-29-08, 08:45 PM

I think betting early line movements is the way to go. Most of the money moved early on is sharp money right?

**dave11486** · 09-29-08, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I think betting early line movements is the way to go. Most of the money moved early on is sharp money right?

It can be good to bet early before the line moves yes, but I'd say following early lines alone is 50% or less. You'd want to predict the line moves and may do some middling if you got a good read.

**TPowell** · 09-29-08, 09:13 PM

yeah I posted all those to see if anybody had any views on those games

**bostonbruins** · 09-29-08, 11:54 PM

Buying .5 pts on Middle Tenn St. -2.5 (-120) 2.5u

**bearmz** · 09-30-08, 02:38 AM

Flat @ MTSU Notes:
Sep 29, 5:22 am EDT

THIS WEEK’S GAME: FAU at Middle Tennessee Sept. 30—The Owls (1-3) will find out just how much tough road games at Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota prepared them for conference play. MTSU is no slouch. The Blue Raiders (1-3) pulled off an early-season upset against Maryland and nearly beat Kentucky on a last-second Hail Mary pass that came up a yard short of the end zone.
Despite excellent protection (just one sack allowed in three games), FAU has been unable to get its passing game going. Through four games, junior quarterback Rusty Smith ( 07 Sun Belt Player of the Year) has thrown more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four). The passing game has been hurt by several drops from receivers and tight ends.
Smith looked like his former self in a 49-34 win over Alabama-Birmingham, passing for 325 yards, three TDs and no interceptions.
"They've been playing good people, and the one team that's not so good (UAB), they hung up a big number on them," MTSU defensive coordinator Manny Diaz said. "They're still the same, and he's still the same. And really they're better at wide receiver this year than they were when we played them last year. So he has better weapons than last year."
Last season, Smith led FAU to a Sun Belt co-championship and the New Orleans Bowl, where he had five TD passes in a win over Memphis.

FAU’s pass defense has been decent, but stuffing the run is a different story. Teams are running for average of 213.2 yards per game against the Owls.
RB Charles Pierre—Pierre has been one of the few bright spots during the Owls’ rocky 1-3 start. Pierre leads the Owls with 268 yards on 41 carries with two rushing touchdowns.
• RB Charles Pierre has been held out of practice last week with turf toe. Schnellenberger is hopeful the rest will help him recover in time for the Middle Tennessee game.

What FAU is hoping is that the offensive line of the Blue Raiders will not resemble those of the Big 12 and Big Ten teams that have plowed through them, as Texas rushed for 232, Michigan State 259 and Minnesota 206 in the Owls three losses.
Alabama-Birmingham had 156 yards rushing in FAU's only win this season.
Teams are averaging 4.8 yards per rush against FAU, while MTSU (1-3) is averaging 2.0 yards per rush.
September 26, 2008
PIERRE SIDELINED: Running back Charles Pierre has turf toe and his status for Tuesday's game at Middle Tennessee is uncertain.
Coach Howard Schnellenberger termed it a "nebulous situation," and said it depended on how much pain Pierre was in and how it might affect his running ability.
Pierre, who did not practice Friday, is FAU's leading rusher, averaging 67 yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry.
The Owls should get more play from defensive end Robert St. Clair, who is returning from knee surgery and only played two snaps in Saturday's game at Minnesota after missing the first three games.
"I don't know if we can expect him to be razor sharp out there, but I think he will give us a lift," Schnellenberger said.

2008 PRESEASON SUN BELT POLL
First place votes in parenthesis
1. Florida Atlantic (6) 62
2. Troy (1) 51
3. Louisiana-Monroe (1) 46
4. Arkansas State 39
5. Middle Tennessee 32
2008 PRESEASON ALL-SBC TEAM
Offense
QB: Rusty Smith (FAU, Jr.)
WR: Cortez Gent (FAU, Jr.)
OL: Nick Paris (FAU, Sr.)
Defense
DL: Robert St. Clair (FAU, Sr.)
DL: Jervonte Jackson (FAU, Sr.)
LB: Frantz Joseph (FAU, Sr.)
DB: Tavious Polo (FAU, So.)
DB: Corey Small (FAU, Sr.)
DB: Alex Suber (MT, Sr.)
Special Teams
RS: Desmond Gee (MT, Jr.)
Arguably the most important unit on the field is also one of the most concerning
for the Blue Raiders. Middle Tennessee entered 2008 with 13 scholarship offensive linemen
but only 12 are available to compete this season and 11 are either freshmen or sophomores
while seven came into the season having never taken a snap in a collegiate game. Despite the youth, the unit has allowed just six sacks all season and all six have come in conference play.

Middle Tennessee began the 2008 season with some tough odds stacked against
them. The Blue Raiders have only 71 scholarship players which is 14 shy of the 85 allowed
by the NCAA. However, only 66 scholarship players will be available due to injuries. 45 are either freshmen or sophomores with only nine being seniors.

The Series: Florida Atlantic leads 3-2
MTNSTMeetings as SBC members
Year W/L Score Site
2007 L 27-14 A
2006 W 35-14 H
2005 W 35-14 A
2004 L 27-20 H
2003 L 20-19 H

MTSU averages only 69 rushing yards per game, ranking seventh in the Sun Belt and 114th nationally. It has an anemic 1.99 yards-per-carry average, worse than every FBS team except SMU and San Diego State (1.89 yard-average).
The Blue Raiders have eclipsed the 100-yard mark as a team in only one game this season. No individual rusher has even flirted with 100 yards in a single game.
MTSU has four freshmen and three sophomores among its top eight offensive linemen, many of who are learning on the fly. Others, like right tackle Mark Fisher, are still playing through preseason injuries.
MTSU has certainly tried to run the ball. The offense has entered each game with the objective of establishing the ground game, and its 139 team rushing attempts (ranked top-50 nationally) confirm that.
MTSU has still moved the ball with a passing attack ranks first in the Sun Belt and 21st nationally. Senior starting quarterback Joe Craddock is also an effective runner.

MTSU D-CO Diaz said his defense may have shown minor flaws in its first three performances of the season, but a superior quarterback exploited them at ArkSU.
Smith, FAU's senior quarterback, has such a résumé.
The 2007 Sun Belt Player of the Year, Smith passed for nearly 3,700 yards and 32 touchdowns last season.

Fav 3-0 ATS L3 in series.

Sure seems as though Flat's the better team on paper and MTSU's youth and inexperience on the OL doesn't bode well for a W. Flat's stats are skewed by playing a much harder sked....gotta lean to FLAT. They started 0-4 in '07 and finished 6-1 in SB.