Betting the opposite of what the book wants you to

wunwun · 10-11-11, 02:00 PM

Paveyracer had a great thread/observation last season.
Worked especially well for college only.
It's give 3.5 & 7.5; take 2.5 & 6.5 or NP for me.
Sorry, don't know how to post thread reference.

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 02:29 PM

I'd really love to see if anyone has tracked this and how well it's worked in the past. I'm a bit iffy on betting it blindly, but maybe I'll use this thread to track it. I just know that my eyes always light up when I see those juicy lines but realized after a 'few' losses that the lines are made for a reason.

If anyone has any info on this, please post - otherwise let's discuss and I'll track it in this thread. What book or site should I use to determine the lines the for most accurate info?

letsgo · 10-11-11, 02:36 PM

It is not that easy.

sandman0713 · 10-11-11, 02:45 PM

yes they set it at a certain number to try to get you to bet it...but only so they can get equal action on both sides. it is not to try to trick you, or get all the action on one side. if a team is getting hammered at -13.5 with no action the other way, then it ends up at 14.5 to show some value and get people on the other side. all the line is telling you is which side a certain book needs action on. at the end of the day the books are not gamblers...just want equal action and that juice. we are the ones moving that line to 3.5 or 7.5...not the book.

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 02:49 PM

You bring up a very good point that I was thinking about sandman, but maybe I should track opening lines? I know the book will adjust to anything going on in the week and what sharps are betting and public and whatnot, but I figured it was worth looking into anyway.

sandman0713 · 10-11-11, 03:02 PM

yeah...now i do know people who have tracked that...meaning the way the opening line moves. no advantage as far as i know, and by the time we get those lines they are already at least 3 points off and prolly not such a value. it is always interesting if anyone wants to track that stuff and see what it shows. i think there are some hardcore people in this business that have tried just about every trick in the book though...lol. gl...and keep us posted if you track any of it.

wunwun · 10-11-11, 03:45 PM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/819193-traps-college-football-week-based-opening-lines.html

One of the threads by Pavyracer.
There were others as referenced in this thread.

Dogway · 10-11-11, 05:01 PM

Does anyone know of a website that has this years open lines for college?

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 05:01 PM

Seems like it had good success last year, gonna track it in here if I remember to.

Going to be tracking teams that open -7.5 and -3.5 as favorites and seeing if we play them at those numbers, also will look out for any time that those hit -7 or -3 to make things even better.

For dogs, looking for dogs of +2.5 and +6.5.

I'll see if I can post if I find them getting to the 'key numbers' to maximize profit and minimize juice, but will also try and track what the outcome would be if we were forced to buy the hook.

Ones that catch me eye this week (using BetCris [via sbrlines] unless someone offers a better sugestion)

San Diego State +6.5 (@Air Force) - currently at 6 [some books opened at 3.5 but I think the rest adjusted]

Pitt -7.5 (vs Utah)

Oklahoma State -7.5 (@Texas)

Clemson -7.5 (@ Maryland)

Texas Tech -3.5 (vs Kansas State)

New Mexico State -3.5 (vs Idaho)

Utah State -3.5 (@Fresno State)

Let me know if you think I should track this using something other than betcris, and thoughts in general. Let's hope this is good!

Dogway · 10-11-11, 05:01 PM

Yes I've tried google to no avail

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 05:09 PM

Not sure if there is a fool-proof way to find out a 'true' opening line, don't think there's a such thing as a 'universal' opener... but let's track it with cris for now unless someone has a better option.

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 05:44 PM

Some assumptions:

a majority of these plays will be against the public, since people love to think that they are beating the book and getting an edge by getting the half point but hopefully if this system works then it won't be.

The favorites of 7.5 and 3.5 may see some 'rlm' because of this (although don't expect it to be as big as dogs since public loves favorites)

Underdogs of 2.5 and 6.5 if people are
on the favorite could see some big rlm.

These are things that I'm just predicting because I haven't actually tracked it and I'm also not the most affluent in terms of betting so please chime in and we'll discuss. Remember, we're all on the same side here: let's beat the books.

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 08:04 PM

Anyone know where I can find opening line info from earlier in the season?

chilidog · 10-11-11, 08:25 PM

right here on sbr

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 08:43 PM

From sbrlines via betcris

Week 1:

Navy -7.5, won 40-17 = W

New Mexico State +6.5, lost 44-24 = L

1-1, lost juice... not many opportunities here week 1

Week 2:

Iowa State +6.5, won 44-41 = W

Southern Miss -7.5, lost 26-20 = L

Georgia +2.5, lost 45-42 (line closed at 3, we'll discuss later) = ?

Virginia -7.5, won 34-31 = L

Texas -7.5, won 17-16 = L

USC -7.5, won 17-14 = L

Central Florida -7.5, won 30-3 = W

Notre Dame -3.5, lost 35-31 = L

2-5? awful

Week 3:

LSU -3.5, won 19-6 = W

Central Michigan +6.5, lost 44-14 = L

Vandy +2.5, won 30-7 = W

Minnesota -3.5, won 29-23 = W

Florida International +6.5, won 17-10 = W

Arizona State +2.5, lost 17-14 = ? [was up to 3 many places, just recording it as is and we'll discuss]

Ohio State +2.5, lost 24-6 = L

Texas El Paso +2.5, won 16-10 = W

Week 3 wrapup: 5-2-? [unsure how to grade Arizona State... if I end up making official picks, will make a decision obviously whether to recommend it or not and what number to play it on]

Week 4:

Toledo +2.5, lost 33-30 [see above]

North Carolina +6.5, lost 35-28 [see above... again]

Army -3.5, lost 48-21 = L

Week 4 wrapup: 0-1?

looking at it now, I think I would recommend buying the hook but that may be me covering my ass so we'll see how it plays out. Not many plays, shitty week.

Week 5:

Pitt +2.5, won 44-17 = W

BYU -7.5, won 27-24 = L

Arkansas +2.5, won 42-38 = W

Baylor -3.5, lost 36-35 = L

Colorado State -3.5, lost 31-38 = L

Virginia Tech -7.5, lost 23-3 = L

Florida International -3.5, lost 31-27 = L

uL Lafayette -7.5, won 37-24 = L

Fresno State -3.5, lost 38-28 = L

2-7... just awful.

Week 6:

Virginia Tech -7.5, won 38-35 = L

Rutgers +6.5, won 34-10 = W (finally)

Michigan -7.5, won 42-24 = W

Tennessee +2.5, lost 20-12 = L

UL Monroe +2.5, lost 24-19 = L

North Texas -3.5, won 31-17 = W

3-3... losing juice

Overall: 10-13 since week 3 (not counting first two weeks since that seems like the adjusting period for bettors and books to the new look teams)

Not good right now, will continue to track because it did really well last year when looking at that thread especially later in the year.

This is not anything official at the moment, just something I found interesting and I will continue to track. Do not bet on this unless you understand that fact. Maybe it will be really awful and end up being great fade material!

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 08:52 PM

-3.5s:
3-4

-7.5s:
0-4

+6.5s:
2-0-?

+2.5s:
3-3- 2?

Wrecktangle · 10-11-11, 09:31 PM

The market sets the line, not some bookie "trying to get you."

suicidekings · 10-11-11, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by EricZ116

Not sure if there is a fool-proof way to find out a 'true' opening line, don't think there's a such thing as a 'universal' opener... but let's track it with cris for now unless someone has a better option.

The idea that the books are trying to fool you into taking the +3.5/+7.5/-2.5/-6.5 lines runs into some logical missteps when you consider that their primary business model revolves around the idea that if they manage to balance the action on a game, they will on average collect their 4.5% of the total wagered. Day after day, week after week, they're making their money. The idea also presupposes that there aren't a lot of people out there (individuals and syndicates) that are very adept at defining where a fair line for a game should be, and that have the bankrolls to take advantage of bookmaker mistakes.

What you're describing would lead to the eventual bankruptcy of the company in a death-by-a-thousand-cuts kind of way as the sharp money bleeds them out, game by game. This is the last position a sportsbook wants to be in...

EricZ116 · 10-11-11, 11:22 PM

You guys bring up some great points, and you are more than likely correct. I'm just going to follow this for my own intuition and because it did have some good success last season.

SD State started +6.5, at 6 now - will wait to see what it is closer to game time

Pitt -7.5 at 7 now, if this was an "official" system [which it is VERY far from], I'd say grab it now since public is all over Pitt. Will grade at 7.

UNC -3.5, at 3 now - will grade at 3.

Oklahoma State -7.5, still there but public is REALLY heavy on them. I'd say we should buy the hook now because I can see this going to 8.5 at some point.

Clemson -7.5, now at 8.5, I'll record what happens but wouldn't play it even if the system worked.

Texas Tech -3.5, now at -3, will grade at 3.

New Mexico State -3.5, now -1.5. That kind of movement doesn't sit well with me, wouldn't play it but will record it.

Utah State -3.5, will grade as if we bought the hook.

ManBearPig · 10-11-11, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by EricZ116

Anyone know where I can find opening line info from earlier in the season?

See if this helps...you can figure how to get what you need from there.

http://www.wagertracker.com/Odds.aspx?week=6&sport=NCAAF