jump on it fast. pinny went to 8 this morning.... don't lose out on a winner
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Convincing write-up thanks. You made taking the Red Raiders that much easier. Good luckComment -
Originally posted by PerfecTrader
good luck to you too.
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you guys go bet Texas Tech...Comment -
yesterday all the underdogs won, but today is a new dayComment -
Originally posted by fishtot
no doubt. i'm not expecting an outright win. but i'm taking the 9 points.Comment -
since persa has been out, theyve been horrible on offenseComment -
"SATURDAY-NEW YEAR'S DAY
TICKET CITY CLASSIC: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern
Texas Tech was bet from -8.5 up to -9.5, but nine is a dead number in football, so that's not really a big move. It didn't go all the way to -10, which is important. I think more sharps would have jumped on the dog at +10 just because Tech's defense is so soft. Here we're seeing the Tech support show early, while the Northwestern support is waiting for a better number. The total is up a point from 59.5 to 60.5. Remember that this is Tommy Tuberville coaching Texas Tech, so it's not the same kind of shootout team you saw in past years.
OUTBACK BOWL: Florida vs. Penn State
The team side hasn't moved, with Florida still at -7. Most sharps see that as the right number based on my discussions with them. I think they'd fade any line move from the public either way. If squares take Florida to 7.5, sharps will take Joe Paterno and the dog. If the line comes down to 6.5, Florida will be seen as a value favorite. These are big name teams, so there's definitely a chance the public will step in late in the week (maybe Friday Night though because it's a 10 a.m. kickoff in Vegas). The total is up from 47 to 48.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL: Alabama vs. Michigan State
Alabama still gets a lot of respect in the line even though they lost a few games in the SEC. The Tide opened at -11 here. Sharps who liked the dog figured it wouldn't go any higher than that (squares are less likely to bet big favorites who they've watched lose more than once on TV). So, they jumped in and drove the number down to MSU +10. It sat there though, suggesting a limit to Sparty support. Alabama -9.5 would become more appealing to squares too because it's in single digits. The total is up to 52 from 50.5. The forecast for good weather may be encourage over bets from the totals guys.
GATOR BOWL: Mississippi State vs. Michigan
More Over money in a Florida-based bowl, as the total of 57 has been bet all the way up to 60. Michigan plays high scoring games because they have an explosive quarterback and a bad defense. Mississippi State's offense has improved under the new coach. The opener was just a bad number. Michigan +5 is getting a little support from sharps, with the line falling to +4.5. State hasn't proven they can be trusted as a favorite in a big game. Many of the old school sharps will fade a team like that without batting an eyelash.
ROSE BOWL: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Big support for TCU and the Over. Some were surprised when TCU opened as the favorite over a major conference champion like Wisconsin. But, that opener of TCU -1.5 was bet all the way up to TCU -3...and it stuck. There wasn't a big buyback on Wisconsin at the key number. Maybe that's still to come. It didn't happen right away though. The total is up from 56.5 to 58.5, suggesting that the sharper aspects of the market believe TCU is going to put up a lot of points on the Wisconsin defense. The original line suggested 29 scoreboard points for TCU...then sharps bet the Frogs and Over. I think we're going to see a ton of game day betting in this game. Many squares won't have recovered from their New Year's Eve partying to play the morning games. They'll stroll into the sportsbooks for this one. It's the second-most anticipated college game behind Auburn-Oregon. We'll see a HUGE handle here.
FIESTA BOWL: Oklahoma vs. Connecticut
Sportsbooks opened the game at a very high 16.5...and sharps hit the favorite anyway! Some of that may have been position-taking near the key number of 17. Some sharps figure the public will bet the blowout, and it's worth taking a shot at the middle on 17 (OU -16.5, UCONN +17.5 or more after the public bets, hoping the game ends something like 34-17, or 38-21). Sharps tend not to lay big numbers like this. And, honestly, it wasn't a lot of sharps who stepped in. Just enough to move the line. "Comment -
7.5 now at pinny. come on down to 7Comment -
Something is up if its free falling like that, prolly injured raider.Comment -
JR nice write up but u never even said who u r picking. anyone can make a write up now prove ur research. who r u pickingComment -
Texas Tech ended the season ranked 8th in the country in passing offense...which is actually the norm for them over the last couple of years. From '2002-2009, Tech has ranked #1, #1, #1, #1, #3, #1, #1, & #3 in passing Offense with a string of good passers: Kingsbury, Symons, Crumbie, Hodges, Graham, and now Potts. They finished with the 6th, 4th, 8th, 4th, 13th, 7th, 3rd, & 8th ranked team in scoring offense, this year they fell to 34th, scoring more than 35 pts just 3 times in lined games. QB Potts has thrown for 3,357 yds, 66%, and 31TD to just 9INTs (462 yds, 4 TDs vs Baylor) and Techs running game is 57 ypg better than LY (vs MichiganSt in the Alamo Bowl 41-31 for their first cover since 2004). They did hit a rough patch against Texas, Oklahoma State, & Oklahoma, but today sets up good for them.
Northwestern is playing in their 3rd straight bowl - having taken Missouri and Auburn to the last few minutes of the 4th quarter before losses (6 & 5 pt covers). They opened at 5-0 and were ranked 25th but that was it...ending the season at 7-5 with 1 win against an Illinois St team and 5 vs squads with a combined record of 17-43. Highlight of the season was the comeback win over Iowa (ranked 13th a the time) with QB Persa throwing for 2 TDs in the final 6:21 but he ruptured his Achilles following the final TD pass and that was it for Northwestern (Persa ended with 2,571 PYs, 76%, 15TD/4INT and 519 RYs (9 TDS) and 10th best rated QB in the nation). Northwestern finished out the season with 48-27 & 70-23 losses.
I know double digit bowl spreads are tough (line opened at 10 some places) but now that its down to 7.5 I think the Texas Tech Offense behind Potts is just too much for a Northwestern D that has been exposed and a lacking Northwestern O without Persa.
Texas Tech 45, Northwestern 20...just my $0.02Comment -
Originally posted by orangeheaven
not really. can mean big money is buying down to the key number. 8 and 9 are crap numbersComment -
'Originally posted by kiknit
nice write up, but are you taking Texas Tech because they've had a top passing team since 2002?Comment -
really need pinny to drop to 7 or TT is the playComment -
Thanks. Just some random stats to show where Tech has come from and that its no shocker Tech continues to have a good passing game behind Potts. Northwestern has been on a slide, especially given their last 2 games - granted Tech isnt the same powerhouse as Wisconsin...who was responsible for the 70-23 route of Northwestern.Originally posted by broadway6
Without Persa the Northwestern O just isnt the same and I think theyre gonna have a tough time putting up any points - or keeping up with the Texas Tech scoring behind Potts' passing game.Comment -
Originally posted by kiknit
you might be right.... if that line doesn't drop to 7 you are right.Comment -
Number dropped because it is cold 34 degrees and windy 15 mpg gusting to 20, so tougher on passing team like TT, dog is more attractive.
Everyone things that everything is rigged, etc, some huge conspiracy.
I liked TT if is was going to be a nice day, new NW QB is green and timid... without Persa they are pretty weak, no running game, poor "D". But with cold and wind, now I just like TT for a small play.Comment -
this is my take on this game - very brief write up sorry for the grammer and spelling mistakes.
nw run d is pourous. i mean. a few weeks to prepare for this game won't even help that awful D.
ANY RB will have a good day against them...
if nw plays the run / stacks line / tt will pass for quick routes and they dont necessarly need to put up bombs for big gains. The reason why most teams against nw dont pass on them for alot of attempts/yards is because they put up a crap load by running against them.
nw doesnt have there top qb and 2 of there productive rb's. if they cant establish any sort of balanced attack on O or there O line cant protect there less then experienced qb they will be blowen out. There D will have a hard time slowing down TT and if they rely on defensive scores they have no chance.
Line is dropping steady since early morning. saw TT at -9 a couple hours ago now my book has TT by -7.5
Im waiting to see how much lower it goes and then hopefully taking TT for -7 if I can. At -7 that is a steal and a
imo. The way the line has dropped in NW favour doesnt change my decision on taking TT....
GL either way!!!
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TT is the play... i don't know shit
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i like the over 62Comment -
I thought about taking NW last night. But I held out hoping for 10. It now down to 7. I snoozed, I lose...F me......
Good luck fellas.
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look at the NW injury reportComment -
Originally posted by Takethebooki
just passing along info to help dude...not mineComment -
I threw NW ML into a parlay since Dogs have been winning but I took TT up by 4.5 at HTComment -
Texas Tech is an easy pick. They are too good for northwestern and they will dominate themComment -
Texas Tech is an easy pick.Comment -
I am the Dude and I appreciate your work. The Dude also has 4 ferrets and they like your style as well. Good luck todayOriginally posted by JR007Comment -
hah 53 minutes into the game and u come on here and say TT is an easy pick. Of course they are now!Originally posted by BetWeather
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the big 10 forgot to show upComment -
Originally posted by PerfecTrader
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he was the 2nd poster in this thread. knew when the line didn't make it to 7 that northwestern was a loserOriginally posted by ridims
hah 53 minutes into the game and u come on here and say TT is an easy pick. Of course they are now!
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public all over wisky....line has not moved.....Comment -
bookmaker has tt team total(30) "juiced at -120 and wisky team total(27) juiced at -140.........IMO over is the bet in this gameComment
