Illinois -10 seems too high me. NW is getting Persa back for this game & they've had an extra week to prepare for the Illini. Add in the fact that NW usually plays them close, 8-3 ATS the past 11. NW is always a live dog & I can't see Illinois covering the number here. Thoughts?
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As someone who grew in Champaign and went to school at Northwestern, I am very familiar with both these teams. Particularly for NU, this game is a huge game and likely their most important game on the schedule, year in and year out. In the past, ILL never viewed NU as the same type of rival and typically that translated to Northwestern wins (4 in row before last year). However, somewhat arrogant comments made by Fitzgerald regarding the character of the ILL players ("We recruit a different type of kid..." etc.) combined with the Wrigley atmosphere resulted in a true beatdown last year as ILL dominated the game, racking up over 500 yds of rushing.
Obviously, this is a different year, but I can guarantee that ILL will be ready to play again this year (The longer Fitz is at NU, the more arrogant he seems to ILL and the more ILL wants to beat NU). Illinois should dominate on the ground again (14th nationally in rushing yds...while Northwestern is 104th nationally defending the run). Obviously, this can be helped through Persa--as, when healthy, he is as efficient a dink and dunk type passer as there is in the country. Question is---how ready is Persa? Ill has a very good defense, but pass D is most definitely their weakness.
Looking at results alone, it would sure seem that ILL will dominate this game (IL has beaten Arizona St--Northwestern barely won @Boston College, lost @Army). However, with NU coming off the bye week and regaining Persa--I tend to think the 10 pt spread is fairly good. If you believe Persa will return and be the same player he was last year in his 1st game back, by all means--bet it. Even with Persa at full strength, I still don't think the Wildcats can win in Champaign. However, they would very likely cover the spread......Personally, I'm laying off this line.Comment
