Great Coaching Analysis.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Found these guys today. I usually troll around these forums with nothing worthwhile to post about. But this is the first I have ever seen anyone aggregate gambling results (or any concrete stats really) on coaches.


They have a cool 'Gamblers Corner' that has an unreal coach breakdown ATS/SU/Over/Under. Pretty cool stuff. If this is the wrong forum, I apologize in advance. Just message me and I'll repost where appropriate.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

I guess the link got eaten.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Here is a sample of their 'Gambling Coach Profile'. Pretty cool.

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/coach-gambling-profile/?coach=Jim+Tressel

[Wrecktangle]

Link has some nice, useful analysis. I'll compare to my data sets. Thanks.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Looks like they created a 'Gamblers Corner'. Really neat.

[chunk]

Just bookmarked the site. Thanks.

[MartinBlank]

Wow.

The site has Lane Kiffin ranked ahead of guys like Mike Riley, Gene Chizik, Butch Davis, Brian Kelly, Bill Snyder.

Kiffin hasn't done dick----ever, who would rank him ahead of those guys? For cripes sake.

[Inkwell77]

I was surprised by the Riley ranking.

There is no way that Tedford is a better coach than Riley.

[MartinBlank]

Their coaching rankings are fukked up and they are borderline retarded.

Dabo F'in Swinney as the 24th best coach in the country? Are they insane, drunk or stupid? Do tell---what the fukk has Clemson done that would make anyone think Dabo can coach?

My favorite though may be Frank Spaziani at 33. He hasn't won a bowl game or appeared in an ACC title game yet---but that site ranks him ahead of Paul Johnson who took GT to the Orange Bowl and an ACC championship AND Jim Grobe at Wake who also won an ACC Title and has been in the Orange Bowl.

Oh, and Dabo is also ranked ahead of ND's Brian Kelly-----who took Cincy to an undefeated regular seaon, has more bowl wins than Dabo and a career winning % that is 20 points higher than Dabo. What a joke.

What exactly has Jimbo Fisher done as a head coach that would make anyone think he is the 7th best head coach in the game right now?

Chip Kelly still hasn't done what Nick Saban has-------Saban has won a NC at two different schools, and is still ranked below Chip Kelly.

And Brett Bielema is better than Gary Patterson? Says who? Patterson just beat him in the Rose Bowl.

[chunk]

I guess that it must be human nature to be enamored with rankings and ratings,but I don't see many that are worth a damn. As far as magazines, websites, or any other information source goes, I believe the primary goal should be to disseminate the information and incorporate it into your own methods when applicable.

[cant call it]

Chip Kelly = not #1
Jimbo Fischer = not #7
Mike stoops, swinney, kiffen shouldn't even be on the list.

[MartinBlank]

It gets better.

Where is June Jones? Alot of people who know college football would consider Jones to be a top 20-ish coach because of what he has done at Hawaii and SMU-----and I don't even see him in the top 50.

Al Golden takes Temple----a cesspool----and takes them to a conference championship and their first bowl game in almost 30 years----and he can't get a sniff in the top 50.

I don't mind lists like these so long as they are at least close.

Saban is tops---bar none. Stoops would be next, and then you can make a case for Gary Patterson or Chris Petersen.

Having Chip Kelly ranked first when he lost to Chizik in the NC game makes absolutely no sense. Chizik---who I think got shitty lucky with Newton-----shouldn't be ranked in the top 10 either----but Kelly needs to actually win a bowl game before you can place him above Saban or Stoops.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Golden. Really?

From that website:

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/is-al-golden-really-rich-brooks-with-a-tie/

He is smoke and mirrors. Also, the site ranks the coaches by a formula. Not subjectively.

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/about/about-the-coaches-ratings/

They just look at the numbers. They don't put their opinions into things. From a gambling standpoint, their data is top notch. I've never seen anything like it.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

As for June Jones.

He ranks #1 on one of their rankings: http://coachesbythenumbers.com/coach...s/?reportId=15

[BoiseAndTheOver]

They have 30 different rankings so that you can make your own decision and view coaches through several different prisms.



I recently got a subscription. FYI.

[MartinBlank]

Golden. Really?

From that website:

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/is-al-golden-really-rich-brooks-with-a-tie/

He is smoke and mirrors. Also, the site ranks the coaches by a formula. Not subjectively.

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/about/about-the-coaches-ratings/

They just look at the numbers. They don't put their opinions into things. From a gambling standpoint, their data is top notch. I've never seen anything like it.

Sorry to hear that you paid for that kind of information.

As for its content.....Of course it is subjective.

It took me all of 9 seconds to realize the flaw in their "formula". The rankings use average ppg, turnover margin, and penalites in their calculations. A coach with a brief career (2 years) with a very good offense can manage to create numbers that would rank them ahead of guys who have had longer, more successful careers----yet may have had lower scoring offenses over that time.

In other words, a relatively new coach who put up a tons of points in a successful season----will be ranked ahead of a guy who has accomplished more. That is exactly how Chip Kelly managed to get ranked ahead of Nick Saban.

However....there is no qualitative value for winning things like national championships and recruiting over a period of time.

Any formula created that ranks Dabo Swinney 24th, Jimbo Fisher 7th, and places Chip Kelly ahead of Nick Saban is inherently flawed.

Coaches are measured by one component only. Wins. Period.

And, tell me exactly what criteria could ever be used that would rank Chip Kelly ahead of Nick Saban?

Let me ask you something, if you were starting your own Top-25 coaching list, are you really telling me Dabo Swinney would be your 24th best coach?

Or Jimbo Fisher would be #7?

Come on. Get serious.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Question. Who has the higher winning percentage? Nick Saban or Chip Kelly? Chip Kelly has won a conference title and a BCS bowl bid in every year he has coached.

[suicidekings]

Wow.

The site has Lane Kiffin ranked ahead of guys like Mike Riley, Gene Chizik, Butch Davis, Brian Kelly, Bill Snyder.

Kiffin hasn't done dick----ever, who would rank him ahead of those guys? For cripes sake.

Reading some of their articles, they try to isolate the coach's impact on the team based on more than just how good the team's record is. Good coaches on teams with weak talent can still rank highly if they make more of what they have available than an average coach would. So really this site is only useful in predicting the impact a coach will have with a new team, or if his existing team undergoes drastic changes in their available talent pool.

I can appreciate looking at the coaching breakdowns for fun, but ultimately the team's talent and on-field performance are much more important metrics to base any decisions on. Not a particularly useful site, IMO.

[MartinBlank]

Question. Who has the higher winning percentage? Nick Saban or Chip Kelly? Chip Kelly has won a conference title and a BCS bowl bid in every year he has coached.

That is a ridiculous statement.

Saban has won more National Titles than Kelly has won Bowl Games.

In fact, the last 2 years----Saban is 2-0 in BCS games, including the NC game, while Kelly is 0-2.

You were saying?

[BoiseAndTheOver]

I was saying, how can you create a formula based on win that ranks one over the other when one's winning percentage is higher? It's impossible. If it is by total wins, then JoePa is #1. If only National Championships count, then, the what, 2 active coaches that have rings will be ranked #1 and #2 and everyone is tied for #3?

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Here's how cool that site is..

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/coach-rankings/?reportId=1&c2009=on&c2010=on&activeOnly=on&minimumExperience=1&conferenceSelect=All&onlyConferenceYears=on&customizeViewSubmitted=Update+Ranking

Boom. There is your ranking of ALL coaches over the span of JUST 2009 and 2010. Look who is number 1. Nick Saban. Again, the site allows you to slice and dice it ANY way you want.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Oh...you think Chip and Dabo and Fisher don't count? Fine. Let's change the minimum years coached to 3 instead of 1.

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/coach-rankings/?reportId=1&c2001=on&c2002=on&c2003=on&c2004=on&c2005=on&c2006=on&c2007=on&c2008=on&c2009=on&c2010=on&activeOnly=on&minimumExperience=3&conferenceSelect=All&onlyConferenceYears=on&customizeViewSubmitted=Update+Ranking

Boom again.

[suicidekings]

Oh...you think Chip and Dabo and Fisher don't count? Fine. Let's change the minimum years coached to 3 instead of 1.

http://coachesbythenumbers.com/coach-rankings/?reportId=1&c2001=on&c2002=on&c2003=on&c2004=on&c2005=on&c2006=on&c2007=on&c2008=on&c2009=on&c2010=on&activeOnly=on&minimumExperience=3&conferenceSelect=All&onlyConferenceYears=on&customizeViewSubmitted=Update+Ranking

Boom again.

All 11 posts you've made at SBR are in this thread. Do you own or work for this website? You seem very passionate about selling it's features and intent on disproving criticisms.

[MartinBlank]

Oh, he's a shill for the website no doubt.

Did you notice how he mentioned how he paid for a subscription?

And, while I think lists like this are nice-------you can get a majority of this information for free from other websites.

[suicidekings]

Oh, he's a shill for the website no doubt. Did you notice how he mentioned how he paid for a subscription? And, while I think lists like this are nice-------you can get a majority of this information for free from other websites.

Absolutely. I was just curious if he would admit to it and continue to argue for the site's value, or just disappear after being called out on the clumsy and dishonest sales tactics.

[MartinBlank]

Absolutely. I was just curious if he would admit to it and continue to argue for the site's value, or just disappear after being called out on the clumsy and dishonest sales tactics.

When he started to provide all those links showing the site's functionality----it took one of those weird "Sham Wow" turns. All he needed was the studio audience's clapping to make it the perfect SBR infomercial.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Really. There is no way to prove whether i am or aren't a shill for the site. It's pointless. However, Martin, pray tell, what is the other website that I can get this data?

[MartinBlank]

Seriously?

Let's start with college football data warehouse. They have the record of every single coach who has ever coached an NCAA game at any level available.

And then they have every single statistical category you could want to handicap games-----

Oh yeah---by the way--IT IS FREE.

http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/coaching/coach_records.php

Stassen's website is also really good----for historical data, comparison of teams, and plenty of FREE links...

http://football.stassen.com/

If you want a great website that has just about every ounces of information you want or need-----FREE

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/index.asp

And Phil Steele's site is also absolutely FREE-----and you can get just about every ounce of information you need from his team pages...

http://philsteele.com/FBSInfo/TeamPages/teampgsmain.html

All of these sites can in one way or another, all you to determine a coach's record, his performance against the line, his offensive output, his defensive performance---anything you want.

You just need to know how to link what it is you are looking for and find it. But the bottom line is you do not have to pay for any of this information.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

It's worthless. All the CFB Datawarehouse has are game results (not even box scores) and a coach's wins and losses. You don't know the spread in the that game. What the over was. They have nothing on the Offensive Coordinators and Defensive Coordinators. I guess they don't matter? It is simply just an biographic account of the games. I need more than that when I'm betting. I don't know about you.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Real quick...what is Nick Saban's record against Houston Nutt? How did the games go ATS? It may be important when they play. I can tell you in 2 seconds.

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Like I said. I can find a complete head to head coach matchup in 2 seconds. View all of the vitals for all 40 games in a week.

Or...I could spend 3 days wrangling all the data together from the 4 website you listed...and waste HOURS of time. I'll spend the $6 a MONTH and let them do all the heavy lifting.

If that is your methodology, you've already lost.

[MartinBlank]

Like I said. I can find a complete head to head coach matchup in 2 seconds. View all of the vitals for all 40 games in a week.

Or...I could spend 3 days wrangling all the data together from the 4 website you listed...and waste HOURS of time. I'll spend the $6 a MONTH and let them do all the heavy lifting.

If that is your methodology, you've already lost.

You can't be this dumb or this obvious-------

What person in their right mind focuses on coaching head/head records as the PRIMARY criteria when handicapping a game?

And what happens when two teams are meeting for the first time?

Tell me what good your coaching site is going to do when Florida plays Tennessee this year?

Or when Ohio State plays Penn State? Or how about when West Virginia plays Pitt?

The sample size provides by Muschamp, Fickell, and Holgerson are going to be absolutely meaningless.

Can your website tell me which teams struggle defending the spread? Which ones don't? How about which teams switched schemes this year? Which teams have to highest percentages of returning offensive starts? or offensive skill yards returning? Can I see 3rd down pass efficiency rankings of every team? Can I see which teams are best on 3rd downs? How about which teams historically start out hot? or which teams historically struggle in November? Can I find which teams lost the largest percentages of yards, OL starts, and DL starts to graduation, suspension or the NFL draft? Which teams have recruited the best the last 3-4 years? How about which teams have the largest number of 5th year seniors with more than 10 starts returning? How about which team has the most experience at QB returning? Which teams have the best special teams?

But hey---you keep plugging your website........

A f'in worthless website that manages to rank Dabo Swinney---with a career record of 19-15 and 1-2 in Bowl Games as the 24th best coach in the country.......

Nice site you have there---but hey, at least you can tell everyone what Swinney's record is head to head against Paul Johnson---

[BoiseAndTheOver]

Really? Muschamp was a DC for 9 years before becoming a coach. They track coordinators. Same for Holgorson. Fickell...well, no one knows wtf he is going to do. I know how Holgorson is ATS in games he was a coordinator. I know his O/U in those games. Is that worthless to you?

This is your typical guy who can't admin he is wrong in a forum. It's okay. I don't care. Like you said, I obviously own this website and have nothing else to do than be in the forum. Does that make any sense to you? How many users are in this forum right now? 10? If I did start or own the website, why on earth would I be here?

[MartinBlank]

Really? Muschamp was a DC for 9 years before becoming a coach. They track coordinators. Same for Holgorson. Fickell...well, no one knows wtf he is going to do. I know how Holgorson is ATS in games he was a coordinator. I know his O/U in those games. Is that worthless to you?

This is your typical guy who can't admin he is wrong in a forum. It's okay. I don't care. Like you said, I obviously own this website and have nothing else to do than be in the forum. Does that make any sense to you? How many users are in this forum right now? 10? If I did start or own the website, why on earth would I be here?

No one said you owned it----we said you were a shill for it.

And what better way to drum up business than throw it up on a gambling forum? Seriously, did you really ask me why on earth you would be here? Do you realize the traffic SBR generates among gamblers--and just by coincidence----you happen to link a site that has a "Gambler's Corner" on it. Shocking.

I will ask this again because you passed over it so conveniently.

Can your website tell me which teams struggle defending the spread? Which ones don't? How about which teams switched schemes this year? Which teams have to highest percentages of returning offensive starts? or offensive skill yards returning? Can I see 3rd down pass efficiency rankings of every team? Can I see which teams are best on 3rd downs? How about which teams historically start out hot? or which teams historically struggle in November? Can I find which teams lost the largest percentages of yards, OL starts, and DL starts to graduation, suspension or the NFL draft? Which teams have recruited the best the last 3-4 years? How about which teams have the largest number of 5th year seniors with more than 10 starts returning? How about which team has the most experience at QB returning? Which teams have the best special teams?

[BoiseAndTheOver]

To be fair. No website has all of that data. Not even one tenth of it.