Oklahoma/texas

paranoyd androyd · 10-02-11, 09:17 PM

leaning texas early

Urbanwildlife · 10-02-11, 09:19 PM

On the basis of what?????

treytb8 · 10-02-11, 09:23 PM

Texas + the points line extremely high for Rivalry game. Oklahoma also hasn't been overly impressive, if Texas can get solid qb play this could be 1 3 pt game.

mstone897 · 10-02-11, 09:49 PM

I lean Texas as well. A stated 9 is high for a rivalry game. Texas is locked in right now trying to atone for last season. My only worry is that Texas is a very young team and could be intimidated by the atmosphere.

suicidekings · 10-02-11, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by Urbanwildlife

On the basis of what?????

I've already played Texas +9.5 for x5 (which is my max for an opener at this point of the season). Texas is one of the most underrated teams in the FBS this year, featuring very good defense and strong team discipline overall. They're a strong program that had a down year last year, but are still a very deep and talented team. Their biggest weakness was Garrett Gilbert and he's been demoted in favour of a Case McCoy / David Ash tandem.

IMO, Texas represents the second biggest threat to OU going undefeated this season (after Oklahoma State) and the Red River Rivalry game is always a huge deal for both of these teams. I expected this line to come out as OU -6, and was pleasantly surprised to see that the linesmakers feel the need to shade the line towards the very public Sooner team. Also, earlier this season Missouri put up 532 yards against OU, and Texas has a more potent offense. 9 points is a lot when you're playing a good defensive team that can also score.

Urbanwildlife · 10-02-11, 10:18 PM

Much appreciated suicidekings! This was the type of feedback I was hoping to receive.

Retrospect · 10-02-11, 11:05 PM

texas is looking really good this year and kind under the radar

mstone897 · 10-02-11, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I've already played Texas +9.5 for x5 (which is my max for an opener at this point of the season). Texas is one of the most underrated teams in the FBS this year, featuring very good defense and strong team discipline overall. They're a strong program that had a down year last year, but are still a very deep and talented team. Their biggest weakness was Garrett Gilbert and he's been demoted in favour of a Case McCoy / David Ash tandem.

IMO, Texas represents the second biggest threat to OU going undefeated this season (after Oklahoma State) and the Red River Rivalry game is always a huge deal for both of these teams. I expected this line to come out as OU -6, and was pleasantly surprised to see that the linesmakers feel the need to shade the line towards the very public Sooner team. Also, earlier this season Missouri put up 532 yards against OU, and Texas has a more potent offense. 9 points is a lot when you're playing a good defensive team that can also score.

If I like Texas I need to get on it now right? What do you predict on line movement?

BigDofBA · 10-02-11, 11:56 PM

I'm loving it that everyone seems to like Texas.

As for OU not being overly impressive, what exactly has Texas done? They haven't even beaten a ranked team and should have lost at home to BYU.

OU has double digit wins over Florida State and Mizzou.

suicidekings · 10-03-11, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by mstone897

If I like Texas I need to get on it now right? What do you predict on line movement?

Honestly, it's hard to say. If I had to guess, I would say that the line will drop a bit early in the week but go back up on Friday/Saturday as public Oklahoma money comes in. Probably no rush to buy now, but I like to take a position early.

Sunde91 · 10-03-11, 12:59 AM

looking to play OK but waiting for now

Not buying Texas at all. What are they doing at QB? Splitting reps with 2 passing QBs in Ash and McCoy? Beating BYU by just 1 point at home (BYU is awful with one of the worst QBs I've seen) is eye opening. Then they blew out 2 shit teams with UCLA and ISU. Not convinced at all this team has turned a big corner from last year.

Texas D stats are horribly inflated with 4 joke teams to start the year.

OK's D will be ready for Baby Face II like they were @FSU. Landry isn't going to be stopped. Up tempo O will kill Tex

Urbanwildlife · 10-03-11, 01:03 AM

My thoughts echo Sunde, but that is why I wanted to make this post, to see what others had to say about this game before I made a decision to play it or not.

suicidekings · 10-03-11, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

I'm loving it that everyone seems to like Texas. As for OU not being overly impressive, what exactly has Texas done? They haven't even beaten a ranked team and should have lost at home to BYU. OU has double digit wins over Florida State and Mizzou.

It's not that OU isn't a great team. They're a legit contender. But take away the names for a minute and look at it objectively.

One team with a high powered offense and solid defense is playing another team with a defense that's on par with the first team and a solid offense (weaker than the first team, but still potent). They're playing at a neutral site (Cowboy Stadium) in a rivalry game that's existed for 110 years (first game in 1900). Both teams are undefeated. Their coaches have been managing their football programs for 13 and 14 years respectively, are both considered to be among the best in the FBS, and have virtually identical records over the last 10 seasons.

Texas is underrated. That doesn't mean I'm saying the Sooners are overrated. Just that laying -9 points in this game is crazy. I expect this game to be close and the Longhorns have a better chance to win it outright than the line would suggest.

guy Fawkes · 10-03-11, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Texas is underrated. That doesn't mean I'm saying the Sooners are overrated. Just that laying -9 points in this game is crazy. I expect this game to be close and the Longhorns have a better chance to win it outright than the line would suggest.

This is my initial gut reaction as well. 9 points is a lot for this type of game. I feel comfortable saying Oklahoma is likely to win, but I don't know about two scores. OK won by 10 against both Mizzou and FSU; 7-10 points is a tough call here. Then again that's quick and dirty research, I'll give this one a little more time during the week.

Gonz312 · 10-03-11, 10:15 AM

Can't look at the BYU game when judging Texas. Gilbert was running an inept offense for half the game and they were extremely conservative when replacing him with the youngs guys for the most part...and Malcolm Brown wasn't getting many reps. Things are completely different since then. I would play Tx at +9 and up but would lean OU if the line drops to under 8

samserif · 10-03-11, 10:42 AM

Agree 100%. What I love about Texas us that their awful 2010 season plus their early games with a bad QB has left many people underestimating the team they're fielding right now. Coaching staff is new, scheme is new, team is learning each week. I read today that at one point against ISU they had 9 freshmen on the field at the same time in D. They're still unknown all in all but the potential is there.

BigDofBA · 10-03-11, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

It's not that OU isn't a great team. They're a legit contender. But take away the names for a minute and look at it objectively.

One team with a high powered offense and solid defense is playing another team with a defense that's on par with the first team and a solid offense (weaker than the first team, but still potent). They're playing at a neutral site (Cowboy Stadium) in a rivalry game that's existed for 110 years (first game in 1900). Both teams are undefeated. Their coaches have been managing their football programs for 13 and 14 years respectively, are both considered to be among the best in the FBS, and have virtually identical records over the last 10 seasons.

Texas is underrated. That doesn't mean I'm saying the Sooners are overrated. Just that laying -9 points in this game is crazy. I expect this game to be close and the Longhorns have a better chance to win it outright than the line would suggest.

I graduated from OU and attended three OU/Texas games while in school (03, 04, 06) so you don't need to give me a run down of the rivalry.

Likewise, with all due respect to your opinion, it would be more credible if you at least knew where the game is played. It's not Cowboys stadium, it's the cotton bowl.

Line seems about right 30-20 OU.

Texas still has a lot of unknowns in my eyes.

Ice House · 10-03-11, 02:00 PM

Leaning Oklahoma .... I know previous meetings have been close but one of those Sam Bradford was hurt.

This Texas team is pretty awful. They are just as bad as they were last year. Only difference is they haven't been exposed yet b/c they have played a cupcake schedule so far.

The War Room · 10-03-11, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by Gonz312

Can't look at the BYU game when judging Texas. Gilbert was running an inept offense for half the game and they were extremely conservative when replacing him with the youngs guys for the most part...and Malcolm Brown wasn't getting many reps. Things are completely different since then. I would play Tx at +9 and up but would lean OU if the line drops to under 8

This is spot on. That game was a tale of two halves (one with Gilbert at QB and one without). Once the change was made, Texas outscored BYU 14-3. Also, Malcolm Brown was given minimal carries in that game. This Texas team has evolved, and if anyone watched the Iowa State game, it seems that David Ash is emerging as the #1 QB and he is a dual-threat with an an arm and legs to run.

A rivalry game which has been played within 7 points in 3 of the last 4 contests. Even the horrible 5-7 Texas team of last year played OU to a 7 point game. Its the Red River Rivalry, it will be close. This game also has all the components of an upset, a Texas defense more than capable of causing turnovers, a neutral site rivalry game, and Boise State-esque trick plays with Bryan Harsin.

The War Room · 10-03-11, 02:13 PM

Texas has covered the spread in 3 of their 4 games this year (BYU was the only exception) and they shattered it in their last two games. {3 point spread vs UCLA = win by 29, and 10 point spread vs ISU = win by 23**

BigDofBA · 10-03-11, 02:41 PM

We shall see. With all of the unknowns, there has to be better games to bet.

Texas has been better after benching Gilbert but they don't really have anyone on offense that scares me.

They don't have a stud RB. They don't have a goto reciever and they are running with a QB by committee.

All of these sweeps and played they run out of the wildcat may work against teams lacking speed but I feel like OUs defense matches up well against this type of attack.

Texas has a solid defense but its not any better than Florida State's. Likewise, I wouldn't consider it elite like A LSU or Alabama.

We shall see. If you break it down, OU is better at just about every position on paper.

Texas has a better kicker. That's about the only edge I can see.

dozer · 10-03-11, 05:34 PM

oklahoma will smack on texas. bottom line. texas plays slappy ass teams and win, so wtf is that????

okla is not isu, byu and ucla......three sorry ass teams

suicidekings · 10-03-11, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

I graduated from OU and attended three OU/Texas games while in school (03, 04, 06) so you don't need to give me a run down of the rivalry. Likewise, with all due respect to your opinion, it would be more credible if you at least knew where the game is played. It's not Cowboys stadium, it's the cotton bowl. Line seems about right 30-20 OU. Texas still has a lot of unknowns in my eyes.

You are correct, but the venue was the least relevant item in the list.

I didn't mean to lecture you about your team, and I agree that there are far more unknowns with the Longhorns than the Sooners, but therein lies the opportunity. Let's put it this way. If this game was being played a month from now when each team has 4 more games under their belts, I feel confident that the Sooners would not be laying -9 in this matchup.

NYSportsGuy210 · 10-03-11, 11:13 PM

Texas hasn't played anyone tough. Sooners punch them in the mouth and force them to make turn overs late.

travismcilrath · 10-03-11, 11:19 PM

I live in norman right by ou and not from here so not always leaning ou, they will win but will be tough to cover 9 or ten

travismcilrath · 10-03-11, 11:20 PM

cause I think the line will go up

dozer · 10-03-11, 11:20 PM

i agree. i have an open ended teaser that ill throw on okla -2 for sure. i think they win by 14+ though.

BigDeem5 · 10-03-11, 11:41 PM

Tx +10

BigDofBA · 10-04-11, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

You are correct, but the venue was the least relevant item in the list. I didn't mean to lecture you about your team, and I agree that there are far more unknowns with the Longhorns than the Sooners, but therein lies the opportunity. Let's put it this way. If this game was being played a month from now when each team has 4 more games under their belts, I feel confident that the Sooners would not be laying -9 in this matchup.

You're right about the venue not being important. I just trying to convey the fact that I know this rivalry quite well. Dallas is nuts OU/Texas weekend. People wouldn't believe how crazy it gets there the Friday night before the game and all day Saturday.

Anyway,I think the line is about right. I don't really think this is a great OU team by Stoop's standards. We were overrated starting the season at number 1. Over the past 10 seasons I would probably rank this as about our 5th most talented team. So in my eyes it's an average Stoops team. This means about 10-2, a conference title, and a BCS bowl.

With that said, our 2000 team won a national title and they weren't as talented as the 2003, 2004, and 2008 teams that failed. You have to have some chemistry, killer instinct, and luck on your side so I'm not counting this team out as far as a national title goes. I just feel like Alabama and LSU are the two best teams in the country.

Personally I wouldn't play this game at all. I have the game about 7-10 points in OU's favor. If I had to predict a score I would say 28-21 or 31-21. Something in that neighborhood. For that reason, I wouldn't bet on this game as it look like a coinflip.

brahmabull117 · 10-04-11, 03:16 AM

anybody else feel like OU is a very safe choice for a teaser??

I just can't imagine how texas can win against OU considering the difference in experience between the 2 teams. I think OU wins this matchup 8 maybe 9 out of 10 times so a 7 point teaser (-2.5) seems to have a lot of value here in my eyes

in fact, looking at the last 11 years of this matchup, the higher ranked team has won 10 out of 11 times

sweethook · 10-04-11, 04:25 AM

i hate say it but texas gets blowed outtt

soonerstud7804 · 10-04-11, 06:41 AM

I don't think there playing @ Jerry world are they???? been the Cotton Bowl forever and hasn't changed unless you know something I don't....

isotopes · 10-04-11, 09:33 AM

This thread reminds me of the Fl v. Bama thread last week, I have no clue why or how anyone was justifying saying that FL was going to win straight out, that was just obserd and Bama not only covered but crushed FL.

Similiar type of game this week. Texas is good, but they have issues and a younger offensive team. OK is an elite team this year. OK, Bama, and LSU are just way better than any other schools this year. Ok D is nasty, and regardless of the fact that they are playing in Texas they are going to expose the Texas QB situation.

There are going to be people arguing on both sides of this one, just like any game, but in college when you have an elite team like OK either lay off the game or go with the elite team. JMO.

nj1035 · 10-04-11, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

looking to play OK but waiting for now

Not buying Texas at all. What are they doing at QB? Splitting reps with 2 passing QBs in Ash and McCoy? Beating BYU by just 1 point at home (BYU is awful with one of the worst QBs I've seen) is eye opening. Then they blew out 2 shit teams with UCLA and ISU. Not convinced at all this team has turned a big corner from last year.

Texas D stats are horribly inflated with 4 joke teams to start the year.

OK's D will be ready for Baby Face II like they were @FSU. Landry isn't going to be stopped. Up tempo O will kill Tex

You bring up the BYU game but fail to acknowledge the fact that they were down 13-3 with Gilbert as QB, then made the switch and immediately made the comeback in the second half. Then went on to cover against UCLA and Iowa State, each time covering by 10+ points. This team is much better than you think now that they got rid of Gilbert and they are flying way under the radar as far as the betting lines are concerned.