King Friday's Picks (Starting Week 9)

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by KingFriday

Full time Auburn Student, addicted to SEC ball and currently 8-0 on SEC picks including the Auburn v Ark UNDER that everyone preached OVER. IDK, special I know but still lol.

Anyways, here's my action for week 9:

5$ Clemson (-4.5) v Ga Tech. This might be upset, but I watched Clemson take out a 14 pt deficit against my Tigers. People screaming upset, but triple option is flat and Clemson QB is on fire.

5$ Georgia (-3) v Florida. Georgia is hot right now, and Florida with the redshirt freshman QB is cold as ice. An SEC lock. Another generous spread, showing Florida love LSU (-14)> HAHA.

10$ Arkansas (-10.5) v Vandy. Really? This is almost automatic. OK so what Vandy's QB is Aaron Rodgers family, but that still can't help this team. Arkansas with Tyler Bray has a potent offense.

10$ Stanford (-8) v USC. Yeah ok USC QB has put up impressive #s and a strong showing but Luck & Co have this spread covered no problem as long as they don't turn the ball over (which LUCK never does) and score in the redzone (which LUCK is 100%).

15$ Wisconsin (-7.5) v Ohio St. After last weeks upset, they will release the Kraken on the buckeyes. OhSt is a disappointment this season and expect Wisconsin to finish in blow out fashion.

And if you have any confidence in a Auburn student that lives and dies by his team, TAKE THE AUBURN v OLE MISS UNDER 50 1/2. Our offense is struggling, this is def. not last year and Ole Miss is a mess.

Good Luck to everyone this weekend. BTW I took UCONN/UNDER last night, learning experience. Never bet Big East, and never bet baseball.

So much wrong with this post its overwhelming

firehoyt · 10-27-11, 07:04 AM

Tyler Bray is the Tenn QB buddy, not Arkansas.

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 07:09 AM

Could you explain? I could use some constructive criticism.

My first picks from Week 7:
LSU (-14) WIN
Michigan (-8) WIN
Boise (-22) and 59O WIN
Auburn ARK Under WIN
Georgia (-2) WIN
LSU and Boise parlayed WIN

Miss St (-20) v UAB LOSS (WTF lol)

I think I'm on a good start. Any help appriciated.

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 07:10 AM

Excuse me Tyler Wilson, small slip.

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by firehoyt

Tyler Bray is the Tenn QB buddy, not Arkansas.

Correct, and Vandy's D is more than capable of keeping them in the game... and the comparison to the Ark vs Auburn game is pointless... why not compare it to the Ole Miss game?

For Florida, Brantley will play

OHST has been a relative disappointment. They lost to MSU by 3, Nebraska by 7 only because they lost their QB, and a decent Miami team in Miami pretty badly. They also crushed Illinois. I dont think they win this game but they are better than people give them credit for.

Clemson overcoming 14 vs Auburn isnt much of a selling point as Auburn had already given up 38 to USU in week 1 and everyone knew their defense was in shambles.

Stanford will crush... you did get that correct. and I am with you on the Clemson Pick...

but Florida should cover
“Florida tries to avoid its longest losing streak in 23 years”
“Florida has won three straight in the series and 18 of 21” -ESPN

and be weary of the Vandy game
“The Razorbacks have faced first-half deficits in each of their last three games, trailing by an average of 14.0 points, but have managed to come away unscathed as they've outscored their opponents 64-10 after halftime.” -ESPN

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:19 AM

lol I cant deny your 8-0 record is pretty cool (regardless of reasoning) I should make a parlay using these picks and see if I get lucky and spike soemthing amazing lol, I'll make a 6 teamer with your picks for hmmmm 50 bucks.... ha Good Luck

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:24 AM

God I have been irresponsible this week but this would be classic
Risking : 50.00 To Win : 2,305.63 USD

I got 800 on Houston over tonight which is 4x my usual bet... if I hit that I will probably calm my nerves, if that misses, I may be on "TILT-WATCH"

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 07:26 AM

Vandy has talent and has replaced Ole Miss (now worst in conf).

Every team has a slip game,(VT v James Madison, Oregon v Cal (3pts!!!) ) but ARK will not be the same team that was last week v OLE Miss. They are consistent and have a great QB. The Florida that has won three straight series is not the Florida of this year. PERIOD. Last year they scraped past GA with Urban Meyer, but this Florida will not. Auburn defense ALWAYS gets better as the year progresses (held Florida to 6). This is the NAVY nightmare game in Auburn this weekend, but with a rookie O line our running game is hurting, and Clint Mosley is still to be tested.

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 07:38 AM

Did you parlay those picks for 50$? I do a lil bit of homework, and I've watched SEC ball for years, and its usually the most consistent overall.

OH St has only scored 7 pts or less in 3 of their last 5 games. Wisconsin has scored 48-59 pts in 5 of 7 games.

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by spladle08

God I have been irresponsible this week but this would be classic
Risking : 50.00 To Win : 2,305.63 USD

I got 800 on Houston over tonight which is 4x my usual bet... if I hit that I will probably calm my nerves, if that misses, I may be on "TILT-WATCH"

O-70.5!!!! 800$

man, too rich for my blood. has to be a sure thing. how do you reason?

I know Houston has an amazingly potent offense but damn.

I picked that Boise 59 O, they went 50-0 in 4th, stopped scoring. Finally SJ ran a punt back for 7, and after that Boise ran the clock and Sj would go all or nothing. It was last play in the game on 20 yrd line Boise QB scrambles and rush 20 yd for TD on last second 4th down. I couldnt believe it. SJ had been scoring atleast 20-30 pts a game, and got shut out.

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:47 AM

I didnt have any problem with your Auburn Under pick (and dont use the Florida game to demonstrate the defensive power... Like you said with the new QB Florida is turrrrible on offense, hell last year after that same brutal 2 games vs LSU and Bama they only hung 7 on Ole Miss... its hard to stay up for 3 games in a row, and you do get beat up a litte against strong defensive teams.)

But if you are arguing this years FLA team w/Brantley is worse than last years team... I disagree...

Arkansas does have a great QB and they are consistent...but doesnt that mean putting up similar performances?

They beat Troy by 10
lost to Bama by 24
Beat A&M by 4
Beat Aurburn by 24
and beat Ole Miss by 5

Thats the last 5 games (left out the first 2 vs NM and Missouri State) but anyways if consistency is the name of the game, the only time they woud have covered 10 in their last 5 games is against Auburn (the game you referenced in your breakdown)

Conversely Vandy has lost by 10 2x
@ Bama and @ South Carolina, but they have been tough at home and played UGA well...

I don't disagree with your pick.. I just disagree thats its anywhere near automatic

DerekMadden · 10-27-11, 07:49 AM

Splade,

you are getting real annoying hating on Ark in EVERY thread
It is people like you that make a lot of people lose money

box scores do not tell the whole story

38-17 Arkansas wins easily

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:51 AM

I played that Boise game as well but I am under the impression you are talking about the Fresno game...

And here was my breakdown Monday for the Houston Over

Early Lean for Thursday
Thursday: Rice vs Houston: OVER (anything under 70)
Rice (22.3 / 32.6) 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U
Houston (49.3 / 23.4) 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U
Obviously a person should lean Houston ATS but @ -27 this requires some research.
Houston’s offense averages 606 yards, while Rice averages about half of that (326 yards) wow.
Houston also has the better defense, allowing ~64 yards less per game. Houston should murder them, as you have the top offense vs one of the worst defenses, but in the past it has been relatively close and though I can’t see Rice winning, they haven’t lost by 27+ all year, and they have played decent offenses @ Texas and Baylor, and vs Tulsa. Marshall was a common opponent and a week after they defeated Rice; they lost to Houston 63-28 so yeah… Anyways the last few years look like this:
2010/10/16 Houston 31 - Rice 34
2009/11/28 Houston 73 - Rice 14
2008/11/29 Houston 42 - Rice 56
2007/10/13 Houston 56 - Rice 48
2006/09/02 Houston 31 - Rice 30

I know the O/U is a wash with a combined: 7-7 O/U but you can’t argue the potential for a huge game from Houston. They haven’t scored under 35 all year and scored at least 48 or more in 5 of 7 games (including, 56 vs. ECU and 63 vs. Marshall in their last 2 outings). Rice has scored 20+ in every game but the opener against Texas, and though the Houston Defense is improved, I don’t see them keeping Rice out of the end-zone. For any less than 3 TD’s
My play for this game will be OVER (anything under 70)

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by DerekMadden

Splade,

you are getting real annoying hating on Ark in EVERY thread
It is people like you that make a lot of people lose money

box scores do not tell the whole story

38-17 Arkansas wins easily

Lol I dont say I hate the play, I just say it has the potential to be close... lol I was on them big last week and they burned me, Im sure you were as well (with that avatar). GL this weekend.

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:54 AM

DerekMadden's Motto, "Don't let the facts get in the way of your opinion"

DerekMadden · 10-27-11, 07:54 AM

I don't play my teams..

If you knew me, you'd know that

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:57 AM

can we be friends

Can you give your angle on the game?

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 07:59 AM

Originally posted by spladle08

I don't disagree with your pick.. I just disagree thats its anywhere near automatic

BTW I dont place wagers for anyone... they get all the info they can and decide for themselves

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 08:03 AM

Has Houston's defense become better than last years is the question? Houston has shut out 2 teams, 1 being East Carolina that puts up in the 30's including 20+ on South Carolina and almost beat VT 17-10.

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 08:11 AM

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rice's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Rice's last 8 games

lol. I think you have it in the bag, I just learned my lesson about overs, when there are blowouts. Yeah it was Fresno (lol) its a little early.

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 08:14 AM

Yeah I actually made a post explaining my lack of trust in ECU being a consistent team and reasons I would avoid the total in that game.

In the other 5 games they have allowed 23+, and to several not-so-impressive teams (38 to UCLA, 34 to Ltech...needed a miracle to win that one, 42 to Utep, and 28 to lowly Marshall)

BTW I dont doubt they cover or anything like that (even though I am staying away from that side)... I just think the over is safe.

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by KingFriday

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rice's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Rice's last 8 games

lol. I think you have it in the bag, I just learned my lesson about overs, when there are blowouts. Yeah it was Fresno (lol) its a little early.

good luck this weekend sir. If you come across any locks throw them my way

DerekMadden · 10-27-11, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by spladle08

can we be friends

Can you give your angle on the game?

My angle is simply this.

Last week,
Ark was coming off a bye week.. let's did a little deeper into this,
in the NFL this year teams are 3-9 coming off of a bye

Your immediate reaction is "this is college not NFL"
my question back is "if an NFL player can come off sluggish why can't a college athlete?"

Let's look at some of Arkansas's games

Troy
Arkansas was ahead 31-7 into the middle of the third quarter where troy came back and put some points on the board
at this time, this wasn't the same Troy team you are seeing now.
This Troy team also was BEATING Clemson at halftime, they were very confident and wanted to show that they are again a Sunbelt contender
It was apparent that Arkansas may have lost a little bit of focus, they even said in their press conferences
and got caught looking ahead to Alabama a little bit

Alabama
obviously one of the 2 best teams in the nation right now
Arkansas went in to halftime down only 10-7
by the end of the game Alabama showed their toughness and held ark to another 7 points as Bama rattled off another 28 pts
(Arkansas is right now is the only team to have put up more than 10 points on this Bama team)

Texas A&M
Obviously Arkansas was not looking to be hit in the mouth as bad as they did.
after failing to even make a first down on their first 2 drives they found themselves down 14-0
2 long td runs including one where the runningback flat out took the ball out of the qb's hand while he was trying to throw it
When Arkansas finally found that they could throw the ball over the middle Tyler Wilson threw for a school record 510 yds.
Arkansas' D held Texas A&M to just 3 points in the 2nd half

and finally

Ole' Miss
After Arkansas coming out of a bye week it was clear the hogs were a bit sluggish and rusty
Houston Nutt, the nation's BEST rah rah coach. If you look back, he usually wins one game/year that he shouldn't
The Rebels came out with guns blazing and an EXCELLENT game plan,
Arkansas was not ready for the edge runs that they saw, looking back over Miss previous games the runs on the edge with Brassel were not as prevelent as they were against Arkansas. They found a way to get him into the game and making plays
After the adjustments at halftime they finally put an end to that and rattled off 24 straight points again blanking a team in the third quarter and giving up only a TD late in the game because of good field position

I say all of this to say..
You better believe that the Hogs will come out blazing on Sat.
Especially if they win the toss, expect them to score in 4-5 plays and put a lot of pressure on Vandy
If Arkansas can keep them out of the game early, it will not even be close
If they start out slow again, you are right.. it would be a close game
but I would definitely still like Ark to win simply due to the team camaraderie and knowledge that they have been there before

once again I will say this.
I do not bet on Arkansas
I just like people to be well informed.

best of luck with your positions

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 08:23 AM

A little ARK v Vandy stats. Vandy is (1-3) in conference, and a home game in Vandy is like a bad high school football home game. Not really an adv.

It certainly doesn’t help the Commodores that Arkansas has three of the top 10 statistical receivers in the league in Wright (34 catches for 574 yards and six touchdowns),Adams (31 catches for 408 yards and a touchdown) and Hamilton (19 catches for 360 yards and two touchdowns).

Vandys QB has 2 TD and 43% comp. History repeats itself, Vandy will stink. As far as the spread, ARK has a great coach and always puts up big numbers. After the Ole Miss slump, they will have everyone in high gear and back on track. Vandy's chance comes in the first half, but after their CB's tire out, the WR core will light it up like xmas.

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 08:27 AM

Nice work sir. Does seem like you are very into Hog football, and you basically said what I said, they are slow starters but make adjustments and win games. I don't doubt they win but I think a slow start spell doom against this Vandy D.

Good Luck to you as well: CHEERS

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 08:51 AM

I can tell you to LOCK the South Carolina (-4)v Tenn spread , Marcus Lattimore the best RB arguably in the nation is out for the year. But he has a decent back up, great line. Defense will win this one, low total, but SC will be too much for Tenn's freshman first time QB.

UNDER SC(-4) PARLAY. LOCK

Connor Shaw is doing a good job, and Alshon Jeffrey is amazing, but since there is no running game which was the bread and butter, if they have decent CB the passing game will be under control. I would bet the spread, but the UNDER looks like a LOCK . SC's defense is stout. True freshman quarterback to get his first start in this league, for Tennessee Worley will debut against a South Carolina defense that leads the SEC with 24 forced turnovers and is third with 15 sacks. Tenn offense is struggling.

And we saw what happens when a freshman gets his first SEC start. Florida v LSU

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 09:53 AM

Derek you are totally right about Nutt always pulling one game. I was first informed by my buddy Charles last year from OlMs when we (AUB) were undeft going to the Grove.

BigdaddyQH · 10-27-11, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by KingFriday

Full time Auburn Student, addicted to SEC ball and currently 8-0 on SEC picks including the Auburn v Ark UNDER that everyone preached OVER. IDK, special I know but still lol.

Anyways, here's my action for week 9:

5$ Clemson (-4.5) v Ga Tech. This might be upset, but I watched Clemson take out a 14 pt deficit against my Tigers. People screaming upset, but triple option is flat and Clemson QB is on fire.

5$ Georgia (-3) v Florida. Georgia is hot right now, and Florida with the redshirt freshman QB is cold as ice. An SEC lock. Another generous spread, showing Florida love LSU (-14)> HAHA.

10$ Arkansas (-10.5) v Vandy. Really? This is almost automatic. OK so what Vandy's QB is Aaron Rodgers family, and they had a good run but that still can't help this team. Arkansas with Tyler Wilson has a potent offense.

10$ Stanford (-8) v USC. Yeah ok USC QB has put up impressive #s and a strong showing but Luck & Co have this spread covered no problem as long as they don't turn the ball over. LUCK: 72% comp, 20 TD, 3 INT, 2 Sacks OMG. Not to mention covered the spread 7-0 for the year.

15$ Wisconsin (-7.5) v Ohio St. After last weeks upset, they will release the Kraken on the buckeyes. OhSt is a disappointment this season and expect Wisconsin to finish in blow out fashion.

And if you have any confidence in a Auburn student that lives and dies by his team, TAKE THE AUBURN v OLE MISS UNDER 50 1/2. Our offense is struggling, this is def. not last year and Ole Miss is a mess.

Good Luck to everyone this weekend. BTW I took UCONN/UNDER last night, learning experience. Never bet Big East, and never bet baseball.

Let's disect this pick by pick:

Clemson -4.5 vs Ga. Tech. O.K, if you really have to play this game. Tech is 3-1 S/U vs Clemson in their last 4. Pass.

Georgia -3 vs Florida. UGA should win, but Richt loves to find ways to lose to Florida. His 2-8 record aginst Florida proves that. Pass.

Arkansas -10.5 at Vandy. Arkansas is in a look ahead situation on the road, with South Carolina at home on deck. Vandy is a surprising 3-1 at home, and 4-2 ATS. Pass.

Stanford -8 at USC. Let's see. Barkley vs Luck. USC lost by 2 points last year in Stanford. USC just upset Notre Dame as a 10 point dog on the road, and you want to take Stanford. Right. Pass.

Wisconsin -7.5 at Ohio State. Ohio State has a good defense, but no offense. Wisconsin has both. Still, this game is in Columbus . The 1/2 point may jump up and bite you. Pass.

I do not see one single solid wager here. You will win a few, and lose a few. It just depends on which ones you win. You give away a lot of 1/2 points on critical lines. That is not a good habit to get into.

KingFriday · 10-27-11, 10:53 AM

First Clemson is a toss up, but they are hot and the QB is starting to get Heisman discussion. The defense is tightening up. I watched them beat my tigers and I watched Ga Tech lose to Air Force. So this was bet willing to take.

Georgia is on a streak, this is not the Florida of past years. The coach has a hot head, QB is hurt/questionable and shotty when healthy. Richt is on the hot seat, and I think the Dogs know they have been beat and are ready to return the favor to the ICE COLD Florida.

SC is not good. Sure they beat bama LAST YEAR in Garcias game of his life. But they have way too many problems. Lattimore is out. Lost at home to Auburn, then go 14-12 @ miss state. They are not a threat to ARK.

Vandy has started hot in the past, but always drop to their level. They have not played competitive with SEC contenders, and ARK will bring the PAIN through the air. Vandy is successful against the spread b/c prior this year THEY BEAT NOBODY.

Notre Dame is a quality win to nobody but Lou Holtz, USC has been strong, but they dont have Luck, they have inferior defense, low pass rush. Luck will have ALL DAY to throw darts. Yet again, 7-0 ATS STANFORD. I dont see reggie on the field.

Ohio St at home almost lost to Toledo, got embarrassed by Miami, and can only put 7 on the Illni. Yet again, not the same team. Wisconsin will come out to make a statement after getting dreams crushed by M St. Rare opportunity to 45+ on the buckeyes in Columbus. lol.

The half points do annoy me, I thought i hit the lines early enough or maybe its just where I place bets that does that. Any tips from you Old Hands would be appreciated. I like to analyze your POV and gain extra wisdom.

FLORIDA, USC, OHST all teams that WERE but still get credit.

I goto one Auburn

. Ask me about how a team can loose its fire in a season. We are the youngest avg team in the FBS, but we have 3 top 10 recruiting classes.We lost our entire O line which killed our run game and loses any chance for a pass game b/c QB can do progressions. Kehil Frazier next year, then Zeke Pike after. If you havent seen Zeke, hes like the next Ben Rothlesburger 6'5 in HS lol.

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 10:55 AM

"I watched Ga Tech lose to Air Force"?

Miami and UVA... but Air Force would probably beat them at their own game... would be a good game

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 10:59 AM

I just looked and if you meant last year i guess I stand corrected...but they also lost to KU last year... diff teams

mp5070 · 10-27-11, 11:04 AM

Liking all of the, King....Clemson is my top play.....Haters needs to go away and start their own hating thread

mp5070 · 10-27-11, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by spladle08

I played that Boise game as well but I am under the impression you are talking about the Fresno game... And here was my breakdown Monday for the Houston Over [FONT="]Early Lean for Thursday [/FONT][FONT="]Thursday: Rice vs Houston: [/FONT][FONT="]OVER (anything under 70)[/FONT][FONT="] [/FONT][FONT="]Rice ([/FONT][FONT="]22.3 / 32.6) 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U Houston (49.3 / 23.4) 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U Obviously a person should lean Houston ATS but @ -27 this requires some research. Houston’s offense averages 606 yards, while Rice averages about half of that (326 yards) wow. Houston also has the better defense, allowing ~64 yards less per game. Houston should murder them, as you have the top offense vs one of the worst defenses, but in the past it has been relatively close and though I can’t see Rice winning, [/FONT][FONT="]they haven’t lost by 27+ all year, and they have played decent offenses @ Texas and Baylor, and vs Tulsa. Marshall was a common opponent and a week after they defeated Rice; they lost to Houston 63-28 so yeah… Anyways the last few years look like this: [/FONT][FONT="]2010/10/16 Houston 31 - Rice 34 2009/11/28 Houston 73 - Rice 14 2008/11/29 Houston 42 - Rice 56 2007/10/13 Houston 56 - Rice 48 2006/09/02 Houston 31 - Rice 30 [/FONT] I know the O/U is a wash with a combined: 7-7 O/U but you can’t argue the potential for a huge game from Houston. They haven’t scored under 35 all year and scored at least 48 or more in 5 of 7 games (including, 56 vs. ECU and 63 vs. Marshall in their last 2 outings). Rice has scored 20+ in every game but the opener against Texas, and though the Houston Defense is improved, I don’t see them keeping Rice out of the end-zone. For any less than 3 TD’s My play for this game will be OVER (anything under 70)

So are you OVER or UNDER or BOTH....71.5 where it stands..............

spladle08 · 10-27-11, 11:12 AM

I got it @ 70.5 and Im over. (I wrote this analysis before the lines came out....so I think Im pretty friggin accurate)

And I'm on Clemson as well, I think GT is getting way to much love. Ever since the NCST game, I have thought they were pretenders, I hope Clemson blows them out, but the confidence towards GT from the boards, scares me a bit.