TodaysLocks Weekend KICKOFF

jcook · 11-12-10, 04:43 PM

was on buffalo myself...gonna tail the rest...i hate giving so many pts, but i'm guessing boise wasnt that strong of a play in ur system since u didnt play them?

GL

supergo523 · 11-12-10, 04:44 PM

i've been following your posts for a few weeks, Lock. you've been doing well consistently (and consistently is the most important part). i don't expect anything to be different today and will tail your plays. BOL!

playr101 · 11-12-10, 04:44 PM

GL tonight

-playr101

TodaysLocks · 11-12-10, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by jcook

was on buffalo myself...gonna tail the rest...i hate giving so many pts, but i'm guessing boise wasnt that strong of a play in ur system since u didnt play them?

GL

Went back and forth w Boise. Too much info indicated they may only win by 26-33 points.

On the flip side, I didnt have enough ammo to support Idaho either...

jcook · 11-12-10, 05:05 PM

u may get to these tomorrow, but two lines that stand out to me...stanford - 4.5 and ark st - 12...any word on these?

GoggsViggs · 11-12-10, 05:37 PM

Agree bro. Buff is the pick

lvsportpro · 11-12-10, 07:13 PM

Tl, what was the angle for the buffalo game? just curious, thanks

MartinBlank · 11-12-10, 07:43 PM

Yeah, I want to hear this angle on Buffalo.

There wasn't one.

davepersaud · 11-12-10, 07:48 PM

**Go Against the Touts WINNER of the Night**

A lot of touts are on Ball St. tonight for a number of reasons. The main reasons are because of trends that show Buffalo losing like they have been of late. These trends are actually some of the same ones we used to pick Ohio over Buffalo last week!

The big one being Buffalo is 0-11 ATS when the Total is between 42-49 over the last few seasons. They are also 0-6 ATS after playing two straight conference games over the last three years.

Well as many of you know, I have my OWN system and use my OWN trends to handicap games. And I have an angle on tonight's game that NO TOUT I have seen has picked up on....

We are fading some of the big time touts tonight, and going with a VERY strong TodaysLocks system play:

Buffalo Bulls -3

I will share my angle on this game sometime after kickoff for reasons I'll explain later...

Please ....do share your angle.....lol

davepersaud · 11-12-10, 07:55 PM

**NHL - Boring for the Fans, Profitable for the Cappers, Game of the Night**[/SIZE][/U][/I][/B][/COLOR] Minnesota/Florida - UNDER 5.5 goals scored

GOOOALLL.......GOOOAAALLLL.....GOOOOOAAA LLLL!!!!!!! Oh wait, wrong sport.....haha.

MartinBlank · 11-12-10, 08:00 PM

There is no angle he can come up with.

Buffalo is ranked 116th in scoring offense, and they are 104th in total yards/game.

It doesn't make much sense to lay points on teams that can't move the ball, and turn it over as often as Buffalo does.

I am dying to hear what the angle was here. I don't see one.

Oh yeah, Buffalo has lost 4 in a row, and they have lost every single home game this year.

I just don't see the angle.

davepersaud · 11-12-10, 08:01 PM

GOOOAAALLLLLLLLLL......2-0 midway through the 1st!!!!!

davepersaud · 11-12-10, 08:05 PM

Todayslocks is a friggin joke.

jcook · 11-12-10, 08:11 PM

i hope he hits more so than to win money...to shut u up

davepersaud · 11-12-10, 08:21 PM

Goooalll 2-1 not even the end of the 1st. Pathetic.

lvsportpro · 11-12-10, 08:21 PM

actually, i think todaylocks is a great capper. I was just curious on the angle of the game.

TodaysLocks · 11-12-10, 08:27 PM

Hey guys ball st over the past 20 years has only won 1 game after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 games.

Looks like they will make it 2.

I never make up angles or trends.

If it doesn't hit, it doesn't hit.

Dave, you PMed me for the angle so quit trying to be a hardass...

MartinBlank · 11-12-10, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Hey guys ball st over the past 20 years has only won 1 game after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 games.

Looks like they will make it 2.

I never make up angles or trends.

If it doesn't hit, it doesn't hit.

Dave, you PMed me for the angle so quit trying to be a hardass...

Are you actually telling this board that you made this your play of the night based on some ridiculous statistical oddity you found?

For the record, your "angle" is also wrong. Ball State covered 3 weeks ago against Toledo----so they could not have lost 4 or 5 in a row ATS.

That is besides the point anyway.

What does that have to do with the actual game of football?

Here's the thing with this "Ball State over the past 20 years has only 1 game where they covered on a Friday Night in November with a Quarterback with the letter R in his name, and a running back who was born in December"------you ignore the actual matchup.

BUFFALO HAS NOT WON AT HOME ALL YEAR. PERIOD. Your bit of statistical "evidence" doesn't help Buffalo. Playing angles like that ignores how badly the team you are betting on is playing.

What has happened the last 20 years has no relevance to tonight. None. The kids playing in tonight's game weren't even born 20 years ago, more....Buffalo wasn't even a 1-A program 20 years ago----so that kind of angle means nothing.

Handicapping has more to do with matchups-----offense v. defense...young QBs versus good front 7's------good running backs against teams who can't run stop the run-----

MartinBlank · 11-12-10, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Hey guys ball st over the past 20 years has only won 1 game after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 games.

Looks like they will make it 2.

I never make up angles or trends.

If it doesn't hit, it doesn't hit.

Dave, you PMed me for the angle so quit trying to be a hardass...

I am not sure what you mean by this....but are you saying Ball State has not covered in 4 consecutive games?

Your own angle is wrong.

Ball State covered 3 weeks ago against Toledo.

Which would make the entire premise of your "angle"-----wrong.

jcook · 11-12-10, 08:54 PM

i think he meant in 4 of 5 weeks...regardless, martin where do u get ur research from...ive been looking for a few new sites to add to mine to get a better grip on the actual matchup

MartinBlank · 11-12-10, 09:14 PM

jcook.

I use Phil Steele's----tons of free info there.

Yahoo.

The NCAA.org is also a great source of stats-----

And individual conference websites are also great places.

I am all about free info. I don't pay for info.

TodaysLocks · 11-12-10, 09:53 PM

Martin please research me before making posts.

Here's how I work. I have an excel system that takes over 20 yrs of data into account among other things.

It simulates and gives me a percentage. If the percentage is high enough I check my database for trends that support my pick.

If they match up I make my selection. I have hit 65% of my picks doing this since 2004. I am profitable and post here just to help anyone out that doesn't wanna cap themselves.

The trend was haven't covered in 4 of last 5 or 4 or 5 of last 6. This backed up my system selection.

I don't win everytime. But 1 win and a ton of losses in 20 yrs backed up my pick with that trend. Sorry it was wrong but I can still go 2-1 for a profitable night.

If you ever want to know then trends from my database for any game I pick just ask and I'll be happy to share.

Good luck to you in the future. I'm not here to make enemies...

TodaysLocks · 11-12-10, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by davepersaud

Goooalll 2-1 not even the end of the 1st. Pathetic.

Dave, this is why you lose money, and I make money.

Out NHL Game of the Night cashes.

$$$

What's that sound....?

Just Dave inserting his foot in his mouth, that's all.

Thanks for the laughs you goof..

And quit PMing me for my Saturday card..

MartinBlank · 11-12-10, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Martin please research me before making posts.

Here's how I work. I have an excel system that takes over 20 yrs of data into account among other things.

It simulates and gives me a percentage. If the percentage is high enough I check my database for trends that support my pick.

If they match up I make my selection. I have hit 65% of my picks doing this since 2004. I am profitable and post here just to help anyone out that doesn't wanna cap themselves.

The trend was haven't covered in 4 of last 5 or 4 or 5 of last 6. This backed up my system selection.

I don't win everytime. But 1 win and a ton of losses in 20 yrs backed up my pick with that trend. Sorry it was wrong but I can still go 2-1 for a profitable night.

If you ever want to know then trends from my database for any game I pick just ask and I'll be happy to share.

Good luck to you in the future. I'm not here to make enemies...

I am not trying to piss you off. I am genuinely trying to understand this line of reasoning.

I am not a fan of trend betting-----because they never prove to be of any value.

I don't understand why you can't debate your selections. This is a board----maybe I am wrong, but I thought exchanging opinions would be something most of us are interested in.

But-----statistically speaking------whatever Ball State has done over 20 years-----is still irrelevant to this year's team. Flipping a coin 19 teams and getting heads each time-----doesn't mean anything relative to the 20th time you would flip the coin.

That is what I was trying to explain to you when you use obscure oddities like "Ball State hasn't covered when they fail to cover 4 of the previous 5 games"-----there are so many variables that make such a statistic irrelevant, I am surprised you don't see them. For one, and the most obvious----it doesn't account for who Ball State is playing....ever. It relies on the past, and doesn't address the "Now".

I have seen a lot of guys post here and tell us how "successful" they have been in the past, and how they decided to grace us with their knowledge for free----and that is all well and good.

What is your documented record here at SBR in college football?

Thanks

TodaysLocks · 11-12-10, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

I am not trying to piss you off. I am genuinely trying to understand this line of reasoning.

I am not a fan of trend betting-----because they never prove to be of any value.

I don't understand why you can't debate your selections. This is a board----maybe I am wrong, but I thought exchanging opinions would be something most of us are interested in.

But-----statistically speaking------whatever Ball State has done over 20 years-----is still irrelevant to this year's team. Flipping a coin 19 teams and getting heads each time-----doesn't mean anything relative to the 20th time you would flip the coin.

That is what I was trying to explain to you when you use obscure oddities like "Ball State hasn't covered when they fail to cover 4 of the previous 5 games"-----there are so many variables that make such a statistic irrelevant, I am surprised you don't see them. For one, and the most obvious----it doesn't account for who Ball State is playing....ever. It relies on the past, and doesn't address the "Now".

I have seen a lot of guys post here and tell us how "successful" they have been in the past, and how they decided to grace us with their knowledge for free----and that is all well and good.

What is your documented record here at SBR in college football?

Thanks

Hey man no worries I'm not pissed. You are right that trends mean nothing in tonights game.

However, history tends to repeat itself in strange ways. I would never play a trend out of the blue. But if it matches the pick I have already made, I use it.

For example, for some odd reason last weekend Iowa was like 0-22 ATS when being favored in November coming off a conference game it was favored in, after not covering for two weeks. Something weird like that, dont remember. I didnt make the play because I thought how obscure it was. But sure enough, Indiana covered and made them 0-23. You just cant make this stuff up. Life is mysterious in certain ways.

To reiterate, I agree with you 100% that trends of 20 years past mean nothing today...

But if I have a strong selection, and the trends match, thats when I pull the trigger. And it has worked well.

Tonight there were strong trends favoring both sides.....I chose the wrong one. You obviously made the right pick tonight...

I just use trends to reinforce my picks, thats all.

You'd have to track my documented record. I started really hot in CFB, and am now probably around 55%.

Good luck. As I speak the Knicks have blown their lead...

lvsportpro · 11-12-10, 10:32 PM

yea i had the knicks ml. crazy, they were up like 20 at one point

latinrus · 11-12-10, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by davepersaud

Goooalll 2-1 not even the end of the 1st. Pathetic.

who's pathetic now? 2-1 final score

one more time the haters around? what a joke!

Knicks just sh*t the bed in 4th quarter. There are two options or this crap is fixed or the teams are stupids and thought the game was just 3 quarters.

yesterday Lakers did it, today Hawks and Knicks having advantage till 3rd quarter and then just blowing out everythin! Unreal!

Nice call on the hockey TL!

Keep the work and don't listen to the haters!

lvsportpro · 11-12-10, 10:52 PM

todayslocks, have you ever tracked first half/second half type bets? For instance, when your trends really favor a team like the knicks -- betting the knicks first half , if they win , leave it alone, and if they lose, double up on second half. Just an idea, but not sure how often it would work. Just seems it work on at least one half most of the time.But, I could be totally off on this, not sure.

TodaysLocks · 11-12-10, 10:53 PM

went big on boise -14.5 in 2nd half and also a bit on the over.

this is NOT a system play. just a personal hunch to make the rest of the night fun.

just wanted to chat with anyone else whos playing..

playr101 · 11-12-10, 10:56 PM

shit.. went 2H under 28

GL

-playr101

TodaysLocks · 11-12-10, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by lvsportpro

todayslocks, have you ever tracked first half/second half type bets? For instance, when your trends really favor a team like the knicks -- betting the knicks first half , if they win , leave it alone, and if they lose, double up on second half. Just an idea, but not sure how often it would work. Just seems it work on at least one half most of the time.But, I could be totally off on this, not sure.

Wow this is a unique concept. Gonna try it...

I'll let you know when I make a play.

Thanks for the idea...

gamemastere · 11-13-10, 12:32 AM

I see davepersaud disappeared, lol wat friggin joke

davepersaud · 11-13-10, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Dave, this is why you lose money, and I make money. Out NHL Game of the Night cashes. $$$ What's that sound....? Just Dave inserting his foot in his mouth, that's all. Thanks for the laughs you goof.. And quit PMing me for my Saturday card..

Dude, why the F would I PM you? YOU ARE A FKING LIAR. I barely can stand reading your dumbass posts and titles. You wannabe capper with your excel spreadsheet. You are damn LUCKY on the nhl game....you were probably pissing your skirt during the 1st intermission. That said, congratulations on pulling a rabbit out of your ass. Its better than your head that you typically pull out. Have a great night and I can't wait for your dumbass writeup tomorrow.

davepersaud · 11-13-10, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Martin please research me before making posts. Here's how I work. I have an excel system that takes over 20 yrs of data into account among other things. It simulates and gives me a percentage. If the percentage is high enough I check my database for trends that support my pick. If they match up I make my selection. I have hit 65% of my picks doing this since 2004. I am profitable and post here just to help anyone out that doesn't wanna cap themselves. The trend was haven't covered in 4 of last 5 or 4 or 5 of last 6. This backed up my system selection. I don't win everytime. But 1 win and a ton of losses in 20 yrs backed up my pick with that trend. Sorry it was wrong but I can still go 2-1 for a profitable night. If you ever want to know then trends from my database for any game I pick just ask and I'll be happy to share. Good luck to you in the future. I'm not here to make enemies...

but you didn't go 2-1, you went 1-2 for a losing night you dyslexic fool

TodaysLocks ***Weekend KICKOFF***

TodaysLocks Weekend KICKOFF