sandman week 12

sandman0713 · 11-14-11, 06:54 AM

btw...before anyone comes in here throwing numbers at me from last years game and telling me i am wrong, just don't bother. the ou d was completely different last year, and the o don't look so great this year either. just a game that i like, and will bet regardless...so save the debate for one of the 25 ou\baylor threads soon to be created in this forum...lol.

sandman0713 · 11-14-11, 07:16 AM

also want to go ahead and get on no illinois tuesday at -19...before it jumps. ball state d gave up 600 yards, over 400 passing, to w mich...a team much like n illinois. pass d and rush d have been blasted many times each this year for huge numbers. looks like whatever the teams want to do is what they do...like they give up 300 rushing one week and then like 450 passing the next week. i just think they have no chance to stop the n ill run game...and that leaves the best qb in the mac picking and choosing from wide open wrs. if n ill shows up to play, they should score every single time they touch the ball. things rarely go according to plan in the mac, thus the smaller bet...but this is about as much as i ever like a game in the mac.

n ill -19 for 3 units

Coach Jake · 11-14-11, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by sandman0713

btw...before anyone comes in here throwing numbers at me from last years game and telling me i am wrong, just don't bother. the ou d was completely different last year, and the o don't look so great this year either. just a game that i like, and will bet regardless...so save the debate for one of the 25 ou\baylor threads soon to be created in this forum...lol.

Yo, not here to argue, but Baylor also has of key CB injuries in Tyler Stephenson(starter), Chance Casey (3yr starter!!!), tuswani copeland, and dmetri goodwin....Also how is the OU Defense different from last year if they returned 8 starters and the D coordinator of 13 years? What about all of the Baylor OU games before last? Im from Texas, hate OU and like RG3, but there's really no stats pointing to Baylor except for Ryan Broyles(2x All American) being hurt. OU has plenty of depth at WR and many have played because of injuries, so I don't see this hurting OU too bad...Baylor on the other hand only returned 5 players on their d and 2 are hurt right now. I got really lucky with Baylor on my ML parlays last week, but a weak Kansas team was beating them by 14 and the 3 point win wasn't even close to the -22 spread they were given. Dont fall for the RG3 points man, this game should be Baylor +21. This game was 53-10 going into the 4th quarter last year, so I would be pretty suprised if baylor covers. I think money is in Baylor for the win like you said, because OU plays bad against good qbs, especially on the road, but its tough to bet against OU leading up to the OSU showdown. GL on this, maybe Bryles was saving the good stuff @ Kansas for Oklahoma.

RenoHightower · 11-14-11, 11:47 AM

Don't let the Aggie in you take Baylor because they are playing OU...OU is going to destroy Baylor.

sandman0713 · 11-14-11, 01:20 PM

last 4 years..

at ttech loss
w only 17-7 at ames
at colo loss
at miami loss
at nebraska loss
at ttech loss
at cinci only 31-29 win
at mizzou loss
at a+m loss

like i said...not really into the bickering this week. only a 3 unit bet for me...so it is not like i will be dumping my roll on this one game, or sweating it if i lose. as i look at the board now, i would guess i will have 3-4 plays bigger than this. just posted it first to get the number...tho when i bet it friday i will likely get 17+ thru my local. these guys have sucked on the raod for several years under stoops, and many of these losses or close games were unexplainable. and no jake...this d is not the same. i watch every ou game, and this is the softest ou d i have seen under stoops. this o has also struggled big without whaley...even their 2 wins the o has not looked right. now you take out broyles...and you have stills being taken out of the game, as baylor gameplans for stopping this one wr no matter what...with a weaker running game now and a qb that sucks on the road. it just seems like one of those games ou will barely win or lose. not the aggie in me either reno...lol. if you would have watched my picks you would know this is the first time all year i have bet against oklahoma...and i have bet on them 4 or 5 times. i don't want ou dropping a game to baylor before bedlam, as i feel this would put a damper on it...but i do feel there is a good chance they struggle or lose this game. maybe i'm wrong tho, and i can live with that. you guys can all come tell me after the game how dumb i am. gotta bet what i like tho...and i like this for 3 units.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by sandman0713

btw...before anyone comes in here throwing numbers at me from last years game and telling me i am wrong, just don't bother. the ou d was completely different last year, and the o don't look so great this year either. just a game that i like, and will bet regardless...so save the debate for one of the 25 ou\baylor threads soon to be created in this forum...lol.

who told you this??? OU D gave up 22 points per game last season compared to about 19 this year. If anything they're better defensively this year

anyways, I think you're nuts to put money on Baylor against a good offensive team. We've already seen these guys lose by 28 points to Texas A&M and by 35 to OKst. When are people gonna understand this team is a fraud??

Every year they start out hot against mediocre competition and then they get annihilated when they start to play good teams. In any case, why aren't you just playing the over here?? OU should score about 50-60 points in this game, the only way Baylor will cover is with a 56-45 type score. Just play the over so you'll be safe in the unlikely scenario that Baylor covers and the likely scenario that they get smashed

sandman0713 · 11-14-11, 01:51 PM

dam...whatever guys. it is a 3 unit bet...and i could go on all day about what i like about it. in my very first post tho i stated i would like to post my plays in this thread...which are +47 units this year...and leave the debate to you guys in one of the baylor\oklahoma threads. i know why i like it...and it is my own money i will be betting on it this week. gl guys with this week. trying to finish up on a couple of bball games tonight, and i just don't really care about getting into a week long thing here.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by sandman0713

dam...whatever guys. it is a 3 unit bet...and i could go on all day about what i like about it. in my very first post tho i stated i would like to post my plays in this thread...which are +47 units this year...and leave the debate to you guys in one of the baylor\oklahoma threads. i know why i like it...and it is my own money i will be betting on it this week. gl guys with this week. trying to finish up on a couple of bball games tonight, and i just don't really care about getting into a week long thing here.

I think you realize it's a horrible bet but you're still moving forward with it because you want OU to lose so badly

never let emotion get in the way of betting

sandman0713 · 11-14-11, 02:13 PM

yeah...you got me man. haven't bet against these ***** all year, and i have lost money on them several times...but now i am throwing out a bad bet on baylor because i want them to lose. you say some dumb shit here...but that is about the dumbest i have heard. if i was to bet it because of emotion i would just bet the ******* thing without posting it here...then i wouldn't have to worry about super smart people like yourself telling me after the game how dumb i am. let it go man.

Coach Jake · 11-14-11, 02:34 PM

You might as well cover that up with 4 units on OK while you still can. Baylor's 4 injured cbs can take a toll on a young secondary, esp in a big game like this. I know Ok gives up a bunch of trash loses, and I just think the real money is in the ML, but not the spread. If OU wins they usually win big, so just sayin lookout for those injuries to 1 critical position, definitely a red flag. It's just like Texas with their 3 leading rushers out...

sandman0713 · 11-14-11, 02:46 PM

ok...here are the rest of my bets this week. gonna go ahead and post now, and that way i can take a break from this football forum and focus on some hoops this week. brah...jake...man i hear you guys ok. not being a dick, but i just don't care. i see what i see...sometimes i am right and sometimes i am wrong. i can handle a 3 unit loss if i happen to lose...not a big deal. thanks for the input, but my mind is made up. rest of the week looks like...

n illinois -19 for 3 units

b green +7 for 2 units
w mich +2 for 2 units

n carolina +11 for 1 unit
so miss -23 for 1 unit

c mich +14.5 for 1 unit

baylor +14.5 for 3 units

back with saturday and maybe some weeknight totals later. just not in the mood to debate these games this week. gl all this week.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 03:03 PM

dude nobody is trying to insult you here

we're just saying you're crazy for taking 14 points on a team that has lost by 24+ points 6 times in the last 2 season

Baylor is a fraud and I'm shocked you don't realize that being a big 12 fan

sandman0713 · 11-14-11, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

dude nobody is trying to insult you here

we're just saying you're crazy for taking 14 points on a team that has lost by 24+ points 6 times in the last 2 season

Baylor is a fraud and I'm shocked you don't realize that being a big 12 fan

i'm not taking it as an insult bro...other than you accusing me of betting based on emotion. i have won at a pretty consistent clip this year...even betting 150+ games so far...and i think you know that is not easy. not my greatest season so far...but i couldn't even do this well if i was betting with emotion instead of common sense. the thing you are not understanding is that my mind is made up, and i don't want to argue about this game all week. i get into all kinds of debates in the game threads each week...but once i post a play in here, i have either already bet it or i am 100% certain i am going to bet it. i been doing this shit for almost 20 years man...and sometimes you just feel stuff. i felt a bad week coming...thus the smaller plays last week. the fact that several people came into my thread last week and said "good job" and stuff like that when this has not happened much before...it just lead me to believe even more i was in for a bad saturday. small bets and the fact i was able to talk myself out of chasing let me get thru it with only like 4.5 units lost. what i know about ou, certain things i have seen from baylor this year, and just that feel that comes from 20 years of experience tell me this is a close game. i could very well be wrong man...happens a lot. if i am i will take my 3 unit loss and move on...no big deal. thanks for the input...and i hope we can save the week long debate on this game. gl this week.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by sandman0713

i'm not taking it as an insult bro...other than you accusing me of betting based on emotion. i have won at a pretty consistent clip this year...even betting 150+ games so far...and i think you know that is not easy. not my greatest season so far...but i couldn't even do this well if i was betting with emotion instead of common sense. the thing you are not understanding is that my mind is made up, and i don't want to argue about this game all week. i get into all kinds of debates in the game threads each week...but once i post a play in here, i have either already bet it or i am 100% certain i am going to bet it. i been doing this shit for almost 20 years man...and sometimes you just feel stuff. i felt a bad week coming...thus the smaller plays last week. the fact that several people came into my thread last week and said "good job" and stuff like that when this has not happened much before...it just lead me to believe even more i was in for a bad saturday. small bets and the fact i was able to talk myself out of chasing let me get thru it with only like 4.5 units lost. what i know about ou, certain things i have seen from baylor this year, and just that feel that comes from 20 years of experience tell me this is a close game. i could very well be wrong man...happens a lot. if i am i will take my 3 unit loss and move on...no big deal. thanks for the input...and i hope we can save the week long debate on this game. gl this week.

we at least put 3 units on the over as well

Baylor's defense is arguably the worst in the country - OU should score 50 points with their eyes closed

sandman0713 · 11-14-11, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

we at least put 3 units on the over as well

Baylor's defense is arguably the worst in the country - OU should score 50 points with their eyes closed

i may...after i see the weather report. strong winds must be taken into account in this part of the country this time of the year. the ou running game is not as potent without whaley, and i don't like the over much if it is windy. also...baylor ran the ball on ostate and drained the clock at every chance they got. if they do the same thing...which they will no doubt...and are able to run the ball, may be iffy. waiting til a little later this week to decide...but yes it is on my list of considerations.

sandman0713 · 11-16-11, 01:17 PM

91-66-3 and +44.5 units after last night. adding totals for tonight, so here is my complete card.

b green +7 **
w mich +2 **

w mich under 60 for 1 unit: miami ohio just doesn't score that many points, and their d is pretty good. the w mich d stats look really bad because they have played maybe the 3 best o's in the mac last few games, but i feel they have plenty of d to make this like a 24-17 game.

b green under 59 for 1 unit: prolly crazy to play both mac unders...lol...but i feel there is value in each. trying to find a way to put my thoughts on this game that doesn't make me sound dumb...but i give up. i just feel the bg d does the job tonight...both teams try to control clock...and we have an ugly game.

17-13-2 and +4 units in hoops. playing...

oregon state -7 ****
ga southern +12.5 **
pitt under 141 **

gl all tonight.

sandman0713 · 11-16-11, 04:46 PM

kansas under 66 for 3 units: this game is a total mismatch, but 31 is just too many to lay. kansas cannot pass the ball this year, and there is no way at all they line up and run this ball on a+m...meaning kansas may not score a point in other words. i could see like 35-0 at half...and then a+m just pounding it at the terrible kansas run d as both teams try to just run out the clock and move on.

texas tech +18 for 2 units: mizzou pass d is weak. people can throw out total pass d numbers at me for mizzou...but look at big 12 numbers against good passing teams. tech will score some points in this game, and with josey out mizzou will not be as potent in the running game...and this is nowhere near the kind of team that can just line up and pass at will against anyone really. i think it is a close game. thought over at first...but i could see a case where neither o can run it and they both struggle.

houston -20 for 4 units: houston games just aren't this close. i see nothing here to suggest smu at all. their d is awful, and they don't have the kind of running game to keep the ball from houston. people, including myself, were judging this smu d to be good early in the year based on stats alone...but that hasn't turned out to be the case. maybe i lose here...but this play is about as obvious as it gets.

s florida under 52.5 for 2 units: every time they have played it has went under this total. 2 pretty good d's...and neither team is scoring over 24 against the better d's they have faced. only way this hits 53 is ot.

navy -5 for 5 units: sj has no chance at all to stop the navy running game. very poor run d, and navy runs for over 300 yards easy. this game is a beatdown in the 2nd half as the sjsu d wears out. no way they keep up.

tennessee +2 for 2 units: feel like the tenn boys will be ready to play against in-state team they completely own over the years. will be all about winning this game and saving face. vandi might be as good or slightly better, but i gotta roll with big bro here.

texas under 53.5 for 2 units: 2 really strong run d's and 2 1-dimensional o's. gonna be an ugly game imo.

brahmabull117 · 11-16-11, 04:51 PM

you playing Penn St under and Oregon over this week too??

Nearly every penn st game against other defensive minded team goes under and every oregon game against other offensive minded teams goes over

sandman0713 · 11-17-11, 12:22 AM

95-66-3 and +49.9 units after a nice night. adding the over in the marshall game. marshall d is trash on the road..and i see memphis as good for 20+ points. so...

n carolina +11 *
so miss -23 *
marshall over 50 **

c mich +14.5 *

navy -5 *****
houston -20 ****
baylor +14.5 ***
kansas under 66 ***
texas tech +18 **
s florida under 52.5 **
texas under 53.5 **
tennessee +2 **

gl all the rest of the week.

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 11-17-11, 08:09 AM

Good Luck Sandman!!

sandman0713 · 11-17-11, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by CTOWNsCAPPIN

Good Luck Sandman!!

ty sir

sandman0713 · 11-17-11, 12:27 PM

today's card...

95-66-3 +49.9 units ncaa f'ball

n carolina +11 *
so miss -23 *
marshall over 50 **

19-14-2 +7.4 units ncaa bball

iona +5 **
iona over 139 **
maryland over 127.5 **
taxas a+m -4 **
n'western -8 *
vcu -2 *
ga tech +2 *
san diego -6 ***

gl all today.

sandman0713 · 11-17-11, 11:41 PM

96-68-3 and +47.8 after a crappy night. getting mopped up in bball today too...just one of those days.

c mich +14.5 *

navy -5 *****
houston -20 ****
baylor +14.5 ***
kansas under 66 ***
texas tech +18 **
s florida under 52.5 **
texas under 53.5 **
tennessee +2 **

sandman0713 · 11-19-11, 01:12 AM

96-69-3 and +46.8 after c mich got smacked by toledo. my boys just gave a game away, and that has me pissed...but it is just a game i guess. always see this crazy stuff with the top 5 teams at the end of the year...crazy stuff. not tilted or anything...anymore than normal...but i am gonna go with half my roll out there tomm i am thinking. time to make some money, or not. already bet the games below earlier in the week, but adding games all day...as long as i have money...lol. i will use the sbr lines like always as i post the early games i am adding...but i will call them into my guy in the morning. first...

navy -5 *****
houston -20 ****
baylor +14.5 ***
kansas under 66 ***
texas tech +18 **
s florida under 52.5 **
texas under 53.5 **
tennessee +2 **

adding...

iowa -1.5 ***
louisville under 40.5 **
cinci -2.5 ***
e mich under 41 ***...overlooked this one
nebraska +3.5 ***

there you go...early morning "tilt" games...lol. if i am winning early i will be back with later games. if i am getting spanked early, you may not here from me again...lol. gl all tomm.

sandman0713 · 11-19-11, 02:49 PM

getting my butt kicked yet again by the man this morning. adding my afternoon and evening plays that will put over 50% of my roll in play. if i get spanked today i will prolly be done with football for this year...maybe some bowl games, but nothing before. adding...

clemson -6.5 ****
mizzou over 66 ***
penn state over 37.5 ***
texas -7.5 ****
boise -18.5 ****

sandman0713 · 11-20-11, 01:15 AM

man...6-2 on my original plays, before all this added bs. 103-80-3 and +25.1 units on the year now...after dropping almost half my winnings for the season today. no excuse...just terrible money management and chasing from someone who knows better. was going to stop til bowls...but now i am thinking i will just take back every penny of it and some more the next 2 weeks. just can't be adding these action games late that i haven't even really studied...gets me week after week. gl next week all.

Coach Jake · 11-20-11, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by sandman0713

man...5-2 on my original plays, before all this added bs. 103-80-3 and +25.1 units on the year now...after dropping almost half my winnings for the season today. no excuse...just terrible money management and chasing from someone who knows better. was going to stop til bowls...but now i am thinking i will just take back every penny of it and some more the next 2 weeks. just can't be adding these action games late that i haven't even really studied...gets me week after week. gl next week all.

I think everyone lost out pretty bad today, alot of crazy games...u'll make that back, props on RG3

sandman0713 · 11-20-11, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by Coach Jake

I think everyone lost out pretty bad today, alot of crazy games...u'll make that back, props on RG3

baylor was about the only thing i got right yesterday...lol. when i start winning like i have been, i sometimes get a little overconfident and start thinking i can bet a bunch of games...and the ones i added late i didn't even study really. that is what gets me each week...and it really got me this week. just gotta go with my original plays. btw...i was happy for rg3. he has had a lot of bs in his career, and good to see him get some good. ou deep secondary sucks ass, and that guy throws a really pretty deep pass. i think he actually missed a couple of those deep ones and had one dropped...otherwise he could have had 6 or 7 td passes...crazy.

sandman0713 · 11-20-11, 01:31 PM

see what i am saying...

6-2 and +6.5 units...or something close to that...on the plays i studied and posted early.
1-9 and like -26 units on the games i added late without really studying.

learn each week tho i guess.