Season Record 8-7-0 +14.8u
Hey SBR Forums! I took a week off from my write ups and I am really glad I did. I took some risks last week I probably wouldn't have otherwise. I have to give a big thanks to a buddy of mine that challenged me to put my money where my mouth was after drinks and talking how I thought Texas Tech had a chance. I admit it wasn't my best decision, but it is definitely my best not-good decision I've ever made. Bankroll looked like it was going to top my personal high after UAB, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State when I lost a good deal on Wisconsin and Virginia. Still one bad week, one good week and I'm back in the saddle again! You'll also notice a change in my layout, just trying something different if it's more confusing than helpful I'll go back to paragraph form. Alright, without further feel good stories, let's move on to:
BYU @ TCU
BYU is rolling right now on a 5 game winning streak in a 6-2 season. This win streak has come against Idaho State, Oregon State, San Jose State, Utah State and UCF; teams under-performing this season. Dropping Idaho State out of the equation, each team has been one-dimensional in its offense against BYU, scoring double digits in the run game with the exception of Utah State who only passed for 122 yards. The only times BYU has faced a dual-threat offense was in a slaughter against Utah that ended up 54-10.
TCU has performed under the radar most of this year losing to SMU in overtime and against Baylor in week 1 50-48. BYU has been a different story for TCU over their last three meetings where TCU has outscored the Cougars by an average of 28 points and held BYU to 7 points or less and holding them to an average of 247.3 yards per game. Additionally over this same span, TCU has been the benefactor of 8 turnovers while only giving up 1.
Stats Clash
Personal Notes
It's hard to get a good feel for Riley Nelson (BYU QB jr.) as he has only started for the last 4 games. Earlier in the season it was Jake Heaps (BYU QB so.) under center, but he seems to have fallen out of favor after the Utah State game. If he is the backup at this point his stats from earlier in the year are abysmal (55% completions, rating of 98.6, 3 TDs and 6 INTs).
An interesting stat for this one (not sure how much weight I give it) if a fumble occurs whether on offense or defense TCU has a 61.9% recovery rate compared to BYU's 40.9%.
TCU has a devastating offense that can gain large chunks of ground in a variety of ways and has been the model of consistency. Casey Pachall (TCU QB so.) has thrown for at least 1 touchdown in every game this year and Matthew Tucker (TCU RB jr.) is averaging a rushing touchdown per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
TCU has not been held under 400 yards yet this season.
My Picks
TCU -13 @ 2u
I will likely be taking the TCU TT Over as well
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!
Hey SBR Forums! I took a week off from my write ups and I am really glad I did. I took some risks last week I probably wouldn't have otherwise. I have to give a big thanks to a buddy of mine that challenged me to put my money where my mouth was after drinks and talking how I thought Texas Tech had a chance. I admit it wasn't my best decision, but it is definitely my best not-good decision I've ever made. Bankroll looked like it was going to top my personal high after UAB, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State when I lost a good deal on Wisconsin and Virginia. Still one bad week, one good week and I'm back in the saddle again! You'll also notice a change in my layout, just trying something different if it's more confusing than helpful I'll go back to paragraph form. Alright, without further feel good stories, let's move on to:
BYU @ TCU
BYU is rolling right now on a 5 game winning streak in a 6-2 season. This win streak has come against Idaho State, Oregon State, San Jose State, Utah State and UCF; teams under-performing this season. Dropping Idaho State out of the equation, each team has been one-dimensional in its offense against BYU, scoring double digits in the run game with the exception of Utah State who only passed for 122 yards. The only times BYU has faced a dual-threat offense was in a slaughter against Utah that ended up 54-10.
TCU has performed under the radar most of this year losing to SMU in overtime and against Baylor in week 1 50-48. BYU has been a different story for TCU over their last three meetings where TCU has outscored the Cougars by an average of 28 points and held BYU to 7 points or less and holding them to an average of 247.3 yards per game. Additionally over this same span, TCU has been the benefactor of 8 turnovers while only giving up 1.
Stats Clash
- Team--------------------------------BYU---------TCU
- -
- Yards per Play------------------------5.0----------6.2
- -
- Points per Play-----------------------0.309-------0.573
- -
- 3rd Down Conversion-----------------48.0%-------56.9%
- -
- Starting QB Completion---------------61.8%-------69.7%
- -
- Passer Rating------------------------174.5--------165.2
- -
- TD to INT ratio----------------------11:3----------17:4
- -
- Passing Yards per game--------------198.8---------223.7
- -
- Rushing Yards per game--------------158.5---------217.4
- -
- Rushing Yards per Attempt-----------4.37----------5.3
- -
- Rushing Yards Allowed per Attempt---3.96----------3.6
- -
- Sacks per Game----------------------0.9-----------2.0
- -
- Opponent Red Zone TDs--------------70.8%--------61.9%
- -
- Points per Game----------------------26.8----------43.6
- -
- Points Against per Game--------------21.5----------21.9
Personal Notes
It's hard to get a good feel for Riley Nelson (BYU QB jr.) as he has only started for the last 4 games. Earlier in the season it was Jake Heaps (BYU QB so.) under center, but he seems to have fallen out of favor after the Utah State game. If he is the backup at this point his stats from earlier in the year are abysmal (55% completions, rating of 98.6, 3 TDs and 6 INTs).
An interesting stat for this one (not sure how much weight I give it) if a fumble occurs whether on offense or defense TCU has a 61.9% recovery rate compared to BYU's 40.9%.
TCU has a devastating offense that can gain large chunks of ground in a variety of ways and has been the model of consistency. Casey Pachall (TCU QB so.) has thrown for at least 1 touchdown in every game this year and Matthew Tucker (TCU RB jr.) is averaging a rushing touchdown per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
TCU has not been held under 400 yards yet this season.
My Picks
TCU -13 @ 2u
I will likely be taking the TCU TT Over as well
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!
Of course there is no such thing as a locked pick. Why do you even bother talking?
