Hey All- I'm thinking Airforce is a good early pick today to get it started right. What's your thoughts or other picks?
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army +6.5
army +220
army under.Comment -
Army +7 -125Comment -
Army +7Comment -
Agree with Army +7Comment -
Under 48 might be a play as well. Assigment football as the clock ticks. 2 top 10 rushing offences, 2 top 50 overall D's. GL...
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army +6.5
army +220
It has been a longtime since Army beat either Air Force or Navy. Their last win was a 27-24 decision over Air Force all the way back to the 2005-06 season. They were a +12.5 point underdog in that contest. The last 5 vs their 2 military rivals have been anything but pretty. The record shows Army has scored just 2 TD's in the 5 games, and have been outscored 140-20.
There are changes blowing in the wind, and the Army has suddenly grown up, and become a competitive football team. The two most noteworthy changes are they have an offense for the first time in 14 years. The second is they are no longer turning the ball over at an alarming rate. that is attributable to trent Steelman who has become very adept at running the triple option attack of the Black Knights.
let's see the proof behind that statement regarding Steelman:
Army doesn't throw the ball much, that isn't w hat they are about. Steelman however when he does throw, has! posted just 1 INT in his last 15 games. Those beore him didn't throw much either but they were intercepted 25 times in the previous 28 games. That is a major factor in what is happening this year at Army.
It doesn't end there. Steelman is the one that has to make the reads running the attack, and choose to carry, or pitch, and do it timely, and accurately. The Army has fumbled (not lost fumbles, but total fumbles). just 1.75 times a game over their last 15 games, while in their previous 27 games, that average was 3.
It isn't just the lost fumbles that stall drives for an offense, it is the fumbles, even recovered by your own team that assist in stalling a rive, especially when you have an offense with 0 margin for error, as the Black Knights have for over a decade.
ARMY DEFENSE:
Army has played a soft schedule (more on that later), but nevertheless has held 7 of their 8 opponents to 123 yards or less over land. These te ams both run the ball 80-85% of the time, and the difference here is Air Force has defended the pass better than they have the run, where they allow over 200 yards per game, right into the strength of what Army does.
ARMY OFFENSE:
Last year the Black Knights did what they have done for years, failed to move the ball consistently, turned it over too much, and scored 20 or more points just 3 times all season. This year Army has scored 20 or more in each of their 8 games. The last time an Army team scored 20+ in 8 consecutive games was back in 96-97 when they won the Commander&Chief Trophy. They won it beating Air Force as an underdog, and Navy as an underdog. Here is the part about their soft schedule. That same year Air Force had gone into South Bend and as a +21.5 point underdog, beat a good Notre Dame team 3 weeks prior to playing Army. How could Army beat Air Force would be what you would of heard? Why? Because going into the Air Force ga me Army had a schedule of teams played that looked like this:
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North Texas
Ohio, U.
Yale
Lafayette
Tulane
Duke
Rutgers
Look familiar? The bettors fallacy of "they haven't played anyone" or "they haven't beaten anyone" often ends them down the wrong path. It is assumed because they haven't played anyone, then they can't beat anyone. We see that week in and week out proven to be a major fallacy ignored by most gamblers. Value isn't found completely in a schedule, or the comfort of backing the better team, the pointspread is the great equalizer!
THIS HAS BEEN COMING AND IT HAS ARRIVED:
Army has been slowly, and under the radar been gaining on Air Force. The last 2 years Air Force has rushed 100 times vs Army for 302 yards, or 3.02 yards a carry. It is bvecause the Army defense has improved, and now they have an offense, and one that is diminishing mistakes to make the defense ean anything. Air Force has gained an average of 232.5 yards a game in the last 2 meetings vs Army.
Looking at the 5 years vs Army prior to the last 2 Air Force gained 1,651 yards on 310 carries for 5.33 yards a carry. There game total yards averaged 432.2. Things have been changing, not on the scoreboard as much as in the boxscore.
This is an Army offense that is averaging 30.4ppg. That is leaps and bounds beyond anything we hve seen from Army in nearly 15 years, as it is 7 points higher than any offense they have produced since 96-97. Their top offensive year as 23.6ppg.
RECENT ARMY OFFENSIVE RANK:
The Army offense has annually been a given to be at or near the bottom of all 20 NCAA teams:
RANK BY YEAR:
2009 117
2008 110
2007 117
2006 112
They have been at 110 or lower in 6 of the last 8 years, so they haven't had ny chance in these games, despte defensive strides over the past couple years, but now the offense has ma de dramatic strids as you can see.
ARMY WITH AN OFFEN! SE VS AIR FORCE:
Army has historically been ompletely overmatched vs the Air Force offense point scored per point scored. here is what I mean as an example and the significance it bears in the series. Last year Air Force averaged 28.2ppg while Army averaged 15.3ppg. The difference is 12.9ppg in favor of Air Force. They have for th most part held the advantage. Here is the difference. When Army has been within 8 points of the Air Force offense, as in the example above they are 4-1 ATS. Army has won just 2 of the last 16 meetings with Air Force. Both times they beat them, they were within 8 of Air Force offensively.
This year for the first time ever, they actually outscore Air Force!!
ARMY PREPERATION:
Army last played a meaningful game on October 16th. They had a bye and played VMI last week, a laydown game. You can bet they have spent 3 full weeks preparing for this game, as it is the first bonafide chance they hav e had in years to beat Air Force and/or Navy, and claim the Commander & Chief Trophy. The same can't be said for Air Force. The Falcons have played 10 straight weeks, and their last 3 games have been their 3 toughest, all losses to San Diego St, TCU, and Utah. That is a lot of spent energy and emotion, and 3 physical wars intensely battled, with no time off for 10 straight games. They already lost a key running back, but that won't be their biggest problem. yes, Army is a military Rivalry game, but having played myself in professional sports, rivalries where you have dominated an opponent just about every year for 2 decades, don't get the juices flowing anymore, but on the flip side, psychologically, if your Army, with a real belief, and confidence you can win, you better believe the juices will be flowing.
Like it or not, a lot of energy as left on the field for Air Force the last 3 weeks, playing with everything thy had, because Utah, and TCU are ranked in the top 5 of the BCS Polls. Those games get the juices going, it will! be very difficult for them this week, travelling across the country.
STATS:
Air Force is 18-41 ATs off a conference loss and 5-15 ATS off 2 straight conference losses.Comment -
And that is why you don't just follow someone and go with your gut. I saw this and then saw everyone else bashing it so I switched sides last 2 times me and LT were on diff sides I lost but the last two I gotComment
