Tulsa @ UCF Write Up.....

[Pickma$ter]

Current line is -1 to -1.5 UCF at most shops.
Over/Under 48.5

This Total is a red flag to begin with as this is the first time all year Tulsa has had a total under 58 a full 10 points lower!!! This is also the highest total UCF has had against a Div. 1 school this year. All UCF games at home have gone under this year and all of Tulsa's away games have gone under this year. Just alone off the Over/Under #'s its UCF or nothing. UCF has yet to allow a TD at home this year, as their SOS at home has been weak has a large part of it. UCF has been a solid team at home but a terrible road team. UCF announced that ALL students have free admision for the game as they want a rowdy crowd. Tulsa is breaking in a new defense and a new coach this year and their offensive #'s are way down compared to their past results. Defense seems to be a little better though but they lack those big offensive 30+ yardage plays Tulsa has been known for in the past. Tulsa's is +6 in turnover margin in their last two games and is +4 TOM in conference play. UCF is -1 in TOM in conference play. I already know the over in this game will flooded by the public and Tulsa will be the Public favorite here as well due to UAB upsetting UCF a few weeks back and Tulsa smashing SMU last week in which SMU help Tulsa in that game with 5 turnovers. History has shown the home team wins by 20+. This matchup is key on the UCF homefeild advantage with the crowd being involved, this is Tulsa's real conference road test with a new coach. UCF had a new game plan with their QB last week and proved to be succesful as they are letting Godfrey pull down the ball and run more as he got 97 yards off of 10 carries. UCF has a higher power ranking and being at home with the student crowd, Godfrey playing more loose, sound defense and Tulsa's lower offensive production and surviving on Turnovers I love UCF -1.

[gshock1]

Great write up. I'm on UCF at -1.5. Good luck today!

[Pickma$ter]

Great write up. I'm on UCF at -1.5. Good luck today!

Thanks lets cash it.

[Lock Of The Aeon]

With you on this one. Good luck!

[Vin_vermillion]

wITH YA PICKMASTER!

[thebestthereis]

Was at UCF for conference USA championship between these teams a few years back, good luck!

[Love The Action]

Possible....but I still like Tulsa. UCF is very undisciplined. And theres no way your "secret power ratings" that you mentioned in NC's thread have UCF higher than Tulsa. Advanced efficiency numbers favor Tulsa considerably in most areas and SOS clearly favors Tulsa in generating such solid numbers. Qualitative factors are pretty even, so I dont see the edge here on UCF. The public is NOT heavy on Tulsa so far as SI has about 58% on Tulsa. That's not a huge public play where 75%+ are on one side. Finally, early money was clearly backing Tulsa. I like them to pick up the road win tonight or otherwise cover the +1.5 in a close game. GL.

[Pickma$ter]

Possible....but I still like Tulsa. UCF is very undisciplined. And theres no way your "secret power ratings" that you mentioned in NC's thread have UCF higher than Tulsa. Advanced efficiency numbers favor Tulsa considerably in most areas and SOS clearly favors Tulsa in generating such solid numbers. Qualitative factors are pretty even, so I dont see the edge here on UCF. The public is NOT heavy on Tulsa so far as SI has about 58% on Tulsa. That's not a huge public play where 75%+ are on one side. Finally, early money was clearly backing Tulsa. I like them to pick up the road win tonight or otherwise cover the +1.5 in a close game. GL.

Im showing at a square shop 69% is on Tulsa and 90% on the Over. I know of several different sharps that are on different sides here. This will not be a 1 sided sharp play as both sides will have sharp $. UCF does infact have a higher power ranking but not by much. odds makers have UCF 46th & Tulsa 54th.

[Pickma$ter]

Possible....but I still like Tulsa. UCF is very undisciplined. And theres no way your "secret power ratings" that you mentioned in NC's thread have UCF higher than Tulsa. Advanced efficiency numbers favor Tulsa considerably in most areas and SOS clearly favors Tulsa in generating such solid numbers. Qualitative factors are pretty even, so I dont see the edge here on UCF. The public is NOT heavy on Tulsa so far as SI has about 58% on Tulsa. That's not a huge public play where 75%+ are on one side. Finally, early money was clearly backing Tulsa. I like them to pick up the road win tonight or otherwise cover the +1.5 in a close game. GL.

LTA, as I consider your plays sharp, one of my best buds is extermly heavy on Tulsa this week. Alot of different views on this game from different cappers. This game will show us a lot as Im not perfect and not 100% correct all the time.

[Love The Action]

Im showing at a square shop 69% is on Tulsa and 90% on the Over. I know of several different sharps that are on different sides here. This will not be a 1 sided sharp play as both sides will have sharp $. UCF does infact have a higher power ranking but not by much. odds makers have UCF 46th & Tulsa 54th.

Wait...you are saying that vegas power ratings of UCF - a team with a much
weaker strength of schedule, with much worse advanced offensive numbers, much worse advanced special teams ratings and comparable advanced defensive numbers - is rated higher than Tulsa overall or just in one specific category which you did not mention? How could Tulsa be rated lower than UCF overall? Something is wrong because even the most basic predictive algorhythms use SOS and that would clearly boost Tulsa over UCF. Can you post the entire power rating list in order and do you know how its derived? Perhaps you were just referring to one category, probably defensive, and not overall...correct? I just can't get my head around UCF being rated higher knowing what I know about modeling and advanced efficiency numbers. Something is off....

Thanks for the discussion...should be a good game regardless....GL

[Love The Action]

LTA, as I consider your plays sharp, one of my best buds is extermly heavy on Tulsa this week. Alot of different views on this game from different cappers. This game will show us a lot as Im not perfect and not 100% correct all the time.

Thanks...good luck. I'm not knocking your play. UCF could win, but I actually have Tulsa slightly favored at -2, so I see a lit of value on Tulsa. No one is right 100% and you are correct that sharp money is mixed.

I'm really interested in those power numbers. Would love to get my hands on those. Good luck bud

[Pickma$ter]

Wait...you are saying that vegas power ratings of UCF - a team with a much weaker strength of schedule, with much worse advanced offensive numbers, much worse advanced special teams ratings and comparable advanced defensive numbers - is rated higher than Tulsa overall or just in one specific category which you did not mention? How could Tulsa be rated lower than UCF overall? Something is wrong because even the most basic predictive algorhythms use SOS and that would clearly boost Tulsa over UCF. Can you post the entire power rating list in order and do you know how its derived? Perhaps you were just referring to one category, probably defensive, and not overall...correct? I just can't get my head around UCF being rated higher knowing what I know about modeling and advanced efficiency numbers. Something is off.... Thanks for the discussion...should be a good game regardless....GL

I have 2 sets of power ratings available to me and they are very similar to each other. No its not setup like u think it would be. There is several factors that are involved in it. It took me good 6 hours to understand how it all works and to propery read and derive out the "true power rating" for each team for each matchup to get the true spread, but hardly does vegas bring out a game with a true spread.. I still do not know the formula used and honestly I highly doubt i could understand it all.

[Pickma$ter]

Well let me tell you its already hetic enough trying to get down early already as it is. Their is several people that access to these #'s as people tend to share in the betting business. The problem with that is you are competing with each and every one of them come Sunday when the lines get released. The books are smart they know certain people have the #'s thats why they move push the lines so fast so they dont get middled and so they can increase there %'s of winnings. Its another reason why VERY few books open their lines on Sunday and they wait until the next day once the lines have settled in.

[Pickma$ter]

Thanks...good luck. I'm not knocking your play. UCF could win, but I actually have Tulsa slightly favored at -2, so I see a lit of value on Tulsa. No one is right 100% and you are correct that sharp money is mixed. I'm really interested in those power numbers. Would love to get my hands on those. Good luck bud

You wouldn't have said that about 3 weeks ago as I have burned by these #s. OSU has really been a bad word to the odds makers. There is several #s off every week but as of lately they have been getting pretty close.

[Seaton420]

UCF sucks! tulsa by 7+

[Pickma$ter]

UCF sucks! tulsa by 7+

Congrations..yes you are included in the square%. Thanks for making my play look even stronger.

[Pin Fish]

Question,,,,I see at Tulane 31-3….at Rice 38-20 …… home vs N Texas 41-24…UAB 37-20…..S Methodist 38-7…losing at Okl 14-47 at Boise 21-41 at home vs Okl St 35=59

I see UCF losing at FIU 10-17…at BYU 17-24 at S Methodist 17-38 at UAB 24-26…Winning at home Charleston Southern 62-0….. BC 30-3…Marshall 16-6…Memphis 41-0

Tulsa 3 losses came against top 10 teams…UCF got beat by an ok FIU team at the time a struggling BYU bottom dwelling UAB and S Methodist…the last 2 are common opponents getting beat soundly by Tulsa……..any power ranking and offensive/defensive stats are worthless unless you factor in the strength of schedule…..

Vegas is BEGGNG you to take undefeated at home UCF…Oh and by the way the line opened at -3 and has dropped to -1.5 with 60 percent on UCF…….making UCF THE "SQUARE" play...........

GOOD LUCK TAKING UCF…………

[Pin Fish]

PS I am on FSU as well tonight……same as you PMaster

[Star999]

Nice write up ! Good luck .

[Facepunch]

UCF has won against Memphis, Marshall, and Boston College, I am not even going to count the Charleston Southern win. Every one of these teams has a losing record, and every one of these teams is ranked outside of the top 100 offenses in the country.

UCF's Defense is over valued and it will show tonight against the best offense they have seen this season.

Statistically speaking in #'s anyway

ESPN corroborates this Total yards leaders
as does Covers.com covers.com/sports/power-ranking/ncaaf-power-ranking.aspx

[DerekMadden]

thanks for confirming my pick in Tulsa!

[Pickma$ter]

Question,,,,I see at Tulane 31-3….at Rice 38-20 …… home vs N Texas 41-24…UAB 37-20…..S Methodist 38-7…losing at Okl 14-47 at Boise 21-41 at home vs Okl St 35=59 I see UCF losing at FIU 10-17…at BYU 17-24 at S Methodist 17-38 at UAB 24-26…Winning at home Charleston Southern 62-0….. BC 30-3…Marshall 16-6…Memphis 41-0 Tulsa 3 losses came against top 10 teams…UCF got beat by an ok FIU team at the time a struggling BYU bottom dwelling UAB and S Methodist…the last 2 are common opponents getting beat soundly by Tulsa……..any power ranking and offensive/defensive stats are worthless unless you factor in the strength of schedule….. Vegas is BEGGNG you to take undefeated at home UCF…Oh and by the way the line opened at -3 and has dropped to -1.5 with 60 percent on UCF…….making UCF THE "SQUARE" play........... GOOD LUCK TAKING UCF…………

I think if you re-read your write up this you will confirm that Tulsa is the Square play and this is what everyone can see and use but there is more to it. Power ratings are how good the odds makers think a team is.

[Pin Fish]

I think if you re-read your write up this you will confirm that Tulsa is the Square play and this is what everyone can see and use but there is more to it. Power ratings are how good the odds makers think a team is.

LETS HEAR IT FOR THE SQUARES....