Sharpest play on the board>(educational)
First off sharp/square is simply just terminology used to define the 2 largest but opposite types of bettors in the sports industry.
Below I will focus on supplying you guys with information on the Sharps, mostly because SHARPS are the most profitable sports investors in the long run if they are well disciplined with money management skills.
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Part1
Just some of many SHARP types in theory>>>>
There are several types of sharp bettors that bookmakers have to contend with. There are sharp bettors who handicap extremely well over the long term, particularly adept at beating college football and college hoops. These bettors find ways to access information that the bookmakers simply don’t have time to research, They can see matchup advantages on the field and/or situational advantages in the locker room as well or better than the bookies, giving them a huge advantage in a pair of sports where the lines maker must put out pointspreads on literally dozens of games that they know little about. When you see a three point line move on a college basketball game between Drexel and Georgia State, and the game still wins by a comfortable margin, you know that the sharps had the right information, and the right side.
Another type of sharp bettor relies on excellent betting techniques. These guys aren’t traditional handicappers in any sense of the word, but they are extraordinarily well versed in market economies, many with strong math backgrounds. Using reduced juice wagering and a strong understanding of likely line moves, these bettors can turn a modest 53% or 54% long term winning percentage into a substantial profit by always getting the best of the number while laying less juice than everybody else.
Then there are the professional betting syndicates, groups made famous by legendary bettors like Billy Walters and the Computer Group back in the 1980’s. The syndicates utilize their own predictive computer programming skills to identify weak pointspreads, betting accordingly. These groups tend to stay well below the radar screen, looking to stay out of the limelight as much as possible.
When these sharp bettors place their wagers, the marketplace reacts quickly. The von test (fictional name) screen is a staple for most serious bettors. It’s pricey, but it’s also one of the only sources for dozens and dozens of live odds from multiple books. When the von test (fictional name) screen ‘goes black’ on a particular game, that means that one of the betting groups has made a play. We saw situations like this many times,(example)> as the screen went black on LSU over Notre Dame , wiping out all the LSU -7 and -7.5 that was out there. Within ten minutes, the prevailing line was LSU -8.5.
Sharp money moves all week long. Early week line moves in football and overnight line moves in basketball are exclusively the territory of sharps, as few, if any, square bettors bet before gameday. One of the biggest misconceptions that I see among sports betting writers is the thought that square bettors move lines on a consistent basis prior to gameday. Quite frankly, that is completely wrong – there are no ‘public’ line moves more than 24 hours before kickoff or tip-off.
It’s easy to tell the difference between a sharp and a square line move. Sharp moves turn the von test (fictional name) screen black; square moves trickle from sportsbook to sportsbook throughout the day. Anyone with a live odds program can tell the difference immediately.
Sharp bettors tend to play at reduced juice shops . Square bettors tend to play at well advertised shops . Both book types are perfectly solvent, but they simply market to different audiences. Savvy bettors will have accounts at both type of places and many more shops as well, doing their darndest to bet into the best number for their wager, regardless of where the bet is placed. There are sharp bettors in Las Vegas who are willing to drive an hour or more to outlying locations just to get a half point better than they can find here in town.
Sharp bettors are more than willing to bet parlays and teasers, in contrast to how they have been portrayed. But, unlike square bettors, sharp bettors are going to bet parlays only when they are getting the best of the number. Many ‘sharp’ parlays are two teamers where the side and total in a particular game are related. Sharp bettors will also shoot for big scores betting underdog moneyline parlays, knowing full well that when dogs cover, they have a high probability of winning the game outright.
I have recently noticed in the NFL Handicapping Forum that brahmabull117
a SBR member is on his way to figuring this next type out>
Sharp bettors also get involved with teasers, particularly in the NFL. NFL lines are extremely tight, and the extra six points can make a real difference in more than half of the games. Sharps tease small underdogs up over a touchdown, and tease big favorites down to less than a field goal, a long term profitable strategy.
(*Note: a well disciplined Sharp will never place teaser wagers greater than a two team combination.*)
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Part 2
SHARPS vs.squares:in action form>
Below are five real examples of sharps VS.squares wager&line movement action to show you the advantage sharps have over the squares>
The sharp vs. square debate rages on in Las Vegas and offshore. John Ross, a Las Vegas oddsmaker, is keeping score between the betting public and the wiseguys as he takes action throughout the week.
Ross is keeping records of the five biggest moves each week and how the pros and joes fare for an entire football season.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida State@Clemson
Saturday, September 24, 2011 3:30 PM
Opened: Clemson +3, Closed: Clemson -2
This was as much injury steam as it was a bad number that crashed this pointspread. With Florida State QB EJ Manuel rumored to be out, wiseguys flocked to the Tigers as a home dog in this flat spot for FSU with the likelihood of a backup QB making his first start on the conference highway.
The price continued to plummet throughout the week as more and more Noles appeared on the injury report. Late money came in on FSU from folks looking to middle the game which never really had a shot. However, late FSU money doesn’t take away from the big move that helped wiseguys cash Clemson +3 tickets rather easily.
Clemson 35, Florida State 30
Winner: Sharps
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Nevada@Texas Tech
Saturday, September 24, 2011 7:00 PM
Opened: Texas Tech -21, Closed: Texas Tech -15
The biggest line move of the week dropped six full points from the opening to closing price. Usually, wiseguys stop hammering a number after it moves 2-3 points across key numbers (21, 17, etc). But this scenario was much different as they bet the game consistently from start to finish.
We continued to take wiseguy bets no matter how much the price moved and apparently for good reason. Texas Tech never led by more than seven and the Wolf Pack got to the window for sharp gamblers with relative ease even having a chance to win the game outright as huge underdogs.
Texas Tech 35, Nevada 34
Winner: Sharps
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Nebraska@Wyoming
Saturday, September 24, 2011 7:30 PM
Opened: Nebraska -24, Closed: Nebraska -20.5
From a situational standpoint, wiseguys saw value in Wyoming catching a little over three scores versus Nebraska at home. The Cornhuskers defense was porous in its previous two games, so sharp money latched onto the +24 and drove it down over a field goal.
This contest was a perfect example of why it’s imperative for professionals to get the best of the number. If you didn’t grab the 24 and insure yourself at least a push, you ended up a few points short because of a missed Wyoming field goal.
Every sharp will tell you that if you can’t get the best of the number, a game isn’t worth playing. Given what unfolded in Wyoming, the best-case scenario for Cowboys backers was a push with even those gamblers grabbing 23.5 late taking it on the chin.
Nebraska 38, Wyoming 14
Winner: Squares
This is why more seasoned SHARPS jump on opening lines because for these guys this game was a push which is always a win on this situation.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Missouri@Oklahoma
Saturday, September 24, 2011 8:00 PM
Opened: OU -21.5, Closed: OU -19.5
This game showed very interesting line movement throughout the week. It wasn’t until kickoff Saturday evening that the casual gambler was better able to understand the move. Oklahoma climbed as high as -22.5 before the bottom fell out when sharp money knew OU’s second receiving threat, Kenny Stills, was going to miss the game with a head injury (price started to dip Thursday).
The general public and sports information services never knew about his status prior to kickoff, proving another example of why the wiseguys betting opinion is always respected. The general public rarely wants to fade the elite teams and it was sharp money that latched onto an undervalued Missouri side. The nearly three-TD dog never found itself outside the number all night.
Oklahoma 38, Missouri 28
Winner: Sharps
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL sample>
N.Y. Jets@Oakland
Sunday, September 25, 2011 4:05 PM
Opened: New York -3.5, Closed: New York -2.5
Any time a line moves from 3.5 to 3 in the NFL, it’s worth paying attention too. Oakland took that one step further, opening at +3.5 and closing at +2.5, with a full point move across a key number. For a NFL price to move that much, it takes deep pockets and the sharp money clearly knew what it was doing. The Raiders looked like the better team right from the start and, after watching for 60 minutes, made a compelling case for being the favorite.
Keep in mind, anytime you see a spread move across a key number without any buyback, it’s a line move that you won’t find much success fading. If you’re in the market of tailing steam, however, don’t be the guy grabbing 2.5 only to watch the game fall at three.
Oakland 34, N.Y. Jets 24
Winner: Sharps
Score: Sharps 4, Squares 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now that you have a better understanding on the overall SHARP terminology, you have a much greater opportunity of becoming SHARP yourself or at least you now have the basic tools to know what to look for so in the immediate future you can follow the SHARP side of the plays.
I choose not to label myself SHARP or square because truthfully I am neither of the two,I march to the beat of my own drum so to speak, actually back in the day I used to have a self explaining title in my signature option that was embedded on each and every post I made and if you read my posts you could not miss it, which read something like this.>
"I am neither Square nor Sharp I am Me I am...."
Good luck
PAULYPOKER
PS
I will post the *"sharpest play"* on today's card in a short while so stay tuned!
*Note there is no guarantee this play will cash in for you but it is the *"sharpest play"* of the day having a significant advantage over the other play choices.
Below I will focus on supplying you guys with information on the Sharps, mostly because SHARPS are the most profitable sports investors in the long run if they are well disciplined with money management skills.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part1
Just some of many SHARP types in theory>>>>
There are several types of sharp bettors that bookmakers have to contend with. There are sharp bettors who handicap extremely well over the long term, particularly adept at beating college football and college hoops. These bettors find ways to access information that the bookmakers simply don’t have time to research, They can see matchup advantages on the field and/or situational advantages in the locker room as well or better than the bookies, giving them a huge advantage in a pair of sports where the lines maker must put out pointspreads on literally dozens of games that they know little about. When you see a three point line move on a college basketball game between Drexel and Georgia State, and the game still wins by a comfortable margin, you know that the sharps had the right information, and the right side.
Another type of sharp bettor relies on excellent betting techniques. These guys aren’t traditional handicappers in any sense of the word, but they are extraordinarily well versed in market economies, many with strong math backgrounds. Using reduced juice wagering and a strong understanding of likely line moves, these bettors can turn a modest 53% or 54% long term winning percentage into a substantial profit by always getting the best of the number while laying less juice than everybody else.
Then there are the professional betting syndicates, groups made famous by legendary bettors like Billy Walters and the Computer Group back in the 1980’s. The syndicates utilize their own predictive computer programming skills to identify weak pointspreads, betting accordingly. These groups tend to stay well below the radar screen, looking to stay out of the limelight as much as possible.
When these sharp bettors place their wagers, the marketplace reacts quickly. The von test (fictional name) screen is a staple for most serious bettors. It’s pricey, but it’s also one of the only sources for dozens and dozens of live odds from multiple books. When the von test (fictional name) screen ‘goes black’ on a particular game, that means that one of the betting groups has made a play. We saw situations like this many times,(example)> as the screen went black on LSU over Notre Dame , wiping out all the LSU -7 and -7.5 that was out there. Within ten minutes, the prevailing line was LSU -8.5.
Sharp money moves all week long. Early week line moves in football and overnight line moves in basketball are exclusively the territory of sharps, as few, if any, square bettors bet before gameday. One of the biggest misconceptions that I see among sports betting writers is the thought that square bettors move lines on a consistent basis prior to gameday. Quite frankly, that is completely wrong – there are no ‘public’ line moves more than 24 hours before kickoff or tip-off.
It’s easy to tell the difference between a sharp and a square line move. Sharp moves turn the von test (fictional name) screen black; square moves trickle from sportsbook to sportsbook throughout the day. Anyone with a live odds program can tell the difference immediately.
Sharp bettors tend to play at reduced juice shops . Square bettors tend to play at well advertised shops . Both book types are perfectly solvent, but they simply market to different audiences. Savvy bettors will have accounts at both type of places and many more shops as well, doing their darndest to bet into the best number for their wager, regardless of where the bet is placed. There are sharp bettors in Las Vegas who are willing to drive an hour or more to outlying locations just to get a half point better than they can find here in town.
Sharp bettors are more than willing to bet parlays and teasers, in contrast to how they have been portrayed. But, unlike square bettors, sharp bettors are going to bet parlays only when they are getting the best of the number. Many ‘sharp’ parlays are two teamers where the side and total in a particular game are related. Sharp bettors will also shoot for big scores betting underdog moneyline parlays, knowing full well that when dogs cover, they have a high probability of winning the game outright.
I have recently noticed in the NFL Handicapping Forum that brahmabull117
a SBR member is on his way to figuring this next type out>Sharp bettors also get involved with teasers, particularly in the NFL. NFL lines are extremely tight, and the extra six points can make a real difference in more than half of the games. Sharps tease small underdogs up over a touchdown, and tease big favorites down to less than a field goal, a long term profitable strategy.
(*Note: a well disciplined Sharp will never place teaser wagers greater than a two team combination.*)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part 2
SHARPS vs.squares:in action form>
Below are five real examples of sharps VS.squares wager&line movement action to show you the advantage sharps have over the squares>
The sharp vs. square debate rages on in Las Vegas and offshore. John Ross, a Las Vegas oddsmaker, is keeping score between the betting public and the wiseguys as he takes action throughout the week.
Ross is keeping records of the five biggest moves each week and how the pros and joes fare for an entire football season.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida State@Clemson
Saturday, September 24, 2011 3:30 PM
Opened: Clemson +3, Closed: Clemson -2
This was as much injury steam as it was a bad number that crashed this pointspread. With Florida State QB EJ Manuel rumored to be out, wiseguys flocked to the Tigers as a home dog in this flat spot for FSU with the likelihood of a backup QB making his first start on the conference highway.
The price continued to plummet throughout the week as more and more Noles appeared on the injury report. Late money came in on FSU from folks looking to middle the game which never really had a shot. However, late FSU money doesn’t take away from the big move that helped wiseguys cash Clemson +3 tickets rather easily.
Clemson 35, Florida State 30
Winner: Sharps
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nevada@Texas Tech
Saturday, September 24, 2011 7:00 PM
Opened: Texas Tech -21, Closed: Texas Tech -15
The biggest line move of the week dropped six full points from the opening to closing price. Usually, wiseguys stop hammering a number after it moves 2-3 points across key numbers (21, 17, etc). But this scenario was much different as they bet the game consistently from start to finish.
We continued to take wiseguy bets no matter how much the price moved and apparently for good reason. Texas Tech never led by more than seven and the Wolf Pack got to the window for sharp gamblers with relative ease even having a chance to win the game outright as huge underdogs.
Texas Tech 35, Nevada 34
Winner: Sharps
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nebraska@Wyoming
Saturday, September 24, 2011 7:30 PM
Opened: Nebraska -24, Closed: Nebraska -20.5
From a situational standpoint, wiseguys saw value in Wyoming catching a little over three scores versus Nebraska at home. The Cornhuskers defense was porous in its previous two games, so sharp money latched onto the +24 and drove it down over a field goal.
This contest was a perfect example of why it’s imperative for professionals to get the best of the number. If you didn’t grab the 24 and insure yourself at least a push, you ended up a few points short because of a missed Wyoming field goal.
Every sharp will tell you that if you can’t get the best of the number, a game isn’t worth playing. Given what unfolded in Wyoming, the best-case scenario for Cowboys backers was a push with even those gamblers grabbing 23.5 late taking it on the chin.
Nebraska 38, Wyoming 14
Winner: Squares
This is why more seasoned SHARPS jump on opening lines because for these guys this game was a push which is always a win on this situation.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Missouri@Oklahoma
Saturday, September 24, 2011 8:00 PM
Opened: OU -21.5, Closed: OU -19.5
This game showed very interesting line movement throughout the week. It wasn’t until kickoff Saturday evening that the casual gambler was better able to understand the move. Oklahoma climbed as high as -22.5 before the bottom fell out when sharp money knew OU’s second receiving threat, Kenny Stills, was going to miss the game with a head injury (price started to dip Thursday).
The general public and sports information services never knew about his status prior to kickoff, proving another example of why the wiseguys betting opinion is always respected. The general public rarely wants to fade the elite teams and it was sharp money that latched onto an undervalued Missouri side. The nearly three-TD dog never found itself outside the number all night.
Oklahoma 38, Missouri 28
Winner: Sharps
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL sample>
N.Y. Jets@Oakland
Sunday, September 25, 2011 4:05 PM
Opened: New York -3.5, Closed: New York -2.5
Any time a line moves from 3.5 to 3 in the NFL, it’s worth paying attention too. Oakland took that one step further, opening at +3.5 and closing at +2.5, with a full point move across a key number. For a NFL price to move that much, it takes deep pockets and the sharp money clearly knew what it was doing. The Raiders looked like the better team right from the start and, after watching for 60 minutes, made a compelling case for being the favorite.
Keep in mind, anytime you see a spread move across a key number without any buyback, it’s a line move that you won’t find much success fading. If you’re in the market of tailing steam, however, don’t be the guy grabbing 2.5 only to watch the game fall at three.
Oakland 34, N.Y. Jets 24
Winner: Sharps
Score: Sharps 4, Squares 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now that you have a better understanding on the overall SHARP terminology, you have a much greater opportunity of becoming SHARP yourself or at least you now have the basic tools to know what to look for so in the immediate future you can follow the SHARP side of the plays.
I choose not to label myself SHARP or square because truthfully I am neither of the two,I march to the beat of my own drum so to speak, actually back in the day I used to have a self explaining title in my signature option that was embedded on each and every post I made and if you read my posts you could not miss it, which read something like this.>
"I am neither Square nor Sharp I am Me I am...."
Good luck
PAULYPOKER
PS
I will post the *"sharpest play"* on today's card in a short while so stay tuned!
*Note there is no guarantee this play will cash in for you but it is the *"sharpest play"* of the day having a significant advantage over the other play choices.
