Game 9 Independence Bowl GT- Air Force 12/27
Are college football games too long? Maybe, but while Tulsa-Hawaii may take 4 hours to play the sponsor’s of this game may feel cheated on their commercial breaks. GT and AF COMBINED to throw 299 passes in 24 games. Hawaii throws that much in 5 games! The two ran 1395 times when sacks were removed from the equation. Get ready for a read-option run fest as two very similar teams square off in this one.
GT Analysis: GT ran 5.65/328 and allowed 4.8/175. They allowed 61.5% through the air but can’t throw very well, as their QB’s hit 38%. GT allowed 24 run TD’s but did have a +5:12 time of possession edge. Allen ran 5.6-6 with 1225 run yards. Smith added 476 yards at nearly 10 per carry. Nesbitt was hurt in game #10 and his status is unclear. There’s likely a slight drop off in run option production with the back-up due to experience, but the pass game will not suffer. GT had a modest 17-15 sack ratio. Their PK hit 15-17, and a solid 8-10 from 40 yards and beyond.
AF Analysis: AF ran 5.5/330.5 and allowed 4.75/198. They can pass some at 53% and the pass D% was better than expected at 55.7%. AF allowed 23 run TD’s and did not own the time of possession edge that GT did. RB Clark ran 1001-5.4-5. Their QB ran 769-5.4 and 15 TD’s. Others also contributed. AF had an even more modest 13-5 sack ratio. GT has a decided PK edge, as AF kickers hit 5-10, with no kick over 30 yards! AF on paper will limit GT’s modest return game as they have shown good coverage.
Projected run #’s: Given this is a true run-run match-up, let’s analyze the run games for both teams. GT ran 63-374 on North Carolina, 49-242 on the good run D of Clemson, 59-308 on Miami’s run D and a stout 77-411 with the back-up QB vs. Georgia. All but 1 outing in ’10 was 4.95 or > with their worse effort 48-209. AF allowed 34-221 to BYU, 50-209 to option team Navy in a solid effort, 51-378 to powerful TCU, just 51-184 to Utah, and 50-245 to option team Army. Wyoming and Colorado State far exceeded their #’s by combining for 84-469. One dimensional teams like GT were held down a bit, but GT has the ability to hit 57-295 here. For the AF offense, They ran 285 or > in 9-12. They ran 63-353 at Oklahoma, 53-293 vs. Navy, 62-312 on a decent SD St. team, 41-185 (4.5) at TCU, 41-210 (5.1) vs. Utah and vs. fellow option team Army ran 53-285. In 8-12 games GT allowed between 125-163 yards, but just 4 of those games was 4.0 or <. Clemson ran 38-240 and VT “just” 40-199. AF may go about 54-289 here, with the potential of >. It sure looks like neither will be held down if weather conditions are good.
Other stats, trends and game keys: Our analysis showed AF with > run potential but GT is the rush pick by 1, which is close to the projected even stats. GT is 11-3 as a rush pick and going vs. AF when not a rush pick is an 18-10 ATS proposition. It’s hard to know how the back-up QB factors into this. AF is the point stat pick. GT h keys are to use their decided kicking edge to their advantage, limit offensive penalties which sometimes creep up, and prevent AF’s decent % QB from making a big pass play. Given GT’s 61+% pass D, that area is a must watch. AF keys are to share time of possession, avoid a big mistake in the kicking game, and force GT to throw. That is not easy, but would be a huge AF +.
Pick: In bad weather AF gets the edge (QB passing, discipline) unless the kicking game becomes that much more critical. In regular weather conditions GT may hold the keys with a bigger OL, as long as they avoid mistakes and penalties. The QB situation is not easy for us to factor in, but even if Nesbitt plays he may not be 100%. The line is AF -2.5. Our lean is GT, which we will play at +3, and will probably play anyway as long as the weather is decent. We say this because Paul Johnson will be out for bowl redemption after BB losses to LSU and Iowa (thanks in both!). He’s always got his critics about the option in big games, but this time its option vs. option and the win shot is there. Interesting though that this time GT is a dog and the other 2 they were favored! GT in decent weather 27-24.
Are college football games too long? Maybe, but while Tulsa-Hawaii may take 4 hours to play the sponsor’s of this game may feel cheated on their commercial breaks. GT and AF COMBINED to throw 299 passes in 24 games. Hawaii throws that much in 5 games! The two ran 1395 times when sacks were removed from the equation. Get ready for a read-option run fest as two very similar teams square off in this one.
GT Analysis: GT ran 5.65/328 and allowed 4.8/175. They allowed 61.5% through the air but can’t throw very well, as their QB’s hit 38%. GT allowed 24 run TD’s but did have a +5:12 time of possession edge. Allen ran 5.6-6 with 1225 run yards. Smith added 476 yards at nearly 10 per carry. Nesbitt was hurt in game #10 and his status is unclear. There’s likely a slight drop off in run option production with the back-up due to experience, but the pass game will not suffer. GT had a modest 17-15 sack ratio. Their PK hit 15-17, and a solid 8-10 from 40 yards and beyond.
AF Analysis: AF ran 5.5/330.5 and allowed 4.75/198. They can pass some at 53% and the pass D% was better than expected at 55.7%. AF allowed 23 run TD’s and did not own the time of possession edge that GT did. RB Clark ran 1001-5.4-5. Their QB ran 769-5.4 and 15 TD’s. Others also contributed. AF had an even more modest 13-5 sack ratio. GT has a decided PK edge, as AF kickers hit 5-10, with no kick over 30 yards! AF on paper will limit GT’s modest return game as they have shown good coverage.
Projected run #’s: Given this is a true run-run match-up, let’s analyze the run games for both teams. GT ran 63-374 on North Carolina, 49-242 on the good run D of Clemson, 59-308 on Miami’s run D and a stout 77-411 with the back-up QB vs. Georgia. All but 1 outing in ’10 was 4.95 or > with their worse effort 48-209. AF allowed 34-221 to BYU, 50-209 to option team Navy in a solid effort, 51-378 to powerful TCU, just 51-184 to Utah, and 50-245 to option team Army. Wyoming and Colorado State far exceeded their #’s by combining for 84-469. One dimensional teams like GT were held down a bit, but GT has the ability to hit 57-295 here. For the AF offense, They ran 285 or > in 9-12. They ran 63-353 at Oklahoma, 53-293 vs. Navy, 62-312 on a decent SD St. team, 41-185 (4.5) at TCU, 41-210 (5.1) vs. Utah and vs. fellow option team Army ran 53-285. In 8-12 games GT allowed between 125-163 yards, but just 4 of those games was 4.0 or <. Clemson ran 38-240 and VT “just” 40-199. AF may go about 54-289 here, with the potential of >. It sure looks like neither will be held down if weather conditions are good.
Other stats, trends and game keys: Our analysis showed AF with > run potential but GT is the rush pick by 1, which is close to the projected even stats. GT is 11-3 as a rush pick and going vs. AF when not a rush pick is an 18-10 ATS proposition. It’s hard to know how the back-up QB factors into this. AF is the point stat pick. GT h keys are to use their decided kicking edge to their advantage, limit offensive penalties which sometimes creep up, and prevent AF’s decent % QB from making a big pass play. Given GT’s 61+% pass D, that area is a must watch. AF keys are to share time of possession, avoid a big mistake in the kicking game, and force GT to throw. That is not easy, but would be a huge AF +.
Pick: In bad weather AF gets the edge (QB passing, discipline) unless the kicking game becomes that much more critical. In regular weather conditions GT may hold the keys with a bigger OL, as long as they avoid mistakes and penalties. The QB situation is not easy for us to factor in, but even if Nesbitt plays he may not be 100%. The line is AF -2.5. Our lean is GT, which we will play at +3, and will probably play anyway as long as the weather is decent. We say this because Paul Johnson will be out for bowl redemption after BB losses to LSU and Iowa (thanks in both!). He’s always got his critics about the option in big games, but this time its option vs. option and the win shot is there. Interesting though that this time GT is a dog and the other 2 they were favored! GT in decent weather 27-24.