Virginia +3 *Write-up*

[Bullet Kays]

My Iowa State play didn't go too well yesterday and I apologize to you guys who tailed me. Today I'm going to make it up to you.

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Virginia (+3) vs Auburn (-3)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta GA

Auburn (7-5) goes into the Georgia Dome tomorrow to face Virginia (8-4). They went from playing in the National Title game last year to playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl this year, not exactly a step up. Chizik and company can't be too thrilled about playing in this bowl, but Virginia hasn't been to a bowl game in the past three seasons. The Cavaliers will be pumped up for their chance to knock off last years national champions. They have something to prove after getting buried at home by Virginia Tech in their last game. Auburn is 1-4 playing on the road or at a neutral site this year while the Cavaliers are 4-1. Auburn has averaged 24.3 points per game this year while giving up 29.3 while Virginia has scored 23.2 and given up 22.3. Auburn relies heavily on the running game and Virginia has already proven they can stop that when they handed Georgia Tech their first loss earlier this season. Auburn has rushed for 2,097 yards this year while giving up 2,337 to their opponents while Virginia has rushed for 1,984 and given up only 1,540. Auburn has gained 1,841 yards through the air this year while giving up 2,532. Virginia has gained 2,778 yards passing and has given up 2,578. These statistics don't play as much of a factor because the two teams play completely different schedules but they are still worth looking at to see how they will match up. In general, Virginia can counter Auburns offensive strength (Dyer and the running game) by stopping the run but Auburn won't be able to capitalize on Virginia's weak pass defense because Auburn simply doesn't throw the ball very often, and not very accurately when they do (Trotter: 54.4% CMP). Auburn's defense hasn't proven they can stop anybody this year besides a banged up Florida team; Clemson did whatever they wanted to Auburn offensively. Rocco should have a field day against Auburn's secondary as long as he doesn't turn the ball over. Virginia knows the key to winning this game is stopping Dyer and forcing Trotter to throw the ball. If you stop Dyer, you beat Auburn which Virginia's stingy run defense shouldn't have a problem with. Take Virginia +3. *Edit: Usually don't make mistakes like this but I some how missed Dyer being suspended which makes my play much stronger. Big Ups to the two pickle smoochers below who "kindly" informed me.

[firehoyt]

It's going to be hard for anyone to take your handicapping skills and write up seriously when you don't even know Dyer is suspended from the team and will not be playing in this bowl game.

[BigdaddyQH]

Your style is fine, but it would really help if you knew what you were talking about. You really should have known about the suspension. Now I happen to think that UVA wins this game even without the suspensions, because they simply want it more. On top of all of this, Chizik has to take over the reins as D.C, and O.C. Malzahn's mind will also be somewheres else, like in Arkansas.

[firehoyt]

I'm an Auburn fan an Dyer being out for Auburn will dramatically affect their run game. I look for Frasier to be more involved with QB draw plays. As for Auburn's defense, I feel it will be in alot better hands with Chizik instead of Roof. I still dont see Auburn winning this game though. I'll probably tease Virginia to +10 with the under.

[flocko76]

Auburn's losses: @#14 Clemson, @#7 arkansas, @#1 LSU, @#18 Georgia, and against #2 alabama.
Virginia's losses: @UNC (7-6), #21 Southern miss, NC state, and #11 va tech.

I think auburn is still the more talented team and should handle virginia easily.

[jimbojpc]

Bullet Kays Tough Crowd. keep posting your plays. You appear to be sincere. For real these Bowl games are un predictable. As every team has their own agendas. Post your plays from your experience and knowledge of the team & game. Take the Points is the way 2 go

[Scuba Gooding Jr]

Auburn's losses: @#14 Clemson, @#7 arkansas, @#1 LSU, @#18 Georgia, and against #2 alabama.
Virginia's losses: @UNC (7-6), #21 Southern miss, NC state, and #11 va tech.

I think auburn is still the more talented team and should handle virginia easily.

When will people realize that who a team loses to doesn't matter ?, what matters is if they were in the game or not. Auburn has been blown out in 4 of 5 of their loses. Their wins against credible opponents have been narrow ( Florida 11, Utah St. 4, S.Carolina 3, Miss St. 7), and those games were with leading rusher Michael Dyer playing. Virginia on the other hand has been in every game this season except the VT game, and they still held VT to one of their lower rushing totals of the season in that game. I hate betting against an SEC team in bowls, but in this case I'm not sure how focused Auburn will be with Dyer out and Malzahn leaving for AKSU. Even if their defense is fired up to give their DC a win, their offense won't be able to put up enough points against a stout UVA run d with Dyer out. 49 looks like a huge total to me and I'm goin under for a sizable play. Also might tease UVA to +10 and go UVA +10 and Under 56, but I'm not sure about that part yet. Either way love the under here and really like Virgina.

[Serbone]

When will people realize that who a team loses to doesn't matter ?, what matters is if they were in the game or not. Auburn has been blown out in 4 of 5 of their loses. Their wins against credible opponents have been narrow ( Florida 11, Utah St. 4, S.Carolina 3, Miss St. 7), and those games were with leading rusher Michael Dyer playing. Virginia on the other hand has been in every game this season except the VT game, and they still held VT to one of their lower rushing totals of the season in that game. I hate betting against an SEC team in bowls, but in this case I'm not sure how focused Auburn will be with Dyer out and Malzahn leaving for AKSU. Even if their defense is fired up to give their DC a win, their offense won't be able to put up enough points against a stout UVA run d with Dyer out. 49 looks like a huge total to me and I'm goin under for a sizable play. Also might tease UVA to +10 and go UVA +10 and Under 56, but I'm not sure about that part yet. Either way love the under here and really like Virgina.

Exactly!
Some teams strength of schedules are superior on Sagarin or RPI but they got BLOWN OUT by highly ranked teams so it is irrelevant!

[BigdaddyQH]

These Bowl Games usually go to the team that wants them the most. I see a Virginia team who finally made it back to a bowl. A team that reversed their 4-8 record of a year ago. I also see an Auburn team that has lost it's best offensive weapon, has it's O.C. and D.C. moving on, and went from N.C's to a 5 loss team in one year. I have to go with UVA here.

[mp5070]

Virginia ML...thank me later

[flocko76]

we'll see I just think if virginia played those teams they would have been blown out too. probably worse.

[mmike032]

how many players does Auburn have left from last yrs team?
last yr means nothing to Auburn
missing Dywer will be huge but still have the speedster
AU QB play will be the difference win or lose
I going with the SEC team that played a tuff schedule

[Bullet Kays]

It's going to be hard for anyone to take your handicapping skills and write up seriously when you don't even know Dyer is suspended from the team and will not be playing in this bowl game.

This fact doesn't change anything except make my play stronger. Are you mad that you've been fading my plays and you're 1-3 or something?

[Bullet Kays]

Your style is fine, but it would really help if you knew what you were talking about. You really should have known about the suspension. Now I happen to think that UVA wins this game even without the suspensions, because they simply want it more. On top of all of this, Chizik has to take over the reins as D.C, and O.C. Malzahn's mind will also be somewheres else, like in Arkansas.

If I knew what I was talking about? My write ups are just to help some people out that haven't looked into the game and so far that's all I've done. Did you just claim you knew where Malzahn's mind would be? So you can predict the future and you're a psychic? Do you know Malzahn?? Are you mental?

[RibbedTrojan]

Virginia will be more motivated! On Virginia

[Bullet Kays]

Agree, and I originally capped this game with Dyer playing and still had Virginia covering.

[Bullet Kays]

Adding some on the ml at +130 as well

[Bullet Kays]

Haven't seen much line movement yet but ml has been back and forth at +125 and +130

[rockhardfister]

Im with you.

[Bullet Kays]

I'm liking what I'm seeing from Virginia so far even though the score is tied 7-7...blocked punts and fumbles are impossible to cap

[Shafted69]

wow this guy must be a bookie

[Wboyt]

[Bullet Kays]

Rough couple of days..taking a break for awhile. BOL all

[flocko76]

I'm liking what I'm seeing from Virginia so far even though the score is tied 7-7...blocked punts and fumbles are impossible to cap

i'm not trying to be a dikk because I legitimately don't know what other people do to cap games. but how do you cap a game? I've tried using my xbox 360 to simulate it 100 times, but I think I should lean how to do this better.

[JMUplayer]

I was at the game.... if i would have known minnefield was out that would have changed my opinion.......

UVA just made a ton of mistakes on special teams.... three fumbles hit the ground all all three bounced the tigers way... it was one of those games. If they played 10 times auburn would probably win 7 of them.