Just another thread with some random guy's picks.

Demonata · 10-17-11, 10:35 PM

Love it man. Good picks and good luck. My best bet is the -3 wake forest.

numismatist · 10-17-11, 10:36 PM

Good luck to you! Really like Arky and the Deacons this week too. Still trying to figure out that WF line against Duke-doesn't make sense.

Demonata · 10-17-11, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by numismatist

Good luck to you! Really like Arky and the Deacons this week too. Still trying to figure out that WF line against Duke-doesn't make sense.

Ya it really doesn't because Wake is way better than duke.

LSUtiger · 10-17-11, 10:44 PM

Agree, the Wake line is confusing the hell out of me. I'm just gonna watch it closely and see if there's any news or line movement during the week

Urbanwildlife · 10-17-11, 10:47 PM

Best of luck to you LSUtiger! Continue to take the leisurely stroll to the pay window!

I like your pics on Arkansas and Wake Forest. You might also want to take the time to look at Kansas State, who is at Kansas.

LSUtiger · 10-17-11, 10:53 PM

Yes, gotta love that SEC offense haha...I've been looking at that game closely and am still doing some analysis on it. Thanks Urban

LSUtiger · 10-18-11, 01:05 AM

Add: 1 Unit Max:
6 team, ML Parlay: Wake Forest; Clemson; Oklahoma State; Kansas State; Notre Dame; Wisconsin (+510)

I believe all of these teams should win, but there's typically one bad egg in the bunch so no guarantees. If you have a few extra bucks in your roll, play it.

Add: K-state -11

I really like this play. Oklahoma would have smoked Kansas last weekend if broyles didn't fumble on the goal line and if they would have converted 1 of those FG's into a TD. It could have easily been a 35+ point victory. Kansas State has been playing solid, and I see them continuing to chug along. This should be a 41-24 type of game.

Bentley · 10-18-11, 12:53 PM

im lovin the thread seen it off spadles thread .. thanks for your time we need more people like you this is how i've been doing my picks

sweethook · 10-18-11, 01:48 PM

looks good tiger , fade lsu saturday , gl man

LSUtiger · 10-18-11, 02:16 PM

@Bentley- Thanks, I really appreciate it. I don't use a fancy system, just call them as I see them. I found that if you make simple plays based on personal knowledge, gut feeling, and past match-ups, then you are likely to succeed. My intentions in this thread are to provide information and to consolidate everyone's views and opinions to benefit all of us. Good luck!

@Sweethook- Thanks for the reinforcement. And don't worry, no way I'm touching LSU this week. I'm not the type of person who will argue that my team will cover every week. I'm a total realist and I bet with my brain, not my heart. That being said, I'm 5-0 on LSU this year (Oregon, Miss. St, WVU, Florida, Tennessee) simply because the gift spreads Vegas provided us with. It was easy to figure out these opposing teams wouldn't be able to put up as many points as usual against LSU's D. But I digress, GL to you hook!

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 12:32 AM

Wisconsin -8 @ Michigan State
Initially, when this line came out I immediately went to place my largest bet of the year. Luckily, I stopped myself before I did. The more I compare and think about these two teams, the less I like Wisconsin. Wisconsin only had one blemish on their schedule last year when regular season concluded. You can see where I'm getting at...Wisconsin was undefeated going into that game, and it was also in Madison. MSU handily beat them by 10 points despite 3 turnovers, compared to Wisconsin's 0. Now, Wisconsin is definitely better this year and with their talent and balanced attack they should be able to win this game. But you can count on MSU to show up for this game and do everything they can to take Wisconsin down. This a prime time conference game in MSU's back yard.

Now for the numbers. Wisconsin has played 5 FBS schools so far, which include powerhouses UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, Indiana, as well as a mysterious Nebraska team. These five teams give up an average of 41.5, 31.8, 32.9, 31.7, 27.2 points respectively. That is an average of 33 pts allowed per game. Now, Wisconsin has averaged 48.4 points against these five teams. They may appear as an offensive steam engine, but I think every single one of the current top 10 teams would have put up similar numbers if they played those teams.

Take 48.4/33 and you get 1.46...1.46 x MSU's average allowed will give you the number of points Wisconsin "should" score. Michigan State is allowing just 11.7 points/game thus far, which is 17 less points than any other team Wisconsin has faced this season. Based on this season, 11.7 (MSU average allowed) x 1.46 (Wisconsin's offensive multiple) you end up with a Wisconsin point projection of 17. Now, Wisconsin's defense is allowing an average of 9.64 to FBS opponents so far. Based on this, 9.64 x 1.17 (MSU's off. multiple) you end up with 12. Based on these projections, Saturday's game will be a tight, low scoring defensive battle. In no way do I think it will end up 17-12, I just think it will be tighter than most people think. Now I'll compare last year's projections and the actual score using the same method.

2010:
Wisconsin Score Projection: 22.3 (MSU avg. pt/s allowed) x 1.53 (Wisc. offense multiple) = 34
Michigan St. Score Project.: 22 (Wisc avg pt/s allowed) x 1.21 (MSU offense multiple) = 26.6
Actual Score MSU 34 Wisc 24-As you can see, the total was only off by 2.5 pts, and MSU dominated Wisconsin only allowing 24 points, 10 of which were scored off turnovers.

Bottom Line
I believe the following factors will have the most impact and decide the game. If MSU wins the turnover battle or even keeps it even, Wisconsin will not score many points. Wisconsin has naturally gotten used to playing against horrible defenses, and will most likely need some time adjust. On the other side, MSU thrives off their defense and has shown in the past they know how to slow down Wisconsin's offense. Wisconsin is averaging 280 passing and 243 rushing per game (523), while MSU is allowing 109/64 (173). My Projection: 27-17

Under 48 Good Luck Everyone!

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 12:47 AM

Week 8 Updated (bold denotes placed bet)

Straight
4* K-state -11
4* Arkansas -17
3* Wake Forest -3
2* Wisconsin/MSU Under 48
2* Texas Tech +28.5

Parlay/Teaser
2* Two team, 6 pt TW teaser: Wisconsin -2.5; Notre Dame -3 (-105)
2* Four team, 8.5 pt TR teaser: Arkansas -7; Alabama -20.5; Texas A&M -12.5, Kansas State -2.5 (+168)
1.5* Two-Team Parlay: Wake -3, Penn St ML. (+206)
1* Six team, ML Parlay: Wake Forest; Clemson; Oklahoma State; Kansas State; Notre Dame; Wisconsin (+510)
Big 12 special: 1.5* Three Team, 6.5 TW Teaser: Oklahoma State pk; Texas A&M -14; Kansas State -4.5 (+157)

Big play of the week:
5* Two-team 7 pt, TW teaser: Stanford -14, West Virginia -7 (-128)

mp5070 · 10-19-11, 07:54 AM

Good Luck

Hotlanta Steam · 10-19-11, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by LSUtiger

Wisconsin -8 @ Michigan State
Initially, when this line came out I immediately went to place my largest bet of the year. Luckily, I stopped myself before I did. The more I compare and think about these two teams, the less I like Wisconsin. Wisconsin only had one blemish on their schedule last year when regular season concluded. You can see where I'm getting at...Wisconsin was undefeated going into that game, and it was also in Madison. MSU handily beat them by 10 points despite 3 turnovers, compared to Wisconsin's 0. Now, Wisconsin is definitely better this year and with their talent and balanced attack they should be able to win this game. But you can count on MSU to show up for this game and do everything they can to take Wisconsin down. This a prime time conference game in MSU's back yard.

Now for the numbers. Wisconsin has played 5 FBS schools so far, which include powerhouses UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, Indiana, as well as a mysterious Nebraska team. These five teams give up an average of 41.5, 31.8, 32.9, 31.7, 27.2 points respectively. That is an average of 33 pts allowed per game. Now, Wisconsin has averaged 48.4 points against these five teams. They may appear as an offensive steam engine, but I think every single one of the current top 10 teams would have put up similar numbers if they played those teams.

Take 48.4/33 and you get 1.46...1.46 x MSU's average allowed will give you the number of points Wisconsin "should" score. Michigan State is allowing just 11.7 points/game thus far, which is 17 less points than any other team Wisconsin has faced this season. Based on this season, 11.7 (MSU average allowed) x 1.46 (Wisconsin's offensive multiple) you end up with a Wisconsin point projection of 17. Now, Wisconsin's defense is allowing an average of 9.64 to FBS opponents so far. Based on this, 9.64 x 1.17 (MSU's off. multiple) you end up with 12. Based on these projections, Saturday's game will be a tight, low scoring defensive battle. In no way do I think it will end up 17-12, I just think it will be tighter than most people think. Now I'll compare last year's projections and the actual score using the same method.

2010:
Wisconsin Score Projection: 22.3 (MSU avg. pt/s allowed) x 1.53 (Wisc. offense multiple) = 34
Michigan St. Score Project.: 22 (Wisc avg pt/s allowed) x 1.21 (MSU offense multiple) = 26.6
Actual Score MSU 34 Wisc 24-As you can see, the total was only off by 2.5 pts, and MSU dominated Wisconsin only allowing 24 points, 10 of which were scored off turnovers.

Bottom Line
I believe the following factors will have the most impact and decide the game. If MSU wins the turnover battle or even keeps it even, Wisconsin will not score many points. Wisconsin has naturally gotten used to playing against horrible defenses, and will most likely need some time adjust. On the other side, MSU thrives off their defense and has shown in the past they know how to slow down Wisconsin's offense. Wisconsin is averaging 280 passing and 243 rushing per game (523), while MSU is allowing 109/64 (173). My Projection: Wisconsin wins 23-20

Michigan State +8, Under 48 Good Luck Everyone!

Thanks for the write-up.....

One thing I would consider is removing the Wisconsin game all together from their opponents scoring stats as it skews it...

By doing this it leads me to believe that Wisconsin has a much better defense than meets the eye... below is their past opponents PPG without the Wisconsin game includede... It shows that they successfully shut down some decent offenses...

UNLV 19.0 PPG (not including the 17 scored against Wiscy)
Oregon State 33.00 PPG (not including the 0 they scored on Wiscy)
Northern Illinois 45.00 PPG (not including the 7 they scored on Wiscy)
South Dakota 25.83 PPG (not including the 10 they scored on Wiscy)
Nebraska 41.00 PPG (not including the 17 they scored on Wiscy)
Indiana 23.33 PPG (not including the 7 they scored on Wiscy)

Notice that every team had far below their normal output against the Badgers save UNLV... I just personally think Wisconsin wins this game by 2TDs or more...

Seaton420 · 10-19-11, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by LSUtiger

Week 8 Updated (bold denotes placed bet)

Straight
4* K-state -11
4* Arkansas -17
3* Wake Forest -3
2* Michigan State +8.5, Under 48
2* Texas Tech +28.5

Parlay/Teaser
2* Two team, 6 pt TW teaser: Wisconsin -2.5; Notre Dame -3 (-105)
2* Three team, 8 pt TW teaser: Arkansas -9; Alabama -21; Texas A&M -12.5 (+115)
1.5* Two-Team Parlay: Wake -3, Penn St ML. (+206)
1* Six team, ML Parlay: Wake Forest; Clemson; Oklahoma State; Kansas State; Notre Dame; Wisconsin (+510)

Im with you on every one of your picks except wisconsin , i think they are for real and M.State has shown they can get beat down. Just cause they slowed Michigan i dont think they can slow Wisconsin and that huge line and great QB.

Wisconson 34

M.State 24

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 10:08 AM

Thanks for the feedback guys. Even after all the analysis I have done, I keep coming up with different outcomes. There are simply too many unknowns. I will most likely drop the side all together, and place 2* on the the under. I think both offenses will be slowed down, which should result in a low number. Good luck to all of you

cant call it · 10-19-11, 12:11 PM

How do you feel about your tigers versus the auburn tigers

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 01:00 PM

Big Play of the Week:

Over the past 4 weeks, I have placed my largest bet on a 2-team teaser. I'm 4-0 (knock on wood) so far and will keep playing them until I lose. Last week it was Stanford -14 and LSU -8.5. Stanford rolled by 30, and LSU by 31. I'm keeping Stanford in the teaser this week since they continue to dominate everyone they play. They hold the nation's longest active win streak with 14, and they also embarrassed Washington 41-0 last year in Seattle. Washington is putting up a decent amount of points per game (37). But out of the six teams faced so far, every one of them has been ranked 67 or below in scoring defense. Don't expect them to put up their average on Stanford, who is currently #5 in scoring defense. Frankly, I will keep riding this money train until it crashes.

My second pick will most likely be West Virginia, but it may change by Friday as I evaluate the game more. WV has put up 34+ in 5 of 6 games this season. LSU was the only team that slowed them down, but they still put up a respectable 21 on the tigers which is 10 more points than every one of LSU's other opponents besides Oregon. Below are average points and yards for, and against this season. (LSU and Norfolk are counted as outliers in points category)

..............Pts/game.........Allowed.......... Yards........... Allowed Yards
Syracuse: 26.................27................333 ..............397
West Virg. 42.5..............17.5...............506 .............300

WV also puts up 380.5 yards (#4) through the air each game on average, while Syracuse is giving up 293 (#112). Syracuse does have a good rush defense though, ranking #23 and allowing 103 yds/game. The good news is that WV is ranked 108th in rushing attempts per game.

Bottom Line
Syracuse will put up some points over the course of the game, but West Virginia will beat them through the air all night long. I expect West Virginia to score between 40-50 points, and Syracuse between 20-25 which should easily a teased spread, and most likely the actual spread.

Add: 5* Two-team 7 pt, TW teaser: Stanford -14, West Virginia -7 (-128)

spladle08 · 10-19-11, 01:30 PM

Looks like you guys are getting work done. I love it. Good luck everyone.
I cant buy into the idea that MSU keeps it close. Wisconsin is just too balanced and MSU just doesn't have the offense to keep up.
. "Wisconsin only had one blemish on their schedule last year when regular season concluded. You can see where I'm getting at...Wisconsin was undefeated going into that game, and it was also in Madison. MSU handily beat them by 10 points.."
The game was actually at MSU (if nobody has referenced that).
Michigan State also beat ND by a field goal in OT last year (not a good precursor to the 31-13 pounding the Irish gave them this year), Im not saying its the exact same situation, but Wisconsin isnt the same team either. Im sure they remember that stumble a year ago, and with Wilson under center its hard to argue against them. They will reach the 30's

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 03:18 PM

spladle08

Didn't realize the game was at E. Landing last year, thanks for letting us know. In one of the earlier posts in this thread I noted that I am not planning to bet a side in the game since I keep envisioning different outcomes and there are too many unknowns. I know Wisconsin is better this year than last, but how much better? It's a tough question, that to me, that doesn't have a clear answer right now. For that that reason I may leave it be. Statistics and history are opposite of my gut feeling right now, but maybe it will be more clear before Saturday. Maybe I should go along with you on this one due to your firm belief in Wisconsin instead. I won't post my finalized card until Friday. Thanks for your input. Good Luck to you this weekend

NDnation · 10-19-11, 03:44 PM

Thank you for the great write ups. I think im going to follow you on the stanford/west v teaser, I love it as well.

spladle08 · 10-19-11, 05:48 PM

I'm not 100% sold but ~85%... I respect the msu d and they will pose a big challenge but the Wisconsin d is also pretty amazing.... and the offense has just been a machine, just more weapons than msu and I'm thinking this will be the difference .... tough to type and drive down dirt roads but I think staying away is best as it could have multiple endings but from a percentage standpoint I see Wisconsin winning by double digits more than much more than half the time... hope that made sense.... goodluck man

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 08:04 PM

How do you feel about your tigers versus the auburn tigers

I'm not going to go into much detail here, but I'll let you know what I'm thinking. Since LSU and Auburn both run the ball a lot, I doubt there will be many points put on the board. I think this game will be similar to Miss. St vs. LSU last month. Don't get me wrong, LSU will win this game and by a comfortable margin. But I'm not going to advise anyone on here to lay down their money on LSU unless I'm certain they will cover. It isn't unlikely that they blow auburn out, I'm just not sure enough to make or advise the play. If you want some action on the game, I advise you to consider Auburn Team Total Under. Teasing LSU to -14 or less should also be a safe play. I see a 24-10 type of game. Good Luck

jds07v · 10-19-11, 09:03 PM

I dont want to rain on your parade, but i think last year's stats are somewhat irrelevant. Mainly because wilson >>>> scott tolzien. Not even close.

I'm a fsu student and fan, and watched russell wilson tear shit up in person while he was at nc state. Hes more mobile than you think he is. Adds another dimension to his game.

cant call it · 10-19-11, 09:04 PM

Any idea what the auburn team total is at right now?

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 09:27 PM

JDS07v

I agree with you 100%...I have backed off the side, and will be playing the under as of now, but even that may change by Saturday. Good Luck

Can't Call it

Auburn TT should be 13-14 when released.

rtiet1 · 10-19-11, 09:39 PM

i really like KSU, everybody is hating on them. I know this may seem far fetch to some, but KSU offense is reminiscent of the ole Tim Tebow Florida Gators. KSU offense always controls the tempo, and style commits very little turnovers.

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 09:46 PM

i really like KSU, everybody is hating on them. I know this may seem far fetch to some, but KSU offense is reminiscent of the ole Tim Tebow Florida Gators. KSU offense always controls the tempo, and style commits very little turnovers.

Agree 100%...KSU may not be an elite team, but they are fundamentally sound and should be able to win this game convincingly.

miketp223 · 10-19-11, 10:26 PM

Been betting on KSU all season as they continued to be the underdog. After I saw them beat my favorite team the Canes I realized they were pretty good. They can run the ball for sure. Klein is a beast at QB with the zone reads, makes good decisions. Not to mention their D is solid, they should be able to shut down Kansas' run O. Oklahoma had the worst playcalling against Kansas and they did it in the redzone, kept getting FGS. Kansas St is very solid. DD win.

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 11:14 PM

Oklahoma had the worst playcalling against Kansas and they did it in the redzone, kept getting FGS.

Glad someone else noticed this, Oklahoma had 4 field goals, and each of them were with the redzone. The Score would have been 62-17 if 2 of the 4 FG's were TD's and broyles didn't fumble the ball on the 1 yard line.

LSUtiger · 10-20-11, 01:39 AM

Add:
2* SEC Special: 5 pt TW teaser: Arkansas -10; Alabama -24; LSU -16 (+195)

Been contemplating combining these teams all week, and the lines are just too perfect right now to not strike. Let's face it, these top 10 teams should take care of business. I'll most likely go more in depth tomorrow, but these are the key reasons.

1) Bama- May sound extremely corny, but LSU beat Tennessee by 31 last week on the road. Bama will make sure they surpass that margin at home. Also, Tennessee is just plain bad.

2) Arkansas-Coming off a bye and firing on all cylinders of late. To me, there is absolutely no way Ole Miss stays within 10.

3)LSU- Last, my beloved tigers. LSU's offense will not be greatly affected by the loss of Ware in Saturdays game. To be completely honest, I believe Ford and Blue splitting time will increase the likeliness of an LSU rout. They create a great 1,2 punch by combining speed and power. You can also bank on the two young RB's to try and put on a show to prove their talent to the nation. The loss of Simon and Mathieu will hurt LSU, but won't have a huge impact on this weekend because Auburn's game is to run the ball. LSU players have got to be frustrated because of all the off field issues, it should be fun to watch them take it out on Auburn this weekend . GL All

LSUtiger · 10-20-11, 07:43 PM

Week 8 Finalized Card

Thursday/Friday

2* West Virginia TT OV 36.5
1* West Virg/Syracuse OV 59
1* West Virginia -13.5
1* Arizona 1H -3

Saturday

Straight
3* Arkansas -15.5
3* Oregon -31
2* Alabama -29.5
1* Temple -13.5
3* K-state -10 (Hk)
2* Stanford -20.5 (Hk)
2* Wake Forest -2.5 (Hk)
2* Wisconsin -6.5 (Hk)

Parlay/Teaser
2* Two team, 6 pt TW teaser: Wisconsin -2.5; Notre Dame -3 (-105)
2* Four team, 8.5 pt TR teaser: Arkansas -7; Alabama -20.5; Texas A&M -12.5, Kansas State -2.5 (+168)
2* SEC Special: 5 pt TW teaser: Arkansas -10; Alabama -24; LSU -16 (+195)
1.5*Big 12 special: Three Team, 6.5 TW Teaser: Oklahoma State pk; Texas A&M -14; Kansas State -4.5 (+157)
1* Two-Team Parlay: Wake -3, Penn St ML. (+206)
1* Six team, ML Parlay: Wake Forest; Clemson; Oklahoma State; Kansas State; Notre Dame; Wisconsin (+510)

BIG play of the week:
5* Two-team 7 pt, TW teaser: Stanford -14, West Virginia -7 (-128)

**Notes: I have already locked in everything in red. The plays listed in black are the ones I am waiting on to buy the hook. If you're a conservative gambler, I do not advise playing everything listed. The Unit amounts should give you an idea of which bets I like from most to least. I post all pending and lost wagers in red, but the winners will be switched to green. I'll update units lost/won periodically.***

Best of Luck Everyone!

LSUtiger · 10-21-11, 12:53 AM

I've decided to make a copy of my picks so I can edit the W/L throughout the next two days, while keeping the master copy above for a reference.

Week 8 Finalized Card

Thursday/Friday

2* West Virginia TT OV 36.5
1* West Virg/Syracuse OV 59
1* West Virginia -13.5
1* Arizona 1H -3

Saturday

Straight
3* Arkansas -15.5
3* Oregon -31
2* Alabama -29.5
1* Temple -13.5
3* K-state -10 (Hk)
2* Stanford -20.5 (Hk)
2* Wake Forest -2.5 (Hk)
2* Wisconsin -6.5 (Hk)

Parlay/Teaser
2* Two team, 6 pt TW teaser: Wisconsin -2.5; Notre Dame -3 (-105)
2* Four team, 8.5 pt TR teaser: Arkansas -7; Alabama -20.5; Texas A&M -12.5, Kansas State -2.5 (+168)
2* SEC Special: 5 pt TW teaser: Arkansas -10; Alabama -24; LSU -16 (+195)
1.5*Big 12 special: Three Team, 6.5 TW Teaser: Oklahoma State pk; Texas A&M -14; Kansas State -4.5 (+157)
1* Two-Team Parlay: Wake -3, Penn St ML. (+206)
1* Six team, ML Parlay: Wake Forest; Clemson; Oklahoma State; Kansas State; Notre Dame; Wisconsin (+510)

BIG play of the week:
[5* Two-team 7 pt, TW teaser: Stanford -14, West Virginia -7 (-128)

Overall: -6*

Bad Start with WVU....Gotta make it up tomorrow. Hopefully some better luck tomorrow.

jchongsu · 10-21-11, 01:55 PM

Pending10/21/11 8:00pm College Football 309 West Virginia/Syracuse Over 55½ -190*

Pending10/22/11 12:30pm College Football 321 Wake Forest -3 -125* vs Duke

Pending10/22/11 12:20pm College Football 323 Arkansas -13½ -150* vs Mississippi

Pending10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 328 Clemson -410* vs North Carolina

Pending10/22/11 3:30pm College Football 347 Temple -13½ -120* vs Bowling Green

Pending10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 353 Oklahoma State -260* vs Missouri

Pending10/22/11 3:30pm College Football 355 Oregon -27½ -180* vs Colorado

Pending10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 363 Kansas State -400* vs Kansas

Pending10/22/11 7:00pm College Football 375 Penn State -190* vs Northwestern

Pending10/22/11 7:15pm College Football 380 Alabama -27½ -150* vs Tennessee U

Pending10/22/11 7:30pm College Football 382 Notre Dame -380* vs USC

Pending10/22/11 8:00pm College Football 389 Wisconsin -280* vs Michigan State