A gem of a game to play? ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON

[Urbanwildlife]

Washington -6.5 is at home against Arizona. After doing my home work, this has become my favorite play of the week, as I see no fricking way possible that Arizona can stop Washington's offense lead by a damn good quarterback in Keith Price.

Yes, last week Washington took a licking by Stanford, and Arizona destroyed UCLA. but Washington is not UCLA, and Arizona is not Stanford. After doing my due diligence, I see nothing but a blow out by Washington, unless they are still mentally fcuked by the beating from Stanford.

[spladle08]

I see Zona putting up some points, but you are right, Washington should top 40... Arizona's defense isn't up to the challenge, and in a shoot-out type football game, I can see Washington's D getting a few more stops. I am actually going to look at this game now. Thanks for calling it to our attention.

[House]

Zona,has a decent game vs a horrible,winless UCLA ...and now they are +12 really vs **......what was the spread for Stanford / Wash ?..........I'm all over WASHINTON here !!!!

[Pickem2win]

Zona,has a decent game vs a horrible,winless UCLA ...and now they are +12 really vs **......what was the spread for Stanford / Wash ?..........I'm all over WASHINTON here !!!!

The spread was Washington +20.

I am a season ticket holder for Washingtion and have followed the team closely for over 20 years. They have a great offense and an average defense. Undefeated at home this year and I have no reason to think they wont cover -6.5 this weekend. Normally I dont bet Washington games because I am emotionally tied to the team. However, I KNOW they are going to win this one. Arizona's two wins: they have beaten some fcs team and a very weak UCLA team. They just fired their coach because of how often they are getting blown out in games.
Washington on the other hand has a very talented offense and an offense minded coach who does all the play calling. If you look at the Nebraska loss in which they beat the spread, the following week they went on the road to play Utah and destroyed them 31-14--Washington was a 10 pt underdog in that game! (the last utah td was scored with 7 seconds left on the clock). This team really responded! Furthermore they are 9-2 in their last 11 games with only 2 losses to Nebraska and Stanford (both of those losses were on the road and both Nebraska and Stanford were ranked in the top 10)--they beat unranked teams especially in their home stadium.

Washington -6.5 is my bet and I will cash it Saturday night.

[spladle08]

Nice lil write up Pick em... I think I am going to jump on this.. I need about 10 minutes more worth of looking at numbers and Im on board.

[spladle08]

Washington vs Arizona: Arizona +6.5 …
Before looking at any numbers, Im leaning Washington, despite my thinking that Arizona should turn it around soon with all that talent.

PF/PA is similar. Washington 34/33, Arizona 30/33.
Washington has the better record straight up and ATS winning all but 2 of their games in both categories (non-covers were E. Washington, and Stanford) and their marquee win so far comes in a 40-32 win over Hawaii at home, or a 31-14 beating of Utah on the road (whichever you feel like giving more weight).
At home this year they have beaten Hawaii by 8, California by 8, Colorado by 28, and E. Washington by 3…. Im starting to talk myself out of this.

Arizona on the other hand has a terrible ATS record and SU record. They lost to Okie St, Stanford, Oregon, USC, and then to a terrible Oregon State team (which I want to attribute to coming out of a brutal stretch of games). They took a week off after that game, and came back to trounce UCLA. Hmmm there are no common opponents but we can look at strengths and weaknesses.

Arizona has a pretty weak run game and depends heavily on Foles and the passing game (Criner*) to get something going. They will face a Washington team who isn’t particularly strong in either rush or pass defense, giving up 146 on the ground and 284 through the air.
*I already see something which I am going to have to shine light on. Washington is giving up 284 through the air, while Arizona is giving up 290, and having faced nothing but prolific passing teams (true Oregon is heavy on the rush but those screen passes add up) anyways without knowing a lot of the defensive players for either team, Im leaning toward Arizona having a significantly better pass-D than Washington and they are going to need a strong secondary effort to contain Foles… hmmm*
Washingtons offense however has been very strong. They have great balance with Polk and Price and are facing a D that gives up 173 yards per game on the ground and 290 through the air.

Arizona won last year @ home 44-14 with Washington winning the previous year @ home 36-33
11 of the last 15 games in this series have gone OVER

My decision:I think this game will hinge largely on Washington'd secondary’s ability to limit the production by Foles. If they can keep Arizona from scoring I think Polk will have some ground success and this could open up the passing game for Price. I’m concerned by the fact that they have given up quite a few points to some “not so great” offenses. Holding only Utah to less than 20 (and they lost their starting QB at half) I don’t like either team in this game actually, but if I had to bet I would lean Arizona +6.5, I just think their passing game will do enough to give them a shot at winning this game, I also feel that the bookmakers are playing the public off the Stanford game. People saw a scrappy, athletic team and they have seen Arizona get trounced by all the big dogs and they think “Washington, at home, they were kind of-competitive against Stanford, they should roll… “ … just my 2 cents (I have a terrible NCAAF record over the past week so don’t put too much weight in it).

**The total is @ 70.5 and seems pretty accurate, I can’t see a play on it**

[suicidekings]

Arizona is 6th in passing offense while Washington's primary weakness is their pass defense, which ranks 110th in the FBS. Foles has a quick release a deep talented receiver squad, so you really have to beat him on coverage, and that seems unlikely. Arizona is not Stanford, but in terms of their ability to move the ball in the air, they're not that far off. Washington's passing game isn't bad either and Arizona's defense has been terrible this year, but Arizona's numbers are extremely skewed right now due to their absolutely brutal first half schedule (5th toughest in FBS, including OK State/Oregon/Stanford in consecutive weeks), so I would be shocked if Arizona doesn't look WAY better from here on out than their numbers would indicate.

Also, 3 of Washington's 5 wins don't really impress me. The California and Utah games were good wins against teams that are more on Washington's level, but escaping with a 3 point win vs Eastern Washington and beating Colorado and Hawaii, who are both inferior teams, is not particularly impressive.

I think this would be a good spot to put a small play on the Arizona ML, honestly, but I would not lay points on UW here.

[spladle08]

correct

[suicidekings]

just my 2 cents (I have a terrible NCAAF record over the past week so don't put too much weight in it).

Seems like you have a pretty good read on this game. A lot of good cappers have been getting raped in the last 2-3 weeks.

[spladle08]

Lets hope it turns around

[Madison]

Weather

Has Zona played in the expected weather conditions yet? Warm weather team, Night game in NW circa 40 degress. Doesn't compute as favorable to Zona to me.

[Madison]

Arizona is 6th in passing offense while Washington's primary weakness is their pass defense, which ranks 110th in the FBS. Foles has a quick release a deep talented receiver squad, so you really have to beat him on coverage, and that seems unlikely. Arizona is not Stanford, but in terms of their ability to move the ball in the air, they're not that far off. Washington's passing game isn't bad either and Arizona's defense has been terrible this year, but Arizona's numbers are extremely skewed right now due to their absolutely brutal first half schedule (5th toughest in FBS, including OK State/Oregon/Stanford in consecutive weeks), so I would be shocked if Arizona doesn't look WAY better from here on out than their numbers would indicate. Also, 3 of Washington's 5 wins don't really impress me. The California and Utah games were good wins against teams that are more on Washington's level, but escaping with a 3 point win vs Eastern Washington and beating Colorado and Hawaii, who are both inferior teams, is not particularly impressive. I think this would be a good spot to put a small play on the Arizona ML, honestly, but I would not lay points on UW here.

Be wary of warm weather passing teams in cold weather at night.

[Pickem2win]

Also, 3 of Washington's 5 wins don't really impress me. The California and Utah games were good wins against teams that are more on Washington's level, but escaping with a 3 point win vs Eastern Washington and beating Colorado and Hawaii, who are both inferior teams, is not particularly impressive.

I think this would be a good spot to put a small play on the Arizona ML, honestly, but I would not lay points on UW here.

Eastern was the first game of the year and they were tentative. Hawaii was the second game of the year and they played much better and covered the spread. The Colorado game was 10 days ago and they pounded them by close to 30 pts and over 600 yards of offense.

Again, I normally dont bet Washington games but this one will be a W for Washington (yes, it will be high scoring).

[suicidekings]

Eastern was the first game of the year and they were tentative. Hawaii was the second game of the year and they played much better and covered the spread. The Colorado game was 10 days ago and they pounded them by close to 30 pts and over 600 yards of offense.

Again, I normally dont bet Washington games but this one will be a W for Washington (yes, it will be high scoring).

To each his own. I'm not strongly backing Arizona here. Just not sold on betting against them when they have the offensive firepower to win and several strong motivating factors to ensure they come to play.

[suicidekings]

Be wary of warm weather passing teams in cold weather at night.

Valid point. I just read a great little article at Football Outsiders about it, and the trend does strongly favour the colder climate team (at least in the NFL, but I would assume the effects are similar in college). About 90% of the Arizona roster is from California/Arizona/Texas. It doesn't sell me on the validity of the UW play, but I probably won't touch AZ.

[M.W.]

It's amazing how skewed public perception is sometimes. Washington is way overated.

[Urbanwildlife]

Thank you for all the posts, but I am going to enjoy my stroll to the pay window in a large way, thanks to the Huskies from Washington!

[spladle08]

good luck Urban... Hope you do cash

[NYSportsGuy210]

I see this game as either playing the OVER or no play at all.

[Urbanwildlife]

good luck Urban... Hope you do cash

Thank you, but there is no hope, "I will" take that sweet stroll to the pay window! It is called positive mental thinking!. Unfortunately it did not work for me on Monday night on the Baltimore Ravens, where I lost many many many dimes. The good thing is I have an opportunity to make it back.