That's what I thought at first but wasn't sure. John wanted the link so I just posted it for him
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Hey folks.. Take the UNDER for a 5* play.Comment -
Just heard that K-State has additional issues/injuries/dings/sprains on the defensive front, which means that Arkansas will run the ball far more than their season average. Good Luck!
Will be back at Half-time for another play.Comment -
BoDog had it listed still at 67 -105... most though are 65 1/2 and 65.. We'll use 65 1/2 as the line for this play to fair to all. BUT 67 is an awesome number in my opinion.Comment -
Sick call on Ark coming out running the ball don't think anybody saw that comingComment -
U like anything today in this Pitt game John?Comment -
Nothing today at ll in the SMU/Pitt game.. Perhaps a slight lean on SMU, but nothing serious. Thanks again for all your support this season. The big one comes up Monday and you already have the link for the 20* Titan play on Alabama and 5* 'over' play.
Let's start discussing the BCS Championship game.Comment -
Last edited by Looking4Winners; 01-07-12, 01:31 PM.Comment -
I totally agree.
The late Mort Olshan of The Gold Sheet stated back in the late 1980s that perhaps 50% of all NFL and NCAA FB games were decided by factors outside the realm of "handicapping skill".
late interception
muffed punt
So out of 100 games, Olshan pointed out that the handicapper would be forced to start off at 25 wins - 25 losses
So to hit 57% overall, the handicapping expertise must be able to hit 67% on the remaining 50 games
We just witnessed a huge turnaround in one of the bowl games where a fumble at the two-yard line resulted in the defense returning it 98 yards for a touchdown... prior to that we had a 68-yard run for a touchdown.
Game-time events superimposed themselves on any handicapping expertise that may have existed prior to the game's start.
The question for following/tailing any handicapper is:
1) Are they better than 52.4% proficient overall at picking winners?
2) If "yes"... then how do sound money management principles come into play which affect bet/wager size as a percentage of bankroll.
Be safe... I'd figure that John may be 53.5 % proficient so I'm going to wager 53.5 - (46.5/.91) = 2.4% of my bankroll on his plays (divide your bankroll into 42 equal "wagering" portions)
Now John Ryan's proficiency may currently be better than 53.5%...
...he might be UNLUCKY and be actually better than what his current % proficiency is...
..or he may be LUCKY and we can expect a "reversion to the mean".
So some of those who are following his picks may wish to chime on on how proficient they've observed him to be...
I note that John sometimes posts his database's record ATS so maybe some who have followed him could give us an idea as to what that translates to as his advantage.
...but what should be first & foremost in all of our minds, is that he is committing to the "energy expense" and use of his available free time to help the less capable handicappers here enjoy some measure of handicapping success....
Thank you, John
...and thanks to any informed posters who might want to suggest whether I should slightly raise or lower my bet size based upon your observations and the formula aboveComment -
waiting on the *20 graded play for tonights game!!Comment -
Thank you John for all your hard work and time spent on your picks. Your perspective and insight with handicapping is educational and enjoyable to have! What percentage of a bankroll would you recommend using for your 5* unit plays?Comment -
Originally Posted by John Ryan
Nothing today at ll in the SMU/Pitt game.. Perhaps a slight lean on SMU, but nothing serious. Thanks again for all your support this season. The big one comes up Monday and you already have the link for the 20* Titan play on Alabama and 5* 'over' play.
Let's start discussing the BCS Championship game.
Yeah, in the post above he says "20* Titan play on Alabama and 5* 'over' play"Comment -
i don't see that postComment -
I don't think he posted it here. I think it's on the front page of the SBR picks section.Comment -
John's article on the total states it's a 10* play, but here and in his article picking Alabama ATS he says it's a 5* play. Can you clarify John? Thanks.Comment -
John let us know your pick. I'm interested. I dont understand how this is a 20* play in an absolute crapshoot of a game, but hey....i'd love to hear your insight.Comment -
No he has it listed as a 20*
"John Ryan has a 20 * graded play on Alabama as they take on LSU in the BCS Championship game. He has also recorded a podcast for the game and thank you message to all those that contributed to his thread and analysis."
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Sorry but I understand how someone can be on Alabama, I was early on.......but a 20* play on this game beats me.Comment -
how do u put a 20* play out for 2 teams so equal?Comment -
Fade TimeComment -
Sorry, I guess I wasn't very clear the way I wrote my statement. John's pick ATS is definitely a 20* play. I understand that. Where I'm confused is his pick on the total. In the article itself he writes his pick is a 10* play, but in one post on this thread and in the article he wrote for the ATS pick, he states it is a 5* play. Just wondering which one is correct.Comment -
yes, just to clarify since the articles have been out for about a week. 20* Alabama... and 5* 'Over' Alabama line has steadily risen, but BoDog still has it it pick -120.. I will lay the wood. The 'over' is getting support as well late.. I was able to 40 personally, but is currentty at 41 1/2 -110.Comment -
John I know your all over Bama. but i dont see this teaser losing.
LSU +9.5
Baltimore ravens -1Comment -
John do u like over 2nd half after watching 1st half? It's a bargain if u liked 40 for gameComment -
Great pick John, thanks!Comment -
we're not worthy. I suck, I suck.
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