Looking to place a 5 dime play on Alabama at -29 over Vanderbilt at Alabama. Before I do, I would like any quality input, as I see no way in hell that Alabama does not score in the 40's, and shut out Vanderbilt, unless a turnover takes place. Thank you in advance for sharing any quality thoughts.
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Vandy will score a meaningless 7 points. Hopefully that wont mess with us. I love this play. I see bama winning by 5 touchdowns easily.Comment -
I LOVE the over in this bout. Expect Alabama to score 35 easily, and possibly a turnover or two lucky red zone's and Vander could put up 3-10 points. Bol.Comment -
Gotta back up "wrestler" here... in my write up I basically said if your going to bet Alabama in this game you might as well bet the over (which they might cover themselves). I personally think they WILL cover the over themselves, but could also see them giving up 7-14 to Vandy.I just think a 35-7 score or something like that isnt too far fetched, when I first checked it the OV/UN was 41 not sure what it is now, but they did give up a touchdown to Kent State, and then just came off big back to back wins while Vandy has a bye week... meh I can see Vandy getting over looked a bit and being very well prepared... dont sleep on them for this game, not the sexiest of picks for me. Good luck my friends WIN WIN WINComment -
I don't like this play. This is a major flat spot for Alabama.Comment -
I do not think Saban will let his teams have a "flat spot".Comment -
bama beat florida by a million, surely they can do the same to vanderbilt. bet the farm obviously.Comment -
Id watch out. The SEC is obviously the toughest conference to get through and what most powerhouse SEC teams do is slow down the game when playing an inferior opponent. Look at LSU for example. Against really good teams like Oregon and West Virginia, they put up 40 and 47 points up. Against lower tier teams like Miss St. and Kentucky they put up only 19 and 35. They knew they could beat these two teams without risking anything and by just using the ground and pound all gameComment -
I would expect Bama to put in fresh meat in 2H, vandy could keep it within 21 points.
good luck.
DRComment -
But that is probably true, but at the same time, they beat Arkansas and Florida by 28 and 24 points, including Florida at Florida.Comment -
true but i would expect alabama to win by 25-35 points...just hope your on the right side of thatComment -
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I'd wait for the Alabama TT and spread 1H and hammer it. Alabama will play Richardson for a half, Vandy is primarily a run offense and Alabama's D is holding teams to about 40 yards or rushing per game.Comment -
alabama is a terrible choice to lay 29 points with
didn't we see this same scenario last week with LSU beating a horrendous kentucky team by only 28 points???
tease this below 20 or no play IMO, a bet like this is always in big risk of a backdoor coverComment -
I think Alabams is a better team than LSU. I guess rank says otherwise, but I know which way Ill bet betting when time comes.
If Oregon +24 was safe then Bama +29 is the same.....I personally think Bama is the Title team this year.
Its certainly no horrible choiceComment -
Life-long Bama fan here, let's see if I can give a little input here. Bama is one of the worst teams at playing to their opponent. Altough it has gotten better under Saban, they still sleep walk through so of the lower teir SEC games, like when Kentucky played us to the wire a few years ago. There is absolutely no reason Alabama shouldn't cover this spread, and I am in no way saying it is a bad bet. With my intimate knowledge of how this team tends to play, I chose to go with the over 41 this week.Comment -
Much appreciate all your input!Comment -
Also keep this in mind if you choose to play. Anytime a spread is 50% or greater of the total O/U line (29 to 41.5 = .6987), there is a great correlated parlay advantage of taking the favorite and the over or the dog and the under. This is the case of if "A is going to happen, then B will likely happen".Comment -
Already locked it in at 28.0Comment -
.... bumpComment -
Don't know if Bama cover -29, but I would take their defense straight up over Vandy's offense!Comment -
Thanks for your quality reply DanoRoo. You are definitely a man of reason. lolComment -
This type of thinking is why Vegas stays in business. The theory of relativity does not stand up in sports. Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, so obviously Team A must beat Team C is a fallacy.
Last weeks game has very little to do with this weeks game. That's why they play the games.
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I really liked this game early in the week, but the more I look at it, the less confident I feel. Getting about that time to finalize my wagers. At first, the points didn't really matter. Vandy Offense is horrific. South Carolina plays some pretty good "D". Vandy amassed a whopping 77 yards of Offense against them, a couple weeks back. Not only did they not execute, they are undisciplined with 80 yards of penalties in that game. The total looks interesting, but when you think about it and look at the numbers, do the Commodores even score here? Yeah, Tide could real roll here, 49 -0? Just don't like the chances.
Lets look at the otherside. Vandy defense is tough. Haven't really played anyone , but haven't given up more than 21 pts in a game. Miss and S. Car top opponets , so far. Vandy D Leads the nation in picks. 14 picks and 3 returned for pick six's. Maybe Vandy D will provide only points? Or, at least set them up for a field goal or two.
If your Saban, what are you going to do? Run the ball down there throats and let the D play some defense? This is the Defenses game. No need to pass and play into Vandy strength. Well, maybe for a big play or two when the safety and corners keep creeping into the box to stop the run? Lot of trends argue against Bama laying over + 14 as conf. home fav. Bama never seems to take Vandy serious. Vandy is fully aware that they are stepping into what must feel like a gladiator arena. Don't bring your A game and play to the whistle and this Bama team will beat the shit out of you. Fans will roar in approval and it can get ugly. Fast. Vandy knows they can't win but this is a conference game and damn, you just don't want to be humiliated like that.
I really like Bama and their old school style of football. Love agressive defenses and a Offense that just lines up and says we're going to run the ball against you, try and stop us. Those O lineman just wear guys down and excell in making downfield and hustle blocks.
I'm going to put a little on Bama. I usually do. Not going to be my "big play" of the day. I like them more on the road against tough teams. Teams they get fired up for. Somebody like the Gators. I'm 4-0 with Bama, so I'll stick with them. Didn't bet their only non cover when they were laying 47 or so against N. Texas. I won't lay 47 against anybody. Wouldn't hesitate much to grab the other side of + 47, in most div 1 games. Better to look elsewere.
Bottom line, this is what I "think" might happen. Defense will Tee off against Vandy. Guys will be looking to make highlight reel plays for espn. I give them a field goal or two at best. Bama will be happy to just run the ball in dominating fashion, score in the mid to upper 30's. It's homecoming for Bama. Saban will want to see some guys get some plays that don't see a lot of time during the year. Especially, seniors that don't play a lot and kids that are busting ass in practice. Homecoming is about winning and letting some other guys get some plays. Something to consider. I'm GUESSING this game Alabama 35-38, Vandy 3-6. That's like Bama covering by a possible field goal. Vandy D scores and they cover. I don't think Saban will give them the opportunity. Then again, dealing with college kids all fired up. Will Tide O surrender only Td? Those are my thoughts. Rooting for Bama, they will probably cover, but I see better games. By the way, most of the newsletters have it as a top pick. GlComment -
@ Pivotpoint.
Thank you for a great post, as that is exactly the type of response I was hoping to hear when I started the thread. Your time and effort in making your post was very appreciated. Good luck tomorrow on all your bets!
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Did yall know this is Bama's homecoming game ? lots of distractionsComment -
I liked the kid and Boise turned into a rocking chair game, so I rambled a bit. Might I suggest that you take a look at West Virginia for Saturday. May we both have many winners.Comment -
Thank you and will do!
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What about teasing it to Vandy +36.0 and o36Comment -
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Vandy's D might have 14 picks but they only have 8 sacks, and 4 of the picks were because of Stephen Garcia. With that being said, I have very little confidence in a team that picks off a qb 4 times in a game and holds him to barely 50% and then loses by 18. Bama has come through for me so far this year so I'm gonna keep riding that train until it goes into the ground. I think the FH is around Bama -17 right now but I am trying to stay away since Bama tends to score the majority of their points in the second half so far this season. Bama points and over for me.Comment -
Bump ....... Still hoping to get more input on this game despite having quite a large bet on it already.Comment
