First, I am an admitted Arkansas homer.
That said, information from homers can be valuable too so I am going to put this out there in an effort to put you guys off of a risky affair if you are taking the Tide tomorrow (even the ML).
I went to the University of Arkansas from 97 to 03 and picked up a few engineering degrees along the way. I follow the SEC very closely.
As for Arkansas:
Bobby Petrino has a totally different demeanor than I have ever seen during alabama week during his 3 year tenure at Arkansas. When he arrived at Arkansas, our cupboard was left extremely BARE by the biggest idiot douchebad on the planet named Houston Nutt. Petrino instantly brought a whole new offensive philosophy and instant improvement could be seen by all. There was a very key ingredient missing though and that was SEC caliber players because Houston basically quit recruiting about 3 years before he left.
During Petrinos first year he had to get some offensive weapons and to make the quickest biggest impact he went after bigtime players at the skill positions. Arkansas was a tough sell to recruits at this moment in time so he sold his offense to the people that would listen the most. All that Greg Childs, Joe Adams, Ryan Mallet, Knile Davise, and Jerius Wright had to see was game film from Louisville and they signed up to play. However, he did not have that kind of pull with bigtime SEC caliber Olinemen or Defensive players. So his second season featured a much more productive offense and a poor defense for sure. Most would say that was one of the best recruiting jobs ever because the program was as such a low point and he came in in the middle of the year from Atlanta. After key losses Bobby always said he was proud of his team and that things are heading in the right direction BUT "our kids have to gain the confidence that they can win these big games on the road". They have to believe that they can do it.
Recruiting for year two was much more focused on making the O and D lines much bigger faster and stronger. During this time we picked up very good talent on the offensive line and the entire defense. He still nabbed some stud skill players as well because he will always get those. This third year was much better for Arkansas. After losing to Bama, he did not say his team did not believe they could win anymore, instead he was very irritated because he knew he had the game won barring a terrible late 4th quarter pick thrown by Mallet. Arkansas lost in the Sugar bowl to Ohio State when after charging back in the second half had two miscues on the biggest stage. They blocked a punt and instead of running it in for a td they fell on the ball when nobody else was around. Then Mallet threw his terrible late game pick again when a sure score seemed inevitable. Mallet also got knocked out of the Auburn game but Tyler Wilson stepped in and threw 4 touchdown passes in a failing effort against the soon to be national champions. The defense was still a big weakness but we were a scoring machine.
So Arkansas was two late 4th quarter miscues from being 12-1 Sugar bowl champions last year.
This brings us to this year.
Bobby and Willie (D Coordinator) are saying this is far and away our most talented defense that we have put on the field. Those players that they were able to recruit in year 2 are now more developed and have a year of experience under their belts. Before the troy game I believe they allowed a combined 10 points in 2 games. But what about that Troy game. Arkansas jumped out to a 31-7 lead and everyones attention turned to Bama. Business was taken care of and finally they could focus on the game that they have been preparing for since the end of the sugar bowl last year. Troy runs the spread and is built to score fast if the defense is not on their A game. They had Clemson down at the half the week before.
Greg Childs was not present for the Troy game due to a death in the family. He also had limited looks in the first two games because of caution around his knee surgery from last year. Everyone talks about how big and storng the Bama secondary is but Greg is a man child and could deliver some intimidating blows to defenders during the game tomorrow.
Joe Adams has also had limited reps just to limit exposure to injury risk but when he has been on the field he has been amazing. He already has multiple returns for touchdowns. Partly because he is a freak athlete but also in part because this is Jon L Smiths 3rd season with the Hogs as their special teams coach. Pretty nice to have the former Michigan State coach scheming your special teams for you.
Arkansas will be missing Knile (NOT KNILES) Davis and Stud defensive end Jake Bequette. These are two kids with huge heart. They are both captains on the team so there is no doubt that this hurts Arkansas. That said. Arkansas has the most mature and athletic linebacker corp it has seen in a while with a lot of experience. Chris Smith would be a starting DE for most teams but Jake Bequette is big shoes to fill. I actually see this could work out as a positive in a weird way in that Chris Smith could prove to be a little better against the run than Bequette but he definitely cannot bring the pass rushing heat as Jake.
So this is Bobby's 4th season with the Hogs. Alabama is the only SEC monkey on his back. It is not a secret that his entire staff has been scheming for this game all year long.
Funny note: Saban was talking about the game last year and said that they spent all week preparing to defend the empty backfield that arkansas had run in all three games leading up to Bama. He said that Arkansas did not run a single play with an empty backfield. Saban said, you end up adjusting for those new looks but you can't get back all the hours of preparation you waste trying to predict what Bobby is going to bring at you.
Trent Richardson, the Bama D, and the home venue could be the great equalizer. Their passing game is unproven at this point. i would say it is shaky but you really do not know how good it is because they really have only needed to run the ball. It will be interesting to see how this McCaren kid plays.
Anyways, I usually do not bet on Arkansas very often unless I just really see the value. Last week I posted for people to have confidence in Arkansas for the first half at -13 but not to bet the game line. It hit and the gameline did not hit. This week I will be betting 7-8 units on Arkansas +12 and 1-2 units on Arkansas ML.
Again I am a razorback to the core. I am just putting this information out there to help you guys cap the game a bit. I think this would be a very bad game to put into your ML parlays thinking that Bama is a cant miss. There is significant risk for Bama ML in this game.
But I think the spread is a safe bet. I do think this will be a one possession game when the clock hits triple zeros and it should be exciting to watch from kickoff to kneel down regardless of who wins!
Dirty D
That said, information from homers can be valuable too so I am going to put this out there in an effort to put you guys off of a risky affair if you are taking the Tide tomorrow (even the ML).
I went to the University of Arkansas from 97 to 03 and picked up a few engineering degrees along the way. I follow the SEC very closely.
As for Arkansas:
Bobby Petrino has a totally different demeanor than I have ever seen during alabama week during his 3 year tenure at Arkansas. When he arrived at Arkansas, our cupboard was left extremely BARE by the biggest idiot douchebad on the planet named Houston Nutt. Petrino instantly brought a whole new offensive philosophy and instant improvement could be seen by all. There was a very key ingredient missing though and that was SEC caliber players because Houston basically quit recruiting about 3 years before he left.
During Petrinos first year he had to get some offensive weapons and to make the quickest biggest impact he went after bigtime players at the skill positions. Arkansas was a tough sell to recruits at this moment in time so he sold his offense to the people that would listen the most. All that Greg Childs, Joe Adams, Ryan Mallet, Knile Davise, and Jerius Wright had to see was game film from Louisville and they signed up to play. However, he did not have that kind of pull with bigtime SEC caliber Olinemen or Defensive players. So his second season featured a much more productive offense and a poor defense for sure. Most would say that was one of the best recruiting jobs ever because the program was as such a low point and he came in in the middle of the year from Atlanta. After key losses Bobby always said he was proud of his team and that things are heading in the right direction BUT "our kids have to gain the confidence that they can win these big games on the road". They have to believe that they can do it.
Recruiting for year two was much more focused on making the O and D lines much bigger faster and stronger. During this time we picked up very good talent on the offensive line and the entire defense. He still nabbed some stud skill players as well because he will always get those. This third year was much better for Arkansas. After losing to Bama, he did not say his team did not believe they could win anymore, instead he was very irritated because he knew he had the game won barring a terrible late 4th quarter pick thrown by Mallet. Arkansas lost in the Sugar bowl to Ohio State when after charging back in the second half had two miscues on the biggest stage. They blocked a punt and instead of running it in for a td they fell on the ball when nobody else was around. Then Mallet threw his terrible late game pick again when a sure score seemed inevitable. Mallet also got knocked out of the Auburn game but Tyler Wilson stepped in and threw 4 touchdown passes in a failing effort against the soon to be national champions. The defense was still a big weakness but we were a scoring machine.
So Arkansas was two late 4th quarter miscues from being 12-1 Sugar bowl champions last year.
This brings us to this year.
Bobby and Willie (D Coordinator) are saying this is far and away our most talented defense that we have put on the field. Those players that they were able to recruit in year 2 are now more developed and have a year of experience under their belts. Before the troy game I believe they allowed a combined 10 points in 2 games. But what about that Troy game. Arkansas jumped out to a 31-7 lead and everyones attention turned to Bama. Business was taken care of and finally they could focus on the game that they have been preparing for since the end of the sugar bowl last year. Troy runs the spread and is built to score fast if the defense is not on their A game. They had Clemson down at the half the week before.
Greg Childs was not present for the Troy game due to a death in the family. He also had limited looks in the first two games because of caution around his knee surgery from last year. Everyone talks about how big and storng the Bama secondary is but Greg is a man child and could deliver some intimidating blows to defenders during the game tomorrow.
Joe Adams has also had limited reps just to limit exposure to injury risk but when he has been on the field he has been amazing. He already has multiple returns for touchdowns. Partly because he is a freak athlete but also in part because this is Jon L Smiths 3rd season with the Hogs as their special teams coach. Pretty nice to have the former Michigan State coach scheming your special teams for you.
Arkansas will be missing Knile (NOT KNILES) Davis and Stud defensive end Jake Bequette. These are two kids with huge heart. They are both captains on the team so there is no doubt that this hurts Arkansas. That said. Arkansas has the most mature and athletic linebacker corp it has seen in a while with a lot of experience. Chris Smith would be a starting DE for most teams but Jake Bequette is big shoes to fill. I actually see this could work out as a positive in a weird way in that Chris Smith could prove to be a little better against the run than Bequette but he definitely cannot bring the pass rushing heat as Jake.
So this is Bobby's 4th season with the Hogs. Alabama is the only SEC monkey on his back. It is not a secret that his entire staff has been scheming for this game all year long.
Funny note: Saban was talking about the game last year and said that they spent all week preparing to defend the empty backfield that arkansas had run in all three games leading up to Bama. He said that Arkansas did not run a single play with an empty backfield. Saban said, you end up adjusting for those new looks but you can't get back all the hours of preparation you waste trying to predict what Bobby is going to bring at you.
Trent Richardson, the Bama D, and the home venue could be the great equalizer. Their passing game is unproven at this point. i would say it is shaky but you really do not know how good it is because they really have only needed to run the ball. It will be interesting to see how this McCaren kid plays.
Anyways, I usually do not bet on Arkansas very often unless I just really see the value. Last week I posted for people to have confidence in Arkansas for the first half at -13 but not to bet the game line. It hit and the gameline did not hit. This week I will be betting 7-8 units on Arkansas +12 and 1-2 units on Arkansas ML.
Again I am a razorback to the core. I am just putting this information out there to help you guys cap the game a bit. I think this would be a very bad game to put into your ML parlays thinking that Bama is a cant miss. There is significant risk for Bama ML in this game.
But I think the spread is a safe bet. I do think this will be a one possession game when the clock hits triple zeros and it should be exciting to watch from kickoff to kneel down regardless of who wins!
Dirty D
