Front Page NCAAF Picks (Week 4, Sep 17-20)

**Willie Bee** · 09-17-08, 01:31 PM

Oregon Ducks -10 break the Boise St. Broncos

Game Time: 09/20/2008 03:30 PM

By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Once again the Ducks have lost their starting quarterback. But that news is actually driving this spread down enough to make Oregon the play against the Boise St. Broncos.

As soon as the betting pundits heard that starting Oregon QB Justin Roper will miss 2-4 weeks with a partially torn MCL, the money started to flow in on the side of the visiting underdogs, the Boise State Broncos. There were wise guys and squares waiting to pounce on the books as soon as the news broke, bringing the line down, which in turn in my humble opinion now makes the Ducks the right side.

After watching the Ducks' 32-26 comeback victory over Purdue last week in OT, I could see this team had grit and determination and unlike last year's version, they will be primed to respond to a QB injury. A quick look at their overall stats tells the story of an overpowering team with credible national championship aspirations. To this point in the season, Oregon is fourth in the nation in total offense (562.33 ypg) and rushing offense (323.33 ypg), and ninth in scoring offense (47.33 ppg).

Meanwhile the Boise State Broncos, despite of a 20-7 win last week against Bowling Green, surprisingly struggled when they had the rock, registering just 89 yards in total offense in the the second half. The defense, despite allowing just one TD, still gave up a total 307 yards. With that said, I'm not totally sold on this year's version of the Broncos, especially on the road against what must be recognized as a superior program from a better conference.

What I'm betting will happen is that JUCO transfer Jeremiah Masoli and Chris Harper will both see playing time under center for the Ducks. The huge Oregon offensive line will give the pivots time to operate, and a lot of pressure will be alleviated via a heavy taste of a viable running game. As the contest progresses, look for and expect the Broncos overmatched D to fold, and for huge holes to open up which result in a boatload of scoring opportunities for the home side.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Oregon is 28-1 their last 29 SU in non-conference home games and Mike Bellotti has won 17 straight against WAC programs. Boise State has lost 12 straight road games vs BCS Schools by an average of 21 PPG, and have a recent history of starting slowly in their first road game away from the blue carpet as they failed to cover seven straight.

Projected score: Ducks-35 Broncos-20

Free Pick: Oregon -10 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-19-08, 05:55 AM

Baylor Bears and Connecticut Huskies Over 50½

Game Time: 09/19/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Matt Foust | who2beton.com

Both of these offenses have been firing to open the season with the Bears putting up 36.3 PPG and the Huskies 30.7. Play Baylor and Connecticut on the Over Friday night.

The Baylor Bears will travel to Storrs, Connecticut, this week for a Friday night, stand-alone tilt with the Connecticut Huskies. We are going to go with Over 50½ for this ESPN2 national game.

The Baylor Bears were anything but a prolific offensive team in 2007, averaging 18.2 points per game. Head Coach Art Briles no doubt made the offense a big priority in the offseason as he headed into his first season at Baylor. So far the results would indicate that to be true. The Bears have averaged 36.33 points per game thus far in 2008; the only game that they did not break 20 was their opener against Wake Forest. Baylor also had five turnovers in that game which limited their ability to put points on the board.

True freshmen quarterback Robert Griffin has added a different dimension to the offense this season and he will certainly put the Huskies defense on notice. Last week against Washington State Griffin threw for 129 yards and rushed 11 times for 217 yards and two touchdowns.

Connecticut is averaging 30.67 points per game this season and they have rushed for an average of 297.7 per game. Last week, against Virginia, the Huskies posted 45 points, ran for 382 yards, and collected 25 first downs. They have a deep and talented group of running backs and a veteran quarterback in senior Tyler Lorenzen.

Connecticut has the better defense in this contest, but Baylor will be able to move the ball against them. The Huskies defensive line is very good but Griffin’s mobility will give them some trouble and his ability to run or pass will help Baylor keep the chains moving. While Baylor won the game on the ground versus Washington State, they still averaged 8.1 yards per pass and they have great speed at receiver as well as big play capability in David Gettis.

The Huskies, on the other hand, will be able to run against Baylor’s front. Last week the Bears throttled Washington State’s rushing attack, but they will have a much more difficult time trying to stop Uconn. Look for the scoring to start early and happen often.

Free Pick: Baylor-Connecticut Over 50½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-19-08, 11:02 AM

Minnesota Golden Gophers -6½ vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

Game Time: 09/20/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

Coming off a dismal 1-11 season a year ago, Minnesota is 3-0 to open 2008. Make that 4-0 after the Golden Gophers take care of business at home vs. Florida Atlantic.

The Gophers are 3-0 after a dismal 1-11 campaign last season. Minnesota has been solid on offense, which was expected as they have averaged 36 ppg through those first three games. The Gophers should once again be able to move the chains and put up points against a very suspect Florida Atlantic defense. In last year’s meeting, Minnesota put up 470 total yards and there is no reason to think it cannot do it again.

The Owls are coming off a loss, this time a shutout at Michigan St. The 17-0 final may have looked close but it could have been a lot worse if not for the bad weather that took place in East Lansing. The Spartans put up 250 yards rushing but because of the bad weather, they were able to go only 3-15 on third down and that resulted in opportunities lost. Florida Atlantic has now scored a total of 10 points in two road games.

Minnesota went to Bowling Green earlier this season and avenged a loss from last season and they has the chance to do it again. The Golden Gophers lost some tough games last season and one of those was a three-point setback in Boca Raton, so revenge is once again in play here. Minnesota was favored by a touchdown in that game and is now favored by the same amount but this time it is at home making the no change in line value filled.

Minnesota has nine returning starters on offense, including quarterback Adam Weber who led the offense in rushing and passing last year. This was a geoup that finished 48th in total offense which was outstanding considering it was the first year the new offense was in place. In the second year, things are really coming together. The Gophers are 15th in the nation in passing efficiency offense while Florida Atlantic is 92nd in passing efficiency defense.

Overall, the Owls are 105th in total defense and 103rd in scoring defense so they could once again be in for a long one. Another key factor for the Gophers turnaround has been turnovers. Minnesota finished 114th in the country in turnover margin last season as it gave it up 1.25 times per game. This year it is a complete turnaround as they are third in the nation at +2.67.

Look for the Gophers to continue their run and get their revenge Saturday. Play Minnesota for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Minnesota -6½ (-108)

**Willie Bee** · 09-20-08, 09:12 AM

Rice Owls +29½ at Texas Longhorns

Game Time: 09/20/2008 07:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Texas was supposed to face Arkansas last week, but Ike postponed that game to next week, meaning the Longhorns could overlook Rice here. The Owls can score on anyone, so take these big points.

First of all, there is little question that Texas will win this game. However, we do feel that Rice has enough talent to stay within four touchdowns here.

After all, the Owls are averaging 39.7 points and 434.3 yards of total offense per game. They started the season 2-0 in Conference USA play, and then even though they lost 38-21 to Vanderbilt from the SEC last week, they still managed 407 yards including 299 through the air.

Rice has the quick strike ability with quarterback Chase Clement, who has 875 passing yards in three games while completing 62.5 percent of his passes, to stay in any game vs. comparable opponents. Now obviously that is not the case with Texas, but Rice could still score enough points not to get embarrassed here.

Now the Longhorns are 2-0, although there momentum may have been slowed down by Hurricane Ike, which forced their game vs. Arkansas to be postponed last week. That game has been moved to next week, which may also be a distraction for the Horns, as they will almost undoubtedly have one eye on that contest during the second half of this one.

That should at the very least leave the back door open, although it is not a given that Texas will build up a 30-point lead to begin with in a look-ahead situation. Take the abundance of points.

Free Pick: Rice +29½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-20-08, 09:13 AM

Back Army Black Knights +10 in battle vs. Akron Zips

Game Time: 09/20/2008 01:00 PM -
By: Ted Sevransky | who2beton.com

This one has been bet up a field goal since open, and that makes a case for taking one of the worst teams in the country when the Army Black Knights host the Akron Zips.

Sometimes, there are very legitimate reasons to support some of the worst teams in college football. This is one of those times.

Yes, Army is ranked #120 out of 120 teams in my latest college football power ratings. Yes, the Cadets lost to Temple 35-7 and New Hampshire 28-10 in their first two ballgames, both right here at West Point. But if Army is going to win one game this year, it’ll be this Saturday – quite simply, this is their spot.

Head coach Stan Brock flipped out following the ugly loss to New Hampshire. "I'm embarrassed. I'm ashamed – not that we lost to the University of New Hampshire, because they are a good football team, but by the way we did it.

"In the second half, when things started going bad, I think there's some guys [who] quit... I'm ashamed. I apologize to the United States Military, Corps of Cadets, anybody really who watched that game. That's not the way that these kids need to play this game."

Army has had two weeks to prep for Akron and their starting quarterback, Carson Williams, has been upgraded to 'probable,' while the Zips are caught in an ugly sandwich spot between a 17-point home loss to Ball State that opened their MAC campaign, and an in-state rivalry game against Cincinnati next week. The Zips struggled against Army last year, eking out an eight-point win at home. Their defensive front has been decimated with injuries, and frankly, I’m not expecting their best effort here to begin with.

With the betting marketplace seemingly in love with Akron, betting them up all week, this is one spot where a play on the worst team in college football makes perfect sense. Take Army.

Free Pick: Army +10 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-20-08, 09:14 AM

Logan's Heroes: Utah St. Aggies -5 vs. Idaho Vandals

Game Time: 09/20/2008 04:00 PM -
By: Larry Ness | experts.covers.com

Home at Romney Stadium in Logan, the Utah St. Aggies should have very little trouble Saturday with an Idaho Vandals team that's 1-19 the last three years SU on the road.

Robb Akey is in his second year as Idaho's head coach and he's 2-13 SU. The wins have come over two Division I-AA schools, Cal-Poly last year (20-13) and Idaho State this year (42-27).

Meanwhile, Utah State's Brent Guy is in his fifth year at Logan and after an 0-3 start to '08, he's 6-32 as the Aggies head coach. Utah State was competitive in Las Vegas against UNLV on August 30 (lost 27-17) but the Aggies were "in over their heads" the last two Saturdays, allowing 66 points at Oregon and 58 at home to Utah last week. That 58-10 loss marked Utah State's eighth straight home defeat (1-7 ATS), which represents the longest active home losing streak in CFB.

However, the visiting Vandals own a nine-game road losing streak entering this Saturday's contest, allowing an average of 47.0 PPG. Idaho QB Nathan Enderle (334 YP and three TD passes last week) and RB Deonte Jackson (1,175 YR in '07 and back-to-back 100-yard games in '08) give the Vandals more offensive 'punch' than the Aggies but I'm taking Idaho away from home, considering its current record.

Utah State won last year's game in Moscow 24-19, despite being out-gained 428 to 272 in yards. Four Idaho turnovers were the difference and while one can't "count on getting turnovers," one also can't rely on the poor-traveling Vandals in this price range, either. Take Utah State.

Free Pick: Utah St. -5 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-20-08, 09:15 AM

Virginia Tech Hokies +3½ cash at North Carolina Tar Heels

Game Time: 09/20/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Virginia Tech has gone 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS in ACC road games since joining the conference in 2004. Back the Hokies on the road today at the North Carolina Tar Heels.

When the Virginia Tech Hokies take on the Tar Heels in a key ACC clash in North Carolina Saturday afternoon, they'll do so knowing they are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS in conference road games since entering the ACC in 2004.

In addition, Frank Beamer is 16-2-1 ATS away versus undefeated opposition with the Hokies. With the Tar Heels 2-0 SU but 0-2 'In The Stats' this season, look for Virginia Tech to continue their winning ways here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Virginia Tech.

Free Pick: Va Tech +3½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-20-08, 09:17 AM

Boston College Eagles -10 vs. Central Florida Knights

Game Time: 09/20/2008 01:00 PM -
By: Dave Malinsky | experts.covers.com

Boston College has a suffocating defense that should have no trouble shutting down Central Florida. The Eagles fly high with a cover at home Saturday against the Knights.

One of our favorite settings in college football through the years comes up in this one, and yet it is one that we have never developed a catch phrase for. A “No-Sizzle” favorite? We will have to do better. What we have is a superior team that brings a defense that can absolutely dominate the opposing team’s offense, and the mind-set to do so. But because they lack sex appeal, the number is short.

The public is always enamored with big favorites that are explosive on offense, since those teams can score into the 40’s and 50’s to break games wide open. As such, the oddsmakers have to make particular adjustments for those settings. But the favorite that can completely shut down the opponent often has an even better chance of covering the spread; they are just not as likely to do it in explosive fashion. That is Boston College this week.

The Eagles' front seven on defense is among the best in the nation, and through the first two games the defense has allowed only 17 points, 24 first downs and 485 yards. Those games were against opponents that had mobile QB’s (Justin Edelman for Kent State and Josh Nesbitt for Georgia Tech), and dynamic lead RB’s (Eugene Jarvis for Kent and Jonathan Dwyer for GT). Now they face a young Central Florida offense that has neither. In fact, the Golden Knights do not have much of anything offensively.

We do not think much of Michael Greco at QB. We do not think much of his receivers. And in all of the years that we have charted college football, falling down from the 2,567 rushing yards and 29 rushing TDs of Kevin Smith to a current RB corps in which the top three on the depth chart are all freshmen, is one of the biggest single-position drop-offs we have seen. Even the OL only brought back two starters from last year. So how has this played out?

In the opener against lowly South Carolina State they managed only 318 yards, and it was 7-0 well into the 4th quarter of a 17-0 win. As for that overtime thriller vs. South Florida, go back and review. Even with the added possession in O.T. they could muster only 12 first downs and 226 yards, and the game would likely have ended 24-10, with their only touchdown coming on a punt return, if South Florida had not set up the late sequence by throwing an ill-timed interception with a little more than three minutes left.

Yes, there should be some concerns about the Boston College offense after three second-half turnovers turned their game around vs. Georgia Tech. But as we wrote in the first paragraph, the “mind-set” is right where we want it to be. The Eagles have had two weeks to build up some frustrations off of the Tech loss, and with only Rhode Island on deck there is absolutely no holding back. That means that they bring a knock-out punch to the table against an opponent that clearly has a glass jaw.

Free Pick: Boston College -10 (-110)