Kansas State @ Texas Tech - Fawkes Write Up

[guy Fawkes]

Season Record 8-3-0 +32.6u

HEY SBR Forums! I thought this one was going to be about Purdue over Penn State, but I just couldn't find enough to prove my case. I still think Purdue is the right play in that one, but I would never ask or recommend anyone play my or any other player's "hunches". Unfortunately this is going to be the second week in a row all of my write ups have been in favor of the favorite, but there just aren't a lot of dogs that meet my criteria for a write up this week (Michigan @ Michigan State is receiving enough attention without my two cents). Well, without further posturing here we go!

Kansas State @ Texas Tech

Kansas State is having a great season and is certainly one of the Cinderella stories for this college football season. They've worn down good teams and made bad teams look silly. Most notably, Kansas State shocked Baylor in a 36-35 battle. Last week Kansas State once again downed a favorite in Mizzou in a 24-17 thriller. Kansas State has only gone on the road once this year. Things are riding high in Manhattan, Kansas. But we aren't in Kansas anymore, Toto.

Statistics Kansas is 0-6 ATS against Texas Tech dating back to 2000 and boasts a 1-5 record. Kansas State has lost by an average of 24.2 points overall and 36.7 on the road. In Kansas State's last three games they have allowed 393, 478 and 411 yards while gaining 286, 356 and 398 against Mizzou, Baylor and Miami respectively. Collin Klein (QB jr) has a season completion percentage of 57.4% for 593 yards, 6 touchdowns while throwing 3 interceptions and boasting a 120.4 passer-rating. Klein is mostly known for the run with 115 carries and 468 yards averaging (4.1 yards per carry) and 7 touchdowns. John Hubert (RB so) actually has less carries than his quarterback with 86 for 469 yards, but averages 5.5 yards per carry but only has 1 rushing touchdown this year. Kansas is averaging 4.8 yards per play and allowing 5.4 to opponents.

Texas Tech is 5-1 and coming off of a bye week for this game. This is Texas Tech's homecoming and the stands will be packed with 60,545 Red Raiders screaming and cheering. An empty seat is not only going to be a rarity, its going to be quickly filled. Texas Tech's only loss this season came at the hands of Texas A&M in a 45-40 showcasing of both offensive talents. The Red Raiders are coming for blood this week and will be led by a quarterback who should be on the pleasant end of national attention after this game.

Statistics Texas Tech is averaging 544.0 passing yards and 632.7 yards overall in their last 3 meetings with Kansas State in Jones AT&T Stadium, scoring an average of 54.3 points. Their last meeting saw the Red Raiders with 739 total yards, scoring 66 points in 2009. This year, Seth Doege (QB jr) is leading the team with a season average 71.4% completion rating for 1706 yards (averaging 284.3 yards through the air). Doege has 17 touchdowns with 1 interception this year, while boasting an NCAA 21st best 158.3 passer-rating. Eric Stephens (RB jr) has 509 yards on 109 attempts for 5.2 yards per carry and 8 rushing touchdowns. Stephens is also a capable receiver with 15 receptions for 128 yards averaging 8.5 yards per reception. Texas Tech has a great deal of impressive team statistics and I won't list them all, but a few are: averaging 5.9 yards per play, 0.5 points per play, 53.6% 3rd down conversions and 95.8% red zone scoring.

Personal Notes

Seth Doege is the best quarterback no one is talking about. After this high profile game, bettors won't be able to take advantage of that anymore.

If Kansas State doesn't come off as a bad team or at least as bad as I make most seem in my write ups, its because they aren't. The defense for Kansas State is formidable. The offense is one-dimensional and is the largest angle I'm playing at here.

Texas Tech will need to stay disciplined, Kansas State has relied on penalties for over 10% of their first downs this season.

Texas Tech is not going to run away with this one, if anyone tails me here get ready to sweat.

The turnovers for this game was dead on the exact same. Both are averaging 1.8 takeaways per game and -1.2 in the turnover margin overall.

Both Kickers have a 49 yard long for the season, but Donnie Carona (Texas Tech K sr) is a perfect 3 for 3 from 40+ yards, while Anthony Cantele (Kansas State K jr) is 1 for 3 from the same distance.

If this is a close game (without overtime) Texas Tech comes away with a huge advantage with an excellent passing game, passing defense and kicker. In order to win, Kansas State needs to take and hold a 2 score lead. If the Red Raiders are able to neutralize the running game (either via time or defensive formation), Kansas will drown.

Darrin Moore (WR jr) is questionable with a knee injury (but as reported by espn.go.com: "Moore (knee/ankle) is expected to play Saturday against Kansas State, Tech coach Tommy Tuberville told the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal." for Texas Tech), if I could find any reports confirming his readiness this would be my first 10u play of the season, but instead...

My Picks

Texas Tech -3 (buy the hook @ -120) @ 5u

Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!

[spladle08]

Im not on it but very nice break down, I agree all signs point to tech but with Coach Snyder back in charge, I cant bet any of the KSU games until they start losing. I'm scared and pathetic, GL man

[Racks on Racks]

I'm tailing you! BOL! I'm just looking for one more pick that I'm very confident in...

[NDnation]

Very nice write up! I have Tech in a money line parlay and that ups the confidence in them for sure. I just dont think k-state keeps up with this tech offense.

[CBASS]

Great analysis G Fawkes and I like the pick. GL to you this weekend.

[starfire]

Thanks for the w/u
I think over is the play

[suicidekings]

Nice writeup.

I've definitely been leaning the other way on this game for a couple of reasons. KSU has played a tougher schedule than TT, who have only really faced TAMU. Despite this, TT has been having real trouble in the first half of games, even against the weaker opponents.

vs Texas State: Down 10-9 at half
@ New Mexico: Up 38-7 at half
vs Nevada: Down 14-7 at half
@ Kansas: Down 27-24 at half (Down 20-7 after 1st Q)
vs TAMU: Down 31-20 at half

I feel that the first half performance is much more indicative of how good a team actually is than the full game score. There's a lot to be said for the ability to come back in the second half, but when they've made a habit of falling behind in the first half of games, to me that's not a positive indicator. In contrast, KSU has been stronger in the 1H of games.

vs Eastern Kentucky: 0-0
vs Kent State: 34-0 KSU
@ Miami FL: 14-3 KSU
vs Baylor: 21-19 BU
vs Missouri: 10-3 KSU

HC game or not, I would tread lightly with Texas Tech here.

[sandman0713]

nice job again man. after only 2 weeks of paying attention to these, i already look foward to and respect your posts here. already have my 6 plays, so not going with you this week...but i did want to say thanks last week for the work we cashed on. i agree with the above post about texas tech being a shaky team. i think this game will tell me about them and bring out some answers to the unknowns that keep me from betting them either way. i do feel if they get it rolling at home though that they are capable of trouncing a team like kstate with limited scoring ability. anyways...good luck to you again man. i must say, i was hoping your write up this week would be on the miami ohio game. how can i like that game so much when nobody else is even taking a 2nd look at it? maybe the 70 total yards of o last week by kent just caused my blinders to go up, and i could only see miami o after that. if you have time man would you mind taking a look at that one before saturday? i don't need the fancy write up and all...just an honest opinion. i already have it for 4 units, but i am thinking of betting a little more. either way...thanks for the work man.

[collie]

Thanks heaps for the info. TT really turned me off with there last gasp win over Nevada and have been to scared to play them since hence im goin with the over 59.5 in this one

[Ca$hfloW]

I just think there are better games out there to bet on is all im going to say but BOL and I hope it cashes for you.

[guy Fawkes]

Hey all! Thanks for so many great comments already! I definitely see Kansas State getting ahead in the first half on this one, but like I said: Be ready to sweat this one out. Unless Kansas State can maintain that two score lead throughout the game into the fourth quarter Texas Tech has all the advantages late and is a very resourceful team in the second half. Good luck to everyone's bets this week, I hope you cash everything you have that doesn't directly conflict with me!

@CBASS - Good luck out there man, I wish I could say I'm with you 100%, but I need the Gamecocks to down Miss St. in a big way

@SuicideKings - You know my weeks normally do better when you're on my side with these, maybe I'll have to peek your picks early next week and copy.

@Sandman - I did take a look at the Miami (Ohio) @ Kent game, because I was actually hoping I could find a dog in Kent. Short story: I couldn't. I've had a couple bets with Miami (Ohio) this year and they've disappointed me every step of the way. I thought they had a chance to beat Minnesota, they didn't even cover the spread. I thought they could combine with Cinci for some points and the over, they got shut out. It seems like Miami (Ohio) is one of those rare teams that looks better on paper than they are, despite looking pretty bad.

That being said, their opposition is Kent. There are some FCS schools out there I would take to beat Kent. Kent is only averaging 171 yards per game, but the competition has been stringent in Northern Illinois, Ohio, Kansas State and UL-Lafayette (defensively I consider them tough). Knowing that, Kent is still averaging a better ground game than Miami (Ohio). In these bottom-of-the-barrel-brawls I tend to give home field advantage a bit more sway, but I'm not sure if both of the Kent fans can show up this Saturday.

If you wanted to mine stats on this one you could make a solid case either way. If I had a gun to my head I'd bet Miami (Ohio) just because of how bad Kent has truly been while looking bad against superior opponents.

[guy Fawkes]

I just think there are better games out there to bet on is all im going to say but BOL and I hope it cashes for you.

I appreciate the support! We all see different things when we look at a line, if this one isn't for you I applaud you for making up your own mind and going your own way. Best of luck to you, Cash!

[sandman0713]

Hey all! Thanks for so many great comments already! I definitely see Kansas State getting ahead in the first half on this one, but like I said: Be ready to sweat this one out. Unless Kansas State can maintain that two score lead throughout the game into the fourth quarter Texas Tech has all the advantages late and is a very resourceful team in the second half. Good luck to everyone's bets this week, I hope you cash everything you have that doesn't directly conflict with me!

@CBASS - Good luck out there man, I wish I could say I'm with you 100%, but I need the Gamecocks to down Miss St. in a big way

@SuicideKings - You know my weeks normally do better when you're on my side with these, maybe I'll have to peek your picks early next week and copy.

@Sandman - I did take a look at the Miami (Ohio) @ Kent game, because I was actually hoping I could find a dog in Kent. Short story: I couldn't. I've had a couple bets with Miami (Ohio) this year and they've disappointed me every step of the way. I thought they had a chance to beat Minnesota, they didn't even cover the spread. I thought they could combine with Cinci for some points and the over, they got shut out. It seems like Miami (Ohio) is one of those rare teams that looks better on paper than they are, despite looking pretty bad.

That being said, their opposition is Kent. There are some FCS schools out there I would take to beat Kent. Kent is only averaging 171 yards per game, but the competition has been stringent in Northern Illinois, Ohio, Kansas State and UL-Lafayette (defensively I consider them tough). Knowing that, Kent is still averaging a better ground game than Miami (Ohio). In these bottom-of-the-barrel-brawls I tend to give home field advantage a bit more sway, but I'm not sure if both of the Kent fans can show up this Saturday.

If you wanted to mine stats on this one you could make a solid case either way. If I had a gun to my head I'd bet Miami (Ohio) just because of how bad Kent has truly been while looking bad against superior opponents.

thanks man. miami ohio doesn't look so good on paper as much as kent just looks pathetic on paper. that being said, paper is all i have to judge these teams with as i have not watched either this year or last that i can remember. i will just leave it as a 4 unit play and move on. thanks for the time.

[flocko76]

What's the rule about taking the "unranked home team" giving points to the "ranked road team?"

[linedrivr]

Texas Tech is 5-1 and coming off of a bye week for this game.

maybe you meant to say Tech is 4 - 1, coming off a tough loss at home to the hated Aggies last week and this will be the 5th weekend in a row they are playing a game. Their last open date (bye) was Sept 10th which is their only open week for the season. otherwise nice writeup on the game and well written.

good luck this weekend and hope this one cashes for you.

[spladle08]

I like the over here, Tech's lowest TT this year has been 60 (in game one)... 69 in game 2 and 3... I know K-State has a stout defense but I dont see them slowing down tech much but doing a decent job of keeping up, kind of like the Baylor game, mid 30's at least for both teams, 60 as the line should make for an easy Over...

[guy Fawkes]

maybe you meant to say Tech is 4 - 1, coming off a tough loss at home to the hated Aggies last week and this will be the 5th weekend in a row they are playing a game. Their last open date (bye) was Sept 10th which is their only open week for the season. otherwise nice writeup on the game and well written.

good luck this weekend and hope this one cashes for you.

Yeah, you're 100% correct not sure what I was thinking. Mistakes will happen with these write ups, but I'll be the first to own up to them. Thank you for your diligence and I apologize to any readers for this error.

[linedrivr]

one more thing to point out regarding the Red Raiders this week. They travel to OU next weekend where they KNOW they will get slaughtered so expect max effort this week from Tech as they will need this W if they want to have any shot at becoming bowl eligible this season.

They have a tough schedule down the stretch after the Kansas State matchup this weekend (KST will be no pushover). looking at Tech's remaining games, they realistically lose 4 of them with the Iowa St and Baylor matchups being questionable.

OU on the road - loss
Iowa St @ home - win ?
Texas on the road - loss
Oklahoma ST @ home - loss
Mizzou on the road - loss
Baylor @ Jerry's world - loss ? probably depends on who has the ball last

[TroyGreen]

Missed the link in the other thread. Thanks!

[guy Fawkes]

New Season Record 8-5-0 +23.3u

I once again apologize to anyone who followed my pick. I will be taking some time after tonight to consider my strategy, analyses and bankroll management. Again, I apologize to anyone who may have picked the wrong side because of my information.