vegas is getting sharper earlier in the year

[thetrinity]

be careful with mississippi st and especially missouri.

a lot of the early big chalk took it to the head last year (fla v miami ohio, texas v rice (was on rice actually), utah st v oklahoma, 3 of the most popular ones i saw, could also throw in usc v hawaii, a game in which hawaii outgained the trojans)

2 years back i remember a lot of the popular mid chalk got crushed: troy v bowling green, illinois v missouri, nc st v southcarolina (a hugely popular pick even tho it looks like a misprint now, i did have nc st for the record), minnesota v syracuse (min won in ot against greg paulus LOL, i had syracuse), and the trendy dog oregon also fell at boise.

just doesnt seem that week 1 is quite the feeding frenzy it was in past times. obviously favorites still cover about half the time but i encourage everyone to do their research and not just piggyback cuz they see everyone on mississippi st and missouri.

i wanna be clear im not talking chalk in general, im talking more popular chalk plays. i happen to think purdues a good chalk play in week 1.

[NSN21]

Good thoughts. I like Purdue as well. I expect to play on them quite a bit early on. Their defense alone may cover that number.

[thetrinity]

agreed think purdue will be much improved. mtsu prob a step back.

personally, i think mississippi st is in a bad scheduling spot although memphis doesnt even belong on the same field as them. they have a massive payback game against auburn coming up the week after.

[daprospecta]

I am just an average capper that gets better every year. This is year 3 for me so take what I say with a grain of salt. Mississippi State is a horrible play in my opinion. Yes Memphis is bad and yes Mississippi State is improving but they have problems putting a lot of points on the board. I don't think this is a game you can bet on with confidence in week one.

[thetrinity]

I am just an average capper that gets better every year. This is year 3 for me so take what I say with a grain of salt. Mississippi State is a horrible play in my opinion. Yes Memphis is bad and yes Mississippi State is improving but they have problems putting a lot of points on the board. I don't think this is a game you can bet on with confidence in week one.

unless they play michigan you are right.

terrible spot in any rate for state. memphis has the advantage of not being beaten down yet and plays there biggest game of the year at home on national tv while mississippi state is actually in a rare look ahead game in week 1. gun to my head id take memphis, probably will pass on this game, barring the line completely soaring and some degenerate have to bet the first day action.

[M.W.]

I am just an average capper that gets better every year. This is year 3 for me so take what I say with a grain of salt. Mississippi State is a horrible play in my opinion. Yes Memphis is bad and yes Mississippi State is improving but they have problems putting a lot of points on the board.

State has trouble putting points on the board because of the quality of the SEC defenses they face. In non-conference games last year, State scored 49 (Memphis), 49 (Alcorn), 47 (Houston), 29 (UAB), and 52 (Michigan).