Whole Board is on Pitt

[BettingWizard]

Uconn ML it is

[homerbush]

I am on UCONN as well

[Ch3fDan]

I feel like Pitt has to show up one of these weeks, but they just don't.

[FR3SH like UgHH]

the stash is an idot.

under is the best play imo here.

[illriseupxnhx]

can someone once and for all please clarify the logic behind fading the public? In all honesty i need to know, cause what the christ is the logic behind lets say taking carolina +6 over new orleans just because 70 % of the public is on NO and you know know damn well the saints are gonna wint by atleast 18....why would this be a smart thing to do? or is it just some bullshit gimmick " the pros" use to justify taking the dog?

[WhyWhat55]

I want a response to the above as well.

[BettingWizard]

can someone once and for all please clarify the logic behind fading the public? In all honesty i need to know, cause what the christ is the logic behind lets say taking carolina +6 over new orleans just because 70 % of the public is on NO and you know know damn well the saints are gonna wint by atleast 18....why would this be a smart thing to do? or is it just some bullshit gimmick " the pros" use to justify taking the dog?

I'm just talking about this forum (and other forums sometimes) just fade the consensus and you will cash

[shawnjohn5]

Part of the thinking is that the line will move to a point where the value on the "other side" exceeds the value of playing the "public" side. Vegas isnt' stupid when they set these lines, and if the public pushes a line from say 4 to 6 or 7 the thought process says you're getting a free fg in a game vegas thinks should end up around 3 or 4... Not too mention joe public usually just takes the team with the better public image. I won a ton of money betting against the yankees this playoffs because most of my friends blindly took THE YANKEES without any research. I know posters in here might have a little better insight, but that's some of what i can think of.

[illriseupxnhx]

not to bust on you specifically but i hear it on here over and over with no reason, i really want to know why so that i may implement this flawless betting loop hole...as it stands it just seems to be some dumb " sharp money" lingo that these joey baggadonuts throw around with no explanation...im trying to learn here, not be a dick

[orangeman51]

can someone once and for all please clarify the logic behind fading the public? In all honesty i need to know, cause what the christ is the logic behind lets say taking carolina +6 over new orleans just because 70 % of the public is on NO and you know know damn well the saints are gonna wint by atleast 18....why would this be a smart thing to do? or is it just some bullshit gimmick " the pros" use to justify taking the dog?

It's not just about fading the public...it's watching how the line moves. The line opened at 6.5 and 71% of the public was on Pitt. You would expect the line to go up with so many people on Pitt, but it didn't...it dropped (this is called reverse line movement). What this means is that the 29% that were on UConn wagered more money than the 71% on Pitt. So which group do you want to go with...the 71% of bettors putting $50-$100 on the game or the 29% of bettors betting thousands on the game?

Also pay attention to when the line is moving...early line movements and late line movements are more significant than line movements in between because "smart" money usually gets in on the game when the line first opens or right before the game starts.

[HilltopTony]

It's not just about fading the public...it's watching how the line moves. The line opened at 6.5 and 71% of the public was on Pitt. You would expect the line to go up with so many people on Pitt, but it didn't...it dropped (this is called reverse line movement). What this means is that the 29% that were on UConn wagered more money than the 71% on Pitt. So which group do you want to go with...the 71% of bettors putting $50-$100 on the game or the 29% of bettors betting thousands on the game?

Also pay attention to when the line is moving...early line movements and late line movements are more significant than line movements in between because "smart" money usually gets in on the game when the line first opens or right before the game starts.

Right on the money!

[ebbearsfb1]

well if you tail the public long enough, you'll be out of money.... fade the public over the long term you'll become what vegas is

[emat]

can someone once and for all please clarify the logic behind fading the public? In all honesty i need to know, cause what the christ is the logic behind lets say taking carolina +6 over new orleans just because 70 % of the public is on NO and you know know damn well the saints are gonna wint by atleast 18....why would this be a smart thing to do? or is it just some bullshit gimmick " the pros" use to justify taking the dog?

If the public was right more times than not sportbooks would not exist. Perfect example is the Dallas Cowboys. Because they are "america's team" the public is almost always on the cowboys. Thus it inflates lines and if you look at their ATS record its below average for that very reason. Books have cleaned up on the Cowboys over the past few years because of Joe Public. Joe Public is still a very large part of the books take and also easily manipulated. I am not saying fading the public is always right. If the public was never right you would have bookies on every corner of the nation. More times than not though the public is not right. Thus, fading them in most cases is the right play.

[og4667]

public is right 50% of the time

[davepersaud]

It's not just about fading the public...it's watching how the line moves. The line opened at 6.5 and 71% of the public was on Pitt. You would expect the line to go up with so many people on Pitt, but it didn't...it dropped (this is called reverse line movement). What this means is that the 29% that were on UConn wagered more money than the 71% on Pitt. So which group do you want to go with...the 71% of bettors putting $50-$100 on the game or the 29% of bettors betting thousands on the game?

Also pay attention to when the line is moving...early line movements and late line movements are more significant than line movements in between because "smart" money usually gets in on the game when the line first opens or right before the game starts.

Great Post!

[orangeheaven]

Public is wrong 90% of the time.

[22dsnyd22]

i kinda want to go with public on this one..... can decide

[goallinebob]

public is wrong 90 % of the time,,,,,,,,

[illriseupxnhx]

thanks for the insight guys, i understand the whole concept of rlm, but to fade the public just for the sake of doing so is just a foolish method i think, and public movement and steam i know can move lines, but pertaining to the majority of games that heavy money rarely pushes or pulls a line 3 points a more these days...i know there are billy walters out there, but the betting public is not wrong nearly as much as some would have you believe, thanks again

[Richards]

Ya, just listen to the monday morning roundup from Legends on SBR TV, public gets lucky and cashes in on a few bets (if the info can be believed.)

My view, Pitt been playing well(-ish), but UCONN has some undeniable Mojo at home. Think I'm going to stay away....maybe a small Uconn bet.

[illriseupxnhx]

Ya, just listen to the monday morning roundup from Legends on SBR TV, public gets lucky and cashes in on a few bets (if the info can be believed.)

My view, Pitt been playing well(-ish), but UCONN has some undeniable Mojo at home. Think I'm going to stay away....maybe a small Uconn bet.

i know, and that goddamn mojo is the only thing that makes me hesitant, but as i dont weigh trends as heavily as statistics, i played Pitt....if that home trend proves true im gonna have to rework some things!

[BettingWizard]

[cyclonebell]

Nice hit...