This line opened where I expected and so far the early action is two-way with nearly equal number of bets on both teams. Present numbers I am looking at show 53% of all bets being made on Hawaii and 47% on the home dog San Jose State. I don’t see this line dropping much before Friday night and if anything I do believe the lines maker has this game pegged very well.
As a reminder, the lines maker did not make this based on a prediction for the outcome of the game. He made this line based on the level where he expects the action to be equal. They do not care who wins the game. What they care about is establishing a static line that does not need to be adjusted up or down to react to the betting flows.
The games that you see large line movements of three or more points are a books nightmare as the probability of getting ‘middled’ increase proportionally to the line movement. The early bettors, who got the low price can then ‘buy back’ the game at the higher price and have to pay only the ‘vig’ if the game does not get ‘middled.’
Large players can bet early and make the line move and this in turn attracts the smaller bettors, who get caught up the line action. Once the public gets ‘all in’ then the large players, or sharks as they are commonly called, can buy back the game or a portion of the game and still have a decent size bet if their initial play wins or the big return if the game gets ‘middled’.
Most of you already know this, but for any beginners in our forum it is one of the first things to truly learn about sports betting.
As a reminder, the lines maker did not make this based on a prediction for the outcome of the game. He made this line based on the level where he expects the action to be equal. They do not care who wins the game. What they care about is establishing a static line that does not need to be adjusted up or down to react to the betting flows.
The games that you see large line movements of three or more points are a books nightmare as the probability of getting ‘middled’ increase proportionally to the line movement. The early bettors, who got the low price can then ‘buy back’ the game at the higher price and have to pay only the ‘vig’ if the game does not get ‘middled.’
Large players can bet early and make the line move and this in turn attracts the smaller bettors, who get caught up the line action. Once the public gets ‘all in’ then the large players, or sharks as they are commonly called, can buy back the game or a portion of the game and still have a decent size bet if their initial play wins or the big return if the game gets ‘middled’.
Most of you already know this, but for any beginners in our forum it is one of the first things to truly learn about sports betting.
and now you like SJSU!
I only have 1 bet in play here so I will hope mine covers and you can win the OVER and all the rest... I just need Hawaii to cover 5.5