Why is San Diego St only -3?

[DrSize]

Opened at -4.5 and is now down to -3? Why? I don't see Navy being that close here. SD State had a much more difficult schedule and played some great teams tight (Lost by 5 to TCU, 4 to Utah, 3 to Missouri)

I know one of the big things when capping you can't compare teams that are playing each other to previous games they had that season against the same teams BUT SD STate beat AF by 2 and Navy lost to them by 8. Navy ranks as one of the top rush Os but they have had a very easy schedule against some of the weakest Ds in the country. I just don't see Navy winning this game, SD State has had time to rest and heal after playing some very tough games and they are going to come out to play.

I know a lot of trends/stats etc has Navy covering this game but I am not huge at buying into "Navy is 14-0 ATS coming off a SU win of >10 pts against a military rival" etc.... I see SD State being the better team here and I see them winning by at least a FG but probably a TD or more. I would have thought the line to be at -5 to -6

Someone tell me how they see Navy covering 3 pts here and why the line has dropped from -4.5 to -3.... Looking for help here because I want to pound SD State at -3 but am hesitant because of line movement, someone knows something I don't.....

[firehoyt]

I tend to agree with you. I just don't see Navy covering. I'd guess the line would be 6-7 but what do I know?! I've got SDS -3 in a parlay but might put some on the ML too. Helpful hint that has done well for me so far, check the first quarter total. If it's 14 or less, I usually make a play on it. Most of these teams (at least one of them out of the two) come out ready to play and usually jump to a big lead. I've hit on two CFB 1Q Overs already and it paid off in the Vikings/Bears game that was 6.5 1Q.

[DrSize]

Navy's last 5 bowl games they are 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS. In their two wins they won by +20 pts and only one of their losses was by >3 pts

2009 Texas Navy 35, Missouri 13 (Navy +6)
2008 EagleBank Wake Forest 29, Navy 19 (Navy +3)
2007 Poinsettia Utah 35, Navy 32 (Navy +8)
2006 Meineke Boston College 25, Navy 24 (Navy +8)
2005 Poinsettia Navy 51, Colorado State 30



I still think SDSU wins this one but I may buy .5 pt and pay the juice in case it is a similar outcome to the Navy/Utah bowl game in 07 or close like the game last night. Covers me if it goes into OT or comes down to a game winning FG and I can get -2.5 @ -125 right now. Navy's only chance is Dobbs having a monster game

[oakas]

I really think that SDSU rolls here.

[Pride>UFC]

my prediction: 34-23 SDSU...who has Navy beaten this year? WHO??????????????????

WHO?
WHO?
WHO?

SDSU at least kept it close vs Missou, TCU, Utah, and BYU