Look-Ahead, Let-Down, Trap, unranked team favored, and Fade new #1 spot bettor thread

GoBlue23 · 08-31-11, 01:06 PM

You consider Miami a in a look ahead situation even though they have a bye next week?

HoulihansTX · 08-31-11, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by GoBlue23

You consider Miami a in a look ahead situation even though they have a bye next week?

Poor research there.

GoBlue23 · 08-31-11, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Poor research there.

On my part or yours? Now I am really confused

EDIT: Missed your revision. Question answered

Sniperpicks · 08-31-11, 01:29 PM

miami should be in a " F u world " mentality , i really like the new HC , he could do wonders with that pack of greatly talented mental misfits in south florida

BigdaddyQH · 08-31-11, 03:01 PM

If Michigan cannot cover a 13.5 to 14 point spread against a run of the mill MAC team, they are in big trouble against Notre Dame.

bb_skoots · 08-31-11, 04:28 PM

I would not touch Michigan early in the season, with the new coach and offense.

ExperienceWins · 08-31-11, 05:22 PM

I don't think many teams, especially a well coached team like MS State will look ahead week one at all.

HoulihansTX · 08-31-11, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by ExperienceWins

I don't think many teams, especially a well coached team like MS State will look ahead week one at all.

This is the point of the thread. Speak your opinion, and discuss.

GoBlue23 · 08-31-11, 06:53 PM

Houli - Do you think Notre Dame maybe more in of a look ahead situation than Michigan in regards to next week's matchup? Notre Dame has to travel to Ann Arbor for the first ever night game in the history of the stadium, and Michigan has defeated them the past two years. I would think the revenge minded Notre Dame would be at the very least in the same boat as Michigan in regards to looking ahead.

HoulihansTX · 08-31-11, 07:34 PM

ND is playing a capable opponent, where the other teams listed ared not.

Nationally this gamed has not gotten attention, b/c of all the bad press the NCAA has gotten this year. But this is Skip Holtz return to his alma mater. And his dad, Lou Holtz, is a living legend there. This game is getting its due attention from the competitors, or @ least I expect it too.

I designate teams to be in look ahead spots, when they are playing a unquestionably inferior opponent the week B4 a "BIG" game.

Its an extremely opinionated concept, and to be used with discretion.

GoBlue23 · 09-01-11, 07:40 AM

I agree with your analysis on USF. They are more than capable of beating ND.

I also think that week 1 is the time when look ahead spots impact games/teams the least all year. I think that the 1st game in 8 months is hard to look past...most teams get up because they haven't played in 9 months. Still a factor, just not as big of one as in other weeks. Just my opinion.

thetrinity · 09-01-11, 07:42 AM

agree with miss st and south carolina, not really with the other ones. michigan still is in a home opener with a michigan man that the maize and blue fools will annoint as bo schembechler the 2nd, they wont come out flat. auburn game is bigger to msu then it is to auburn.

the problem with ecu is that a hs team could put up 30 points on them and memphis sucks. this is a good thread but week 1 is the worst for finding these type of games.

thetrinity · 09-01-11, 07:42 AM

also like usf on saturday. BOL this week!

wal66 · 09-01-11, 08:41 AM

I read what you said about playing a quality opponent and therefor not really setting up as a look ahead spot but in the case of Georgia that could be different. True they are opening with a "Top 5" team in Boise St but they have what in terms of how the season is to go a tougher more meaningful game next week with South Carolina.

Not suggesting they will or can afford to look beyond Boise but it is something to at least consider.

Boxer300 · 09-01-11, 09:11 AM

South Carolina will not have any problem with ECU Saturday. They are far and away the better team. With all the hype they are getting they will want to make a statement in their first game. Spurrier is 41-0 against BCS Non-qualifiers including a 15-0 mark at South Carolina with his last win being a 69-24 blowout of Troy(they had a 56-7 lead at halftime and sat on it). Lattimore only got 7 carries but it was enough to eclipse the 100 yard mark against Troy. I also think Skip Holtz leads USF to a big win Saturday and Boise has a good shot at beating UGA.

daneblazer · 09-01-11, 09:17 AM

Texas A&M -15.5 is a trap

HoulihansTX · 09-06-11, 02:51 PM

Week 2
__________________________

LetDown Spots

USF: won SU as a DD road Dog, now laying 21.5 vs Ball St
_______________________

Look Ahead Spots

Arizona: Stanford on deck next week
Stanford: See above
Lousiville: @ Kentucky next week( In State out-of conference rivalry)
Kentucky: See above
Tennesee: vs Florida next week
Florida: See above
Washington: @ Nebraska next week
Nebraska: See above
Northern Illinois: vs Wisky next week
Michigan St.: @ Notre Dame next week
Navy: @ South Carolina
________________________________________ ________

Possible Traps

Navy -10: Never lay points with military academies, and they have South Carolina next week
Mississippi St. -7: Classic overration. Mississppi St. played the worst team in the country, and predictably looked awesome, while Auburn struggled as big favs @home. Auburn was -3.5 on the game of the year lines.
Wisky -21.5: Oregon St. lost SU to Sac St. last week, and are getting points as if they are a Sun belt team. They could show up here, and make a game out of this.
________________________________________ ________

Revenge teams

Air Force
Vanderbilt
Akron
Georgia
Marshall
Wake Forest
Penn St.
Colorado
ECU
Arizona

Home Dogs in Bold

grind4moneyz · 09-06-11, 03:01 PM

I mentioned, Tennesee possibly looking ahead to the Florida game, in another thread. Tennessee faces a solid Cincinnati team this week, that should contend for the Big East this year.

sportcap · 09-06-11, 07:32 PM

Great thread..actullly gets our brains thinking and not just another thread with picks with no thought process...

Oregon State had issues last week..

"OS might be starting 14 first time starters, they are decimated by injuries. OS OL Michael Phillipp asked to redshirt today. If anyone is interested, OS has 3 active tackles on their roster, and one of those is a back-up TE. DT Glover also out."

Was in a bad spot for the upset loss, wonder if they get back to a regular roster next week...

suicidekings · 09-06-11, 08:29 PM

Agreed on Auburn. I've played it at +7 and like them to win outright.

HoulihansTX · 09-06-11, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by sportcap

Great thread..actullly gets our brains thinking and not just another thread with picks with no thought process...

Oregon State had issues last week..

"OS might be starting 14 first time starters, they are decimated by injuries. OS OL Michael Phillipp asked to redshirt today. If anyone is interested, OS has 3 active tackles on their roster, and one of those is a back-up TE. DT Glover also out."

Was in a bad spot for the upset loss, wonder if they get back to a regular roster next week...

did not know that. Interesting that they lost all of those players. Maybe they are too INJ to compete at the moment?

Boxer300 · 09-07-11, 12:42 AM

Haven't had a chance to look at all these games in depth this week but I think this is a solid thread. Keep it going Houli

Wrecktangle · 09-07-11, 07:49 AM

Where we studied this a few years ago, couldn't find any decent advantage to revenge, let-down or traps.

But, BOL anyway.

thebestthereis · 09-07-11, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Agreed on Auburn. I've played it at +7 and like them to win outright.

gotta look that way, last time miss state was favored on the road in the sec was a tug of war with the vanderbilt cheerleaders

chunk · 09-07-11, 09:34 AM

Kudos to Houlihan for making an effort at a constructive thread(don't see many). My 2 cents would be to have posters contribute concerning significant injuries or suspensions. Especially late breaking news or updates. Also when assessing the previous week's action, to point out misleading finals or stats can help when assessing/adjusting team strength. I feel this type of info can be more valuable.

thetrinity · 09-07-11, 10:21 AM

i love this thread. have a few comments.

1. no way arizona is looking past oklahoma st. a national tv game against a top 10 team who destroyed them in a bowl game last year.

2. possible trap: michigan? you could say the same thing you said about miss st and auburn except the line for that game basically ignores last week completely.

3. i believe i saw in another thread that michigan st has failed to cover 10 straight as a favorite the game before they play ND. i dont really buy long term trends, but thats a pretty strong one to ignore.

4. sucks on state, they should have been the play on GOY lines, now the value is gone. still think theres plenty of bad blood and the line is more where it should be, see state winning by 5-10 points.

5. lsu should be on letdown/sandwich alert. huge win vs oregon followed by nw st and at miss st next thursday. one of the worst spots of the season.

sportcap · 09-07-11, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

did not know that. Interesting that they lost all of those players. Maybe they are too INJ to compete at the moment?

Maybe, if so, wisky could blow them out...

Looks like another player out for OSU...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/1248631-oregon-states-agnew-hurt-pound-wisc.html

CBASS · 09-08-11, 05:08 AM

Originally posted by thetrinity

i love this thread. have a few comments.

1. no way arizona is looking past oklahoma st. a national tv game against a top 10 team who destroyed them in a bowl game last year.

2. possible trap: michigan? you could say the same thing you said about miss st and auburn except the line for that game basically ignores last week completely.

3. i believe i saw in another thread that michigan st has failed to cover 10 straight as a favorite the game before they play ND. i dont really buy long term trends, but thats a pretty strong one to ignore.

4. sucks on state, they should have been the play on GOY lines, now the value is gone. still think theres plenty of bad blood and the line is more where it should be, see state winning by 5-10 points.

5. lsu should be on letdown/sandwich alert. huge win vs oregon followed by nw st and at miss st next thursday. one of the worst spots of the season.

How so? NW St. will be like a bye week for LSU. They will be preparing for Miss. St. bro. In no way is LSU 'gameplanning' for NW St.

Boxer300 · 09-08-11, 08:10 AM

LSU's defense will crush NW St.... way too much talent. Not a chance for a letdown here if you ask me.

thetrinity · 09-08-11, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by CBASS

How so? NW St. will be like a bye week for LSU. They will be preparing for Miss. St. bro. In no way is LSU 'gameplanning' for NW St.

obviously we arent gonna bet them on the ml are we? they were in a similar spot against mcneese last year and missed the cover by 20 points. gonna be almost impossible for them to have 100% focus this week, something i happen to look for when i look for teams to ridiculously high spreads.

BettingWizard · 09-08-11, 09:58 AM

Kentucky looking ahead to Louisville

thetrinity · 09-08-11, 10:11 AM

he has that one already wiz

daneblazer · 09-10-11, 07:58 AM

I've heard Florida State will be giving something like 57 against Charleston Southern. They have OU next week.

HoulihansTX · 09-12-11, 01:20 PM

Sept 12 WK 3

Letdown Spot

Toledo- They can not play any harder than they did versus Ohio St., which is their bowl game.
Iowa St.- Outright Home Dog win, vs in-state rival, Iowa.
Auburn- Outright Home Dog win vs in-Conference rival
Michigan- Outright Home Dog win vs Notre Dame
New Mex St. - Outright Double digit road Dog win.
________________________________________ ____________________

Look Ahead

West Virginia- next game @Home vs LSU facing out of conference opponent
Iowa St. - Next game @Home vs Texas facing out of conference opponent
Pittsburgh- Next game Home vs Notre Dame
Michigan- Current head Coach, will face former coached team next week.
Northwestern- @Illinois next week, while cirrently facing an out-of-conference
opponent
San Diego St.- Facing former head coach nesxt week @Michigan.
Arizona St.- facing USC next week.
Kansas St.- @ Miami(FL) next Week
Oklahoma St. - @ Texas A&M next week currently facing inferior out of conference opponent.
UCF- @BYU next week
________________________________________ _________________________

Teams looking for Revenge

Mississippi St.- Home Dog looking for revenge
Toledo- Blown out last year @ Boise
Maryland- Lost @ WVU as 11.5pt Dog
Clemson - Lost on last second FG @ Auburn last year.
Temple - Lost a semi competitive(game was closer than score) @Penn St. possible ML bet.
Western Mich- Lost @CMU as 3.5pt Dog
Ole Miss- Lost @Home to Vandy. Embarrassing by 2 TD's
Georgia Tech- Lost @Kansas last year as 14 pt favs.
Colo St. - lost on neutral by 21pts
Tenn. last as 14.5 pt home Dogs @Home