Good luck everyone!
Game #2 Humanitarian Bowl No. Illinois – Fresno St. 12/18
No. Illinois was by far the best MAC team in ’10, even counting the surprising title game loss. They had no major weakness and rolled up scores in conference. Uncertainty exists now, as the team loses its HC and has little time to prepare for an early bowl game. Fresno is a fixture in the bowl picture and as usual, a solid team who still finds a way to lose a couple of games it should not lose. The defense was certainly better this time around but far from perfect. Game #2 is a challenging one played on the cold blue turf.
NIU ran 6.2/265 on offense with Spann running 1293-5.3-20 TD’s. Their QB ran 6.0 for another 5 TD’s. Fresno was horrible in ’09 (>6 on defense) but allows 4.4/155 now. This will be a severe test IF the weather is not a factor. NIU’s experienced QB threw for nearly 65% with a 20-5 ratio but his wideouts are not spectacular. Fresno usually does a decent job on pass D. NIU has only a 60% PK but has a solid kickoff guy. Their Punter is not great. The sack ratio was 24-13.
Fresno ran just 4.1 which is low for them, but injured RB Rouse ran 1097-5.7-8 TD’s. He may be back for the bowl game. If not, the rest of the RB’s are not as good. Fresno has a very capable QB who also limits turnovers. His WR’s are slightly better than NIU’s. Fresno has the clear PK edge but has allowed more points to bowl teams. NIU can slow down the run vs. most and certainly could here, but vs. true power teams (Illinois, USF in last year’s bowl game) they failed vs. the run. The pass D% is equal to Fresno’s, but has probably faced a bit weaker QB competition.
Other stats, trends and game keys: NIU is +10 in turnovers, while Fresno fumbles too much and is -10 overall in turnovers. Fresno’s coverage units have been suspect, but NIU does not feature a top threat here. Fresno has a +3:54 time of possession # yet is mediocre on 3rd downs. Fresno commits more penalties. NIU is the rush and point stat play in a small category with both teams currently receiving tier 3 status. NIU keys are to run well and defend the run well, not use the coaching situation as an excuse, and avoid sacks. Not noted above is Fresno’s 37 sacks, which could be the overall game key! Fresno’s keys include limiting turnovers, hoping Rouse is ready to go, and winning in special team play.
Pick: The dog is a perfect 9-0 in Fresno games, and that may include SU as well! That is NOT a factor here as the line opened NIU 3 but with all the coaching issues is now = or NIU -1. That makes NIU a clear power play, so if they can handle the coaching change(s) then this is the side to use. NIU has 21 seniors, a + now but of course a negative for ’11. Fresno is 2-0 SU in bowl games at this site. Coaching changes are not necessarily damaging as vs. the spread it has this has resulted in >50% wins, but the timing of this game may be a concern. Fresno returns to tier one status when they move to the Mountain West and we will welcome them with open arms with our current 34-5 ATS mark on their games (3-0 ’10). Game time decision for us, but most likely we will have NIU as a Power Play, with a bigger play possible if RB Rouse is out for Fresno. NIU 28-25.
Game #2 Humanitarian Bowl No. Illinois – Fresno St. 12/18
No. Illinois was by far the best MAC team in ’10, even counting the surprising title game loss. They had no major weakness and rolled up scores in conference. Uncertainty exists now, as the team loses its HC and has little time to prepare for an early bowl game. Fresno is a fixture in the bowl picture and as usual, a solid team who still finds a way to lose a couple of games it should not lose. The defense was certainly better this time around but far from perfect. Game #2 is a challenging one played on the cold blue turf.
NIU ran 6.2/265 on offense with Spann running 1293-5.3-20 TD’s. Their QB ran 6.0 for another 5 TD’s. Fresno was horrible in ’09 (>6 on defense) but allows 4.4/155 now. This will be a severe test IF the weather is not a factor. NIU’s experienced QB threw for nearly 65% with a 20-5 ratio but his wideouts are not spectacular. Fresno usually does a decent job on pass D. NIU has only a 60% PK but has a solid kickoff guy. Their Punter is not great. The sack ratio was 24-13.
Fresno ran just 4.1 which is low for them, but injured RB Rouse ran 1097-5.7-8 TD’s. He may be back for the bowl game. If not, the rest of the RB’s are not as good. Fresno has a very capable QB who also limits turnovers. His WR’s are slightly better than NIU’s. Fresno has the clear PK edge but has allowed more points to bowl teams. NIU can slow down the run vs. most and certainly could here, but vs. true power teams (Illinois, USF in last year’s bowl game) they failed vs. the run. The pass D% is equal to Fresno’s, but has probably faced a bit weaker QB competition.
Other stats, trends and game keys: NIU is +10 in turnovers, while Fresno fumbles too much and is -10 overall in turnovers. Fresno’s coverage units have been suspect, but NIU does not feature a top threat here. Fresno has a +3:54 time of possession # yet is mediocre on 3rd downs. Fresno commits more penalties. NIU is the rush and point stat play in a small category with both teams currently receiving tier 3 status. NIU keys are to run well and defend the run well, not use the coaching situation as an excuse, and avoid sacks. Not noted above is Fresno’s 37 sacks, which could be the overall game key! Fresno’s keys include limiting turnovers, hoping Rouse is ready to go, and winning in special team play.
Pick: The dog is a perfect 9-0 in Fresno games, and that may include SU as well! That is NOT a factor here as the line opened NIU 3 but with all the coaching issues is now = or NIU -1. That makes NIU a clear power play, so if they can handle the coaching change(s) then this is the side to use. NIU has 21 seniors, a + now but of course a negative for ’11. Fresno is 2-0 SU in bowl games at this site. Coaching changes are not necessarily damaging as vs. the spread it has this has resulted in >50% wins, but the timing of this game may be a concern. Fresno returns to tier one status when they move to the Mountain West and we will welcome them with open arms with our current 34-5 ATS mark on their games (3-0 ’10). Game time decision for us, but most likely we will have NIU as a Power Play, with a bigger play possible if RB Rouse is out for Fresno. NIU 28-25.
