Dear John Ryan ... Pitt/Uconn

[Madison]

John,

In your article on the game you suggest taking Pitt and the under 41. IMHO this type of bet, while certainly cashable, is absolutely at the top of my list of no no's. betting a sizeable favorite into a relatively low total is bettor's suicide. Nothing quite like the feeling of needing the favorite to score to cover one whilst blowing the other. BOL.

[suicidekings]

John,

In your article on the game you suggest taking Pitt and the under 41. IMHO this type of bet, while certainly cashable, is absolutely at the top of my list of no no's. betting a sizeable favorite into a relatively low total is bettor's suicide. Nothing quite like the feeling of needing the favorite to score to cover one whilst blowing the other. BOL.

Umm... come again? Look into that idea a little further before you start going against that correlation. Big spread & low total implies the dog is going to have a hard time scoring points, and it's got a solid base in stats.

[suicidekings]

Umm... come again? Look into that idea a little further before you start going against that correlation. Big spread & low total implies the dog is going to have a hard time scoring points, and it's got a solid base in stats.

Actually, one caveat I'll add is that good teams on big spreads with low totals are a favourable combination. Pitt doesn't really qualify, IMO.

[spladle08]

Actually, one caveat I'll add is that good teams on big spreads with low totals are a favourable combination. Pitt doesn't really qualify, IMO.

Wisdom ^^^^^^^

[Madison]

Umm... come again? Look into that idea a little further before you start going against that correlation. Big spread & low total implies the dog is going to have a hard time scoring points, and it's got a solid base in stats.

Been doing this a long time. If you want to avoid high blood pressure and hypertension. Even when\if you win it's almost never easy.

[suicidekings]

Been doing this a long time. If you want to avoid high blood pressure and hypertension. Even when\if you win it's almost never easy.

I find every total stressful. I don't really play many totals as I don't find them as intuitive as spreads.

[Madison]

I find every total stressful. I don't really play many totals as I don't find them as intuitive as spreads.

Check out this angle. I'm mostly a teaser player and number manipulator more than a handicapper. I began noticing that 2 of the 3 books I play with limit the number 12/13 totals you can play. I began thinking there's (gotta be careful of the grammar/spelling police ) a reason. Spread games in both directions and use some sound strategies i.e. good D vs good D etc. I've been having phenominal success in my tests and was 2-2 last week. As a for instance I had the Oak, Den, and Clev games all U about 54. I've just now found a local who will take all totals.

[Rambo]

Check out this angle. I'm mostly a teaser player and number manipulator more than a handicapper. I began noticing that 2 of the 3 books I play with limit the number 12/13 totals you can play. I began thinking there's (gotta be careful of the grammar/spelling police ) a reason. Spread games in both directions and use some sound strategies i.e. good D vs good D etc. I've been having phenominal success in my tests and was 2-2 last week. As a for instance I had the Oak, Den, and Clev games all U about 54. I've just now found a local who will take all totals.

What????

[upscope]

Check out this angle. I'm mostly a teaser player and number manipulator more than a handicapper. I began noticing that 2 of the 3 books I play with limit the number 12/13 totals you can play. I began thinking there's (gotta be careful of the grammar/spelling police ) a reason. Spread games in both directions and use some sound strategies i.e. good D vs good D etc. I've been having phenominal success in my tests and was 2-2 last week. As a for instance I had the Oak, Den, and Clev games all U about 54. I've just now found a local who will take all totals.

What??

[Betn247]

Home fave's just giving up too many points at this point in the season FIU last night( 4 to's still win but dont cover)........

[firehoyt]

A phenomenal 2-2?!?

[Madison]

What??

Books don't let you tease all totals for a reason. I believe there's an angle here. Try going both ways with the numbers for 12 or 13 point teasers. You'll see some games that stick out big time.

[Madison]

A phenomenal 2-2?!?

I'm not sure what remedial math courses you may have taken but maybe you could explain how one achieves a better win % than that.

[nomar122977]

over 41 book it

[hangtime]

John,

In your article on the game you suggest taking Pitt and the under 41. IMHO this type of bet, while certainly cashable, is absolutely at the top of my list of no no's. betting a sizeable favorite into a relatively low total is bettor's suicide. Nothing quite like the feeling of needing the favorite to score to cover one whilst blowing the other. BOL.

hope your right. im on pit-9.5/o41.5

[Madison]

hope your right. im on pit-9.5/o41.5

Hey hangtime. I have no opinion on the game. But IMHO if you work the numbers a bigish favorite combined with a smallish total is just a tough play over time. BOL.

[sandman0713]

Umm... come again? Look into that idea a little further before you start going against that correlation. Big spread & low total implies the dog is going to have a hard time scoring points, and it's got a solid base in stats.

agreed 100%. you can learn a lot about a game without ever looking at a single stat. linesmakers do the work for you, and then tell you much about the game just by the opening line and total.

[hangtime]

[quote=Madison;12066313]Hey hangtime. I have no opinion on the game. But IMHO if you work the numbers a bigish favorite combined with a smallish total is just a tough play over time. BOL.[/quot

i agree. there was no way i was gonna parlay pit-9.5 with the under 41. like you mentioned in you other post, those plays usually raise the blood pressure. everything has to go right with those plays. im more confident on pit-9.5 but decided to parlay with over 41 for more value since theres not much else to bet on. Yes, im a degenerate!

[Madison]

[quote=hangtime;12066447]

Hey hangtime. I have no opinion on the game. But IMHO if you work the numbers a bigish favorite combined with a smallish total is just a tough play over time. BOL.[/quot i agree. there was no way i was gonna parlay pit-9.5 with the under 41. like you mentioned in you other post, those plays usually raise the blood pressure. everything has to go right with those plays. im more confident on pit-9.5 but decided to parlay with over 41 for more value since theres not much else to bet on. Yes, im a degenerate!

Good luck. I'm a grinder however whatever your temperment there are certain angles that over time prove unprofitable or at best uncomfortable. BOL tonight!