The Advantages of Wagering Early

letsgo · 09-26-11, 09:14 AM

Yes, it is nice, but an injury or something else that comes up is also extra risk involved with locking in early.

wal66 · 09-26-11, 09:37 AM

QH, it helps to have some clue as to where those lines will be heading though. Someone like myself who is still learning the nuances of how that works or someone completely new to it will have a much harder time with anticipating that accurately.

Early and late definitley provides with multiple middle opportunities at times though.

Good luck with all you do QH.

suicidekings · 09-26-11, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I got these three games at the Wynn last night when the lines first came out:

Ga. Tech -6 at N.C. State
Michigan -19.5 vs Minnesota
Navy -2.5 vs Air Force

All lines are verifiable. This is why it is so critical to have the ability to wager early. None of these lines are available now, though Navy is only up to -3. Wager early and wager late. Forget what happens during the week, for the most part.

And live in Vegas or otherwise have access there. I would have hit the GT line for as much as possible. -11 is less appealing.

Sunde91 · 09-26-11, 02:23 PM

nobody here knew this

suicidekings · 09-26-11, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

nobody here knew this

If you think the majority of forum members are betting early, you're dreaming.

thebestthereis · 09-26-11, 02:30 PM

anyone sharp that has -6 will certainly be gobbling up some +11 as well, great middle

BigdaddyQH · 09-26-11, 02:31 PM

I think that the vast majority of the bettors in this forum wait until the last minute to wager. They tend to "overthink" their wagers and wait to see every little thing that may, or may not happen before they wager. Now if you are talking totals, I can see this. Weather can change just about overnight ain many parts of the country. But as far as sides are concerned, the weather plays a very small part, if any, in the outcome of a game.

Now I will admit that there is some risk involved it wagering early. You must have a very good knowledge of what a line may do. I wanted to wait on wagering on Standord, just to have to give less than 21 points. Right now, the line is down to 19.5 at many Vegas shops. So that worked. It does not haappen that way all of the time though.

CPJFTW · 09-26-11, 02:32 PM

I think -6 GT is your only real win on getting in early this week....I had navy at 2 1/2 this morning, but it switched to -3, so I didn't bother buying back a half point, I think they win by 10...

and I'd love to have that -6....I went in large on -11....

I think they win by 21, so it might not matter, NCST is atrocious, and has a worse defense than Kansas...but -6 to -11 is a big jump I wish I had caught...especially since it's my team.

Just curious, when exactly do these lines hit? I was on at midnight and it was still n/a at Legends...or I would have put my truck and house down on GT at -6...LOL

BigdaddyQH · 09-26-11, 02:36 PM

This is why I have not middled this game, though it is very tempting. I will wait and see just how high this line goes. I think it may climb to near 13.

Sunde91 · 09-26-11, 02:44 PM

that's why I said nobody knew this

There are not many lines a week that will move substantially. Chances for most lines are they move against you as much as they move in your favor. You mostly have no clue. Iowa 2 weeks ago opened -4 and closed -1.5. Nobody in the world could have saw that coming. Clemson +3 and LSU -4 were about the only lines you could guess with pretty good reaosn would move. Most other lines are bets where you're fretting over a .5 point on a 20 point spread that could end up moving 2 points against you come kick (Michigan here perfect example).

antifoil · 09-26-11, 03:48 PM

he is right. it is the reason opening lines have smaller limits. the problem is when a line moves you don't know if the syndicates are coming in heavy on that side with the smaller limits to drive the line down to take a larger position on the other side closer to game time or if they are taking a true position. however, if you are a true winning bettor the line should move in your favor the majority of the time because you have a winning model and the like so getting in earlier is to your advantage.

real sharps are rarely ever on a different side of a game.

suicidekings · 09-26-11, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

that's why I said nobody knew this

There are not many lines a week that will move substantially. Chances for most lines are they move against you as much as they move in your favor. You mostly have no clue. Iowa 2 weeks ago opened -4 and closed -1.5. Nobody in the world could have saw that coming. Clemson +3 and LSU -4 were about the only lines you could guess with pretty good reaosn would move. Most other lines are bets where you're fretting over a .5 point on a 20 point spread that could end up moving 2 points against you come kick (Michigan here perfect example).

Predicting the direction of movement in early season games is not that tough because there are a lot of mistakes early. It gets tougher as the season goes on, and either way it doesn't help you determine who will win the game, but to say that it's impossible to predict the movement is nonsense.

jarvol · 09-26-11, 06:38 PM

I think GaTech at 14 or less is a great play.

Sunde91 · 09-26-11, 07:47 PM

Cause I specifically said it's impossible in that post. I said "most games"

For most games you do not know to any real certainty where the line will go or end up. For some you can predict somewhat. Is this true or false haha

BigdaddyQH · 09-26-11, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

Cause I specifically said it's impossible in that post. I said "most games"

For most games you do not know to any real certainty where the line will go or end up. For some you can predict somewhat. Is this true or false haha

That is false. If you do not have the ability to determine which way a line will go, and how much of a move their will be, then you are in the wrong business. There are 47 lined games at the Wynn and Hilton shops in Vegas. Out of those 47, there has been a line movement of 3+ points in only 9 of those. A rather small percentage. If you make your lines BEFORE the lines are posted on Sunday afternoon, and your lines are accurate, it should be no problem spoting th bad lines and knowing which ones will correct and which ones will not. What is vry important to remember is this. The LVSC makes thse lines way before the lines are actually posted. They make a final "correction" just before the lines are released. They do not guess correctly every time. In all 9 of the lines that have moved drastically this week, the line has either moved in favor of a team that won the previous week, or against a team that lost the previous week. This is not rocket science.

Sunde91 · 09-26-11, 08:53 PM

So are you guys choosing to ignore the part where I say some games are predictable or

3 points is a conclusive move for those 9 games, 9 games still isn't close to MOST GAMES. For MOST GAMES you won't know with certainty where the line will go.

USF -1.5 to -3 to -2 in a 24 hour span
Last week OSU -14.5 to -16.5 to -15.5
Last week Boise -32 to -27
2 weeks ago Nevada -5.5 to -7 to -6
2 weeks ago Tenn -9 to -10 to -9.5 to -10
2 weeks ago Iowa -4 to -1.5 (maybe the most bizarre move of the season so far)
2 weeks ago Wisconsin -16 to -17 to -15

On and on and on. To say you have a FIRM feel for more than 50% of all games you are lying or delusional

xyzky · 09-26-11, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

anyone sharp that has -6 will certainly be gobbling up some +11 as well, great middle

It will likely close at -13 to -14...

tin8shusd · 09-26-11, 09:59 PM

I think it's wise to bet throughout the week before the games on Saturday and Sunday. The opening lines Monday and Tuesday provide great value and by Thursday and Friday there are several games that have gotten off due to the public money coming in. I tend to lock in only picks I find lots of value in early in the week (barring any impending injury updates) and check back late to see if any other games I had my eye on are at the numbers I want them to be at.

Leo Bello · 09-27-11, 04:25 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I got these three games at the Wynn last night when the lines first came out:

Ga. Tech -6 at N.C. State
Michigan -19.5 vs Minnesota
Navy -2.5 vs Air Force

All lines are verifiable. This is why it is so critical to have the ability to wager early. None of these lines are available now, though Navy is only up to -3. Wager early and wager late. Forget what happens during the week, for the most part.

The way they stand as of this moment (2:23 a.m. Vegas time) is Michigan is still 19½, Navy went to 3, but you really made out on Georgia Tech, which is now between 11 and 12 (that's not a middle, that's a canyon). GL!

Sunde91 · 09-28-11, 07:57 PM

so you zeroed in on 3 games and so far you have one beat while the others moved back to where they were after an original half point edge

really know where most lines will move huh