Game 16 Pinstripe Bowl Kansas State – Syracuse 12/30
New York, New York. Bill Snyder’s team returns to bowl status with a varied offense but a sub-par defense. Syracuse has a short trip but it’s been a long road back to this point. They had their ups and downs, winning outright 3 times on the road as 6++ point dogs, but losing SU 3 times at home as a favorite. So here we are, hoping for a good game under non-blizzard conditions.
K St Analysis: Bill Snyder teams consistently run well and this edition ran 4.9/212.5 behind workhorse RB Thomas and his 1495-5.4-16. Their QB also added 9 TD’s and can pass better than previous K St QB’s, going 64% with a 12-7 ratio. K St averaged 33.5 in all games but 23 vs. 5 bowl teams. The Orange run D is better than many on K St’s schedule so yards will not be automatic. K St ran 44-206 at Missouri and passed 15-26-1. Both of these figures are nice goals to shoot for here. The most amazing stat for the Wildcats is on the run D. Amazingly, it was the WORST of any bowl team at 6.25/241. Kansas was the only team held down. UCF, a comparable run team to the Orange, ran 51-252. 8 teams ran for an even better average. This is quite troublesome. The pass D% was 55, on K St projections. Syracuse is an average at best pass type who needs run success to deliver here. We don’t really expect >55% here, and 50+% would seem about right. K St had a lousy 18-30 sack ratio. Their PK hit 8-10. The 3rd down offense is good but the 3rd down D is not. They allowed 28.5 points, and 34 to bowl teams.
Syracuse Analysis: The run O moved up a bit in year two of this regime, hitting nearly 4.3 but just for 144 yards. Carter ran 1031-5.1-7. Bailey ran 5-4-4.7-2. We’re a bit surprised at the low # of rush TD’s but this is hardly a dynamic offense. The big question is do they have to be dynamic vs. this kind of run D? The Orange never hit 200 yards vs. BCS teams but we project a greater run emphasis (assuming decent weather conditions), at 44-222. The QB hit 56% with a more than decent 16-8 ratio. 3 or 4 WR’s shared the load. 5-12 outings were 60-63%. 6 more outings were between 52-55.5%. Only WV stopped them. We expect between 50-55% here. The Syracuse run D could not repeat its 3.45/117 turnaround of ’09 but still was decent at 3.9+/148. K St should not have a problem exceeding 4.0 and challenging for 5.0, but the Orange must slow them down and win the rush battle. The Syracuse pass D% was fine, but K St’s QB is careful and accurate and 60^ would not surprise us. Still, he threw for just 12 TD’s so Syracuse needs to be able to keep the WR’s out of the end zone. Syracuse is certainly not a high scoring team. They averaged just 21 in all game and 14 vs. 7 bowl teams. 20 was the most they scored vs. bowlers. The point D was 18, and 25 vs. bowlers. Passing helped score points vs. the Orange. Syracuse also had a – sack ratio, at 26-31. Their PK was 17-18, hitting 5 of 6 from 40-49 yards!
Other stats, trends and game keys: Despite the PK edge K St has other special team edges with a 15-0 touchback margin and the better KR by far! Syracuse had a poor time of possession # that they hope will change vs. this run D. Syracuse is the rush pick in a 50% category (7-5 data for these teams in ’10). K St keys are to exploit the KR edge, strike a nice run-pass balance and stack the run. Syracuse keys are to deliver a knockout blow to this porous run D, put pressure on K St’s QB in passing downs and do not waste scoring opportunities.
Pick: We sure wish the rush category meant more, as Syracuse has a golden opportunity here. Clearly K St has a KR edge that could be a game changer, but teams with this type of run D seldom win (ask Fresno as a DD favorite last year, plus UCLA way back, etc.). K St allowed 30 sacks so any defensive struggle favors the Orange. Assuming they do their part in time of possession and do NOT give up a huge play this is Syracuse’s ball game. We’ll check the weather but 3*** Syracuse 26-20.
New York, New York. Bill Snyder’s team returns to bowl status with a varied offense but a sub-par defense. Syracuse has a short trip but it’s been a long road back to this point. They had their ups and downs, winning outright 3 times on the road as 6++ point dogs, but losing SU 3 times at home as a favorite. So here we are, hoping for a good game under non-blizzard conditions.
K St Analysis: Bill Snyder teams consistently run well and this edition ran 4.9/212.5 behind workhorse RB Thomas and his 1495-5.4-16. Their QB also added 9 TD’s and can pass better than previous K St QB’s, going 64% with a 12-7 ratio. K St averaged 33.5 in all games but 23 vs. 5 bowl teams. The Orange run D is better than many on K St’s schedule so yards will not be automatic. K St ran 44-206 at Missouri and passed 15-26-1. Both of these figures are nice goals to shoot for here. The most amazing stat for the Wildcats is on the run D. Amazingly, it was the WORST of any bowl team at 6.25/241. Kansas was the only team held down. UCF, a comparable run team to the Orange, ran 51-252. 8 teams ran for an even better average. This is quite troublesome. The pass D% was 55, on K St projections. Syracuse is an average at best pass type who needs run success to deliver here. We don’t really expect >55% here, and 50+% would seem about right. K St had a lousy 18-30 sack ratio. Their PK hit 8-10. The 3rd down offense is good but the 3rd down D is not. They allowed 28.5 points, and 34 to bowl teams.
Syracuse Analysis: The run O moved up a bit in year two of this regime, hitting nearly 4.3 but just for 144 yards. Carter ran 1031-5.1-7. Bailey ran 5-4-4.7-2. We’re a bit surprised at the low # of rush TD’s but this is hardly a dynamic offense. The big question is do they have to be dynamic vs. this kind of run D? The Orange never hit 200 yards vs. BCS teams but we project a greater run emphasis (assuming decent weather conditions), at 44-222. The QB hit 56% with a more than decent 16-8 ratio. 3 or 4 WR’s shared the load. 5-12 outings were 60-63%. 6 more outings were between 52-55.5%. Only WV stopped them. We expect between 50-55% here. The Syracuse run D could not repeat its 3.45/117 turnaround of ’09 but still was decent at 3.9+/148. K St should not have a problem exceeding 4.0 and challenging for 5.0, but the Orange must slow them down and win the rush battle. The Syracuse pass D% was fine, but K St’s QB is careful and accurate and 60^ would not surprise us. Still, he threw for just 12 TD’s so Syracuse needs to be able to keep the WR’s out of the end zone. Syracuse is certainly not a high scoring team. They averaged just 21 in all game and 14 vs. 7 bowl teams. 20 was the most they scored vs. bowlers. The point D was 18, and 25 vs. bowlers. Passing helped score points vs. the Orange. Syracuse also had a – sack ratio, at 26-31. Their PK was 17-18, hitting 5 of 6 from 40-49 yards!
Other stats, trends and game keys: Despite the PK edge K St has other special team edges with a 15-0 touchback margin and the better KR by far! Syracuse had a poor time of possession # that they hope will change vs. this run D. Syracuse is the rush pick in a 50% category (7-5 data for these teams in ’10). K St keys are to exploit the KR edge, strike a nice run-pass balance and stack the run. Syracuse keys are to deliver a knockout blow to this porous run D, put pressure on K St’s QB in passing downs and do not waste scoring opportunities.
Pick: We sure wish the rush category meant more, as Syracuse has a golden opportunity here. Clearly K St has a KR edge that could be a game changer, but teams with this type of run D seldom win (ask Fresno as a DD favorite last year, plus UCLA way back, etc.). K St allowed 30 sacks so any defensive struggle favors the Orange. Assuming they do their part in time of possession and do NOT give up a huge play this is Syracuse’s ball game. We’ll check the weather but 3*** Syracuse 26-20.