Sharpest play on the board>(educational)

**Statsational** · 10-20-11, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Sharp money moves all week long. Early week line moves in football and overnight line moves in basketball are exclusively the territory of sharps, as few, if any, square bettors bet before gameday. One of the biggest misconceptions that I see among sports betting writers is the thought that square bettors move lines on a consistent basis prior to gameday. Quite frankly, that is completely wrong – there are no ‘public’ line moves more than 24 hours before kickoff or tip-off.

Just reading through this thread. Great stuff Pauly. This particular point is spot on. Sharps bet from the time the game opens until the close. They do this for a living and are looking for the best value. Squares bet 30 min before a game starts, they determine how much and how many games they will bet based on how well or poorly they are doing that day or week. Dallas in the NFL was a good example of sharp money. The line moved off 7 to 6.5 early in the week. That tends to be sharp money, especially when the game is NE at home. The public loves NE especially at home. We may be seeing that this week with Jax on MNF. Line opened at 9 and in many places it is 7.5. Most squares will be on Balt come Monday night. I advised the guys following me if they did not get the 9, like I did, I still liked 7.5 but there will be a huge amount bet on Balt monday and it may get it back to 8.

**PAULYPOKER** · 10-20-11, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by Statsational

Just reading through this thread. Great stuff Pauly. This particular point is spot on. Sharps bet from the time the game opens until the close. They do this for a living and are looking for the best value. Squares bet 30 min before a game starts, they determine how much and how many games they will bet based on how well or poorly they are doing that day or week. Dallas in the NFL was a good example of sharp money. The line moved off 7 to 6.5 early in the week. That tends to be sharp money, especially when the game is NE at home. The public loves NE especially at home. We may be seeing that this week with Jax on MNF. Line opened at 9 and in many places it is 7.5. Most squares will be on Balt come Monday night. I advised the guys following me if they did not get the 9, like I did, I still liked 7.5 but there will be a huge amount bet on Balt monday and it may get it back to 8.

Spot On!!

**Aztec Empire2** · 10-20-11, 11:56 AM

Good Luck Pauly

**naslax13** · 10-20-11, 05:42 PM

pauly, a little confused..i havent see any line movement on the ND game, why is that a 'sharp' bet?

**PAULYPOKER** · 10-21-11, 06:20 AM

Notre Dame is the sharp side trust me.................

**naslax13** · 10-21-11, 06:13 PM

perhaps, they should definitely take care of business... however, i think this play is more of your emotions, and not a clear "sharp" bet due to the screens going "black".. am i correct? .. the lines have not really moved.

**No coincidences** · 10-21-11, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by mp5070

Its too early for the sharps to bet......their bets come in few minutes before game time.......This is a square bet because you basically chasing public money....

What?

**BernardMadoff** · 10-21-11, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by mp5070

Its too early for the sharps to bet......their bets come in few minutes before game time.......This is a square bet because you basically chasing public money....

How does this make sense? Only time one would wait that long if they think a line is moving in their favor, otherwise they would be early, unless one was trying to manipulate the line early so others would chase and then take the other side later, only a few people with enough loot and know what their doing does this.

**broadway6** · 10-21-11, 06:50 PM

love the thread...this is similar to how i've been betting for a year.

pauly

**artist** · 10-21-11, 06:53 PM

Imma keep a sharp watch on this thread GL PaulY

**Ralphie Halves** · 10-21-11, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

There are sharp bettors in Las Vegas who are willing to drive an hour or more to outlying locations just to get a half point better than they can find here in town.

Great write-up Pauly, this was the only sentence I disagreed with. I live in the extreme south end of Vegas, and to get to the Leroy's at the Speedway Casino, which I believe is the furthest away from me, only takes 30 minutes in traffic. Where is anyone going to drive more than an hour from Vegas to get to? Pahrump Nugget??

I usually get better numbers offshore anyway, especially in baseball and hockey.

**kcburg** · 10-22-11, 05:33 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

I had a feeling this was the play this week when line first came out at +6.5 I hesitated on locking it in,but I think the +4 is solid, actually I think the ML might cash......

+3.5 good enough?

**PAULYPOKER** · 10-22-11, 06:50 AM

Originally posted by kcburg

+3.5 good enough?

Yes...........

**iwanttowin** · 10-22-11, 07:38 AM

North Caroline St +5.5 is solid. Virignia let down spot.

**naslax13** · 10-22-11, 12:55 PM

purdue was the sharpest bet iv seen in ncaaf/nfl this season, had them as well today

**Greyraptor** · 10-22-11, 02:20 PM

Nice hit on Purdue today winning outright!

**Galego** · 10-22-11, 06:09 PM

Pauly, is Notre Dame at -9.5 a good play?

**naslax13** · 10-22-11, 09:16 PM

not a sharp bet on the irish pauly.. warned you

**PAULYPOKER** · 10-22-11, 09:50 PM

Week 5> 0-1
Week 6> 2-0
Week 7> 1-0
This weeks results Week 8> 1-1

**naslax13** · 10-24-11, 12:05 PM

georgia tech hands Clemson its first loss this week

2011 season: 14-8 , +33 units. http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...vestor-p2.html

**coachcfb1** · 10-24-11, 10:19 PM

Pauly, been wanting to ask... who the heck is the chick in the avatar.. i know I should probably know, but gosh I must know!

**Ralphie Halves** · 10-25-11, 02:13 AM

Looks like Liz Phair. Fine choice if it is.

**jonijesjusja** · 10-25-11, 03:48 AM

What's the play this week?

**naslax13** · 10-25-11, 10:30 AM

hes probably gona say USC but Gtech is the play

**PAULYPOKER** · 10-28-11, 01:03 AM

Week 9

USC Trojans
+7.5 -115

**artist** · 10-29-11, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

USC Trojans
+7.5 -115

Not this time

**kcburg** · 10-29-11, 05:15 AM

NC State went from plus 19.5 to 18..any thoughts.

**PAULYPOKER** · 10-29-11, 06:33 AM

Play#2 Week 9

Vanderbilt Commodores
+9 -102

**PAULYPOKER** · 10-29-11, 07:35 AM

Play#3 Week 9

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
-21.5 -108

**DHK** · 10-29-11, 11:15 AM

Thanks for doing this pauly. What program do you use to see sharp money?

**makinmoney11** · 10-29-11, 11:48 AM

ND is a VERY SHARP PICK this week.

**naslax13** · 10-29-11, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by naslax13

georgia tech hands Clemson its first loss this week

2011 season: 14-8 , +33 units. http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...vestor-p2.html

**PAULYPOKER** · 10-29-11, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by naslax13

Week 5> 0-1
Week 6> 2-0
Week 7> 1-0
Week 8> 1-1
This weeks results Week 9> 3-0

**HappyWinner** · 10-29-11, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Week 5> 0-1
Week 6> 2-0
Week 7> 1-0
Week 8> 1-1
This weeks results Week 9> 3-0

Damn spoke too soon man. Crazy ass game. Great week regardless.

**naslax13** · 10-29-11, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Week 5> 0-1
Week 6> 2-0
Week 7> 1-0
Week 8> 1-1
This weeks results Week 9> 3-0

you might wanna think about double checking the final score on that USC game... 2-1 buddy