ZBOIZ College Football Week 5 Plays!!! (22-10)

**BuddyBear** · 09-25-08, 12:15 AM

Where on earth are you getting such lines? When has USF been -10? When has Washington been -4? When has Alabama been +7.5?

**ZBOIZ** · 09-25-08, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Where on earth are you getting such lines? When has USF been -10? When has Washington been -4? When has Alabama been +7.5?

These are my local lines

**BuddyBear** · 09-25-08, 12:23 AM

You realize you are betting into some very bad lines?

**ZBOIZ** · 09-25-08, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

You realize you are betting into some very bad lines?

It does'nt matter I been doing it since week 1.

**rjt721** · 09-25-08, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

It does'nt matter I been doing it since week 1.

Huh? It absolutely matters. In fact, getting a good line is pretty much all that matters.

I happen to love Washington this weekend, but playing -4 when you can get 3.5 at + money is absurd.

**BuddyBear** · 09-25-08, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

It does'nt matter I been doing it since week 1.

yeah, I can say with a great amount of certainty that you won't be betting too much longer if you are taking the worst lines week in and week out.

For example, the current market price of USF/NCST is 8.5 if we treat Pinnacle as an efficient betting market which is a very fair assumption. At that rate, paying -110 vig a sportsbook holds a 4.55% theoretical hold for the sportsbook. If you bet -10 into this same betting market, you now have a -9.92% expected value for this wager.

In other words, place this wager of USF -10 1000 times under these same exact conditions you will have a return of approximately -9.92%

That's not a very good business model for making money is it now

**M.W.** · 09-25-08, 09:06 AM

In other words, place this wager of USF -10 1000 times under these same exact conditions you will have a return of approximately -9.92%

It doesn't work like that. This isn't craps or roulette. There are no demonstrable mathematical probablities associated with any sports bet. You can't assume the spread is set "accurately", at the median of potential outcomes.

If USF will win by more than 10 in these circumstances 10% more often than it will lose against this number, he will (on average) have a positive return on his 1000 bets.

Of course, it's still a good idea to get the best line possible.

**BuddyBear** · 09-25-08, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by M.W.

It doesn't work like that. This isn't craps or roulette. There are no demonstrable mathematical probablities associated with any sports bet. You can't assume the spread is set "accurately", at the median of potential outcomes.

If USF will win by more than 10 in these circumstances 10% more often than it will lose against this number, he will (on average) have a positive return on his 1000 bets.

Of course, it's still a good idea to get the best line possible.

I strongly disagree with the above statement. No you can't assume the spread is set accurately, but you can assume that betting markets become more effiicient the closer they get to game time and as such betting lines (at certain sportsbook we'll say) are an unbiased estimator of the true population betting line.

The guy is making a wager that has a negative expected value. The current market is -8.5 or -9 depending on who you want to believe but he is laying -10, he will lose in the long run. He may win this individual game but that's not how it works. It's never about who you think is going to win or who is going to lose, it's about betting into lines that have a positive expected value, or wagers where you have an advantage. Seeing USF -8.5, and betting USF -10 is a losing proposition. There is no way that this is a good bet on under any circumstance even if USF wins by 20 this weekend.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that this guy is a losing capper. He is taking bad numbers and that means he is placing wagers that in the long run will bankrupt him.

**MartinBlank** · 09-25-08, 12:06 PM

Good luck ZBoiz, but finding the best number only helps you.

You wouldn't buy Google at 135/share if you could buy it at 131/share, would you?

Same principle.

Best of luck though with your picks!

**ZBOIZ** · 09-25-08, 01:10 PM

Guys I understand what your saying but you all have points. My record speaks for myself when I play these lines. I play lines that I feel comfortable with and speaking of the Washington game I feel like -4 is pretty good. Actually I think the line should be at -7 if you ask me.

**masr** · 09-25-08, 01:55 PM

ive got to say when ive rode with few of your bets, they've missed the mark few times...more often than not
Good luck this week though!

**PerfecTrader** · 09-25-08, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

South Florida -10
Ohio State -18
Washington -4
LSU -24
Fresno State -7
Alabama +7.5
Michigan State -8
UAB +25
Duke -7

**SexyMit** · 09-25-08, 05:55 PM

I have a feeling Stanford wins outright. But thats just my opinion

**M.W.** · 09-25-08, 06:32 PM

The guy is making a wager that has a negative expected value.

Maybe, maybe not. You certainly can't prove it one way or the other.

Sorry, to clutter your thread with this argument, but some of these guys are being way too hard on you.

**ZBOIZ** · 09-25-08, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by M.W.

Maybe, maybe not. You certainly can't prove it one way or the other.

Sorry, to clutter your thread with this argument, but some of these guys are being way too hard on you.

I appreciate you ! But the guys that commenting does'nt have a better record or come close to the money I make off of winning.

**Beat up the book** · 09-25-08, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

These are my local lines

Maybe you could call your boy a couple of times a week,you know.Check the lines on the games you like,checkout the movement online,get a better deal.Try bitch'en too.

**Dan** · 09-25-08, 09:57 PM

Thanks for posting your picks ZBOIZ. I have a feeling you're not the type to let the nay sayers bother you. Good luck this week.

**ZBOIZ** · 09-25-08, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by Dan

Thanks for posting your picks ZBOIZ. I have a feeling you're not the type to let the nay sayers bother you. Good luck this week.

I'm really not! I actually laugh at how the guys care so much about me! I will continue to put these winners up!!

**BuddyBear** · 09-25-08, 10:59 PM

It's not a matter of being a winner or a loser, it's matter of fact that if you take the worst number on a game and do so with the frequency you've displayed here you will be a losing better. That's just a fact. It does not matter if it is you or anyone else. Sorry if I sound harsh, but if USF is -8.5 and you take -10, you will lose in the long run. Fortunately (or unforutunately) the game is only played once, but that is irrelevant. That's not how sports betting works. YOU HAVE TO FIND THE BEST NUMBER. Case closed.

**El Sol** · 09-26-08, 01:09 AM

ZBOIZ, do you only use your local book? If thats the case, then that line will always be the best line...

**ZBOIZ** · 09-26-08, 11:10 AM

Update!!!! I'm taking Michigan State off the board!!

**Beat up the book** · 09-26-08, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by El Sol

ZBOIZ, do you only use your local book? If thats the case, then that line will always be the best line...

What.

**ZBOIZ** · 09-26-08, 07:28 PM

Tommorrow should be a great day!!

**ZBOIZ** · 09-26-08, 07:29 PM

I usually bet $100 dollars a game but I have profited enough to double this weekend! I will be going $200 a game tommorrow! Good Luck Everyone!!

**ZBOIZ** · 09-27-08, 02:09 PM

1-1 so far Ohio State killed me!!

**The_Kid** · 09-27-08, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

1-1 so far Ohio State killed me!!

That was a brutal ending.

**masr** · 09-27-08, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

Update!!!! I'm taking Michigan State off the board!!

should have kept it on
GL today with the rest

**TAILNU** · 09-27-08, 03:29 PM

i did the same thing and had to double it the other way! lol

**ZBOIZ** · 09-27-08, 03:52 PM

Everything is fine guys this is apart of sports!

**ZBOIZ** · 09-27-08, 10:16 PM

4 -3 so far today! I might end up breaking even!

**dfweyer** · 09-27-08, 11:15 PM

Washington can still come back...maybe go 5-3 tonight. Your plays have been good to me...

Edit: 21-28 now....